A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models - Case Study Example

CASE STUDY Name Course Tutor Institutional Affiliation City Date: CASE STUDY Invisible hand Adam Smith pointed out that, every individual strives to deliver the yearly proceed of the civilization as immensely as he can. However, he did not endorse the communal concern and did not know the measure that by which he could endorse. Smith pointed out that every person strives to become wealthy, purposing only his own benefit, but he must exchange what he owns or fabricates with others who sufficiently treasure what he has to provide. This is well accomplished through the dissection of labor and gratis marketplace, communal attention is sophisticated in the end. An invisible hand procedure is one in which the result to be elucidated is fabricated in a distributed manner without any explicit accords between the acting elements. The other significant element is that the procedure is not intentional since the agents` objectives are neither harmonized nor indistinguishable with real result that is a byproduct of the objectives (Akram 2009, p. 840). The procedure ought to function even without the agents having any know-how regarding it, and this is the reason why the procedure is termed or regarded as invisible. The structure in which the ‘invisible hand’ is mainly occasionally thought to operate is the competitive marketplace structure. Adam believed that clients select for the lowest price and business people select for the most elevated rates of proceeds. He affirmed that by producing their surplus or inadequate stipulate branded through marketplace charges, clients led capitalists` venture capital to the mainly gainful production. Such industry is the one that fabricates the merchandise most highly treasured by valued by clients. The ‘invisible hand,’ an expression utilized by Smith to depict the natural might that direct free marketplace entrepreneurship through competition for scarce resources. In Adam`s affirmation, it is clear that in a free market each partaker will try to maximize self-interest and the interrelation of market partakers. These result to exchange of goods and services, and thereby enabling every partaker to be better off than when simply fabricating merchandise for their own use. Adam still asserted that in a free market no regulation of any sort will be required to make sure that the mutually beneficial exchange of merchandise and services took place (Akram 2009, p. 840). This is because the invisible hand would guide market partakers to deal with the most communally advantageous ways, hence fulfilling market allocative efficiency. Here, the cost P of merchandise is distinct by equilibrium amid fabrication at every charge (‘supply S’) in addition to the need of those with buying authority at every outlay (stipulate D). Furthermore, from Smith`s time, the principle of invisible hand has been further incorporated into economic theory where Walras advanced a four-equation general equilibrium prototype that concludes that individual self-interest operating in a competitive market fashions the unique settings under which a community`s overall utility is capitalized on. Crude oil Goods generated from crude oil To start with, the first category of product from crude oil regard plastics where stretchy shirts or pairs of pants most likely contains processed crude oil elements. Moreover, the rubber contained in artificial leather and other fabrics is fabricated by utilizing some sort of crude oil production. Plastics comprising of cooking utensils, vehicles, and machine parts, insulation, tires use oil at some stage in their fabrication. The other category of products comprises of medicines where certain aspirins, antiseptics as well as sulfa drugs comprise crude oil products. Sulfa medicine’s (sulfonamides’ [‘antibacterial’ medicines, ‘diuretics,’ and ‘anticonvulsants’]). Alcohols depict another category of merchandise containing ‘crude oil,’ and oil can be comprised in the number of ‘solvents’ ‘astringents,’ ‘cosmetics,’ and tastes (Akram 2009, p. 840). The other key product category concerns Asphalts where petroleum products are used in manufacturing them. The asphalts comprise of those used for shingles, paving, insulation, and paint. This sort of merchandise is vital in the construction of structures and infrastructure (roads). Asphalts are core elements in upholding and defining the standard of living for first world status. Increasingly, oils and wax which form lubricants, greases, and oils are fabricated by some sort of significant petroleum merchandise. Major generators of Crude Oil It is clear that the US will remain as the world`s biggest oil producer after overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia as extraction of energy from shale rock spurred the country`s economic recovery. The US augments supply is a very essential chunk of oil and output