Tesla Cars - New Benchmarks, The Elements of Change, Baby Steps toward Driverless Cars, Future Market - Case Study Example

TESLA CAR Name Institution Course Professor Date Table of Contents Tesla Cars Introduction Connected cars will in the future change the driving experience worldwide in only a few years. While technology is taking over driving from the humans, it will in the future considerably reduce serious accidents, traffic congestion, as well as reduce time wastage. The autonomous vehicles’ widespread adoption in the roads would most likely have an enormous impact than what people are experiencing now. In the future, driverless cars would be beneficial to the society since they will restore the independence of people who cannot drive, like the disabled or elderly who are presently unable to drive. Furthermore, if driverless cars would enable humans to live independently, it will become cheaper to keep people in hospitals or residential homes. Furthermore, autonomous vehicles would help people living in the areas that do not have integrated transport network and those who currently cannot access cars would gain from the increase in shared ownership. The future cars would result in reduced and more predictable journeys since people will be integrating themselves with real-time traffic flow management as well as maintenance of roads. The travellers’ time would be utilised more gainfully; thus, leading to improved productivity. Tesla and other companies which are currently gaining from consumers that are digitally connected would undoubtedly be well placed to cash in on such changes. New Benchmarks As pointed out by Randall (2016), Tesla has started pushing for Autopilot driver-assist technology in spite of a deadly accident that happened in early 2016 which led to a U.S. safety investigation. According to Elon Musk, driving with Autopilot is safer as compared to driving without it; therefore, this offers new benchmarks for successful future. Besides that Tesla has started focusing on the ride -sharing plans which would enable the company to compete with companies like city taxis, Lyft, and Uber. By tapping on an application, the drivers would be able to turn their cars into a self-driving taxi. In consequence, the driver would be able to generate money (Randall, 2016). As mentioned by Sharma et al. (2016, p.8590), Electric Vehicles (EVs) have for many years been on the government’s radar and by 2020, at least one in 20 cars will be equipped with electrified power trains. Basically, the battery EVs and plug-in hybrid are projected to take hold of a certain percentage of the market share. Merely 0.01% of vehicles are expected by 2020 to have fuel cells. The total number of electric vehicles sold annually across the globe has increased tremendously; for instance, the number of units sold in 2011 was approximately 45,000 units but increased to over 300,000 units in 2014 (Sharma et al., 2016, p.8590). Since their introduction, automobiles have significantly changed and the improvements pace is increasing particularly with regard to progress in managing their negative impacts. A number of futurists envisage the manifestation of autonomous vehicles, the self-driving cars on the near future. In 2015, Mercedes-Benz launched its first driverless car, the F-105 luxury vehicle (Lewis, 2015). The front seats of the car could swivel in order that front-seat passenger as well as the driver could sit facing the back-seat passengers. Besides that, BMW has also introduced an electric vehicle, i3 EV which could park itself and also look for open spaces in a parking garage. A number of analysts, as mentioned by, Lewis (2015) have projected that new manufacturers like Apple and Google would displace conventional mass automakers such as Volkswagen, Honda, Ford, and General Motors with their advantage on new technology. It has also been predicted that families will own fewer cars because a single car would serve different members simultaneously and sequentially devoid of waiting for the driver. A driverless car would, for instance, go back home after delivering a family member to the work so as to transport other family members to their desired destinations. The car will in the evening return to pick up the commuters from their workplaces. In the future, shared mobility would tremendously improve since people will be able to use cars even if they do not own them. The Elements of Change Without a doubt, significant improvements would in the future lessen the negative effects associated with automobiles. The first element is design, the first cars looked like horse-drawn carriages but they were later replaced by simple wheeled boxes. The early automakers did not understand aerodynamics, which is the resistance created when an object moves through the air. This is commonly referred as a drag, which normally increases proportionately with the car’s speed. Therefore, the car shape directly influences affects the energy that the vehicle consumers while moving forward. Besides that, increased speed results in increased lift, which is the propensity of the vehicle body to ascend from the surface of the road because of the air that flows below vehicle; thus, decreasing stability and traction during turns. Automotive design engineers started using wind tunnels with the aim of reducing sharp edges as well as improving streamlining. In so doing, lift, drag as well as energy consumption are reduced. In view of this, the future cars would likely be shorter with additional curves and the passengers’’ interior space would be increased. Materials would be another element of change considering that the weight of the car directly influences the fuel consumed while operating. Between 1975 and 2009, the University of Washington observed that the prevalent utilisation of lightweight materials, unibody construction, and reduced engine size led to the reduction of the average weight of the automobile by approximately 1,700 pounds (Lewis, 2015). Still, nearly all advantage has been offset by the increasing size of the vehicles and additional functionality. The increasing pressure from the federal government towards the automakers to improve fuel economy by making fuel efficient cars would