Formation and Prediction of Winter Storms - Research Paper Example

 WINTER STORMS A winter storm can be described as an instance in which most precipitations only take place at temperatures that are low enough for the formation of ice and that may also emerge as snow or sleet. The purpose of this paper is to understand, analyze and assess a variety of important aspects related to winter storms such as its formation, prediction and the relationship that it shares with climate change in order to contribute to a comprehension of how winter storms may occur in the future in terms of their intensity and frequency and what measures can be taken to develop an improved forecasting and data collection system to effectively manage our response to this natural phenomenon. Satellite images of winter storms suggest that the formation of the event in southern hemisphere appears to be like a comma which is upside down. There are certain factors related to temperature that are responsible for determining whether a winter storm would produce rain, snow or hail. Rain is produced if temperature near the surface is more than 0°C or 32°F. While, temperatures that are below the freezing point lead to the occurrence of snow. Hail, which is a precipitation in a solid state however, is a rare phenomenon during winter storms and mostly occurs during thunderstorms that take place in spring or summer. In understanding the reason behind what makes a winter storm stronger or more intense in nature, it can be assessed that the strength of a winter storm can be attributed to several factors, but the primary constituent in this regard is the “temperature gradient” which displays the comparison between the temperature of air to the north and the south, with north air being cold and south air being warm. One of the phenomenons associated with the event of winter storms is that of winter cyclones, even though, a standard definition for the latter has not been agreed upon Tsukernik describes the concept as a synoptic scale feature that generally lasts for a short period of time and covers the space of a at least a thousand kilometers or slightly more depending on its intensity. Both warm and cold fronts are associated with the formation of a winter cyclone, where a warm front can be defined as a density that forms because of the movement of warm air into a cold region while, a cold front is an exact opposite phenomenon in which a warm region experiences the movement of cold air. Allaby notes that the movement of a cold front is generally faster across the surface in comparison with warm fronts. Due to the difference in speed and movement as a cold front convenes with a warm front from behind, the meeting leads to the occurrence of what is known as an occlusion. Another important phenomenon caused by the “temperature gradient” or contrasting temperatures across Earth as well as the planet’s rotation is that of a jet stream, which is a current of air with a swifter movement compared to its neighboring air. The presence of jet streams is known to have been found 10 km above the surface in the northern hemisphere, and at 2-4 km above the surface in the Great Plain which travels from the Gulf of Mexico. The lack of accuracy particularly in snowfall predictions begs the question as to why such forecasts generally prove to be incorrect, but it is important to note that for the period of winter from 2009 till 2011, several snowstorm predictions with addition of the quantity of snowfall for the Northeast were highly accurate. There were only a limited number of cases in which the general public was ill-informed about the imminent weather situation. It has been observed that a fast occurring weather system or one which emerges from the ocean can be attributed to a poor or weak prediction of snowfall. Forecasts of winter storms in the past indicate that a certain measure of improvement by implementing a more rigorous procedure for future weather predictions is indeed required. For the said purpose, it is necessary for the forecasters, researchers and scientists to improve observational information and data pertaining to the wide range of information available from space, ground and air, this means organizing, reviewing and assessing information in the most effective manner so that a thorough compilation of data from all sources leads to the derivation of precise and correct conclusions. Furthermore, powerful machines, tools and devices such as computers used in forecasting methods and enhanced numerical and statistical models along with latest computer codes would also aid in the achievement of better forecasts of winter storms, given that experienced and knowledgeable forecasters assist effectively in the process. The field of technology is a fast-paced arena which is always contributing towards the betterment of possible approaches that can be implemented for the prediction of winter storms. These procedures have primarily consisted of statistical and quantitative models that were established in the 1950s soon after which the launch of satellites proved to be a ground-breaking innovation in the field of weather prediction. Even though, governments, universities, laboratories, public and private companies across the globe have been investing both time and financial resources to arrive at even better solutions for winter storm predictions, the recent years have not seen any noteworthy innovations in the area which are greatly required at this point in time as climate change and global warming make it a requirement for concerned departments to be prepared to face new challenges related to understanding, analyzing and predicting weather systems. Despite of the numerous measures that can be taken to further enhance the accuracy of winter storm predictions, there are certain limitations in how far in advance winter storms can be predicted. For example, weather systems that are broad can be predicted up to one to two weeks in advance, while, a forecast related to a snowfall in a particular area can be made one to two days before it takes place. Therefore, prediction of winter storms in this regard becomes variable depending upon the type of forecast