UK Recession Increase in Consumer Demand for Value Products - Dissertation Example

UK Recession – Increase in Consumer Demand for Value Products Submitted by: XXXX XXX number: XXXXXXX of XXXXXXXX XXXXXXX Subject: XXXXXXXX Subject Code: XXXXXXX Date of Submission: XXXXXXX Number of Words: XXXXXX Introduction: A country with an uninterrupted growth of almost 16 years, with the fifth largest economy on the basis of the exchange rates, and the sixth largest on the basis of the purchasing power parity, UK has been the best economy for a very long time. It has had the ninth highest GDP per capita (Kirkup, 2008). This report aims at understanding the changes that have been face in the country due to the recession. Major focus of this report is on the consumer behaviour and also the increase in consumer demand for value products. Recession: Recession in simple terms has been explained to be a decline in the Gross Domestic Product of a country for a period of two successive quarters. This however is not an accurate definition as there are a number of other variables that are involved in leading a country to recession and these needs to be considered as well. The Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) which is a part of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), have provided for a better mode of analysing whether a country is in the mode of recession or not. It has been studied that during a recession period the country and every business within the country will be faced with a drop in the business activities. Hence The BCDC, have explained recession to be a time when the business activities reach a peak and then are seen to reduce until the business activities bottom out. Post this period, the business activities are seen to start rising again, which is referred to as the ‘expansionary’ period (Knoop, 2004). Recession periods on an average last for a year in most cases. The image below provides for a better understanding of the term as well. Figure 1: Recession Graph (Recession Definition, 2009) It is also essential to understand that during a period of recession, aspects of the economy like employment, industrial production, real income and also wholesale and retail sales will be affected and will show a drop. In simpler terms the recession normally occurs when the level of ‘real national output’, shows a decline over two consecutive quarters. This causes the contraction and is seen in the total volume of production in the economy (Knoop, 2004). It is also important to understand that recession can be caused due to a sudden change in the domestic markets or even with an external shock from the external markets. A disturbance within the domestic markets, or even the tightening up of the central bank could lead to the start of recession within the country. Recession in UK: The economies world over have been trying to develop after the major crash in 1970. According to the deputy governor of Bank of England, the world economy has a ‘long way to go’. According to Professor Bean’s bleak assessment, the United Kingdom has seen an undisturbed and unbroken expansion for over sixteen years. This however has now led the country to an end in economic growth. Professor predicts the country to see a full recession by the end of 2008. The Economy of United Kingdom is the fifth largest in the world on the basis of the exchange rates and the sixth largest on the purchasing power parity (PPP). Also United Kingdom is one of the most globalised countries of the world. The Capital of United Kingdom - London is the major financial centre of the world. It is noted that the British economy has seen a chronic weak growth. According to International Monetary Fund in 2007, the GDP per capita of the country is the ninth highest (Kirkup, 2008). The Government of United Kingdom along with the support of the Bank of England have been trying to ensure that the countries economy improves. Over the years the economy of United Kingdom has seen large variations in the economic conditions. The economy of the entire world has seen an enormous dip in 1970 with the oil shock in 1973. The Economic systems worldwide have seen an economic strain caused due to the prices of oil being increased which influenced the Bretton Woods System of international economic stabilisation and the affects made by contraceptive pills on the social dynamics (Daley, 2008). The Government of United Kingdom has continued to take a lot of comprehensive programs to sustain the economic performance of the country and to ensure employment growth in the country. Reports of 2006 – Commissions Annual Report and 2007 – Spring European Report clearly showed the progress of UK towards the Lisbon goals of jobs and growth. The Budget of 2007 reported the economic growth to be 2 ¾ percent in 2006 when compared to the actual goal of Lisbon – 3% which was expected to made by 2010. With the efforts of the government and the Bank of England, United Kingdoms is one of only three member states to have been able to achieve the Lisbon employment targets (Lisbon Strategy, 2007). The UK recession had been predicted by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC). In August 2008, BCC had predicted that United Kingdom will face a light recession in the country. However this as they mentioned would not be a very big recession and would be the first time in 16 years