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Predicting Seismic Activity with Lunar Cycles - Research Paper Example

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Predicting Seismic Activity with Lunar Cycles Haider Cheema Abstract This paper will look into the claim made by Jim Berkland of being able to predict earthquakes on basis of Lunar cycles. The paper will be looking for the logic used behind the prediction process and what are the parameters for gauging success of a prediction…
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Download file to see previous pages The observations that go against the claim will also be analyzed. Observations or logics by critics against these claims will be taken into account and these will be judged and arguments made as to the strength of these claims. In the end the credibility of the predictions will be based on the evidence collected by forces pointing in favor or against this claim. The paper will be considering the lunar cycles linked with seismic activity. Minor factors used by Jim Berkland will be mentioned but the main focus will be relationship between lunar cycles and seismic activity. Predicting Seismic Activity with Lunar Cycles Introduction The earthquakes have devastating potential. The process is researched upon in detail and various theories and factors are presented over the years. The most accepted model for earthquakes is the theory of plate tectonics. The model, however, needs to be updated and many other factors contributing to earthquake that has been observed over the years needs to be incorporated. Investigations for involvement of new forces possible in earthquake predictions are under process. Some of the new indicators include the changes in ionosphere, radon emissions (radioactive element Rn 86), Earth’s magnetic field displacement and even animal behavior. These are just few indicators. Research over the years has and numbers of facts indicate the involvement of sun and moon in triggering earthquakes. As by (Pasichnyk, 2002) “In Tome Three, plate tectonics, more commonly known as continental drift, was discussed that brought forth the understanding that electrostatic forces are at work in producing tectonic plates’ dynamics. This understanding correlates solar activity and lunar phases and cycles with the triggering of earthquakes”. The subject of earthquake prediction, however, has been a matter of intense debate. There does not seem to be a general consensus. Different papers by Wyss (1997), Geller (1997), Scholz (1997) demonstrate diversity of the subject. Various seismologists base their predictions on different factors and observations. These predictions as per (Allen, 1976) must “Specify time window, space window, magnitude window, some indication of author’s confidence in reliability of prediction, indication of chances of earthquake occurring anyway as a random event and must be written and presented in accessible form so that data on failures are as easily obtained as data on success”. Bases of Predictions by Jim Berkland Jim Berkland bases his earthquake predictions mainly on the effects of gravitational tugs of the moon, sun and other planets. He also takes into account animal behavior as an indicator for an upcoming earthquake. Berkland has accurately predicted tremors based on these factors. His logics for the effects of lunar cycles on Earth’s seismic activity are discussed as under and each factor is analyzed in detail. Tides The gravitational pull of the moon is responsible for the ocean tides. This pull also acts on the crust; however, the effect is not enough. Recent studies have shown correlation between tides and earthquakes. Study by (Cochran, 2004) describes this relation “Study using global data hinted at an earthquake-tide correlation, suggesting that reverse and normal earthquakes correlate either with shear stress or the trace of the stress”. This correlation as per studies and observations ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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