being requested for. The accumulation of data over the largest ocean in the world – the Pacific Ocean, takes place via airplanes. The vast ocean is a key resource in understanding the nature of a wide range of events and it is important that a constant supply of fresh and up-to-date information is regularly received from such a critical location. Airplanes are favored over ships in data collection from the Pacific Ocean for three reasons; airplanes are more mobile compared to ships because they can venture into the most remote locations athwart the ocean where gathering information is pivotal for researchers, secondly, the cost-effectiveness of ships employed in field experiments lasting for a comparatively brief period has come under question as ships cannot be sent into ocean for periods long enough to gather substantial information, lastly, the records collected by ships are limited in nature as they fail to cover significant locations across the ocean which an airplane can cover in an economical and feasible manner. Consequently, other modes of research are being used to explore weather information related to the ocean, these methods include, moored buoys for observations on surface and Satellites for capturing images over the ocean. A fundamental aspect of analyzing winter storms would be to discuss the impact of climate change on the said phenomenon. Climate change raises such pivotal questions in our comprehension of winter storms and its related concepts such as how will the intensity of winter storms be affected by climate change? How will a change in climate affect the ability of forecasters to predict the occurrence of winter storms? How will Arctic Oscillation be affected by the globally changing climate? Do past trends in weather patterns, particularly in that of winter storms indicate any distinguishable patterns that should pose concern for scientists? Answering the first part of the questions that have been raised due to the onset of climate change, the fact remains that how the strength of winter storms will be affected is an inconclusive argument, even though, most researchers believe in the possibility that climate change will cause winter storms to become more intense and more frequent, this claim is not backed by definite and concrete evidence which is why it is best to leave it as an untested hypothesis. Furthermore, the ability of forecasters to predict winter storms as climate change becomes an international debate is an aspect of the relationship between the two phenomenons that also remains unanswered, however, it can be assumed that if the underlying principles related to the occurrence of winter storms do not change our ability to predict them would also remain unaffected. Commenting on the pattern of winter storms in the U.S in the past 10 years, researchers report no major events in such regions of the U.S that have been frequently impacted by severe cases of snowfall since the beginning of the 20th century. Additionally, studies also suggest that a trend in the number of ice storms in the country has not experienced any considerable change since the past 60 years. The only significant instance in the outline of winter storms since 1960 is the evidence of an increase in the occurrence of regional snowstorms that took place in a much lower frequency in the six decades before the year 1960. Arctic Oscillation which reports a principal pattern of the sea-level pressure not related to and regardless of any seasonal changes, however, will experience a shift in its pattern towards the polar section given the prevalence of climate change. Research also concludes that the aforementioned pattern and trend in Arctic Oscillation will prove to be a positive one. Some researchers as well as the general publics have questioned the possibility whether the magnitude of climate change can bring about such changes in weather that areas such as Miami also entertain a winter storm. Given the current direction at which climate change seems to be moving towards, it can be expected that Miami will never experience snow again, after reportedly receiving snowfall for the last time in 1970 even though, that even did not comprise of ground snowfall. Contrary to popular belief about the general weather conditions of Miami it should be reported that whenever the temperature falls below 70°F, cold fronts do occur in the city as a part of the winter season. As it is understood that a general consensus in the characterization of hurricanes does exist but the same cannot be said for winter storms. Due to the inexistence of a universal protocol which is and should be agreed upon by the global community of forecasters the rather controversial aspect of naming winter storms still remains persistent. This part of the paper will discuss the impact of naturally occurring events such the lake effect and El Nino on winter storms. The lake effect precipitation takes place during the winter season which results in the movement of cold air above a warmer body of water, causing the provision of moisture from the lake due to which snowfall happens in large flakes and is also much heavier. Diaz notes that the constitution of El Nino as a climatic anomaly and its widespread and extreme effects on an international scale makes it a source of fascination for many scientists who wish to deeply explore the consequences of El Nino on other natural events. The impact of El Nino on winter storms is such that during its presence winter storms supposedly move farther away towards the Southern region, furthermore, the quantity of snow around the Great Lakes during El Nino also experiences a decline. REFERENCES: Tsukernik, Maria, David N. Kindig, and Mark C. Serreze. "Characteristics of winter cyclone activity in the northern North Atlantic: Insights from observations and regional modeling." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 112.D3 (2007). p.g 34 Allaby, Michael. Hurricanes. Infobase Publishing, 2009. p.g 19 Diaz, Henry F., and Vera Markgraf, eds. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: multiscale variability and global and regional impacts. Cambridge University Press, 2000. p.g 174 Read More