lead to high utilisation of lightweight composite materials, aluminium, steel as well as plastics. This would consequently lead to reduced car weight as well as enhanced crashworthiness. The body of Tesla Roadster, for instance, is made from lightweight carbon fibre composite whose strength is similar to that of still steel and weighs 30 per cent less. Given that the costs of producing materials have dropped, Lewis (2015) posits that more manufacturers have shifted their attention towards innovative new composite materials to make cars. Mechanical efficiency is another crucial element of change given that automobiles have for many decades sourced their power from the four-stroke internal combustion engine. Recently, the widespread utilisation of engine control unit has led to constant engine diagnosis as well as improved fuel efficiency. As a result, transmissions have become more effective, the manual shifting has evolved to automatic shifting. Enhanced hydraulics has facilitated easy power steering while stopping time has been reduced enormously by improved fuel efficiency. Baby Steps toward Driverless Cars When Prius was introduced by Toyota in 1997, Uber, Google, and Tesla did not exist, but they are currently the major players in the automobile industry. Tesla has worked tirelessly to introduce cars that are fully autonomous in the coming few years while other companies like Uber have in recent times established an R&D with the aim of ushering a driverless future. Bogost (2016) posits that self-driving vehicles would in the future become safer as compared to those driven by humans. Still, if the driverless cars become commercially viable, the majority of people would reluctantly relinquish driving completely. The traditional vehicles would slowly take over particular driving aspects. Whereas the traditional manufacturers are progressively adding semiautonomous features into their cars, Tesla has decided to take the most aggressive approach. In 2015, they added the ‘autopilot’ feature into their Model S vehicles, whereby thee cars would frequently drive themselves, but still can be intervened by the driver. Every time an intervention is made by the driver, the correction is registered by Tesla with the aim of improving autopilot driving in the future. According to Bogost (2016), Tesla’s recently updated its software to make it possible for the drivers to ‘summon’ their cars. This would in the future allow the cars to turn themselves on, open the door of the garage, as well as meet the commuter in the driveway. In the future, there will be applications like Waze, which enable drivers to alert other drivers about accidents or traffic jams. In next to no time, vehicles would contribute automatically to the shared traffic mesh and would also rout information by means of car-to-car communication systems. Digital Disruption As pointed out by Gao et al. (2014), the automobile of the future would be connected in real time and would be able to communicate with other cars in the road. Such features would be must-haves for every vehicle; thus, the future cars will become more like multiple technologies’ integrators, larger mobility network components, and prolific data centres. Given that all vehicles would be a source for transmitting and receiving data, efficiency and receiving would have to be improved and Tesla should be able to capture important data. Many of the advanced modern vehicles are attributed to electronic innovations. As indicated by Gao et al. (2014), digital technology predicts change into the economic model of the automobile industry. In the last few decades, many automobile companies have invested heavily in the performance-oriented and mechanical features, like gadgetry as well as horsepower, which lead to improved returns. However, this dynamic has started shifting; In the U.S, a squeeze has been developed as the cars’ content requirements in safety and emissions. The shift towards solid-state systems will in the future generate new opportunities for improving the economics of the automakers. Analysing real-time road data would certainly improve the effectiveness of marketing and sales. Additionally, digital manufacturing would dramatically improve productivity: virtual modelling, as well as big data simulations, would reduce development costs and accelerate time to market. Given that the automobiles are becoming more and more digitally enabled, the connected services would become successful in the future. After the driving demands have been lifted, the vehicles’ interiors would offer Tesla and other automakers opportunities to make money from the car time and occupants’ connectivity. The automobile industry digitalisation would lead to numerous challenges and opportunities. For instance, disruptive technologies would enable Tesla to leapfrog the current market leaders relying on established competencies. Besides that, it will become very challenging to attract talent since the core of automotive engineering and research would shift towards software-driven innovation hubs, like Bangalore, Tel Aviv, or Silicon Valley. In addition, getting actionable data would turn out to be more and more critical for the operation of safety features, drive trains, systems, and more. The Future Market Presently, human errors result in approximately 90% of all accidents, but the autonomous with improved crashworthiness are just round the corner (Gao et al., 2014). Almost all major automakers and numerous other technology companies have invested in autonomous drive technology (Deloitte, 2016, p.10). Companies like Local Motors, GM, and Ford are already developing sophisticated, 3D printing (additive manufacturing) techniques with the aim of supporting engineering as well as the production of customised vehicles. A number of companies, as cited by Deloitte (2016, p.10) are inclined to bring different, affordable EVs in the near future. According to Deloitte (2016, p.5), the number of shared autonomous cars, in the United States, will be exceedingly high between 2035 and 2040 (see figure one). Figure 1: New Vehicle Sales Distribution Forecast (Deloitte, 2016, p.5) The introduction of different autonomous features into the car would lead to additional high