Great Population Spike and After by Walt Whitman Rostow - Book Report/Review Example

Explain Rostow's concept of the "great population spike" and consider its significance for population policy in contemporary developing economies. Introduction Walt Whitman Rostow October 7, 1916 - February 13, 2003) was an American economist and political theorist. He wrote the book The Great Population Spike and After in 1998.Rostow was a strong opponent of communism and openly supported capitalism .In this book he has given his views on what problems and prospects the world is likely to face in the year 2050. According to his analysis the total world population after a final increase during the year 2050, will have zero or no growth by the time it is year 2100.He goes on to state that the same happened in the mid eighteenth century as the population growth at that time was almost at zero as well. However after the second world war it increased by approximately two percent. Rostow has examined the historic, economical and political repercussions of this stagnant rate of population for the developing world and in reviewing these population figures Rostow has also provided a comparative overview of the demographic trends of population growth . For Roscow the upcoming decline in the populations of the developing /industrialised countries will hit a certain "beyond replacement level" and the developed world will then face a resultant major impact on employment, social services for a decreasing population and a decreasing labour force .These observations have significant implications for developing countries, as well as those entering what he terms the fourth industrial age(the age of computers and laser and nuclear power). On a more political note he believes that at this point the United States should fulfil the role of the "critical margin" to address these concerns .More importantly for W.W Rostow the Great Population Spike represents the rise and fall of population rates since the mid-eighteenth century and the relative social and economic waves caused by below-replacement fertility causing newer forms of political economies to emerge. Rostow has an incredibly optimistic vision towards the decline in population of the developed countries. So how does this link to the economies of the developing world and their population policy The developing countries(see diagram above) are expected to be contributing towards almost all of the total world population towards 2050.For Rostow the problem of the developing countries has its solution with the increased population of the developing countries. This trend is already underway as immigration from developing countries to developed countries is increasing with in every decade. Developing countries will be instrumental in relieving the developed countries from their own decreasing population problems. These problems come from the dilemmas for the developed countries in maintaining full employment and social services with a decreasing population. The challenges of a depleting workforce will be fulfilled by the increased immigration. Of more concern is also how these the developed countries of the world will face up to subsequent decreases in population-related investment. . Overall there has been indeed a decrease in the world population although it figures less with the developing countries and alarmingly enough the population growth seems to be confined to some regions of the world. Almost thirty years ago there was a fear among economists that there would be a huge population problem in the coming century. Now it just seems that it is shrinking in the form of the proverbial spike .Rostow takes an optimistic view of this decrease in population for the world as this will cause a resultant decrease in environmental degradation. Moreover it will mean that the developing countries will be released from the increased social strains of providing for a booming population. The main cause of this decline is a revolution in reproductive behaviour that began in the 1960s.There is an increased Contraceptive use in the developed countries and the increasing literacy rate has also decreased the birth-rate.However the increasing standard of living and better medication is also increasing the aging population in these countries. Contemporary developing countries are therefore faced with declining fertility declines which have been especially rapid in Asia and Latin America.Relatively little changes have however occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa,(something which has also been pointed out by Roscow) but significant population declines and on their way in countries like Botswana, Kenya, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. . In the new age developing countries are faced with the challenges of providing their populations with well-designed population are broad in scope. These policies have to be universal, socially desirable, and ethically sound. Such policies should also appeal to increase the life quality of people and the literacy rate. There has to be a sort of a mutually reinforced trend of investment in family planning and reproductive health. The developed countries may be faced with a decreasing and aging population but with the increasing population rate, the developed countries have an advantage over them as emerging economies. What their population policies should essentially be aiming at is to how to plan beneficially at both the macro and micro levels on a path to slow population growth, increased productivity, and improved population health. Today the earth has a population of around six billion people compared to just one billion in the mind eighteenth century. According to Rostow the human society will find many advantages and disadvantages in the wake of the over all decline in the world population but Roscow finds a " prediction of stabilization and hint of decline" with this increase. The theme of the population spike in his book suggests that the largest increase mark for population growth will not be the sole or the prominent factor in deciding the long term economic development and world growth. The next few decades will still have a relatively increased level of population and cause over population problems in the developing societies. However according to Rostow's theory this will be a passing phase. It is at this point he has been criticised for his over optimism and "rosy conclusions" because for him "wise statesmanship" will resolve this problem of overpopulation and the food crisis. The theory has however offered interesting insights into what the world population rates and the "demographic stagnation" will do for the long run technological and economic change .He is also criticised for arguing that that despite this demographic stagnation there will be an increase in economic growth in the new demographic era . He may be right about the economic growth in the light of the increasingly mechanised industry and increase in consumerism but of much alarm is the fact that the birth-rate of the advanced industrial economies has fallen below "replaceable levels" and the increased life expectancy is paving the way for an aging population with substantial declines in human numbers .However according to Rostow the reason for all this is that these countries have long surpassed their peaks of demographic transition. This demographic transition is however still on its way for developing countries and it is indeed happening with such unprecedented rapidity that it will still be a while before the stagnation of population growth actually sets in (almost two decades).The great population spike will then manifest itself in the form of the zero growth before the mid 1700s and by zero population growth after the late 2100s. Rostow believes that despite this stagnating population economic growth will continue because the world has actually seen about four industrial revolutions and the current age of computers, genetic engineering, laser and new industrial materials like ceramics and polymers will be precedented by more technological and economical revolutions in the coming decades. What lies ahead for population and economic policy in the developing countries In relation to problem of over population, Roscow also warns of disturbing economic fluctuations which will have intense political repercussions in the coming era. In Chapter 4 of his book Rostow has discussed the 'Kondratieff wave" which demonstrates rising and falling prices for raw materials and commodities in relation to manufactured goods. According to him there will be an increase in the price of raw materials in the early decades of the present century based on the experience of the Kondratieff curve .The grim side of these waves is the unemployment and economic depression which will hit the developed countries the most at the peaks of such problems. And at this point if the developing economies have not taken care of their over population problems and improved their living conditions the problem may go as far as "fanning the flames of military aggression". Here he points out the critical margin role of United States i.e. to keep these problems down. However his political perspectives are beyond the scope of this discussion. What is important is the serious task of population policy faced by the developing economies. Mere decrease in population will do little good to them if they have to face the challenges of economic growth in the future. The developing countries are better advised to improve their quality of workforce because if Rostow's predictions come true the developing countries will need the entire immigrant workforce that they export in order to fill the labour gap within the developed countries. However ultimately the population policy makers will have to realise that less is more and they have to work towards a more skilled, healthy and educated workforce. _____________________________________________________________________ Bibliography 1. Carl Mosk,The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the Twenty-First Century: , Journal of Economic Literature; Sep 2000; 38, 3; ABI/INFORM Global pg. 666 2. Timothy W. Guinnane . "Review of W.W. Rostow, The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century," EH.Net, H-Net Reviews, June, 1999. URL: http://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.cgipath=9016931885437 3. http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/books/ufa/ufa_ch10.pdf 4. Thirlwall, A. P.,Growth and development : with special reference to developing economies / A.P. Thirlwall. 8th ed. Basingstoke : Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. 90 B 21h 5. Gerald M. Meier and James E. Rauch ,Leading Issues in Economic Development,Eighth Edition (2004) 6. W.W. Rostow, the Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998 7. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtmlxml=/news/2003/02/24/db2402.xml (news item from the telegraph) _____________________________________________________________________ Read More