Impact of Hyperinflation on Investors and Ordinary Citizens - Literature review Example

2. Literature Review 2 Introduction and Background Inflation is a general economic phenomenon that an economy experiences due to increase in price level over a certain period of time. Rochon and Vernengo (2001) defined inflation as continuous increase in the price of general goods and services. According to them, inflation up to a certain level is important for the economy in order to control the money supply within the economy. However, Mann and Ganßmann (2012) are of the opinion that whereas controlled inflation is considered to be general economic incident, occurrence of hyperinflation appears to be more critical for the financial system of the particular economy. According to Barbosa and Filho (2015), the situation of hyperinflation takes place when countries experience very high inflation, growing at an exponential rate. As such hyperinflation results in erosion of the real value of the domestic currency and rapid increment of the general price level of the goods and services of the concerned country, the financial system of the economy is largely hampered due such occurrences (Derman and Kaarhus, 2013). In the next segment, how the episode of hyperinflation affected the financial system as well as the individual investors of Zimbabwe will be analysed in the light of experts’ view. 2.2. Theoretical Framework 2.2.1. Reason behind Hyperinflation Before analysing the hyperinflation driven scenario in Zimbabwe, it is important to evaluate the theoretical aspects behind the occurrence of hyperinflation. According to Mello, Waisman and Zilberman (2015), the underlying reason behind hyperinflation to instigate may be attributed as continuously increasing level of price of goods and services without growth in the output of goods and services. According to them, such provision tends to create imbalances between the demand and supply of money, resulting consequent devaluation of the domestic currency in the international market, as compared any other to strong foreign currencies. As per the viewpoint of Mann and Ganßmann (2012), hyperinflation is highly correlated with issuance and circulation paper money as such type of money is capable of increasing money supply in the economy easily. However, the notion of Forrest (2014) regarding the occurrence of hyperinflation indicates that unsustainable interest expenses also give rise of such economic circumstances. More explicitly, if the government deficit in a country exceeds its total debt and the level of interest accumulation on such debt continues to increase at a faster rate as compared to the tax rate, the widened gap between interest expenses and income receipt tends to create the situation of hyperinflation. In such circumstances, the only alternative available to the monetary authority of the country is to increase money supply in the financial system of the country through printing of new money in order to pay the outstanding debt. As a result, the money supply within the economy increases rapidly without increasing the desired level of output of goods and services. Such provision further creates vicious circle of hyperinflation in the concerned country (Mello, Waisman, and Zilberman, 2015). Mankiw and Ball (2010) are of the opinion that regardless of the reason behind such initiative, when the monetary authority plans to print more paper money, the propensity of the country to encounter inflation tends to increase to a great extend. They have justified the reason behind this as the supply of paper notes increases in the economy as compared to the hard money such as silver and gold; therefore increasing the opportunity for reverting back to the hard currency. They have also highlighted the fact that in certain economies lack of corporate governance of the central banks, the commercial banks start functioning independently. However, the central bank still tries to restrict such banking activities through permitting only a few numbers of banks of banks to continue their convertibility on the ground of violating both the hard-core and absolute contracts and promises made by them to the government (Mello, Waisman and Zilberman, 2015). Such consideration tends to create alarming effect on the aggregate banking sector, largely reducing the supply of money into the economy. Such provision also instigates the condition of deflation that further ignites the deteriorating economic condition. Finally, Bauer (2013) has identified that many a times hyperinflation is also caused by the effect of certain negative supply shocks such as civil wars, breakdown of long- existing political framework, occurrence of natural disasters etc. as well. 2.2.2. Theories of Hyperinflation A large number of theories have been developed over a long period of time in order to justify the rationale behind initiation of hyperinflation and its effect on the affected country. Most of the economists and financial experts are of the opinion that as hyperinflation is an outcome of monetary turbulences within the country, it can be best explained through the theory of demand for money as well as velocity of money. As per the views of Zhao and Li (2015), rising demand for money tends to increase the