that the country would face a negative or zero GDP. The cause for the recession in the country cannot be pointed out clearly. However it is safe to say that the issues that are caused by banks have had a strong underlying factor for the recession. A former advisor, Dr Ros Altmann pointed out: ‘They punish those who actually did the right thing [savers], while benefiting the very groups (the banks in particular) whose actions caused this mess’, when there was a half point cut in the rates by the central bank (Randall, 2009). One of the major trigger for the recession is the crisis that has been faced by the country – The Northern Rock Crisis. The crisis of Northern Rock did not only leave itself shaken up but also the entire economy of the United Kingdom. This crisis has affected customer trust and confidence in the banks and lending institutions. Also the country has been faced with a serious credit crunch. The banks and the entire economy have been faced with a cloud of distrust from the people of the country (Guardian, 2008). Also this has affected to a great extent the deposits in banks. Post this incident the entire country has been faced with a sense of doubt and uncertainty about depositing the monies into banks, and the overall trust of the customers has reduced to a great deal. Also the credit crunch has lead to add fuel to the fire. In short this has built an environment of lacking faith and consumer trust (Guardian, 2008). This cannot be considered as the only cause of the recession. A number of factors together along with the crisis has lead the country into a state of recession. However the year 2009 has proved to be a promising change for the country. According to the Organisation for Economic Co – operation and Development (OECD), UK has been showing signs of possible improvements (Monaghan, 2009). Table 2: OECD Indicators (Monaghan, 2009) The above mentioned tabel provides for the information from OECD, which highlights the positions of the countries based on the various indicators like unemployment, and many others. The latest injdicators which normally can be considered to be a vellweather for the global economic outlooks highlighted Britains progress towards a possible trough rather than being a strong slowdown. According to the OECD gauge, UK has risen by 0.3 points tp 96.6. However the country is 5.4 points lower than what it was in the previous year. These indicators and the rise in the points are providing a hope for the country to be moving out of recession and gaining back stability in the economy. The inflation in the country has also started a slow decline. However the rise in the prices of goods and services have hit an all time high and this drop is now negligible. The graph below provides a view of the current standing of the country’s inflation. Figure 3: Annual Inflation Rates – 12 months percentage change-2.0 (National Statistics, 2009) As per the government statistics, the countries inflation rates were slowly declining. However the consumer price index has not seen too much of a change and some of the major sectors which still require being relieved from the pressure include: a) Food, beverage , vegetables and meat b) Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices c) Restaurant and hotel prices d) Recreation and culture and also miscellaneous goods and services (National Statistics, 2009). The government along with the Bank of England has helped improve the economy over the last two years in a number of ways. The government has set out a goal to create a single market which would help the country in many ways to compete in the 21st century global market economy. The government felt this would be very good for the country and thus has set out strategy in 2007 for a single market that delivers for European citizens. This would mainly focus on four key principles: a) focusing on the outcome of promoting growth, prosperity and jobs, b) emphasis on the principle of subsidiary and cooperation, c) use of a wide range of policy tools and d) prioritising actions in areas of great economic impacts (Lisbon Strategy, 2007). Affects of Recession on Consumer Behaviour: The recession within UK has had a very strong impact on the customers and the consumer behaviour. The behavioural change is not only in terms of buyers but also in terms of the trust that the customers have had on financial institutions. Post the issues of Northern Rock that had been faced by the economy and the crisis of the various commercial banks, the consumer trust has been noted to be deteriorating. A research that was published by the Financial Services Consumer Panel in January 2008, displayed the general consumer trend towards cynicism and the growing distrust in the recent times. They also said that there have been confusions between trust and familiarity. In a number of cases the public trust financial institutions based on the brand image and the levels of brand positioning (AIFA, 2008). The report also highlighted that the consumer trust in traditional institutions has been constantly declining as the society which was known for one which is made up of consumers and has lost its traditional respect to authority. There has however been a very strong impact of the recession on the consumer behaviour and buyer behaviour. This is evident from the fact that the sales of the supermarkets have hit a strong