will surge to about 13.09 million barrels a day in the year 2020. Iraq is the second largest producer in the OPEC after Saudi Arabia but oil flows have been disrupted following concerns of the gains made by the Islamic State in northern Iraq. Libya is another large producer of oil but its production was reduced by protests and this is set to change after the nation took back control of the eastern regions from rebels. Moreover, Nigeria is on the list of the largest producers though hampered by oil theft and violence that has reduced oil production potential in the recent past. 10 major corporations that produce oil The first company is the Saudi Aramco which produces about 12.5 barrels in a day, NIOC produces 6.4, while ExxonMobil produces 5.3 barrel per day, and PetroChina takes the fourth place with about 4.4 barrels in a day. Increasingly, BP produces about 4.09 followed by Royal Dutch Shell producing 3.9 barrels per day, Pemex produces 3.6, Chevron produces 3.5, and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation produces 3.2 barrels in a day and ADNOC 2.9 barrels in a day as the tenth largest producing company. Corporation Fabrication in a day (barrels) Saudi Aramco 12.490 NIOC 6.390 ExxonMobil 5.290 PetroChina 4.390 BP 4.090 Royal Dutch Shell 3.890 Pemex 3.590 Chevron 3.490 Kuwait Petroleum Corporation 3.190 ADNOC 2.890 Table1company total output per day a).10 largest oil-producing countries Nation Production (%) Russia 543.78Mt 13 Saudi Arabia 519.50Mt 13 United States 386.90Mt 9 China 205.80Mt 5 Iran 185.50Mt 4 Canada 181.90Mt 4 United Arab Emirates 162.87Mt 4 Venezuela 161.50Mt 4 Kuwait 151.90Mt 4 Iraq 147.56Mt 4 Table 2: largest oil-producing nations (%) of 4,142Mt global output Oil price ‘Time graph series’ Retrieved from: World Bank Time-graph series of periodical oil outlay arrangements from July 1985 to July 2015 The early 1980s oil price collapse was a long standing occurrence and it lasted for five years where oil prices remained below $89.90 for every barrel. In essence, the oil charge crumple of the 80s was identical to contemporary crumple since the core cause was a novel foundation of supply. Here, non-OPEC production in the late 1970s as a novel source from the North Sea (Norway and UK, Russia, Mexico, and China. Oil outlays begged off from $105.9 early on in the 1980s to just above $30 for every barrel in the mid-1980s. The 2008-09 oil price crumple was caused by the overall collapse of the whole global financial structure (Baffes, Kose, Ohnsorge and Stocker 2015). Prior to this, in 2007 to 2008 the high oil prices were caused by large a steady production, supply shortfall as there was high demand from the Far East and China. On the other hand, the elevated oil outlays that preceded the 2014/2015 period charge disintegrate started based on delivery disruptions pointing to the impact that the ‘Arab Spring’ caused. The oil price reached a maximum of about $ 128.9 per barrel in the early months of 2011 based on the heightened Libyan civil war and the period of US currency devaluation in the aftermaths of 2008 financial depression (Zhang, Fan, Tsai and Wei 2008, pp. 973-991). Oil Prices On the Demand, Supply and Equilibrium Prices of Products Market for 4-cylinder vs. 6-cylinder vehicles People choose more energy efficient options when the price of oil rises, and these changes happen over time because not all people rush out to buy more fuel efficient vehicles when prices of gas suddenly rises (Hansen and Lunde 2005, p. 880). At this point, when prices increases people will tend to buy and use the V-4 vehicles as compared to the V-6 vehicles. Market for hybrid cars Oil price rises will make people to seek alternative sources of transport or luxury vehicles. At this time, hybrid cars will be highly demanded as a way to avoid soaring oil prices that cause extremely high gas prices at the consumer ends. Market for inner-city homes and suburban houses As oil prices increases, the effect will be that transportation around the cities would be much more expensive and cause people to look for other means to evade such added costs. For these reasons, people will need more houses or housing within short distances to avoid or avert transport costs. Reference List Akram, Q, F, 2009, ‘Commodity prices, interest rate, and the dollar,’” Energy Economics, vol. 31, pp.838-851. Baffes, J M, Kose, A, Ohnsorge, F, and Stocker, M, 2015, The great plunge in oil prices: Causes, consequences, and policy responses, Policy Research Note 15/01. Washington, D.C: The World Bank. Hansen, PR and Lunde, A, 2005, ‘A forecast comparison of volatility models: Does anything beat a GARCH (1, 1)?’ Journal of Applied Econometric, vol. 20, pp.873-889. Zhang, Y, Fan, Y, Tsai, H, and Wei, Y, 2008, ‘Spillover Effect of U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate on Oil Prices,’ Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 30, pp. 973-991. Read More