Evaluating the Effectiveness of Analytical Techniques - Research Paper Example

 Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Analytical Techniques An analytical technique pertains to the methods or avenues through which one is able to determine a given set of derivatives, factors and/ or variables within a given context. It is a safe, practical, efficient and effective methodology, through which various case scenarios may be scientifically or subjectively analyzed, with the aim of gaining better understanding of the subject matter. In the docket of Homeland Security, intelligence is crucial to the overall effectiveness of various taskforces, agencies and security firms, in the provision on national, state and regional security. In this regard, intelligence issues do affect majorly on the overall effectiveness of concerned stakeholders, towards ensuring national security, peace and order. The question at hand would be on the issue of intelligence gathering, analysis and storage1. Are current systems, avenues and techniques of data gathering, analysis, interpretation and storage secure from outside interference, theft and manipulation? If so, does this affect the sharing of data and information amongst partner states in the global arena? Intelligence entails various aspects, as influenced by prevailing contexts, which gradually continue to evolve with time. It pertains to the collection, analysis, and storage of critical data that is useful in ensuring government responses are based on factual and realistic aims or goals. Due to the delicate nature of national security and intelligence gathering, essential steps are mandatory, especially concerning ensuring the wholesomeness, accuracy and protection of such information. As it is said, ‘Information is power’ and indeed, information gives power to its possessor, regardless of the aims or agenda. In answer, I hope to provide how information gathering, analysis and storage may affect outcomes in terms of policy implementation, law enforcement, security and domestic intelligence. This is because the global society is interdependent, in terms of security, peace and counter-terrorism goals. Through effective techniques of predictive analysis, one is able to understand the delicate nature of securing the overall integrity of data or information within various security and intelligence agencies. This is not only true concerning American contexts, but rather is a global issue that requires concerted efforts in intelligence sharing, gathering, storage and trafficking, as well as analysis. Techniques of analysis are essential in terms of utility, value addition, present relations to other techniques, the potential pitfalls, origins and methodology used2. In this regard, the paper will be discussing the effectiveness of techniques, with focus being placed on five predictive analytical techniques i.e. Delphi, Red Teaming, Content Analysis, Rational Choice Theory and Comparative Analysis. Each is unique, though there is the presence of co-relational aspects amongst them. Intelligence issues do influence existing national, regional or global policies, especially in terms of political objectivity. The impetus provided by various occurrences and social contexts, i.e. the 9/11 terror attacks, the cold war and terrorism amongst others, necessitates the evaluation of national policies. The difference in terms of measures and avenues utilized, results in the differing nature of global issues of security, safety and order3. Government measures, policies (national and foreign) and strategies are based majorly, on the overall nature of interpretation of intelligence; as gathered from different sources and subsequently analyzed. In this regard, some techniques are preferred by given quarters, given their success rate, efficiency and overall effectiveness. This is due to the fact that intelligence gathering is utilized in advancing the causes of a given state’s national security. In some contexts, such actions may be viewed as either being reactionary or pre-emptive in nature dependent majorly on the level of security placement/ rating. To attain optimal analytical capability, the intelligence community, in tandem with the academic fraternity, utilizes the develop spectrum of software programs and analytical techniques4. Predictive Analytical Techniques Accordingly, the Delphi method of analysis and Red Teaming fall into this category. The former pertains to a structured technique of communication that was originally founded as an interactive and systematic forecasting method. It is majorly reliant on expert opinion, with varying perspectives being combined into forecasts, which are re-evaluation of previous forecasts. The founding of their judgments is essential in understanding the logic behind given answers or suggestions about intelligence. It is therefore upon consensus that answers are founded, concerning a stable equilibrium of issues. This is through utilizing the median scores of final discussions, towards determination of results. Ideally, it is based on the principle that decisions or forecasts, especially from structured groups of individuals, are more accurate than those emanating from unstructured ones are5. In terms of advantages, various participants provide information flow that is both structured and accurate, concerning a given issue or context. That is there is flow of data through varying stages, helping in refining of overall outcome. Through regular feedback, participants are able to amalgamate their ideals into concrete forecasts, which refined to remove errors and omissions. The anonymity of participants removes various barriers such as influence, threat to reputation, personality and authority; ultimately limiting the influences of the halo/bandwagon effect. Through the facilitators input, responses are focused on the questions or issues at hand, thereby limiting diversions and unrelated input6. On the converse, disadvantages exist in the form of time-scale required for effective outcomes/ results, in addition to problems and issues emanating from information flow, where an error from a participant may affect the time utilized and eventual effectiveness of intelligence utility. This may affect the overall outcome, in terms of data accuracy, timely submission and the consistency of information flow. Confidentiality of information is also an issue that may pose a threat, especially given the fact that the experts may not necessarily be in one place. Use of the internet in processing and flow of information may thus be negatively affected7. Red Teaming on its part aims at reducing enterprise risk occurrence, while subsequently enhancing firm opportunities. It is utilized at different levels i.e. tactical level utility such as military unit programs and training; operational level presence, where it challenges existing force posture, in addition to strategic level use where it aims at challenging prevailing visions and assumptions. Essential in training; concept experimentation and development; security provision for complex systems and networks, and in activities which are complex and have high risk effects, red teaming is vital in overall security and national order. The careful selection of staff makes sure that issues are discussed properly, with results being to optimal standards. Disadvantages exist in different ways i.e. not capturing the full nature/ aspect of the adversary; lack of full/ wholesome confidentiality, where information is at times leaked; inadequate interaction could occur, with respect to the program under challenge; may not take assignments seriously as intended; can lose its overall independence, thereby becoming confined by prevailing bureaucracy, and finally, the team effort may become marginalized as a result of being too removed from