Fire Risk Assessment - Event Tree Analysis, Business Continuity Plan, Cost-Benefit Analysis - Literature review Example

Fire Risk Assessment Course: Name: University: Date: Introduction Fires have been known to be one of the most rampant and catastrophic hazard of all times and has therefore been grouped together with the other natural disasters of great magnitude. This hazard has been known to claim thousands of lives and millions of property all over the world in the range of billions per year. In some developed countries like USA, Fire hazards have been reported to claim over 4000 lives incapacitating tens of thousands yearly. The losses due to fires also have been known to have grave impacts on the country’s economy demanding an average 41% of the total cost of all hazards combined annually. Some of the examples of great effects can be seen in fire like in; the Illinois Bell central exchange fire, the Buncefield fire incident, Chennai General Post Office fire in 2000, the Delhi Uphaar Cinema fire incident in 1997, Manchester airport fire in 2005 and the terminal fire at Dusseldorf airport in Germany 1996 etc. Some of the fire associated risks known include; death, loss of property, injury, disruption of services and even extensive damage. Some of the known causes of hazards in premises have been unmonitored fires, compromised or inefficient detection systems, open electricity terminals, open vents and even poor insulations, inadequate supervision to oversee and detect the possible causes of fires and risks, poorly build structures with no provision of fire management systems and also un-sensitized and untrained personnel or workers in the premises (Lowrance, 1996). Due to this rampancy of the fire hazards, the sates and also the local authorities have been put to task to ensure that there are safety guidelines and measures put in place to help mitigate this problem. Formulating of laws and drafting safety manuals to govern the construction of structures have been the top priority and keep advancing with time as the structural designs change. However, mechanisms used to implement safety regulations and measures can have serious consequences on both the people governing them and also the constructors if they are not analyzed and implemented fully. According to school of planning and architecture, (2008) a fire hazard is described as a circumstance in which there is an abnormal risk of harm by fire and fire related incidents to people or property within an area or location. There hazards can be anything that is a probable cause of danger to people during fire incidences. Examples of these hazards include toxic emitting materials and any items that block fire exits or extinguishing mechanisms. It is therefore paramount that every individual or responsible authority to ensure that he/she adheres to the rules of fire safety in order to save lives. According to Graeme et al, (2007) fire safety is the total process undertaken to ensure a safe environment and reduce the probability occurrence of fire incidents. Good management of fire safety is therefore important in order to deter the occurrence of unexpected events and risks and further have knowledge of how to contain them effectively and safely. Due to the importance of fire safety, it has been paramount that fire safety measure be married into the building regulations from the beginning of designs. To ensure fire safety, one has to starts with minimizing of the predisposing risk factors and also designing proper fire monitoring and management policies to provide a guideline. Most of the regulations one needs to adhere to and formulate policies on, are stipulated in the Fire Safety Act 1990, the Fire Safety Regulations 1991 and the NFPA 1600, 2007. Fire risk assessment Despite the many measures and policies formulated there is no single way to measure how much protection is adequate at a single instance. However, one of the ways one can know an efficient and adequate level is when there is cost benefit in investing on extra protection invested than in providing it. All this aspects of risk management can only be determined when one carries out risk assessment of the particular safety plan. According to many fire safety engineers, Fire risk assessment is defined as an exercise carried out to assess the hazards that can lead to fires and fire related risks, the probable impact and measures that can be implemented to mitigate the risks involved. This assessment involves determination of both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the risk (NFPA 1600 2007). This practice is therefore considered a major step in fire risks management. Description of …….. The IT Company is located within the town but on the peripherals of the town business center. The building is used by the company to provide room for offices necessary for their operation. The building occupied has only one main entrance and three fire exits on opposite peripheral walls of the offices. The office kitchen and the store are located on opposite sides of the office with access requiring criss-cross along the office premises. The building is designed in a form that it provides employees with alternative access to exits incase of fire emergencies other than the main entrance in the building. There are two doors in the building having a width of 5meters each located on the front side of the building. The