Effect of Recession on the UK Clothing Sector - Literature review Example

?Effect of Recession on UK Clothing Sector Table of Contents Overview 3 Aims of the Study Research Objective 3 3 Literature Review 4 Impact of Recession on UK GDP 4 Direct and Indirect Impact of Recession on the Textile Industry 5 Effect of Recession on the Overall Clothing Sectors in UK 6 Effect of Recession on UK Lingerie Market 7 Effect of Recession on the Buyer Behaviour 7 Contrasting Views of the Authors 8 Effect of Recession on the Consumer Spending 9 Contrasting Views 11 Effect of Recession on the Value Clothing Sector 12 UK’s Clothing and Footwear Industry 12 UK Market for Cloth Manufacturing 14 References 16 Bibliography 20 Overview It was during the second quarter of 2008 when the UK economy went into recession. It led to decline in output of the economy as well as increase in the unemployment rate. There has been decline in the real output by 6.4 per cent. However, in the second quarter of 2010, it was apparent that GDP had grown by 1.9 percent. Not only the UK but also the developed countries throughout the world experienced reduction in the outputs (Bell & Blanchflower, 2010). The research paper aims at providing a thought upon the effects of recession on the UK clothing sector. It further tries to investigate the effect of recession on the buyer behaviour within the UK fashion clothing market. Aims of the Study / Research Objective Initially in this paper it has been intended to prove that the recession had really affected the overall UK economy and hence the affect on GDP will be demonstrated in this paper. The main objective of the study has been to understand the effect of the economic recession on buyer behaviour within the UK fashion clothing market. It has also been intended to analyse the impact of recession on the value clothing sector and upon the consumer spending. It will highlight the UK lingerie market and effect of recession on it. The direct and the indirect impact of recession on the textile industry will also be considered along with UK clothing and footwear sector. Therefore, the research question will be answered with the help of the literature review. It will make use of the already existing knowledge on the related topic in order to solve the problem and to arrive at appropriate research solution. Literature Review Impact of Recession on UK GDP According to Times Online (2009), the GDP can be defined as a measure of the goods and the services that is produced by the country. It also indicates the health of the nation’s economy. It was noted that between the months of October and December which was the final quarter of the year 2008, there was decline in the GDP by 1.5 percent. This figure was worst since the second quarter of 1980. There was a 0.6% decline between July and September of 2008. It was evident in the final quarter of the year 2008 that there was decline in the output in all sectors of the economy except agriculture by 4.6%. Therefore it is evident that because of the recession the GDP of the country was affected (Times Online, 2009). Geroski & Gregg (1997) had revealed in their study that it is believed by the economist and many people that recession are periods of waste and stagnation. The list of failed firms, derelict industrial sites makes it quite hard to believe that recession is part of natural functioning of the economy (Geroski & Gregg, 1997). Direct and Indirect Impact of Recession on the Textile Industry According to Thoburn (2010), there has been direct as well as indirect impact of the recession on the textile and the garments industries of Asia. The author further opines that the output of the non-garment textiles is also growing at a rapid pace and these uses if combined accounts for greater than ‘half of the world’s textile output’. Prior to the increase in Britain’s textile industrial production, the leading player in this sector has been Asia. The data that has been produced by the Eurostat agency of the European Union, the US Office of Textile and Apparel and Japan Customs Online clearly demonstrate the picture of what the textile and the garment sector were going through during recession. In terms of its impact on the T&G imports, the recession was evident in the EU later than in the United States. Compared to the year 2007, the year 2008 saw a rise in the total value of the imports of the garments into the EU-27 even though there was slight fall in the unit value. From January to April 2009, there was decline in the demand of import for the woven and the knit clothes in comparison to the same four months in the year 2008 in terms of quantity. However, this has been covered with the rise in the unit value. The rise in the unit value may be because of the ‘exchange rate movements’ rather than the changes in the price in terms of the Euros where the imports of garments are denominated in US Dollars. In the first four month of 2009, the value of Euro had deflated against the Dollars in comparison to the same period in 2008. Before the recession Turkey had been mounting its exports to the EU-27. It can be understood that the negative affect on the textiles reflects the success of the Asian competition in the garment sector reducing the demand for the inputs into EU garment production. According to the information on sales of the