The Efficiency of the Plan to Save the Endangered Species - the Dwarf Dolphins - Report Example

Introduction to Bioeconomic Name: Reg No: Instructor: Course Code: Institution: Date of submission: Table of Contents Table of Contents ii Introduction 1 Model Description 2 Assumption 3 Sensitivity Analysis 4 Fig1: The Survival rate for provided controls 4 Fig 2: Impact of increase of GAMMA 5 Fig 3: Impact of Decrease in GAMMA 5 Fig 4: Impact of increase in budget allocation 6 Fig 5: Impact of decrease in Budget Allocation 6 Summary and Recommendation 7 Reference: 9 Appendixes 10 Introduction The analysis seeks to establish efficient plan to save the spotted dwarf dolphin by putting in controls that restrict fishing. The dwarf Dolphins are deliberately caught by fishers using seine nets in some fishing grounds and thus lead to ‘bycatch’ incidents which would result in its extinction. Therefore, the research evaluates the efficiency of the plan to save the endangered species. Two options include doing nothing or gear restriction and fishing ground closure (No fishing). The cost for the first option is only the extinction of dwarf dolphins. On the other hand, the ‘no fishing’ lead to the incurrence of cost (c = αx +βxγ). The cost incurred for the protection of Juvenile (1-2years) and adults (3-7+ years) are different but uses the same cost function. The combination of the two costs should not exceed the budgeted amount of $65 million. The model formulated to analyse the survival of the dwarf dolphin for the two available options employs Leslie Matric. The matrix helps in age-structured distribution where in our case we examine the protection of juvenile and adult dwarf dolphins (Carey,1993); Shaukat,1981). The primary variables in the analysis of this research include birth rate, initial population (Juveniles and Adults), fecundity, discount rate and budgeted cost. The constant constraints include gamma (γ), Beta (β), Alpha (α) and Omega. Also, the actual population parameter (s) is an important aspect that helps in the formulation of Leslie matrix, where values are interpolated using s = smin (1-x) + smax x. Where X is the proportion of fish that survives either Juvenile or Adults. The model formulation is as discussed below; Model Description The table below shows the description of data, symbols and value as used in the excel for analysis. The data displayed entails population and cost parameters for restrictions. Description Symbol Value Juvenile control parameter (Average of S1-S2) ὠj 0.5675 Adult control parameter (Average of S3-S7+) ὠa 0.7874 Gamma for Juveniles Γj 5.3 Gamma for Adults Γa 2.5 Cost of Juvenile control Αj 10 Cost of Juvenile control Βj 85 Cost of adult control Αa 20 Cost of adult control Βa 60 Budget constraint GM 65million Discount rate R 8% Birth Seasons Yrs 3 Stage matrix   Juveniles Adults Juveniles 0 6.988 Adults 0.047 0.065 Initial pop. 3969 4531  The stage matrix formulated from excel through averaging of actual survival parameters and exponential of the cost function. The model helps in enhancing accuracy when factoring various variables during formulation of distribution matrix (Ruth, Hannon & Lindholm, 2002). The matrix combines the population and cost functions. The equation for Multiplier of Juveniles and Adults; Mj= Exp (-γj Xj) ………………. (1) Ma= Exp (-γa Xa) ………………. (2) X represents number of fish (Juveniles or Adults) The cost associated with cost for Juveniles and Adult; Cj = αj (Xj) βj ……………………. (3) Ca = αa (Xa) βa ……………………. (4) The annual profit is calculated as shown below; D = PjϪj + PaϪa ……………………. (5) π= GM(1-D)-Cj-Ca …………………. (6) The calculation of discounted net profit value (NPV) is as shown below; NPV = πt  ………………………. (7) Assumption The following assumption is made in the analysis of the option available for protection of dwarf dolphins; The discount rate is 8% per annum. The dwarf dolphins take three years to produce (Growth rate) The averaging of actual survivals and estimated population to get the two grouping Juveniles and adult do not distort data distribution. The data provided only covered females, and thus males are not factored. The conditions are constant for the 20-year period since changes might affect the estimated population distribution. Sensitivity Analysis The sensitivity analysis