money supply into the financial system of a country which in turn causes the hyperinflation and velocity of money reduces the credibility of the domestic currency; therefore, continuous devaluation of such domestic currency prompts the scenario of hyperinflation. Based on such hypothesis, hyperinflation can be explained through two distinct financial models viz. confidence model and monetary model. According to Martínez (2013), the confidence model is developed on the belief that the money issuing authority of the financial system of a country (government or central bank) will remain solvent; therefore, influencing people to liquidate their cash holdings on the ground of continually degrading values of the currency. In such circumstances, when the sellers realise the higher risk involvement in such currencies, they also tend to demand more premium on the original value of the currency. Such situation largely violates the confidence of the individual investors and damages their reliance on fiat currency. As fiat money is associated with future tax income, it also enhances the provision for disruption of the steady income of the government, thus exposing the country towards the situation of hyperinflation. Regarding the monetary model, research of Derman and Kaarhus (2013) have emphasis on the fact that the phenomenon of hyperinflation is a consequence of rapid monetary expansion. Monetary expansion takes place when the fiscal and monetary authority of a country becomes inefficient to control the amounting cost on the ground of warfare or any other similar incident. In such circumstances, the general investors and traders assume that the monetary and fiscal authority must be obligated for rapid currency expansion in order meet expenses in this field. Therefore, they tend to mark up prices in order to cover the expected decay in the value of their domestic currency. As a result, the money issuing authority also tends to accelerate the monetary expansion in order to cope up with the mark up price, creating the provision for devaluation of the currency further. Hence, such monetary expansion results in severe financial shock. Such financial shock, combined with government’s initiatives to reduce the public facilities in terms of pensions and wage rates tends to create hyperinflation in the country. 2.3. Economic and Political Factors affecting Hyperinflation In order to identify the effect of hyperinflation on Zimbabwe, it is important to analyse the nature and scope prevailed in the economy of Zimbabwe during the period of hyperinflation. As per the views of Ko and Morita (2015), though Zimbabwe has been showing outstanding performances in terms of its economic and financial expansion since 2008, during the period of post 1990s and 2000, the country had suffered from massive unemployment and accelerating price level of goods and services due to the occurrence of hyperinflation. According to the researchers, various political and economic factors pushed Zimbabwe to experience the situation of hyperinflation. 2.3.1. Redenomination of Domestic Currency Larochelle, Alwang and Taruvinga (2012) have attributed the initiative of the Zimbabwe government for redenomination of the domestic currency of Zimbabwe as one of the major economic reasons behind formation of hyper inflation. At the time of independence, Zimbabwean dollars were announced as the domestic currency for the country. However, as the denominations of such currencies were considerably small, it became difficult for the government to pay large bills. Therefore, the government planned to print and circulate paper money of larger denominations, consecutively in the years of 2006, 2007 and 2008. Such initiative of pumping new money into the economy enhanced the level of money supply and created the prerequisite for the country to experience inflation. In fact, according to Mangena, Tauringana and Chamisa (2011), the government and monetary authority of the economy completely neglected such provision of rising inflation and did not attempt to rectify the current fiscal and monetary policies for controlling inflation. In 2008, the condition further eroded when the central bank of Zimbabwe redenominated Z$10 billion to Z$10 billion and printed Z$21 trillion bill for paying off debt owed by International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund, 2010). Hence, according to Larochelle, Alwang and Taruvinga (2012), definitely such initiative of the government largely instigated the condition of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. 2.3.2. Faulty Government Policy regarding Foreign Currency Inclusion As per the research of McCormack (2015), in 2007, for the purpose of controlling the inflationary pressure, the Zimbabwe government restricted all the corporate and business houses from increasing the price of their goods and services anymore. In fact, any organization identified for increasing price level of their goods and services were subjected to arrest and charge huge penalty. On the other hand, at the end of 2008, the central bank of Zimbabwe initiated the multiple currency regime and licensed more than thousands of business organizations to deal in foreign currencies (Larochelle, Alwang and Taruvinga, 2012). In fact, many small scale business entities started dealing in foreign currencies without having any proper license. As a result, the ordinary citizens had to forgo their savings in Zimbabwean dollars and compelled to utilise their limited holdings in foreign currencies for daily transactions. Hence, the value of Zimbabwean dollars further deteriorated, ensuing severe hazards for general citizens due to concentration of hyperinflation. 