retail garment in the United States and Europe, it can be assumed that the recession was not over by the spring of 2009. The reports claimed that there would be decline in the European markets for the garments by approximately 5% in the year of 2009. The impact of the recession has been different in several parts of the retail market for the textile and the garment sectors. For instance, in the UK market, it was indicated by one of the buyers that the younger women seemed to have hardly abridged their purchases while older women have done so. The supermarkets of the UK and Europe had developed sales of the garment and its sourcing in Asia (Thoburn, 2010). Effect of Recession on the Overall Clothing Sectors in UK According to Angus (2010), the term recession can be interpreted as two consecutive quarters experiencing negative growth. Majority of the nations experienced recession in the end of 2008. It was stated during the recession period that the stylish Philip Pelusi brought in two designers’ shows through which he could help his client to save money while choosing the clothes to wear. This was the common attitude of the people at the times of recession not only in the clothing industry but also in the consumption as a whole. During the recession period the consumers wanted to save their money as much as possible. The reason behind this was that the income of the people usually fell which resulted to the reduction in the demand of the consumers for the goods and services and people also had lost confidence due to high unemployment. According to the author, high rate of unemployment was one of the characteristics of the recession. All the sectors of the economy were affected by the recession and it was evident in the form of cut in the employment level. The firms also had to reduce their cost to survive during this turmoil period (Angus, 2010). Effect of Recession on UK Lingerie Market According to the Research and Markets (2011), the United Kingdom’s lingerie market is made up of corsetry, hosiery and lingerie. It is evident that the market of the UK had seen incessant growth in the review period from 2006-2010. It performed well throughout the recession period and there had been new innovations and designs. Moreover, the consumers used the industry to purchase inexpensive clothes during the financial hardships. In the year 2010, the lingerie market was estimated to be ?2.93bn. Over the 5-year period in which the review was done it increased by 17.8%. In terms of value, the corsetry sector recorded the largest increase rising by 19.2% to ?1.16bn in the year 2010 (Research and Markets, 2011). Effect of Recession on the Buyer Behaviour Since the unemployment tends to rise in the period of recession the consumers are generally less willing to spend their money. This was evident in the UK clothing sector as well. Most of the consumers did not want to spend their money in the apparel sector during this turmoil period (Perner, 2008). According to Weekes (2004), a survey conducted in the UK on the young people tried to examine the amount of money that the consumers may reduce spending on the clothing sector prior to cutting expenses on other items in the economic recession. It also tends to examine the consumers attitude towards the debt and borrowing (Weekes, 2004). According to Carrigan & Pelsmacker (2009), the impact of recession was too offensive on the consumers as well as to the marketers. It was evident that even during the recession period when the discount retailers were thriving and moreover the consumers were trading down, large number of the socially conscious consumers was still exhibiting ethical consumption behaviour. Therefore, in this regards it can be suggested that the opportunities for the marketers exist in providing the consumers with the products that is able to bring value without compromising on any values either ethical or social (Carrigan & Pelsmacker, 2009). According to Koszewska (2010), in spite of the recession, in the year 2009 there had been tremendous improvement in the organic cotton sector. It was reported by the companies that there was extraordinary increase of their organic cotton programs because of which the adoption of the standards have been encouraged (Koszewska, 2010). Contrasting Views of the Authors The views of Perner and Weekes have been quite similar on the issues related to consumers’ buying behaviour. Both the authors had shown that during the period of recession the consumers tend to cut their spending on the apparel. However, Weekes had tried to introduce the concept of debt and borrowing in his literature. Now in comparison to the views of Perner and Weekes, the views of other two authors have been conflicting in regards to the consumer behaviour. At one point when the Carrigan & Pelsmacker tries to demonstrate that retailers have been thriving and the consumers have been trading down, the other author Koszewska tries to demonstrate that even during the recession period there had been tremendous growth in the organic cotton sector. Effect of Recession on the Consumer Spending According to Ayling (2011), even after the UK emerged from the recession in the year 2010, the consumers’ spending had been affected because the consumers had been more cautious and there had been government cuts. It was reported by the author