shows the impact of the change in one of the variables that affect survival rate of dolphins. The analysis helps in devising strategies that yield optimum results for example increasing or reducing beta or alpha (Rockwood & Witt, 2015). Fig1: The Survival rate for provided controls The graph above (fig1) shows the change in dolphin survival for the life span of the project (20yrs). It is evident that the number of Juveniles survival is high in the first year and reduces as it grows to adults. The high growth (juveniles) at initial years shows that there is a large number of mature reproducing dolphins at first, but due to fishing, the number decreased. At the 8th year, the rate of survival for both adults and Juveniles becomes equal. The rate stagnates up to 15.8year where it goes below the rate of 1. The results for the cost function provided shows that gross margin loss is at 234, control cost is 473 and net profit value of the strategy stands at 1,342. The positive NPV indicates that plan to control fishing to preserve the dwarf dolphins is cost effective. Fig 2: Impact of increase of GAMMA The increase of gamma (γ) by 10points for the juveniles and adults shifts the NPV graph upwards but maintains its initial entry at year zero. Also, the NPV increases by 168 (1510-1342). The improvements arise from the decrease in gross margin cost by 169 (234-65). The control cost remains the same since it measures costs given X (Juveniles &adults) is zero. Fig 3: Impact of Decrease in GAMMA The decrease in gamma(γ) by 2points for the two groups leads to inversion of PV and GM Lost. The NPV records negative value (-480) and thus cost ineffective. On the other hand, the GM cost increases to 1984. The control cost does not change since they are constant and minimal cost parameters. Fig 4: Impact of increase in budget allocation The graph above shows the impact of doubling the budgeted amount (130) for fishing restriction. It is evident from the figure above that the increase in allocation of money to fishing restriction results to increases GM cost from year zero to one. The cost break-even at year two where PV exceeds GM Cost. The restriction does not yield much NPV from year 16 since GM and PV line flattens. Fig 5: Impact of decrease in Budget Allocation The reduction of budgeted restriction cost reduces the PV due to increased fishing of the endangered species. The reduction has little impact on gross margin cost, where it records a slight increase for the cumulative amount (126) and does not affect the control cost. The NPV decreases to 504 since the GM cost increased while control cost remained unchanged. Summary and Recommendation The analysis above gives an overview of cost efficient analysis of the plans to conserve the Dwarf dolphins from extinction due to aggressive and uncontrolled fishing. The results showed that control of fisheries through gear restriction and fishing ground closure proves to be effective since it recorded a positive NPV. However, the benefit of limitation would be increased more by increasing the amount budgeted for restriction (fig 5). The increase in spending improves the NPV by a factor of more than 2 and thus it is recommended that budget allocation should be increased to achieve optimal NPV (Greville, 2014). Also, increase in gamma (minimisation of cost) increases the NPV value. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure that amount spent in conservation should be accounted for and allocated effectively. The minimisation of cost does not mean spending less but putting each dollar into proper use. On the contrary, the reduction of budget allocation to the conservation of dwarf dolphins decrease NPV of the restriction plan. The insufficient funds lead to the wrong implementation of formulated of restricting fishing for the selected fields. Also, inefficiency (gamma) in spending the allocated amount for conservation results to negative NPV since plans formulated are poorly implemented. The increase of allocated budget without checking on efficiency would be fruitless since costs exceed the benefit (Fücks, Giddens & Harland, 2015). It is therefore imperative to increase allocated budgeted, improve restriction efficiency to enhance the usefulness of each dollar spent, put in strong controls and evaluate