Climate Change - Dissertation Example

?Literature Review: Climate Change and the Sustainability of Urban Communities and Urban Transport Emissions Focus especially on transportation, and its role in urban communities, one fact was clear from across the literature – that global transport emissions are not only huge, but growing fast, and expected to continue in this trend. Henson produces a succinct summary of the contribution of transport to greenhouse gas emissions in his excellent and practical survey of the field, nothing that in the United Kingdom and the United States, travel makes up for about a third of the average person’s carbon footprint (2008, p.345). There is some disagreement in the literature about the percentage of emissions caused by each sector. Whitaker (2007, p.62), for example, produces a very conservative estimate for transportation fuels, of just 14% of total emissions. Nevertheless, even Whitaker’s figures make clear that urban communities are producing unsustainable levels in other areas – for example, power stations to supply their energy are held responsible for 21.3% of greenhouse gas output, 10.4% are caused by residential and commercial sectors, and a further 3.4% is caused by waste disposal and treatment. The provision of the latter on a large-scale in only necessitated by the large-scale existence of urban settlement patterns. International trade, travel and a growing dependence on motor vehicles has made transportation one of the major sources of greenhouse gases. The growing numbers of people living in urban communities make a major contribution to this. As well as travelling between cities and within cities, they do not, of course, produce their own food and drink. Therefore, all of the necessities of every day life, and much else besides, has to be imported to the urban environment, at great cost to gas emissions. As was pointed out by several sources, the Kyoto Protocol – the landmark international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, did not apply to emissions from international trade and transport by air and sea. Furthermore, as urban settlements grow and sprawl into the previously rural hinterlands, the distances which need to be traversed within cities become greater, which leads to increased ownership of cars and motorbikes. In the United States, for example, 92% of households own at least one car, and transport is the second largest contributor to US gas emissions, and, perhaps more worrying, an astonishing 35% of the world’s total (Dow & Downing, 2007, p.46). The United Kingdom has seen similar patterns, with car journeys increasing by 9% between 1997 and 2004, and expected to grow by a further 26% between 2000 and 2010 (Department for Transport, 2005, p.10). Some sources took a more literary approach to the problems of climate change and urban sustainability, such as the use of a quote from Ehrenburg, penned in 1929, presaging the destruction wrought by the motor vehicle: ‘the automobile…can’t be blamed for anything…It only fulfils its destiny: it is destined to wipe out the world’ (1999, p.175). Compared to the alternatives, such as using bicycles, trains and buses, which are relatively energy-efficient, using personal motor cars, especially if they are carrying only one or two people at a time, is damaging. However, the most sustainable type of transport – walking, has become less popular. In the past decade, as Monbiot points out, the number of walking trips in the UK has fallen 20% (2006, p.145). At the same time, air travel is becoming ever more affordable, with passenger miles only expected to increase in the course of the next few decades. Dow and Downing provide a useful digest of figures for transport emissions, and their global distribution, and estimate that from 3.9 billion journey by air in 2004, by 2020 there were will some 7.4 billion (2007, p.46). Each of these journeys is responsible for huge amounts of carbon dioxide emissions, with a round trip between Europe and the US by two people producing the equivalent of at least 40 tonnes of carbon – more than half that of the average UK household in the course of a year (Henson, 2008, p.346). Dow and Downing (2007, p.46) noted that worldwide, the transport sector emitted 36% more greenhouse gases in 2000 than in 1990, due to the growing mobility of both goods and people. 2. The Alternative View While most scientists and indeed laypeople now seem convinced of the facts of climate change, there is a growing body of literature which challenges conventional wisdom on the topic. Much of it is scarcely credible, but the alternative viewpoint must be recognized. For the most part, these texts acknowledge that there are indeed substantial changes currently occurring in the Earth’s climate. However, then tend to play down human factors in these changes, arguing instead that they are part of natural cycles which have been in motion for many millions of years, and that the current period of warming is just another in a long series. One such work is that of Fred Singer and Avery, which makes the case, on the basis of what the authors consider to be ‘convincing evidence’ (2007, p.1), for a series of irregular, 1,500 year cycles which are responsible for almost all climate fluctuations. They cite, for example, a warming experienced by the Romans between about 200 BC and AD 600, and a Medieval Warming from around 900 to 1300, as well as a Little Ice Age, from 1300-1800. The latter is well-documented, and were one unaware of evidence to the contrary, one might be convinced by the weight of evidence the authors bring to bear on the issue. They cite cores from the Antarctic’s Vostok glacier, which, they claim, show the same 1500 year climate cycle going on for the past 400,000 years (Fred Singer & Avery, 2007, p.3), along with the evidence of seabed sediment, cave stalagmites, fossilized pollen and settlement patterns. It is notable that even in this interpretation, which rejects human factors, the authors warn that in the warming and then the ice age they predict for the next few thousand years, human settlements will have to be radically altered, and will have to concentrate in different areas of the world. However, the evidence of climate change which has been contributed to by humans still seems more convincing. Most scientists are sure of the facts, and the truth is that the Earth has not, for many thousands of years, every warmed up at the current rate. 3. Likely Impact There is also a body of literature which focuses on the likely effects of global warming on various types of urban community worldwide. The Stern Review, set up by the UK government and intended as a comprehensive investigation into the facts of climate change and the necessary government response, provides some useful information on