2.2.3. Evolution of Black Market Moore, Kriger and Raftopoulos (2013) have defined black market as a officially controlled marketplace where trade and transfer of scarce commodities are made available at a very high price as compared to the original price of such commodities. During the inflation driven situation when the rate of inflation continued to fluctuate over a short time interval, the goods and services quoted in Zimbabwean dollars required price adjustments for several times per day. Moreover, due to the institution of multiple currency regime, it become required for the business entities to convert Zimbabwean dollars into foreign currencies in order to safeguard business from significant losses due to devaluation of domestic currency. According to Yang (2011), such condition pushed the wholesalers in the market to hoard bulk amount of commodities, including essentials such as breads and groceries into the black market. Such abrupt hoarding of goods and services into the black market compelled the ordinary citizen to avail goods, if possible, at a highly surged price from the black market. Increment in price level to such great extent without enhancement in production and manufacturing level widened the shortage of goods and services in the economy and the country became exposed to hyperinflation (Kadenge and Tafirei, 2015). 2.4. Accounting aspect of Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe The research of Hanke (2008) shows that how prevalence of accounting discrepancies and error in financial reporting in Zimbabwe during the post 90s period had dragged the country on the verge of hyperinflation. According to the report, due to the occurrence of global recession and financial crisis, the world economy as a whole was experiencing various challenges regarding risk management in the financial system, malpractices under the IFRS accounting system and impairment of financial instruments etc. Zimbabwe was not an exception. All such stipulations coupled with the impact of dollarization on financial reporting signify the accounting aspect behind the hyperinflation in the country. As per the views of Derman and Kaarhus (2013), in 2009 the decision of Zimbabwe government to adopt multi currency system and inclusion of US dollars, pound sterling etc under the same currency regime as preferred currencies made the situation more complex for the general investors and public transactions. Contrasting the view, Martínez (2013) came up with the opinion that rather than creating perplexity among the general investors, such multicurrency system brought much anticipated financial stability in Zimbabwe. The rationale behind the researcher was continuous devaluation of the domestic currency had made it incapable of holding strong position in the international currency market and financial system. However, Derman and Kaarhus (2013) raised the fact that serious accounting implications began to take place in Zimbabwe since the initiation of multi currency system which had become prominent in the year of 2009. The open trial balance of international trade as well as domestic businesses was exposed to serious imbalances due to involvement of transactional and translational risk. They further clarified that the situation of accounting imbalances through exemplifying that while preparing balance sheets of business, the accountants and financial experts were encountered by various issues regarding the exact way of translating Zimbabwean Dollar balance sheet into US dollars, the exchange rate that should be incorporated for translation purpose and many more. In fact, institutions following the calendar year as the financial year at the end of the month of December were exposed to the accounting challenges to the maximum as they had to transform their accounting system and consider 30th March as completion of the financial year. Such provision increased the financial reporting cost for such businesses to a great extent. Zhao and Li (2015) also supported the notion of Derman and Kaarhus (2013) by showing that the accountants in Zimbabwe were well- equipped with the accounting standard IAS 21 (Interim Financial Reporting). When the government changed the domestic currency system from Zimbabwean dollars to multiple currencies overnight, it posed real threat to the accountants and financial experts of the country in terms of adoption of the IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) accounting system. Most of the business organizations and institutions had to rely on the technical partners from outside the organizations for preparing balance sheet. Therefore, the confidentiality regarding the company’s internal matters were largely violated as well as the transparency and dependency of such balance sheet was largely distorted. Moreover, according to the norms of IFRS 