the central process of decisions making. In this regard, information accuracy can become compromised, in addition to gathering and analysis of the same. It is essentially influenced by the teams present, in term of input, specialty and overall understanding of issues at hand8. Of the two aforementioned techniques, I am of the view that the Delphi technique would be most suitable in this case, as it contains many more advantages over its counterpart. Further still is the essence of expert opinion, which has some measure of accuracy, which reduces the overall chances of making misinformed decisions. Through recurrent analysis and reference making, the decisions reached are mainly refined in nature and thus, reducing error-margins or aspects of omission. Other Analytical Techniques Other techniques can be utilized, dependent on their respective strengths and limitation of error-margins. This is influential in provision of optimal analysis of given situational contexts. These include the Rational Choice Theory, Comparative Analysis and Content Analysis. The Rational Choice Theory also referred to as rational action or choice theory regards the framework of human understanding, vital for the formal modeling of economic and social behavior. Regarding the latter, it entails the choice of wanting more good rather than bad. In this regard, there is a balance of the costs against benefits derived, in reference to actions that are aimed at maximizing personal advantages9. Advantages include the fact that choices made are structurally rational in nature, emphasizing on good as opposed to bad. This is through aiding rational reasoning, which aids in the formulation of falsifiable hypothesis. However, its inclination towards more of tautology, as based on definition, rather than on practical application, provides the core disadvantage. Fundamentally so, is the fact that it s nearly impossible to test empirically, the results that are gained from the rationality assumption, as different individuals are inclined towards thinking in specific ways. This further explains why it is more necessary to utilize bounded rationality, in replacement of absolute rationality. In this regard, there are difficulties in data processing, which further delays decision making10. Content Analysis on its part regards the study of content present within empirical documentation; involving the processes of communication i.e. reference being placed on the sender’s active role, the receiver, and the code common between the two parties. On the other hand, it also regards communication processes, which lack the aforementioned stakeholders, regarded as signification. As a scholarly method, it is more meticulous in nature, having to refer to various avenues of information; concerning meaning, authenticity and authorship of text. In terms of advantages, three core categories are present i.e. the making of inferences about communication effects the description and making of inferences to given communication, as well as making inferences on communication antecedents11. Encoding processes are present, with the aim of providing various advantages i.e. greater analysis of all contextual content present. These include the target of inferences made, boundaries and context derivatives, terms of definition, mode of data analysis as well as the overall definition. Disadvantages may exist in the form of assumptions being made that phrases and words present. In addition is the fact that it entails quite huge workloads, as there is need of verifying various aspects crucial in determining a message’s overall viability and accuracy. This is especially essential concerning intelligence gathering and analysis, and hence may not be useful in cases where there is a sense of urgency in terms of results or analysis needed12. Concerning intelligence and national security, is more definitively inclined towards comparative contextual analysis, where contextual interrogation does precede any other form of analysis. This is in regard to differences or similarities, which may be present. As a thematic process, it is both designed and directed towards the exploration of relationships pertinent to agency, as opposed to structural or institutional frameworks. Advantage exists in terms of the nature of analysis being more inclined towards the context prevailing hence the increased accuracy in regard to results gained/ achieved. This is influenced by the fact that the avenue utilizes data sets through listing and subsequently counting all prevailing variable combinations observable13. Then, it entails the application logical inference rules, in the aim of determining which implications or descriptive inferences are supported by the data. This however, provides the key avenue of its disadvantages, given the timeframe and content to be covered. This is influenced by the fact that there is need for comparative analysis of all manner of information, even slightly related to the issue at hand. This is thus not only time consuming, but also expensive in the overall sense. Of the three methodologies, I would say that this latter category – Comparative analysis – is the most adequate in terms of the processes involved in intelligence gathering, analysis, interpretation and eventual policy implementation. Of the five categories, I would still vote for the Delphi methodology14. This is influenced by various aspects as judgment is founded on the logic behind provided suggestions or answers, which are based on consensus. As expert opinion is the main aspect of the resulting suggestions, it is more accurate in nature, having gone through several processes/ phases before the final selection of the desired derivatives. Based on the principle that decisions or forecasts, especially from structured groups of individuals, are more accurate than those emanating from unstructured ones, it possesses the advantage of providing concrete data on which decision making processes may be rooted on15. Various participants provide information flow that is both structured and accurate, in regard to a given issue or context, through flow of data through varying stages, helping in refining of overall outcome. It is through regular feedback that participants are able to amalgamate their ideals into concrete forecasts, which refined so as to remove errors and omissions. In conclusion, in regard to intelligence, security and peace, it is vital for data accuracy to be assured, as the effects of inaccurate data can result in unwanted results and subsequent consequences from policy measures introduced and implemented. Fundamentally, so, information gathering and analysis should be augmented by refining processes, where potential errors and omissions are sort out in early stages. This provides arenas where government policy making and implementation is more anchored on accurate data present, and thus policy measures are more realistic and effective on contexts present. Bibliography Findlay, Mark. The Globalization of Crime: Understanding Transitional Relationships in Context. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), (1999) 57. Green, Donald P., and Ian Shapiro. Pathologies of rational choice theory: A critique of applications in political science. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1994. Krippendorff, Klaus. Content Analysis: An Introduction to Its Methodology (2nd Ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. (2004). Rihoux, Benoît. "Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Systematic Comparative Methods Recent Advances and Remaining Challenges for Social Science Research." International Sociology 21, no. 5 (2006): 679-706. Rowe, Gene, and George Wright. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis." International journal of forecasting 15, no. 4 (1999): 353-375. Read More