decline over the past year. With the prices of the normal food items and commodities reaching sky high, consumers have taken a number of steps to reduce the buying from the retailers. The buying patterns of the customers have seen major changes, and people tend to now buy products which provide for high value. There have been a number if interviews that have been conducted across the country to gain an insight on how the recession has affected their choice of buying goods for the regular use. A few of the responses are provided here to gain an better understanding of how the customers feel. Te interviews that have been conducted by BBC show: ‘During these difficult times my family and I are certainly eating more basic foodstuffs. Back on the menu are the beans (though we still avoid the cheaper own brands of course!) and we have had to return to the non-organic vegetables as these have become simply one luxury too many. All in all I actually think we are living a healthier lifestyle during these difficult economic times, as there is less processed, fast food on our plates and more (although blander) fruit and veg’ (BBC, 2009). Also in other comments from the customers; ‘Due to the economic down turn and constant doom and gloom I have stopped buying things like Innocent smoothies, Ill either make my own now or buy supermarket own brand fruit juice. I have also stopped buying organic yogurts as well as pre-made shop sandwiches. The things that were once seen as acceptable to be buying every week are now definite treats. I have definitely reduced spending on food and cook far more meals from scratch - which as well as being good for you, is cheaper too!’ (BBC, 2009). The recession and the economic slowdown seems to have affected every customer in a number of ways. This is evident from the customer’s comment: ‘The difference now is that instead of just picking up what I want regardless of price, I check the price first to see if its actually worth it, and invariably choose a less expensive option or dont buy it at all. Own brand items are usually made in the same factories as branded items; but I do tend to steer clear of "value" range for meat and poultry’ (BBC, 2009). Another report of a customer says: ‘Living alone, the easiest way to feed myself was with prepared meals ready to go in the oven. Individually they were not expensive but the meat, chicken or seafood content was usually not very high. Now I buy the ingredients separately and prepare meals myself. For the same money I can now produce two fairly substantial meals instead of a not very satisfying one. So Im buying more fresh meat and vegetables and a few jars of ready-made sauces instead of ready-meals. Time rich, cash poor!’ (BBC, 2009). The retailers and the grocery store owner have been affected by the changes to a great extent. Although the UK government along with the Bank of England have made constant efforts to stabilise the prices, there has still been a drastic increase in the prices, which has thereby affected the buyer behaviour. Researches around the world have highlighted that there are ten major points that can be noted in the consumer behaviour during times of recession. Customers also feel: ‘Im noticing Im buying more products in bulk and throwing away some as waste, if I cant find someone to share the excess with. With some of the family friendly discounting its often cheaper to buy the bulky pack on offer than what you really need. For example 5kg of potatoes for 49p - Ill only use half before they go off but 1kg will cost a £1 or more’ (BBC, 2009). This is majorly because during these times people, who have stable jobs and do not need to move homes, will have a higher amount of income which they would have at the disposal. This is majorly from the savings that they have from the earlier years. Thus the ten major behaviour patterns are as discussed below. Firstly, the customers will be willing to spend on high value purchases, however this is only if the customers are provided with a valid reasoning to buy the products and also if they have complete assurance of the products that they are buying. This is majorly because of the fact that the customers will be less willing to take on debt fund for their purchases and would prefer to be sure of what they are buying in terms of complete economic slowdown. This is one of the most common traits that are seen in the customers and as discussed this is affect directly by the level of recession or economic slowdown of a country. Secondly, it is important to note that in the current situation, customers expect to gain a lot of assurance while buying products. This is to ensure and feel safe that the money being spent is not going to waste and the results of the use of the product will meet the needs of the customers. Also both the interest rate as well as the inflation stays low which makes people with stable jobs in a better economic condition than those without jobs. However there is a lot of lack of confidence and assurance that is seen in the customers while making a choice. Also during such times, the customers are very price sensitive. If the prices of a product increase even to a small extent this could cause a number of issues. Also with the high use of the Internet, the customers now have a chance to compare goods and services and the prices online and also choose the stores as