1, the tenure of financial year continues from March to April whereas the prevalent financial year of Zimbabwe reflected the calendar year. Therefore, the companies and financial institutions were forced to publish their financial statements within the stipulated time period. Such provision enhanced the complexities regarding the accounting system and the cost of collecting financial information to a large extent. There were no short term remedies available to the government of Zimbabwe to safeguard the corporate and financial system from such accounting discrepancies. More emphasis was given on resolving the currency controversies so that the price level can be brought down under control. Moreover, Derman and Kaarhus (2013) were of the opinion that while adopting any new accounting standard, the economy and its financial system is bound to encounter difficulties in the initial period. However, implementing an accounting system of international standard will definitely yield positive result for the Zimbabwean economy in long term. In this way, the accounting aspect of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe further worsened the position of financial equilibrium in the country. 2.5. Empirical Research on the Hyperinflation A large number of empirical researches have been conducted for examining the nature of hyperinflation on Zimbabwe and effect of such financial phenomenon on the country. The study conducted by Kadenge and Tafirei (2015) includes the macroeconomic variables such as the rate of unemployment and inflation indicates very high correlation between the two. From such statistical evidence, it can be understood that as the inflation rate continues to increase and consequently reached the level of hyperinflation, the unemployment started increasing at an accelerated rate mainly because of disruption production and distribution system due to continuous devaluation of domestic currency, instable financial system, exhaustion of personal savings and therefore, lack of opportunities for business expansion and new job creation. Canicio and Blessing (2014) also conducted empirical research in order to identify the determinants in the financial system of Zimbabwe, functioning of which resulted the banking system of the country to collapse. Findings of the study indicates that initiative of the government to commence multiple currency regime, without taking proper corrective measurements to eliminate possibilities for accounting errors and exchange rate complexions led the banks to crumple. The real interest rate reached to - 520.2% in 2007 and the Zimbabwe dollar lost more than 99.9% of its value as against the value of US dollar in the same year (Kadenge and Tafirei, 2015). Naturally, the savings of the general investors crashed as such pool of savings were also denominated in the domestic currency of the country. Jambawo (2014) conducted an empirical study in order to identify the performance and functioning of the stock market during the hyperinflation driven situation in Zimbabwe. The research revealed that though the domestic currency of Zimbabwe continued to devalue during the hyperinflationary situation, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe used to provide infrequent updates regarding the current foreign exchange rates, deceiving a large number for foreign as well as domestic investors regarding their investment decisions. Non-availability of actual exchange rate disrupted the international business transactions for Zimbabwe that involves the country’s domestic currency. According to the study of Kadenge and Tafirei (2015), many individual investors stared relying on the unauthorized currency exchange rate termed as Old Mutual Implied Rate (OMIR) obtained from certain private sources. The share market showed vey less capital control measures. As the value of Zimbabwean dollar became obsolete, the US dollar occupies the position for legal tender for trading on the Zimbabwean exchange system. More than 26 stocks among the 62 listed stocks stopped trading. Anticipating the risk exposure involved in the Zimbabwean market, consequently the foreign investors became reluctant to invest into the market. 2.6. Hypothesis and Assumption on Future Development The occurrence of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe attracted the attention of most of the economics and financial experts throughout the world. Naturally, wide ranges of studies have yielded multiple hypotheses that might recover the country from such crisis driven situation. McCormack (2015) has identified that in order to recover the country from hyperinflation; the financial authority is required to implement one single foreign currency as the official currency of Zimbabwe instead of applying multiple currency regimes. He is of the opinion that the fiscal authority observe that among US dollar, euro, rand etc, US dollar is most extensively traded in the economy. As there is no question regarding credibility of US dollar, if the authority can standardize this currency as the official currency of Zimbabwe, the situation of financial unrest in the country can be stabilised to some extent (World Bank, 2007). Moreover, experiencing the strong currency regime, dollarization can also aid Zimbabwe