that the time and recovery took time which was not even. The price pressure in the UK clothing sector has been evident in the form of soaring cotton, labour cost and VAT rise. The clothing supply chain could cut the cost to certain extent but it was expected that the year 2011 would see price increase. According to the report of Verdict, there had been rise in the price of the cotton by 223% and the wage inflation rate had been 38% in China in 2010, which added to the pressure from the rise in the Value Added Tax from 17.5% to 20%. This came into existence from the early January 2011. It was because of the trouble in the Middle East that has given rise to the increase in the price of the oil (Ayling, 2011). It was observed by Hall (2011), the statement of the retailer matters a lot since Primark has been the poster boy for years for the “fats fashion”, which is the end of clothing market. Primark business model depicts selling large volumes of the fashionable clothing at lower prices. In the recent years this model has been effectively serving the chains. It was evident that most of the retailers in the clothing sector were badly affected because of the recession whereas Primark became stronger. It was assumed by most of retailers that the low price and its younger customer base helped to make the clothing sector recession-proof (Hall, 2011). According to Skillset (corporate author) (2010), the Skillfast UK sector footprint has been employing 10000 people in Northern Ireland within 1800 workplaces. Among the sub-sectors boards, the textile and the apparel elements of the footprints account for the biggest number of employments, businesses and gross value added (GVA). It has been evident that there was large decline in the GVA from the manufacturing side of the sector between the year 2003 and 2007. The losses had levelled out from the year 2005 onwards which was evident in the form of growth that occurred before the recession hit. The GVA per head had increased from ?22,000 to ?35,000 in the manufacturing sector which indicated a movement to higher value manufacturing. The exports in textiles and apparel were also affected by the fall in the manufacturing output because the companies were adopting the technique of outsource production. However, the world clothing market that was outside the UK and the EU showed a sign of growth for Northern Ireland’s produced goods. The productivity and the employment in this sector had been affected by the recession. The structural changes in the Northern Irish fashion as well as textiles manufacturing base reflect that there has been decline in the GVA significantly since 2003. There was improvement in the productivity in the year 2006 whereas it was found that the year 2007 envisaged flat performance showing a certain amount of stability. This proves that the sector had begun to find a level for its manufacturing base prior to recession in the global economy. The impact of the recession has been quite hard in the Northern Irish economy as well as in the fashion and textiles sector. In order to understand the impact of recession in the Northern Ireland’s fashion and textile sector, usage of the number of key measures would be possible. The first measure is the index of production. This has shown a steep fall in the production within the Northern Ireland fashion and the textile sector since past two years. It was observed that the decline in the production had occurred at a greater rate in comparison to the entire manufacturing figure. The decline in value was 20% since the second quarter of 2007. However, it is worth mentioning that there was rise in the production in the first quarter of 2009 as all the manufacturing continued to decline at a rapid rate. The other measure that can be taken into account has been the value of the Northern Irish exports. The value of export from the Northern Ireland fashion and the textile market has been demonstrating a slight upward trend on a quarterly basis. The third quarter of 2009 demonstrated an increase in the value of the exports in comparison to any of the quarters excluding one since the year 2007. The contributing factor to this has been the textile yarn, made-up articles and fabrics. The third and the most important measure are the claimants by sought occupation in Northern Ireland. The claimants count is important since it demonstrated the sharp increase in the people who were looking for textiles and fashion related occupation at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 in the Northern Ireland. When compared with the export figure the claimant sought occupation rose in the beginning of 2009 and had remained persistently high till the end of 2009 (Skillset, 2010). Contrasting Views Hall and Skillset (corporate author) have been focusing upon the impact of recession on two retail players in the clothing sector namely the Primark and upon the Skillfast UK sector footprint whereas views of Ayling had been completely different. He has focused upon the impact of recession on consumers spending. Effect of Recession on the Value Clothing Sector According to the Architecture Books (corporate author) (2009), the value clothing sector of the UK has been benefited the most from the recession since consumers had approached their spending on the discretionary items with great caution. Even