this. For example, just a 2°C rise in temperatures would lead to a further 10 million people who live on coastal plains being at risk of flooding, while with a 3°C rise, up to 170 million more people would be at risk (Stern, 2007, p.66). Even more striking is the list of major cities that would be at risk if sea levels were to rise. Naturally, some of the world’s greatest metropolises are located on river deltas, by the sea, or in low-lying basins. More than 200 million people live in coastal floodplains, $1 trillion worth of assets are held at locations less than a metre above sea level, and cities at risk include London, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Calcutta and New York, to name but a few (Stern, 2007, p.90). Kolbert took a more localized approach to the issue, looking at the likely impact of climate change on specific communities. In a striking example, she visited the Netherlands, a quarter of which lies below sea level, and another quarter is low-lying enough that with any rise in sea level it would be at regular risk of flooding (2006, p.121).The Dutch have decided that the dikes are no longer sufficient, and have started abandoning some land to the rivers and sea in order to protect major urban centres, while a technological firm Kolbert visited is working on buoyant houses, roads and greenhouses, to try and make areas which will be regularly inundated still viable for settlement (2006, p.129). 4. Solutions Governments are continuing to invest heavily in road infrastructure, which makes it difficult to see how any really change can come about in the use of motor vehicles, which, by general consensus, does such damage to the environment. Much of the literature suggests some practical steps that individuals can take to reduce their own carbon footprint from their transport habits. If they continue to use a car, because of need or convenience, they should consider taking part in a carpooling or car-sharing scheme, in order to ensure that cars are full when they travel, drastically reducing the emissions per person from each journey. In some places, it is possible to run cars on more efficient fuels, like biodiesel or ethanol. In Brazil, for example, most of the country’s cars run on ethanol, locally-sourced from the country’s sugar cane industry. In more developed countries, there are now hybrid and electric cars for sale which produce much less emissions. Some electric cars can even be charged at normal household power sockets. For city dwellers, these are very green and can be very convenient, although for longer distances their use is limited. Some city authorities have made an effort to encourage the ownership of more efficient car models. In London, for example, electric cars have been exempted from the congestion charge levied on all vehicles entering the central city (Henson, 2008, p.346). Making air travel more efficient, by general consensus, seems to be a more intractable problem. Planes are making some gains in this sector, but at the same time, air travel is becoming cheaper and more popular year on year, so as to offset and gains being made. It seems that if people wish to reduce their carbon footprint, then at present they have little choice but trying to fly less. For some journeys, and especially domestic flights, it might be possible to use alternatives like trains and coaches, and when people do have to fly, most airlines have schemes of carbon offsetting (Henson, 2008, p.348), where passengers pay a supplement which will be invested in green energy and environmental schemes. The most sustained description of an alternative to current transport patterns for those who live in urban communities was provided by Monbiot, using a model developed by Storkey. The aim of this model was to reduce transport emissions to around 10% of their current levels, and in proving that this can be done with some relatively small adjustments (Monbiot, 2006, p.142). This scheme essentially advocates universal coach travel, given that coach travel has been found, somewhat unexpectedly, to be more efficient that rail travel. In endorsing Storkey’s scheme, Monbiot makes clear that some changes to the comfort and image of coach travel will have to be effected (2006, p.148). Storkey’s scheme envisages a system of coach stations situated outside of the city at motorway junctions, which would save time on journeys made into and out of city centres. Urban bus networks should then be extended to serve these junctions. Motorways, meanwhile, would be reconfigured, with dedicated bus lanes. As well as carbon efficiency, this system has the advantage of allowing existing roads to operate at much higher capacity. At present, the UK’s M25 motorway can, at maximum operation, accommodate some 15-20,000 people in cars, but would be able to accommodate some 260,000 in coaches (Monbiot, 2006, p.151). Those journeys within cities that couldn’t be replaced by this network of coaches and buses would then need to be improved using car-sharing, electric cars, and building better facilities for cyclists and walkers. This scheme is the most credible green alternative to urban transport patterns that was found in the course of reading, and one must agree with Monbiot’s call for action: ‘The longer governments prevaricate, the less plausible substantial change becomes’ (2006, p.169). It is clear that investment in infrastructure designed to accommodate private motor vehicles should be scaled back, and redirected to a new, comprehensive, and sustainable solution. References Department for Transport, 2005, The Future of Transport: Modelling & Analysis. Department for Transport, London. Dow, K & Downing, TE 2007, The Atlas of Climate Change: Mapping the World’s Greatest Challenge. University of California Press, Berkeley. Ehrenburg, I 1999, The Life of the Autmobile. Serpent’s Tail, London. Fred Singer, S & Avery, DT 2007, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years. Rowman & Littlefield, Plymouth. Garvey, J 2008, The Ethics of Climate Change: Right and wrong in a warming world. Continuum, London. Henson, R 2008, The Rough Guide to Climate Change. Rough Guides, London. Kolbert, E 2006, Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change. Bloomsbury, London. Maslin, M 2004, Global Warming: A very short introduction. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Monbiot, G 2006, Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning. Allen Lane, London/ Peake, S & Smith, J 2009, Climate Change: From Science to Sustainability. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Reay, D 2006, Climate Change Begins at Home. Macmillan, London. Stern, N 2007, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Storkey, A 2005, ‘A Motorway-based National Coach System’, alan@storkey.com. Read More