to attract the foregone foreign investors, contribution of which will help the economy to rectify imbalances of the macroeconomic variables such as inflation and unemployment and recuperate it from the present situation. The hypothesis developed by Moore, Kriger and Raftopoulos (2013) suggest that as the defective monitoring and policy implementation of the central bank can be held responsible for hyperinflation in the country, replacement of central bank and financial liberalisation should be the most important initiatives for recovering the country from the crisis. According to him, if the central bank of any country functions properly, if can stop inflation as quickly as it can fuel the same. Hence, is spite of having an internationally recognised central bank, if the country experiences double digit inflation rate for a longer period of time, questions should be raised regarding the credibility of the central bank. As in case of Zimbabwe ineffectiveness of the central bank has been widely accepted, the government should defunct the reserve bank of Zimbabwe and alternative system should be implemented (Kadenge and Tafirei, 2015). In this context, Moore, Kriger and Raftopoulos (2013) have also specified the importance of financial liberalization in order to safeguard the country from all such occurrences. According to them, implementation of dollarization, currency board system and any other initiative regarding financial opening up can be achieved if the financial system can be liberalised. Financial liberalisation will aid to establish price control as well as money control mechanism in such a way that will restricts the country affecting from hyperinflation. Such liberalization will also facilitate free flow of capital to and fro the country which will replenish Zimbabwe’s capital stock into import capital. McCormack’s (2015) hypothesis indicates the importance of rectifying corporate governance mechanism for future development of Zimbabwe. In the next segment, such rationale behind such notion and its scope in Zimbabwe market will be analysed in details. 2.7. Future Development and Corporate Governance Mechanism Supporting the viewpoint of McCormack (2015), Aras and Crowther (2012) stated that corporate governance strikes a balance between financial and commercial interest of a country. If a country does not hold strong reputation regarding corporate governance, it will lead to experience lax accounting and lack of transparency in reporting standards which will eventually push it towards financial crisis and the flow of capital will be channelized in the wrong direction. According to McGee (2008), the corporate governance structure of Zimbabwe during the hyperinflation period was supported by high country risk for investment, undervalued asset, ambiguous investment policies and political instability. The pillars of corporate governance i.e. compliance, internal audit and risk management authorities were largely influenced by political circumference. In such circumstances, the economy and financial system of Zimbabwe understood the importance of upgrading the corporate governance mechanism of the country in order to protect it from any other crisis such as hyperinflation. As per the report of The Zimbabwean (2013), the after surviving from the initial trauma of hyperinflation, Zimbabwe has concentrated on building a stronger and more accountable corporate governance mechanism in terms of better risk management capability, broader management system, bigger scope for financial performance monitoring and reporting as well as capacity to bring higher degree of transparency through eliminating the provision for political influence. 2.8. Investment and Asset Management Strategies during Hyperinflation Derman and Kaarhus (2013) have defined asset management as the system of managing the asset of an entity or organization in a cost effective manner so that the value of such asset can increase over a certain period of time. Considering the asset management strategies at Zimbabwe, it has been identified by Barbosa and Filho (2015) that the country should manage its assets through currency boards where monetary liabilities will be fully backed by foreign reserve currency which is known as anchor currency. Jambawo (2014) was also of the opinion that as such assets are freely convertible into the reserve currency at a fixed rate on demand, the expected level of stability of such asset is considered to be higher due to involvement of low risk components. Regarding the investment strategies, study of Kadenge and Tafirei (2015) reveals that as the Zimbabwean Dollars continued to devalue, the ordinary investors found it difficult to safeguard their savings. Those who are comparatively economically strong, shifted their previous investment of any other foreign banks and migrated to other countries as well. Regarding the individuals from backward classes, they preferred to keep their money at home. Regarding the asset and liability management, Derman and Kaarhus (2013) were of the opinion that in order to deal with the deficit positions, the commercial banks would prefer to raise funds from those who were having excess funds for investment. Jambawo (2014) identified a trend among the banking sector to retain