Climate Change Impact on Agriculture - Research Paper Example

Climate Change and Agriculture Climate change is not a recent event. This phenomenon has occurred in previous generations, such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal maximum (Mathez 99). This extraordinary event took place 55 million years ago, and it changed the earth’s surface as a result of a significant influx of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, the climate change facing the world today is severe and poses a plethora of challenges. Scientists have recorded a global rise in temperatures that influenced a series of negative events on the earth’s weather patterns. Currently, there is a significant rise in sea level, melting glaciers and intensifying rainstorms. Today, climate change is more profound that what previous generations had to endure resulting in a series of challenges to the world, particularly in the agricultural field. Climate is a dynamic system resulting from physical and chemical interactions in the earth’s structures. The Earth is made up of the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere. The physical and chemical interactions of these structures results in the climate of a region. The atmosphere is part of the climate system that affects the earth directly. This is owing to the spherical nature of the earth. The sun heats up the earth, with more intensity on the equator and less intensity at the poles. This uneven heat distribution generates wind that carries the heat from the equator to the poles. The heat is also distributed from the upper-level surface of the atmosphere to the lower level of the atmosphere. The ocean correspondingly distribute heat but in a much slower pace than the atmosphere (Mathez 3). The carbon cycle is a chemical exchange resulting from the interaction between the earth systems. The ocean and the biosphere are reservoirs of carbon. 99.9% of the CO2 on earth exists in the lithosphere (Mathez 4). Carbon flows among the various reservoirs. Mathez states that, photosynthesis by plants and decay affects the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. This decaying and photosynthetic effect from the earth’s biosphere occurs after some time. Over a longer time frame, the ocean exerts a more dominant control on the atmospheric CO2. The ocean dominance is as a result of the amount of CO2 in the ocean that is 50 times more than the CO2 in the biosphere. The persistent balance that exists between the earth systems in the carbon cycle has maintained the conditions of the earth. It is as a result of this balance that the earth became conducive for evolution and survival of life. The interruption of this dynamic disrupts weather patterns and consequentially results in climate change. The current climate change is as a result of huge amounts of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The greenhouse gases include Carbon IV oxide, methane (CH4), Ozone (O3) and water vapour (H2O).Scientific research has proven that the huge amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere results from burning fossil fuel. The rapid increase in greenhouse gases began in the industrial age. Mathez states that, the first recordings of climate began in 1958.According to the records, the CO2 content in the atmosphere was 315 parts per million (ppm) in volume. In 2008, the record indicated 385ppm by volume. The records also showed a rising rate of 2ppm in greenhouse gases by volume. This rate of greenhouse gases is significantly high compared to the amount of CO2 800,000 years age (Mathez 7). The disruption of weather patterns as a result of climate change has negatively affected the agricultural sector. Farmers now face an uncertain climate that previous generations did not face. Changes in precipitation, summer heat stress and intense weed and pest pressures are some of the problems modern farmers experience (Wolfe 1). How the modern society chooses to solve these problems may also positively or negatively impact the future generations. Climate change also contributes to the occurrence of extreme weather patterns. One particular example is the heat wave that occurred in Europe in 2003.The rainfall recorded during this heat wave was 50% below normal (Mathez 9). Currently, agriculture and grazing occupy 40% of the earth’s land surface (Mendelsohn 1). Agriculture is also responsible for 6% of the world’s GDP. In developing countries, agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for 70% of the rural population. The major global concern is that the prevalent issue of climate change may result in widespread reduction in food supply. This massive reduction will in turn lead to hunger and starvation. Temperature and precipitation changes are the outcome of the prevalent climate change. The rising temperatures and adverse precipitation changes affected the production of horticultural crops. Issues such springtime flooding delays planting, contributes to root damage and soil loss (Wolfe 1). The U.S supplies approximately 30% of wheat, corn and rice on the global market (EPA.gov). According to researchers, there may be an initial expansion of grain and oilseed production owing to the rising temperatures. However, this initial expansion may be short lived, particularly owing to the varying precipitation patterns (EPA.gov). Researchers observed that the increased temperatures may contribute to increased yields of certain crops, such as wheat or corn. According to a