per the best possible deals that they might get. Also with the retailers providing for different forms of promotions the customers thus gain much more out of these and can access value. Stability in prices refers to the idea that the countries goods and services prices remain constant. The change in prices affects the economy. Increase in the average prices would signify the country is moving towards inflation and that would mean higher interest rates. Also with the increase in the interest rates it would likely affect the various other aspects like the savings, pensions, lenders and export and import businesses. If the value of the pound increases it would simply mean that people would be able to buy much lesser for the same amounts of money. This will affect the general public and buying of the regular necessities would become difficult. However although the recession and the need for people to save at all times, the need for entertainment and escapism is never out of trend. This is one need that customers will always have at all times irrespective of the situation. Thus it has been noted that brands which provide the customers with good quality at lower prices and also full entertainment, will tend to be much more successful than any other brand. Studies also show that companies that advertise through the recession in the long term as well as short term end up with high gains and revenues. This is majorly because the customers are very price sensitive during times of recession. The span of focus and the constant need to find a cheaper yet good solution is very high in times of the recession. Thus any advertising or promotional activities that are undertaken during these times will lead to leaving a strong impact on the minds of customer and will lead to possible future revenues and earnings for the company. Media plays a very important role especially in times of recession. Studies show that media rates will fall down steeply with the downturn of the economy. However the actual reduction rates will be much higher than the headline inflation figures. This is the same even in case of banks during the recession periods. According to Solomon (1992) “seeing is believing”. What people usually see is what they believe. Solomon states that “the mass media play a large role in consumer socialization and decision making” (p. 573). Heffernan (2006) agrees that the media affects consumers’ behaviour and says that “any market rumour can undermine depositor confidence” (p. 175). He also explains that banks are “particularly vulnerable to contagion effects, when lack of confidence associated with one poorly performing bank spreads to other, healthy banks” (Heffernan, 2006, p. 175). People, as Heffernan (2006) also says, “know that once a run on a bank begins, liquidated bank assets will decline in value very quickly, so they want to with draw their deposits before run” (p. 175). Even affluent banks may suffer a run and “if most banks are affected, the financial system may well collapse” (Heffernan, 2006, p. 175). In such times of recession if advertisers approach the media owners with long term business cases then these will be appreciated and will also generate higher and more substantial improvements. Coulson (1998) emphasises that it is difficult to clearly define trust as there are many meanings (p. 13). In general, the term “‘trust’ dates back to 13th century Middle English and has its etymological roots in older expressions denoting faithfulness and loyalty, but the phenomenon of trust is probably as old as the earliest forms of human association” (Möllering & Bachmann & Lee, 2004). Trust can be defined as “one party’s willingness to be vulnerable to another party based on the belief that the latter party is: (a) competent, (b) open, (c) concerned, and (d) reliable” (Coulson, 1998, p. 14). It is a concept that fluctuates according to experience (Coulson, 1998, p. 12). This means that trust can easily be damaged and is very difficult to rebuild once it has been destroyed (Coulson, 1998, p. 13). In addition, trust is not a static concept and “people’s willingness to trust may also vary over time: in Britain people were more willing to trust the welfare state in the 1960s than they are now” (Coulson, 1998, p. 13). According to Coulson (1998) trust is becoming an essential element of business success, as it trust is “concerned with the world of personal relationships, emotions and intuitions. It is also one of the key concepts that have emerged in the search for the secrets of competitive success (p. 35). This is particularly relevant to the financial sector, as emphasised by Llewellyn (2005) who comments that “trust and confidence are central ingredients in retail finance. Trust is more important in financial services than in most other industries. The inculcation of Trust and Confidence needs to become part of business strategy in financial services firms.” When consumers feel they are at risk, trust is negatively affected. “Openness, accountability and clear measures of efficiency are probably essential if trust is to be recreated and enhanced” (Coulson, 1998). Thus trust also places a very essential role in the buyer behaviour during recession. A company which has gained complete trust and high levels of customers will prove to be more successful than others. It is also essential to understand that in the current