Climate Change and Sea Level Rise - Annotated Bibliography Example

Gornitz, Vivien and Hartig, Ellen. “Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the New York Metropolitan Area”. Global and Planetary Change. 32(2002):60-88.Abstract The greater New York City region, with over 2400 km of shoreline, will be vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise (SLR) due to anticipated climate warming. Accelerated SLR would exacerbate historic trends of beach erosion and attrition of highly productive coastal salt marshes. Coastal populations in the region have swelled by around 17% (av.) and over 100% in some localities between 1960 and 1995. The coastal zone will thus be increasingly at risk to episodic flood events superimposed on a more gradual rise in mean sea level. Projections of sea level rise based on a suite of climate change scenarios suggest that sea levels will rise by 18–60 cm by the 2050s, and 24–108 cm by the 2080s over late 20th century levels. The return period of the 100-yr storm flood could be reduced to 19–68 years, on average, by the 2050s, and 4–60 years by the 2080s. Around 50% of the land surface of salt marsh islands have disappeared in Jamaica Bay since 1900. While losses prior to stricter environmental protection starting in 1972 can largely be attributed to anthropogenic activities, such as landfilling, dredging, and urbanization, further investigation is needed to explain more recent shrinkage. Given projected rates of SLR, and plausible accretion rates, these wetlands may not keep pace with SLR beyond several decades, resulting in severe loss. Hartig, Ellen et al. “Anthropogenic and Climate Change Impacts on Salt Marshes of Jamaica Bay, New York City”. Wetlands. 22(2002): 70-90. Abstract Field studies and aerial photograph interpretation suggest that large sections of Jamaica Bay salt marshes in New York City near John F. Kennedy International Airport are deteriorating rapidly. The relatively recent salt marsh losses may be caused by a variety of factors, potentially interacting synergistically. Possible factors include reduced sediment input, dredging for navigation channels, boat traffic, and regional sea-level rise. Field work included aboveground biomass measurements of Spartina alterniflora, mapping plant community distribution, and documenting biogeomorphological indicators of marsh loss. Current productivity (standing crop biomass), which ranged from approximately 700 to 1500 g m−2, was typical of healthy marshes in this region, in spite of other indicators of marsh degradation. Historical aerial photographs of several islands showed that sampled marshes have diminished in size by 12% since 1959. Overall island low marsh vegetation losses since 1974 averaged 38%, with smaller islands losing up to 78% of their vegetation cover. Ground observations indicate that major mechanisms of marsh loss include increased ponding within marsh interiors, slumping along marsh edges, and widening of tidal inlets. Projections of future sea-level rise, using outputs from several global climate models and data from local tide gauges, in conjunction with a range of plausible accretion rates, suggest that under current stresses, Jamaica Bay salt marshes are unlikely to keep pace with accelerated rates of sea-level rise in the future Colle, Brian et al. “New York City Storm Surges: Climatology and Analysis of the Wind and Cyclone Evolution”. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.49 (2010):85- 100. Abstract A climatological description (“climatology”) of storm surges and actual flooding (storm tide) events from 1959 to 2007 is presented for the New York City (NYC) harbor. The prevailing meteorological conditions associated with these surges are also highlighted. Two surge thresholds of 0.6–1.0 m and >1.0 m were used at the Battery, New York (south side of Manhattan in NYC), to identify minor and moderate events, respectively. The minor-surge threshold combined with a tide at or above mean high water (MHW) favors a coastal flood advisory for NYC, and the moderate surge above MHW leads to a coastal flood warning. The number of minor surges has decreased gradually during the last several decades at NYC while the number of minor (storm tide) flooding events has increased slightly given the gradual rise in sea level. There were no moderate flooding events at the Battery from 1997 to 2007, which is the quietest period during the last 50 yr. However, if sea level rises 12–50 cm during the next century, the number of moderate flooding events is likely to increase exponentially. Using cyclone tracking and compositing of the NCEP global reanalysis (before 1979) and regional reanalysis (after 1978) data, the mean synoptic evolution was obtained for the NYC surge events. There are a variety of storm tracks associated with minor surges, whereas moderate surges favor a cyclone tracking northward along the East Coast. The average surface winds at NYC veer from northwesterly at 48 h before the time of maximum surge to a persistent period of east-northeasterlies beginning about 24 h before the surge. There is a relatively large variance in wind directions and speeds around the time of maximum surge, thus suggesting the importance of other factors (fetch, storm duration and track, etc.). Raper, Simons and Braithwaite J. “Low Sea Level Rise Projections from Mountain Glaciers and Icecaps under Global Warming”. Nature. 439.19(2006):300-313 Abstract The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming1. Such projections of sea level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models, but model-average results from a mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100 (refs 1, 2). The largest contributions to sea level rise are estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m), with smaller inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (- 0.074 m)1. Here we apply a melt model3 and a geometric volume model4 to our lower estimate of ice volume5, 6, 7 and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps, as well as an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers, whose area declines rapidly in the 21st century, making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models, we project sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100, about half that of previous projections1, Read More