Food and Beverages at SWU football Games /WTVX Case Study - Assignment Example

Therefore, we should be confident that this food and beverage operation will break even. Every day probability has become a thing of the past in most weather forecast broadcasted to television viewers or radio listeners in the world today. Despite this matter, probability remains the most used forecasting method in the world, and still proves to be rather reliable due to its accuracy in data analysis and prediction. Joe was asked a question to predict the possibility of 15 days of rain in the forthcoming 30 days of rain.

Without putting much consideration into giving the correct answer, Joe gave a wrong answer to very many audience. In order to get the correct answer to the above question, the meaning and or implication of then question must be explored in two possible ways. The first meaning of the statement is that the rains will occur for only 15 days within the 30 days period. The second assumption is that the rain will occur for more than the 15 days mentioned. In our calculations, both of these definitions must be taken into account.

In order to calculate the probability of the rain to fall in more than the 15 days, one can begin by calculating that of the first 15 days and subtracting them from the total probability which is always 1. In another way, one can calculate the other days from 16th onwards and adding them up. However, it will be easier to use the first method. In this case, using the answer of the first probability that was looked at (0.0106) then subtract it from the total probability which is 1. Judging from the text, Joe’s assumption on the weather forecast was that the probability of rain falling in a day, which stood at 70% was the same as that of rainfall in a months’ time.

Based on this lame assumption, Joe made a wrong move by doing a direct calculation, landing him at the wrong answer of 35%