research carried out by Deschenes and Greenstone, states such as California can incur a 50% loss in profits owing to climate change (Deschenes & Greenstone 27). Whereas other states such as Pennsylvania can occur considerable profits in crop production. Climate change facilitates the northern migration of weeds. The accumulation of CO2and the common use of glyphosphate herbicide enhances the occurrence of weeds. This is because the increased amount of CO2 reduces the efficiency of glyphosphate to kill weeds (NSCAC 6). This is particularly troublesome and poses a challenge to farmers. Currently, farmers spend more than $ 11 billion annually to fight weeds in the U.S (EPA.gov). The heat stress owing to climate change also increases the prevalence of insect invasion. According to recent studies, farmers in states such as New York would have to invest more in pest and weed management owing to the heat stress (Wolfe 2). This new challenge owing to climate change increases costs in weed and pest control and consequentially affects crop production costs. Dairy and livestock industries are negatively affected by climate change. The extreme and intense weather patterns have a negative impact on the productivity and reproductive capacity of livestock. The heat stress associated with hotter summer results in dangerous and unhealthy conditions for livestock. In 2005, warm temperatures reduced milk production from 5-15lbs per cow daily. Consequentially, this led to losses from 8-20% (CCC 3). Moreover, owing to the low yield of crops, the availability and costs of animal feed will fluctuate. Farmers also incur new investment costs in an attempt to establish cooling capacities for livestock (CCC 4). Climate change and overexploitation of water resources will result in a significant shrinkage in the water supply. The shift in water balance and increasing demand for water supply will result in water stresses. Currently, recent research links meat production to climate change. This is owing to the high volumes of water used in meat and dairy production. According to recent research, the consumption of animal products contributes to more than one-quarter of the water footprint of humanity (Hoekstra 3). In each step of the production stage, from the rearing of the animals to the final consumption of the product, there is a significant water footprint (Hoekstra 4). According to researchers, half the water in U.S. is used up in rearing the animals. Moreover, the production of animal feeds contributes to the high water consumption in the livestock industry. This recent discovery demands a new approach to meat production and changing patterns of food consumption. For example, in industrialized countries, it is estimated that moving toward a vegetarian diet can reduce the food-related water footprint of in the society by 36% (Hoekstra 3). Economic Impact of Climate Change Corn Soybeans (1a) (1b) (1c) (2a) (2b) (2c) Regression diagnostics Variance Explained by weather 12.6% 21.3% 26.3% 15.3% 31.0% 38.1% Model comparison tests DG against Other Weather (J-test) _ 15.97 21.08 _ 19.98 25.80 Other weather against DG (t-value) _ 1.85 1.66 _ 1.59 1.16 Climate change impact (Percent) Hadley II-IS92a scenario -0.98 -11.50 -14.03 -3.01 -16.49 -18.36 s. e (1.23) (1.71) (1.66) (1.38) (1.73)(1.64) s.e (Conley) [2.12] [5.57] [5.18] [1.96][4.93][4.39] Hadley III-B2 scenario _ -44.46 -65.64 _ -53.90 -75. 71 s.e s.e(Conley) _ (3.69) (3.97) _ [13.09] [11.76] _ (3.87) (3.92) _ [11.94] [10.60] Observations 6862 6862 6862 5141 5141 5141 Soil controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes County FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Works Cited Cornell Climate Change (CCC) Climate Change Facts. Cornell University College of Agriculture and Science. Print. Deschene, Oliver & Greenstone, Michael “the Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence From Agricultural Profits And Random Fluctuations In Weather”: Working Paper: National Bureau Of Economic Research: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10663(2004) EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) Agriculture and Food Supply. EPA. Fisher. A, Hanemann. M., Roberts. M.J., & Schlenker. W, Climate Change and Agriculture Reconsidered: University of California (2009) Hoekstra, Arjen Y. "The hidden water resource use behind meat and dairy." Animal Frontiers Volume 2 no.2 (2012): pp. 3-8. Mathez Edmond A. Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and our Energy Future. Columbia University Press. Mendelsohn, Robert O. & Ariel Dinar Climate change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation and Distributional Effects. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2009. Print. Mendelsohn, Robert O. & Ariel Dinar. Climate change and Agriculture: An Economic Analysis of Global Impacts, Adaptation and Distributional Effects. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2009. Print. National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition (NSAC). Agriculture and Climate Change: Impact and Opportunity at the Farm Level (2009) http://www.sustainableagriculture.net/.../nsac_climatechangepolicypaper...16.pdf PETA. 35 Mind-Shattering Facts Linking Factory Farming to Climate Change PETA.org –web. April 15, 2015. Seo S. Niggol. & Mendelsohn A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on South American Farms Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research 68(1):69-79 (JANUARY-MARCH 2008 Read More