digital world, the consumers will be more attracted to companies that use the digital media. This normally creates and gains a number of responses and will help improve the campaign rather than the offline mode of media exposure. There are a number of different approaches to this kind of marketing, some of which have been mentioned here. Firstly, Email marketing, is one of the most effective and latest modes of marketing. This form of marketing has proven to be successful in almost every industry. Secondly, the option to use the option of Video marketing will prove to be very beneficial for all industries and will attract a number of customers. Also, Pod Casting is another new strong form of marketing. This is one of latest new media marketing processes and it is a series of digital media files which normally include both audio and videos and these are normally provided for downloads. Another mode of new media marketing which has seen a high level of growth is the Social Networking. Social networking is one of the most recent and high used form of marketing and advertising for most companies. This can prove to be very beneficial for the company. Also another very fast growing and very beneficial mode of marketing is to run a pay per click campaign. Here the company can place their advertisements in other website, on search engines, and advertising networks. These are commonly referred to as Sponsored ads by the search networks (Simply, Business, 2008). There are a number of different providers for pay per click, like Google Ad words, Yahoo Search Marketing and many more. This is a recently new and a growing form of new media marketing. Here companies use blogs to share information about the company. Also this can be used as a strong mode of positive advertising for the company. Here the company has a chance to make the website as informative as well as interactive as they would like. Also user interactivity is one of the strongest and most essential parts of a website which provide a mode to reach out to a larger audience and create an impact on the audience. Also use of creative ideas and newer marketing methods will increase the curiosity and interests of the customers thereby increase the revenues of the company. However in the current recession periods, the results will be seen in smaller intensity and will be seen to grown in the long run. It is also essential that the production costs drop and media owners can invest in the production to access the newer budgets. This will provide companies with a chance to create more investments for the production. Also the drop in costs will provide a better chance for the companies to build better relations with the customers as well as the media. Also it is essential to have flexibility. This will help improve the value creation for both the clients as well as preparing them for testing and learning (Simply, Business, 2008). Lastly, briefing agencies in different ways. Briefs are normally executional and have the channels already defined. It is important to share the business problems and also getting agencies to challenge the conventions. If the company feels it deserves to be on television, then the company’s budget will be reduced drastically and it is then a challenge of the agency to be able to figure a way for the company to be on television. In the current situation it is possible for the companies to do so without too many issues. It is also essential that the company gets the agency to provide them with a strategy which needs to be accessed by the chief executive officer and the chief financial officers. An important starting point for the company will be to convince the stakeholders and the clients to invest in the company. This can be done by the predicating and demonstrating effects. This information can be got from the media owners and also by working in link with the media agencies (Simply, Business, 2008). Rise and Drop in Demands: The previous section provides for a clear understanding of the various factors that affect the consumer behaviour during recession. This section is to provide a clear view and understanding of examples of products that have seen a fall in the demand and those which have seen a high rise in demand. The diagram below provides for an understanding of how the choices of commodities bought by the customers are different and how much change has been noted in the demand for these items as well. Figure 4: Change in percentage of demand (BBC, 2009) Also, there has been a huge dip in the demand for premium breads. Customer have been noted to have stopped buying premium breads like seeded loaves, croissants and bagels. This has also led to an increase in the demand for the standard white bread. There has been an increase of 2% in November, 15.2% in October, 20% in September and a staggering 55% in August. There have also been a number of other products which have shown very complicated changes in the demand as well. Like the demand for sparkling wine has seen a fall of only around 2.3% in December however the cost of the sparkling wine is more than champagne. The demand for champagne has seen a fall of 10% in the month, which leads to a conclusion that people have changed choice and moved onto buying sparkling wine instead of the champagne. There has also been a strong change in the needs of the customers and the customers have started out from home rather than buying readymade or processed foods. Also according to Charles Davis of the Centre for Economics and Business research, there is a higher number of ‘stay – home economy’. The table below provides for a detailed report of the amounts of money spent by the consumers in Great Britain. This also highlights the percentage change and needs of the customer over a period of one month. 