margin revenues. Jiang et al. (2015, p.6) project autonomous car market would be fastest growing market by 2025. In 2014, autonomous features resulted in an additional revenue of $30 billion and this is projected to grow to over $250B by 2030 (Jiang et al., 2015, p.6). By 2030, 25 per cent of the total cars would be self-driving and new entrants, especially Google would by 2035 capture 8 per cent of the total market. As evidenced in figure two below, the number of cars would by 2030 exceed 2 billion and half of these cars would either be self-driving or autonomous cars. Figure 2: Projections for Global Car Market (Jiang et al., 2015, p.6) Besides that, Europe, as well as the United States, would be the self-driving and autonomous cars early adopters. Still, China would by 2030 most probably overtake Europe to become the second largest car market (see figure three). Figure 3: Global Car Market by Region (Jiang et al., 2015, p.6) According to Gao et al. (2016, p.6), the automotive industry’s growth is accelerating, mainly because of the new streams of revenue, which includes data connectivity and shared mobility services also the growing the worldwide macroeconomic growth in the developing countries. The new business models steered by connectivity services, shared mobility, as well as feature upgrades would expand the revenue pools of the automakers by approximately 30%; thus, increasing up to USD 1.5 trillion (Gao et al., 2016, p.6). Mobile technology advancement, according to Morgan Stanley (2016), would enable people to easily summon their cars using their mobile devices; thus, making sharing more convenient. 3D Printing According to Brannigan (2016), a number of companies like Divergent Microfactories and Local Motors have totally reinvented the processes of designing, manufacturing, and driving vehicles through 3D printing. Local Motors’ Strati is the first 3D-printed EV and was manufactured in only 44 hours using an industrial-sized three-dimensional printer. Divergent Microfactories’ is also a 3D-printed car that gains a speed of 60 MPH in only 2.2 seconds to make it faster as compared to the existing sports cars. The use of 3D printers will in the future enable automakers to reduce wastage and improve their carbon footprint. 3D printing, according to Bekiaris (2015), would make production happen faster, would increase flexibility in design, suppliers would be eliminated, and automakers’ environmental impact would be reduced. In early 2017, Ford tested the first large-scale production of car parts using 3D printing technology with the aim of enabling the drivers to customise vehicles cheaply. Without a doubt, 3-D printing would become a breakthrough for car production leading to improved efficiency (Kharpal, 2017) Conclusion In conclusion, even though the mobility of the country (the way people travel from one point to another) will considerably be different in the future as compared to what it is at present, determining how it would be different is very challenging. A number of changes are happening slowly in the automobile world, while some are occurring relatively fast. For instance, the demographic changes are happening relatively slowly, but China’s trend indicates a population growth rates that are rapidly slowing as well as an aged population structure. Therefore, investing in technologies that would change travel patterns could take place swiftly; for instance, a decade ago China moved from high-speed rail less towards the most extensive network in the world. Such kind of changes could significantly influence the travel demand. Clearly, the technology-driven trends would transform how automakers react to the changing consumer behaviour, drive transformational change, and develop partnerships. The world’s economy is changing dramatically because of technology advancements, emerging markets development, changing consumer preferences as well as sustainability policies. References Bekiaris, J., 2015. The Future of Making Cars: How 3D Printing Will Revolutionise the Auto Industry. [Online] Available at: HYPERLINK "https://3dprint.com/111644/3d-printing-revolutionize-auto/" https://3dprint.com/111644/3d-printing-revolutionise-auto/ [Accessed 9 May 2017]. Bogost, I., 2016. When Cars Fly: How driverless vehicles could change meetings, manufacturing, safety, and more. [Online] Available at: HYPERLINK "https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/when-cars-fly/476382/" https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/when-cars-fly/476382/ [Accessed 9 May 2017]. Brannigan, T., 2016. A Bright 3D-Printed Future for Cars. [Online] Available at: HYPERLINK "http://www.dmv.org/articles/a-bright-3d-printed-future-for-cars/" http://www.dmv.org/articles/a-bright-3d-printed-future-for-cars/ [Accessed 9 May 2017]. Deloitte, 2016. The future of mobility: What’s next? Tomorrow’s mobility ecosystem—and how to succeed in it. Westlake, TX : Deloitte University Press. Gao, P., Hensley, R. & Zielke, A., 2014. A road map to the future for the auto industry. [Online] Available at: HYPERLINK "http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-road-map-to-the-future-for-the-auto-industry" http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-road-map-to-the-future-for-the-auto-industry [Accessed 9 May 2017]. Gao, P., Kaas, H.-W., Mohr, D. & Wee, D., 2016. Automotive revolution – perspective towards 2030. Munich: Advanced Industries McKinsey & Company. Jiang, T. et al., 2015. Self-Driving Cars: Disruptive or Incremental? Applied Innovation Review, (1), pp.3-22. Kharpal, A., 2017. Ford is 3-D printing car parts which could mean more customized vehicles. [Online] Available at: HYPERLINK "http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/ford-3d-printing-car-parts-which-could-mean-more-customized-vehicles.html" http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/ford-3d-printing-car-parts-which-could-mean-more-customized-vehicles.html [Accessed 9 May 2017]. Lewis, M., 2015. 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Sharma, K.V.M., Kulkarni, M.R., Veerendra.G.P & N, K., 2016. Trends and Challenges in Electric Vehicles. International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 5, no. 5, pp.8589-96. Read More