the plan regularly to correct deviations and amend inefficient strategies. The conservation of dwarf dolphins is paramount as human population and demand for smaller fish increases. The standardisation of fishing nets and restriction of the fishing grounds would greatly help in ensuring that required size of fish is caught and enable the juveniles to reach maturity and reproduce. The use of population dynamics models enables the researchers and conservers of the environment to formulate, implement and evaluate their effort in protecting endangered species (Akcakaya, Burgman & Kindvall, 2004). The measures of conservancy would improve the number of adult and Juvenile dolphins whose direct and indirect benefit exceeds the amount spent for the provided period. Therefore, the implementation of above recommendation will lead to immense benefit and effectiveness of the conservation plan. Reference: Akcakaya, H., Burgman, M., & Kindvall, O. (2004). Species Conservation and Management. Cary: Oxford University Press. Carey, J. (1993). Applied Demography for Biologists. Cary: Oxford University Press. Fücks, R., Giddens, A., & Harland, R. (2015). Green growth, smart growth. London: Anthem Press. Greville, T. (2014). Population Dynamics. Elsevier Science. Rockwood, L., & Witt, J. (2015). Introduction to population ecology. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell. Ruth, M., Hannon, B., & Lindholm, J. (2002). Dynamic Modeling for Marine Conservation. New York: Springer New York. Shaukat, K. (1981). A study of Leslie model under stochastic environments. Portland State University. Sundar, I. (2011). Introduction to bioeconomics. New Delhi: Global Research Publications. Appendixes Control Panel Control Juveniles Adults Results   Applied (X) 1.000 1.000 Costs (present value) Population parameters: GM lost 234 Fecundity 1400 Rabbit control parameters   Control 473 Juveniles 0.5675   Juveniles Adults NPV 1,342 Adult survival 0.7874 Gamma 5.3 2.5 Damage parameters: alpha 10 20 Juveniles 0.00012 beta 85 60 Adult 0.00056 M 0.00499 0.08208   Funding   C 10.00 20.00   GM 65.00 BaseSR 6.0 Stage Matrix   Discount rate 0.08   Juveniles Adults Years 3 Juveniles 0 6.988 Adults 0.047 0.065 Initial pop. 3969 4531 No. Dolphins   Damage     Present value   Time period Juveniles Adults Juveniles Adults Total CCost Profit GM Cost Disct CCost GM Cost NPV 0 3969 4531 0.5 2.5 3.0 30.00 4.8 35 1.00 30.00 35.16 4.84 1 31663.67679 477.7442877 3.8 0.3 4.1 30.00 - 7.5 47 0.97 29.22 46.22 - 7.26 2 3338.587666 1505.874946 0.4 0.8 1.2 30.00 25.5 15 0.95 28.46 13.77 24.18 3 10523.40268 252.8525311 1.3 0.1 1.4 30.00 23.6 16 0.92 27.72 15.14 21.82 4 1766.992015 506.55696 0.2 0.3 0.5 30.00 34.2 6 0.90 27.00 5.21 30.80 5 3539.937289 115.052872 0.4 0.1 0.5 30.00 34.3 6 0.88 26.30 5.00 30.06 6 804.016101 172.3380327 0.1 0.1 0.2 30.00 37.7 2 0.85 25.62 1.92 32.23 7 1204.338064 48.59252188 0.1 0.0 0.2 30.00 38.0 2 0.83 24.95 1.67 31.60 8 339.5757906 59.24268095 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.00 39.1 1 0.81 24.30 0.70 31.71 9 414.0015674 19.64761476 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.00 39.3 1 0.79 23.67 0.56 31.01 10 137.3020798 20.5554316 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 39.7 0 0.77 23.06 0.25 30.49 11 143.646114 7.724549457 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 39.7 0 0.75 22.46 0.19 29.76 12 53.9809396 7.19076736 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 39.9 0 0.73 21.88 0.09 29.08 13 50.25074676 2.979372989 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 39.9 0 0.71 21.31 0.06 28.35 14 20.82054808 2.533410415 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 40.0 0 0.69 20.75 0.03 27.64 15 17.70405838 1.133632279 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 40.0 0 0.67 20.22 0.02 26.93 16 7.922084769 0.897983223 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 40.0 0 0.66 19.69 0.01 26.24 17 6.275314618 0.427076353 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 40.0 0 0.64 19.18 0.01 25.56 18 2.984508413 0.319928003 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 40.0 0 0.62 18.68 0.00 24.90 19 2.23573094 0.159706201 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.00 40.0 0 0.61 18.20 0.00 24.26 Totals 472.67 126.01 504.22 Read More