premise is also covered on the outside with a big area between it and the outside perimeter. This area serves both as a parking lot and lawn. The inside of the building is also fitted with fire detection and fire extinguishers at specific locations like near the doors and the fire exits. The total number of fire detectors and alarms in the building are three and the fire extinguishers in place are seven in total. Due to the nature and design of the building, the premise is designed to accommodate a maximum of 200 people in it. Hazard list Hazard People at risk Control measures In place Risk ranking Further action Sources of Ignition Light fittings and lighting equipment All users of the building. In case of an electrical fault may lead to an explosion or fire that might spread to the whole premises. M Safety reviews should be done annually Deliberate ignition/arson All the people in the premises Arson might cause great explosions that might burn the whole building. The building is fitted with alarm systems and also fire extinguishers Fire detection systems are installed in the building. H Security measures should be enhanced to ensure no arson threats are posed. Obstruction of ventilation equipment All users of the building. In the events of fire the smoke can spread to the whole premise causing suffocation that can cause death. There are ventilation systems in the premise and fire detection systems in place. Also the vents are fitted in almost every wall and complimented by windows. L Ventilation systems should be fitted in prime positions to enhance their function. Office electrical equipment including PCs, printers, etc The staff in the premises. In event of any mechanical fault the electrical appliance might cause an uncontrollable fire. Electricians and office technicians check out the equipments annually to check on any faults. The equipments used in the office must have passed the PAT testing. L Office equipments should be checked regularly to ensure that their status pose no threat. Faulty equipments should be removed from business premises until repaired. Open ducts and loose terminals All users of the building Electricians and carryout repairs on any faulty electrical terminals. Safety regulations stipulated are adhered to and evaluated annually. M Open terminals should be sealed completely or covered with necessary covers Sources of fuel Furniture, cushions and soft furnishing All users of the building Combustible materials are kept away from flames. L Fire resistant furniture should be used mostly Excessive storage of books, stationery and office equipment The staff in the building. Combustible materials are easy sources of fuel. Combustible materials are stored away from fires. L Office bulk should be reduced and most data stored electronically Fuel stored All users of the building Fuel used in the premises is kept away from combustibles in no flammable compartments. Fire Wardens conduct office inspections which keeps check of office fires safety. M Fuel should be stored outside in separate structures that are fire resistant. Management Systems & procedures Lack of adequate fire detection systems All users of the building Failure of fire detection systems may result to spread of the fire to an unsustainable magnitude before containment measures come into play. The premise has fire detection systems installed in different locations. L More fire detection systems should be installed Lack of system testing All users of the building Lack of system check to ensure efficiency can become hazardous in fire incidences. The fire wardens under the supervision of SLO carry audits of the system annually. Fire wardens’ carryout emergency drills once annually to determine the system efficiency. L Systems performance should be tested at least twice a year by licensed fire safety officers. Poor Crowd Control All users of the building People stampedes and crowds make it hard to ensure safety in normal conditions and mainly during fire incidences. Security personnel ensure there is order in people movement in and out of the building. The building has written signs indicating to the exits necessary. M Security personnel should assist in controlling the numbers of people in the building Lack of adequate fire warning system All users In fire incidences there is no means to alert people may lead to increased casualties and slow response. Office supplies are well managed and stored in shelves and cupboards. The building is also fitted with fire alarms. H More advanced and additional warning systems should be installed Poor evacuation procedures All users of the building. During fire incidences confusion can lead to casualties and injuries. It can also lead to slow response in containing the fire. Fire wardens responsible for evacuation are situated within the building. The building is also equipped with direction signs. The building is also equipped with numerous fire exits. L Better evacuation plans should be designed and implemented by safety officers Poor room compartmentation All users of the building. Poor room compartments can lead to quick spread to adjacent rooms. The walls used to compartmentalize the rooms are made from fire resistant material and the outer walls made of bricks. M Office walls should be ensured they adhere to the new building regulations. The building materials should be ensured they are made or fire resistant materials and fitted with smoke seals at the doors Ineffective fire management systems All users of the building. Poor management systems cannot be able to put in place measures to detect, contain or prevent fire incidences. There are pre designed fire management plan. Fire wardens are responsible for formulating fire management policies. L The organizations fire management systems should be reviewed and redesigned by a qualified fire safety officer. Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) This analysis tries to summarize the hazards involved in the area of study, indicating on the possible effects it may cause, its frequency and the measures put in place to contain it in case of fire incidences. This study helps one to be able to make risk analysis and to rank the risks involved. This study is carried out by a specific team responsible for implementing safety strategies for an organization and acts as a basis for the plans to be implemented. Comments Impact Rank Frequency Contingency (s) warning devices Effect Possible accident Trigger (s) Hazard location Source of hazard Ref No Safety reviews should be done annually Medium low Fire extinguishers Fire alarms Loss of property Explosion and fires Electrical faults The building Light fittings and lighting equipment 1 Security measures should be enhanced to ensure no arson threats are posed. High Low Fire alarms, fire exits and extinguishers Fire alarms, security systems Casualties and damage of property Fires and explosions Individuals The building Deliberate ignition/arson 2 Ventilation systems should be fitted in prime positions to enhance their function. low low Fire extinguishers and technical personnel Fire alarms Deter people from escaping explosion Accumulated heat and smoke The building Obstruction of ventilation equipment 3 Office equipments should be checked regularly to ensure that their performance pose no threat. Faulty equipments should be removed from business premises until repaired. Low High Fire extinguishers and technical personnel responsible for monitoring equipment status. Fire alarms, security system Injury and damage of equipment Explosion and fires Electrical fault The premise Office electrical equipment including PCs, printers, etc 4 Open terminals should be sealed completely or covered with necessary covers. Medium Low Fire extinguishers and electrical personnel Security system and alarms Spread of fire to other areas Explosion and fires Initialize of electrical sparks The staff Open ducts and loose terminals 5 Fire resistant furniture should be used mostly Low low Fire extinguishers and fire exits Fire alarms Spread of fire Fires Provide fuel necessary to sustain fire The building Furniture, cushions and soft furnishing 6 Office bulk should be reduced and most data stored electronically Medium Medium Fire extinguishers Fire alarms Spread of fire and spread of fire Fires Spread of fire The building Excessive storage of stationery and office equipment 7 Fuel should be stored outside in separate structures that are fire resistant. Medium Low Fire extinguishers, fire exits Fire alarms and security systems Spread of fire deterring evacuation Explosion Allow more combustion The staff and the building Fuel stored 9 More fire detection systems should be installed High Low Security systems, fire extinguishers Fire alarms, security systems Spread of fire deterring evacuation Explosion and fire Allow onset and spread of fire to other places The staff Lack of adequate fire detection systems 10 Systems performance should be tested at least twice a year by licensed fire safety officers. Low Low Security personnel Security systems, fire alarms Failure of response during fire incidences Explosion and fires Allow undetected spread of fire to other places The staff Lack of system testing 11 Security personnel should assist in controlling the numbers of people in the building Medium Medium Exits, security personnel Security systems and fire exits Hard to contain fires and evacuate Fires, injuries and deaths Makes it hard to evacuate building and contain hazard People in the building Poor Crowd Control 12 More advanced and additional warning systems should be installed High Low Fire extinguishers Fire alarms Takes long to respond to fire incidences Extreme damage to property Fires can spread from one place to the other before containment The building Lack of adequate fire warning system 13 Better evacuation plans should be designed and implemented by safety officers Low Low Fire exits, security personnel fire wardens, evacuation procedure Takes long to evacuate and contain hazard High numbers of casualties and injuries Allow high probability of casualties People in the building Poor evacuation procedures 14 Office walls should be ensured they adhere to the new building regulations. The building materials should be ensured they are made or fire resistant materials and fitted with smoke seals at the doors. Medium low Fire extinguishers and fire alarms Fire resistant building materials Deters evacuation from building, and fire fighting Explosion, fire. Allow spread of fires and smoke from one room to the next people and the building Poor room compartme-ntation 15 The organizations fire management systems should be reviewed and redesigned by a qualified fire safety officer. Low Low Fire systems and security systems Fire detection systems, Inhibit effective