though according to the Verdict forecast there had been decline in the overall clothing sector by 0.6% in the year 2009, it was further estimated by the author that there would be increment in the value clothing sales by 5.0%. It was expected for the grocers to make gains in the year 2009 by increasing their share to 34.2 percent of value clothing market. It was believed further that the grocers would prove to be a threat to the value clothing specialist. The profits could be realised by improving the environment of the stores and by fully exploiting the multichannel capabilities (Architecture Books, 2009). UK’s Clothing and Footwear Industry According to Euromonitor (2009), in addition to the UK economy, the clothing and the footwear sectors were badly affected by the recession. The decline in the UK’s economy was evident since the mid-2008. However, it had stumbled badly in the year 2007 which reflected declining figures across the board. The recession was increased by shortage of the credits all over the world. Both the decline in the consumer’s disposable income and the shortage in the credit badly affected the thriving clothing market. It was further made evident that in the second half of 2008, the Pound that had been performing quite well went into freefall as the weaknesses of the UK economy became clear. Since the investors were deserting the Pound for more stable currencies, there was a negative impact on the buying power of the British clothing and footwear industry. It was because of the fact that the clothing and the footwear industry were experiencing continued radical price cuts and in the near future the clothing and the footwear market should increase the price in order to make the profits. However, there is danger that the price rise may drive away the customers still further. The price cuts and the weak performances in all the sectors revealed that the suppliers made huge losses in almost all the areas in the review period (2006-2010). During the recession period there was shift in the needs and demands of the consumers. Since there is high rate of unemployment, they prefer buying functional clothing and footwear and try to keep themselves away from the quality brands and clothing. This is apparent because of the declining credit position of most of the consumers of clothing and footwear sectors. The clothing that was considered as one of the parts of the lifestyle sector for the consumers, are reverting to buy clothes only when needed because of the effects of recession. Therefore, in this regard, the cheap retailers had been benefiting a lot since this attitude of the consumers feed through into the distribution channel. It was forecasted that the clothing and the footwear sector would decline in growth across the next two years as well because the UK recession continued till 2010. Even though it was agreed to the fact that the growth will return to the economy in 2010, it was not guaranteed that the results would be positive or the growth in this sector would improve until as early as 2013. This will depend upon the degree of speed and the extent to which the success returns back to the economy. It is worth mentioning that the clothing and the footwear sectors are similar to other retail sectors that depend upon the disposable income of the consumers and on the provision of credit to both the customers and the businesses. Another thing that is worth mentioning in this regards is that for both of these facilities to be made available in abundance, there is requirement of recovery in the banking sectors as well as the general economy. Therefore, it was forecasted that for these reasons there will be positive growth from 2011 in clothing sector (Euromonitor, 2009). UK Market for Cloth Manufacturing According to PRLog (2011), the UK market for manufacturing the clothes had been estimated at ?13.61bn as the manufacturers selling price in the year 2010. It was observed that there was 0.5% rise as compared to the year 2009 and 9.2% rise in comparison to the year 2006. However, in spite of the rising prices, there has been decline in the manufacturers’ sales since the year 2007. This is because of the fact that large amount of the imports were being shipped into the United Kingdom. There are two main sectors in the clothing market namely the menswear and the boys’ clothing as well as the women’s wear and the girls’ clothing. Since there has been rise in the price of the cotton recently, it is making it tough for the manufacturers and the retailers. Moreover, they had to favour this extra cost into the retail price of their goods and services. It had been forecasted that the problem will continue till 2011. Moreover, the retailers are expected to announce their plans to increase the price of their clothes. This will affect the market of cheap-clothes because the prices are expected to increase for the discount retailers. It can be expected that the UK clothing market may grow over the next five years since the consumers’ confidence is being restored after the global recession (PRLog, 2011). References Ayling, J., 2011. In The Money: Price Hikes to Worsen High Street Pain. Just-Style Home. [Online] Available at: http://www.just-style.com/analysis/price-hikes-to-worsen-high-street-pain_id110452.aspx [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Angus, B., 