12 Weeks to 23 March 2008 12 Weeks to 22 March 2009 Change £ 000 s % * £ 000 s % * % Total Till Roll 27,906,191   28,605,449   2.5 Total Grocers 20,060,291 100.00% 21,227,518 100.00% 5.8 Total Multiples 18,605,858 92.70% 19,758,429 93.10% 6.2 Tesco 6,185,522 30.80% 6,453,370 30.40% 4.3 Asda 3,421,940 17.10% 3,711,938 17.50% 8.5 Sainsburys 3,239,500 16.10% 3,422,662 16.10% 5.7 Morrisons 2,327,583 11.60% 2,495,623 11.80% 7.2 Somerfield 715,232 3.60% 699,959 3.30% -2.1 Waitrose 795,406 4.00% 805,006 3.80% 1.2 Iceland 343,713 1.70% 375,708 1.80% 9.3 Netto 147,294 0.70% 150,678 0.70% 2.3 Lidl 442,317 2.20% 499,544 2.40% 12.9 Aldi 520,963 2.60% 605,635 2.90% 16.3 Farm Foods 99,155 0.50% 118,442 0.60% 19.5 Other Freezer Centres 47,741 0.20% 49,989 0.20% 4.7 Other Multiples 319,493 1.60% 369,876 1.70% 15.8 The Co-operative 895,746 4.50% 939,622 4.40% 4.9 Total Independents 558,686 2.80% 529,467 2.50% -5.2 Total Symbols 206,325 1.00% 198,857 0.90% -3.6 Other Independents 352,362 1.80% 330,610 1.60% -6.2 * = Percentage Share of Total Grocers Figure 5: Great Britain Consumer spent (Longbottom, 2009) The demand of the consumers has been noted to have increased in the value products sector during this period and people have been noted to prefer buying products that are healthier yet a cheaper option. The number of people eat out has reduced and there has been a vast increase in the ‘eat – home economy’. Conclusions: Based on the study of recession and the buyer behaviours in the UK, it is clear that the recession has lead to the buyer becoming more cautious of what they buy and how much money is spent on the daily expenses. The retail industry has seen the highest drop in sales of a few items. The inflation has led to a change in the groceries as well. The grocery prices have seen an increase of 0.6 over a period of four weeks. It is also noted that the weakness of the Sterling is now being fed through the commodity price inflation. There is thus a high change in the consumer behaviour and the levels of buying goods are changing to quite an extent. The reports also show that customers now believe in changing over to value goods and also to cooking at home rather than buying readymade foods from outside. This is leading the customers to have a better and healthier lifestyle as well. The major reasons for the change in consumer behaviour can be traced back to the economic crisis that has been caused by the banks. According to a research that was conducted by The Boston Consulting Group recently, most of the customers felt that the drop in the trust levels because of the failing financial sector had left them with distrust for the large companies. Also, the depression of the country is also causing a psychological affect on the minds of the consumers. This can be sorted out without an issue as it is up to the supermarkets to realise that the customers need to empathise with them. Thus this can be sorted if the advertisements and marketing are all based on passion and compassion. This will provide the customers with a positive outlook and lead them to be able to buy more goods from the supermarket. It is also essential to understand that the supermarkets use their power to include into the stores, their own produced value products. These products are comparatively cheaper than the competitors and this is one reason why customers tend to lean towards these products to a great extent. Consider Tesco’s Value products, the materials used in the products are the same as competitors, the quality is equally good as well; however the company is able to price these products at lower cost as the company can save on the advertisements and the marketing for these products. This is mainly because there is inherent marketing in play, i.e. customers come to the stores to buy products, when they see and compare the prices of two products which are the same quality, and it is human nature to choose the one which is cheaper. Companies will gain out of this as the marketing costs are low, the packaging costs are kept to the bare minimum, and the production costs are also not very high because of economies of scale. This is beneficial to the customers as the customer get the same products for a lower price and do not need to become a part of the extra overhead which the company dumps on the customers. Also with the growing need to save money and the recession in the country customers would prefer to buy the products which are cheaper yet good quality and from a trusted brand. Bibliography AIFA, (2008), ‘Consumer Trust in Financial Services’, Accessed on 18 May 2009, Retrieved from http://www.aifa.net/_assets/documents/Consumer%20Trust.pdf BBC, 2009, ‘What are you giving up in the downturn?’, 13th January 2009, Accessed on 23rd May 2009, Retrieved from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7824072.stm Coulson, A., (1998), ‘Trust and Contracts’, Bristol: The Policy Press. 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