mitigation and containment during fire incidences Catastrophic fires and explosions Fires and explosion The staff and the building Ineffective fire management systems 16 Risk Ranking Risk is described as the probability of occurrence of an unwanted but potential danger. It is the combination of probability and impact of occurrence of the consequence of the specific event. Among the probabilities of risk occurrence some may include; repeating occurrence, known to occur, could occur, not likely to occur, practically impossible to occur. This are determined by just mare observation and also inquisition from the specific people subjected to the risk of the hazard. While ranking risks therefore it is important that one first understands the likelihood of the risk occurrence and further the consequences involved. Without either of the two, there is no way one can be able to measure the magnitude of effect that any of the risks can cause at any one time and rank it. Some of the examples of consequences/impacts can be; fatality or permanent disability, serious illness or injury, moderate injury or illness, minor injury, no fatality or injury. Bearing in mind the impact and the likelihood/probability of occurrence of the risk to the specific community, it then becomes easier for one to combine and rank the risks in order of their weight/priority. Risk ranking is done using the formula (likelihood × impact) of the hazard. In this the highest risk number awarded to the greatest risk is 1. While combining the likelihoods and the impact, events are ranked according to the magnitude of their impact. If an event affects more than one area or has multiple consequences then it is awarded the highest ranking number 1 and the others follow in order of their impact/consequence. Some of the impacts are sometimes expressed in form of costs incurred/financial impacts. Probabilities/ frequency can be represented as; A- High B- Moderate C- Low D- Very rare to occur Consequences/ impact also can be grouped according to the magnitude they can have to the premises or assets, also people involved and the time span involved in regard to the organization respectively. For these they can also be ranged as either; 1 – Extensive/ catastrophic damage. (Critical injury and fatality) 2 – Serious but manageable damage. (Critical injury) 3 – Moderate damage but manageable (Serious injury) 4 - Minor damage (Minor injury) 5 – Minimal damage that is manageable (No casualty involved or injury) Operations effect (delay) 1 - More than a year delay of operation. 2 – A few months delay in operation 3 – A week to a month delay 4 – one to two days delay of operation. 5 - Less than a day delay The above mentioned hazards can therefore be ranked in order of their impact in regard to the above factors; probability* impact (the more the impacts the higher the risk rank) the level of the risks is shown in the preliminary hazard analysis. Hazard Likelihood Risk rank Light fittings and lighting equipment Low 14 Deliberate ignition/arson Low 10 Obstruction of ventilation equipment Low 12 Office electrical equipment including PCs, printers, etc High 1 Open ducts and loose terminals Low 5 Furniture, cushions and soft furnishing Low 11 Excessive storage of stationery and office equipment Medium 8 Fuel stored Low 7 Lack of adequate fire detection systems Low 3 Lack of system testing Low 13 Poor Crowd Control Medium 4 Lack of adequate fire warning system Medium 2 Poor evacuation procedures Low 9 Poor room compartme-ntation Low 6 Event Tree Analysis Trees have been used and developed in many fields to aid in risk assessment by breaking different factors into contributing factors. Trees are connected graphs that show how events lead to each other and how they relate to make a concise flow of logic. The fault tree involves the faults in a situation and converts them into contributing factors of analysis; success tree on the other hand assesses the strengths and also uses them as factors of analysis. An event tree however is the one that is mostly used in decision making and it is a bottom-up safety system analytical technique (Center for process safety, 1992). The event tree is mostly used in management systems and also physical systems with no human operations. None the less, these techniques act as complimentary to each other when it comes to analysis. According to Center for process safety, (1992) the event tree analysis aims to majorly looks at the responses of a system in initiating challenges thus making it possible for one to carry out a probability assessment of the failure or success of the system. Event trees are also majorly applied when the data on the frequency of outcomes of concern is little and inconsistent. Examples of challenges that an event tree can be used include; in assessing an epidemic outbreak, utility system failure and safety system response etc. When calculating the outcomes of specific branches of the event diagram is given by multiplying the initiating frequency F and the conditional probabilities of success and/or failure, (PS and PF respectively). Example: F = F·PS1·PF2 (Vesely, 2002) Business Continuity Plan (BCP) A Business continuity planning (BCP) is a logical layout of practiced and validated procedures on how an organization intends to recover and reinstate critical operational functions within a predetermined time after a disaster (Harney, 