2010. Climate Change And The Economic Recession: Should Economist Be Concerned About The Climate Change? Norwich Economics Paper. [Online] Available at: https://www.uea.ac.uk/eco/essays/volume1/Angus_B [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Architecture Books, 2009. UK Value Clothing Retailers 2009- Aarkstore Enterprise. Scope. [Online] Available at: http://architecture-books.hopandshop.co.uk/2010/08/06/uk-value-clothing-retailers-2009-aarkstore-enterprise/ [Accessed March 03, 2010]. Bell, D. N. F. & Blanchflower, D. G., 2010. UK Unemployment in the Great Recession. Introduction. [Online] Available at: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~blnchflr/papers/Bell-Blanchflower.pdf [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Carrigan, M. & Pelsmacker, P. D., 2009. "Will Ethical Consumers Sustain Their Values in The Global Credit Crunch?", International Marketing Review, Vol. 26 Iss: 6, pp.674 – 687. Euromonitor, 2009. Clothing and Footwear in the United Kingdom. Clothing and Footwear. [Online] Available at: http://www.euromonitor.com/Clothing_and_Footwear_in_the_United_Kingdom [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Geroski, P. & Gregg, P., 1997. Coping With Recession: UK Company Performance in Adversity. Cambridge University Press. Hall, J., 2011. Primark's Warning Signals Blood On The High Street. Retail and Consumers. [Online] Available at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8352224/Primarks-warning-signals-blood-on-the-high-street.html [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Koszewska, M., 2010. “CSR Standards as a Significant Factor Differentiating Textile and Clothing Goods”, Fibres & Textiles in Eastern Europe. Vol. 18, No. 6 (83) Pp. 14-19. PRLog, 2011. “Clothing Manufacturing” Added To Reportbuyer.Com. For Immediate Release. [Online] Available at: http://www.prlog.org/11342011-clothing-manufacturing-added-to-reportbuyercom.html [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Perner, L., 2008. Introduction to Marketing. University of Southern California. [Online] Available at: http://www.consumerpsychologist.com/marketing_introduction.html [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Research and Markets, 2011. Research and Markets: Lingerie Market Report 2011. Business Wire. [Online] Available at: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110222006956/en/Research-Markets-Lingerie-Market-Report-2011 [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Skillset, 2010. Strategic Skills Assessment for the Fashion and Textiles Sector in Northern Ireland. Introduction to the Strategic Skills Assessment. [Online] Available at: http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CEwQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sscallianceni.org%2Fnmsruntime%2Fsaveasdialog.aspx%3FlID%3D114%26sID%3D82&rct=j&q=impact%20of%20receesion%20on%20the%20demand%20of%20clothing%20sector%20in%20UK%20site%3Aorg&ei=8jRvTc2vNtGGrAet48CHDw&usg=AFQjCNEbgLW1jZAKygZ_DwN41ePDjri3cQ&cad=rja [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Times Online, 2009. Recession: Sector-by-Sector Breakdown. The Sunday Times. [Online] Available at: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5572732.ece [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Thoburn, J., 2010. The Impact of World Recession on the Textile and Garment Industries of Asia. Introduction. [Online] Available at: http://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Publications/RSF_DPR/WP172009_Ebook.pdf [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Weekes, T., 2004. "Spending on Clothing and Attitudes to Debt in the UK", Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management, Vol. 8 Iss: 1, pp.113 – 122. Bibliography BBC News, 2001. UK Slipping Into Recession. Business. [Online] Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1440227.stm [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Bondy, T. & Talwar, V., 2011. “Through Thick and Thin: How Fair Trade Consumers Have Reacted To the Gobal Economic Recession”, Journal of Business Ethics. Easey, M., 2008. Fashion Marketing. John Wiley and Sons. Ferraro, C. & Sands, S., 2009. ‘Greentailing’: A Key to Thriving In the Recession? Abstract. [Online] Available at: http://www.duplication.net.au/ANZMAC09/papers/ANZMAC2009-052.pdf [Accessed March 14, 2011]. Johnson, G., 1988. “Rethinking Incrementalism”, Strategic Management Journal. Vol: 9, Iss: 1, Pp: 75-91. KeyNote, 2011. Protective Clothing & Equipment Market Report. Executive Summary. [Online] Available at: http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-intelligence/view/product/2286/protective-clothing-%26-equipment [Accessed March 03, 2011]. McGoldrick, P. J. & Et. Al, 2000. "High-Low Pricing: Audit Evidence And Consumer Preferences", Journal Of Product & Brand Management, Vol. 9 Iss: 5, pp.316 – 331. Retail Technology Review, 2009. Recession to Impact Retail Industry for another Year. News. [Online] Available at: http://www.retailtechnologyreview.com/absolutenm/templates/retail_general_news.aspx?articleid=581&zoneid=3 [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Verdict, 2010. Verdict Sectors Report. Research Center: Sector Reports. [Online] Available at: http://www.verdict.co.uk/reports_sector.htm [Accessed March 03, 2011]. Read More