the matured investments as long as possible so that the total asset holding of banking system does not decline. In fact, the banks also redeemed their prior investments to any foreign banks. All such activities of banking system exposed it to high reputational risk in front of global financial system. As per the views of McCormack (2015), general investors sold off their equity holding in order to meet their liquidity needs as hyperinflation hit high unemployment. The widely accepted financial strategy during the period of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was reduction of credit sales as well as acceptance of fuel coupons and foreign currency as a medium of exchange. Barter trade and speculation in commodities and currencies were also adopted with an expectation of gaining fiscal benefits. 2.9. Summary From the literature review regarding hyperinflation it becomes prominent that a large number of factors such as continuous growth in price of goods and services when the growth in output remains the same, increase in money supply, increasing interest expenses of the government and government’s initiative to print more fiat money etc tend to originate hyperinflation. The researchers have also developed various theories over a long period of time in order to explain the rationale behind evolution of hyperinflation. Among all such theoretical perspectives, confidence model and monetary model have gained considerable attention in practical world. Confidence model elucidates that solvency issue of the government or central bank of a country tends to break the confidence of general investors whereas monetary model emphasises on the fact that monetary expansion initiatives of the money issuing authority of the country in order to cover the incrementing public expenditure, tends to create hyperinflation. Considering the case of Zimbabwe, defective policy formulation of government, initiation of multiple currency regime and many other similar considerations gave rise to the scenario of hyperinflation into the country. The domestic currency i.e. the Zimbabwean dollar continued to devalue and during 2007-2008, 99% of its value eroded as compared to US dollars. Naturally, such consideration broke the confidence of both the domestic and foreign investors to a great level. In such circumstances, attempt of Zimbabwean government to implement multiple currencies in turn created accounting discrepancies. Such accounting discrepancies resulted in distortion of many large to medium scale business; therefore worsening the situation further. Evolution of black market made it difficult for the ordinary citizens in the country to get an access to the necessary items as all the necessary to luxury goods and services were hoarded to black market for the purpose of selling at a very high price. In order to analyse the rationale behind such hyperinflation and generate strategies so that the country can overcome such situation, multiple empirical research has also been conducted. Some researches aimed to identify the effect of hyperinflation on the macroeconomic variables of the country whereas other researches explored the condition of banking system and stock market of Zimbabwe on the occasion of hyperinflation. Connotations of the researchers largely specify that Zimbabwe, its citizens and all other entities associated with the country were severely affected due to the incident of hyperinflation. Therefore, a large number of hypotheses have also been formulated by the researchers in order to prescribe how the country can survive such financial crisis. Many financial analysts emphasised on the fact that implementation of a single strong foreign currency can help the economy improve the condition. In this context, it has been observed that apart from Zimbabwean dollar, transaction of US dollar is widespread in Zimbabwe. US dollar being a strong currency, recommendation had been provided to the government of the country for dollarization i.e. standardisation of US dollar as official foreign currency of the country. Emphasise was also given on implementing financial liberalization and strengthening the corporate governance of the country. In the next segment, to what extent the ordinary investors were affected due to the hyperinflation and its effect on the macroeconomic variables will be analysed, based on the researchers’ insight discussed in this particular chapter. Reference List Aras, G. and Crowther, D., 2012. Global Perspectives on Corporate Governance. Farnham: Gower Publishing, Ltd. Barbosa, F. H. and Filho, T. N. T. S., 2015. Bubble, weak and strong hyperinflation: Theory and empirical evidence. EconomiA, 1(1), pp. 38-52. Bauer, J., 2013. The Flight of the Phoenix: Investing in Zimbabwes Rise from the Ashes during the Global Debt Crisis. London: epubli. Canicio, D. and Blessing, K., 2014. Determinants of Bank Failures in Multiple-Currency Regime in Zimbabwe (2009–2012). International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(8), pp, 165-222. Derman, B. and Kaarhus, R., 2013. In the Shadow of a Conflict. Crisis in Zimbabwe and Its Effects in Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia. Indiana: African Books Collective. 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