2004). The business continuity plan involves various stages and these stages since they follow each other systematically are easily represented by a flow chart. An example; In this case, during the fire incidences the management has to formulate an option that is going to ensure that most of the information contained in the facility can be recovered. Further the management has to ensure that there is an alternative strategy to ensure that they get back in business within the shortest time. For instance the organization is going to have alternative mechanisms of saving information for example IT oriented instead of having hard copy of the data only. This is going to enable to enable them easily recover their information after the disaster and use it to operate before full recovery to original state. Also, having alternative or even addition space/facility to use within area of reach for the staff that is acceptable by the government standards may help ensure continuity of business. The organization also should have an alternative mechanism of contacting their clients and other important business acquaintances. Have alternative room that is well equipped to move necessary operation offices and staff to on the onset of the fire incidence. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Cost benefit analysis is carried out purposefully to establish the degree at which the planned action will achieve its goal, i.e. how well/ how poor the turn out will be (John, 2010).When calculating the cost benefit analysis it is important to first weigh the options of the developments that are to be put in place. The systems to be implemented benefits must outweigh the costs involved in maintaining and also of installation of the systems. In order to be able to compute this, it is paramount that the management involved has to carry out an investment appraisal of the new installation. Since the cost benefit analysis parameters are expressed mostly in financial values, some of the key cost benefit indicators used in the world includes: net present value (NPV), present value of benefits (PVB), present value of costs(PVC), benefit cost ratio (BCR = PVB / PVC), Net benefit (= PVB - PVC) and NPV/k (where k is the level of funds available at the time) (Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects, 2002). Reliability Study A reliability study is important when planning on the choice of safety plans to be implemented and also on the mechanisms in place. In this a survey is carried out in the premise and even compared to others of similar or nearly similar nature to evaluate the sustenance and efficiency of different safety mechanisms. The reliability study collects all the information on the faults and the failures of a system and makes recommendations necessary towards improvement of the various systems. An example of the aspects that can be captured while carrying such kind of study in this organization is; the number of incidences reported per system and date of occurrence, cause of the incident, concerned aspects of the system, the extent of the impact on the systems operation and for how long, and the extent to which the system was able to correct the incident. Utility study According to Burke, et al., (1986) utility study is a quantitative method that measures the monetary satisfaction value derived from an intervention made in an aim to improve efficiency. This study has been known to be employed mainly in evaluating the employees’ performance compared to the monetary value of the interventions put in place. Since it is a study that relies on variables that have to be measured practically/quantified, there are some basic indicators are identified. These are just designations that are aimed at making it easier for one to detect fault in the operations of individual processes (Burke, et al., 1986). These indicators identify; methods for measuring productivity of individual roles, means of attaching monetary value to a particular role of the system, the cost of any defect in performance, and also a mechanism to measure the cost of intervention's. References Burke, Michael J. & Frederick, James T., 1986. A comparison of economic utility estimates for alternatives SDy estimation procedures. Journal of Applied Psychology. Center for process safety, 1992. Guidelines for Hazard Evaluation Procedures. 2nd Edition with worked examples. American institute of Chemical Engineers. Graeme F , Asif U., Susan L., Barbara L, and Jose T., 2007. Structural Response of Tall Buildings to Multiple Floor Fires, Journal of Structural Engineering. Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects, 2002. Evaluation Unit, DG Regional Policy, European Commission. Harney, J., 2004. Business continuity and disaster recovery: Back up or shut down. AIIM. John F., 2010. Cost Benefit Analysis; Running The Numbers. About.com Guide retrieved on 19th Jan 2010. Lowrance W., 1996. “Science and the determination of safety.” Publisher Inc. Los Altos California. NFPA 1600, 2007. Standard on Disaster/Emergency Management and Business Continuity Programs. National Fire Protection Association. School of planning and architecture, (2008) Fire hazards in metro cities of India: monograph on Fire hazards. Environmental information system. India. Vesely, W., (2002) Fault Tree Handbook with Aerospace Applications. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Read More