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Ebola in west Africa - Assignment Example

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If you treat 32,000 patients each month, do you have any idea how long it will be before you eliminate the disease? (Show the calculation in the table and describe your findings).
Current West…
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Ebola in west Africa
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Statistics: Ebola in West Africa Ebola in West Africa Question What is the prevalence and incidence rate and death rate of Ebola inAfrica? If you treat 32,000 patients each month, do you have any idea how long it will be before you eliminate the disease? (Show the calculation in the table and describe your findings).
Death rate
A death rate is obtained by dividing the number of fatalities caused by a disease by the total population of that area.
Death rate=
Current West Africa’s population (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) is (11,474,383+ 4,092,310 + 5,743,725= 21310418) according to CIA (2013) while the policy paper indicates the number of deaths to be 4,000. Therefore, the mortality rate is given by
Death rate=
= 0.0001877 (1877 out of 10,000,000)
Prevalence rate
Prevalence rate is the likelihood of a person having a disease and is obtained by dividing the total number of people having the disease by the total population of that area.
Prevalence =
According to international Business Time (2014). The total number of cases of Ebola is 9936 at as 23 October, 2014.
Hence the prevalence rate was 9936 out of 21310418 at as 23 October, 2014.
Incidence rate
This is a measure of probability of being diagnosed with a certain disease within a given time. Therefore, the incidence rate is obtained by dividing number of new cases by the total population.
Prevalence =
According to International Business Time (2014) there are 1,000 new cases of Ebola reported each week at as 23 October, 2014
Prevalence =
= 0.00004693 (4693 out of 100,000,000 persons of week study) at as 23 October, 2014
How long it will take if 32,000 people are treated each month.
If the total number of people having Ebola is 9936, 1000 new case is reported each week, and the probability of getting the disease is 968 out of 1,000,000,000.
Therefore, all the total cases in a month will be
9936+ (1000*4) + 968 = 14,904.
Hence, if 32,000 people are treated each month, it will only take 1 month to eradicate the disease.
Table 1: Summary of the findings
Current population in Africa
Death rate
Prevalence
Incidence rate
21310418
1877 out of 10,000,000
9936 out of 21310418
(0.0004663)
4693 out of 100,000,000 persons of week study
(0.00004693)
In conclusion, the death rate is about is 0.0001877 and it is higher than the incidence rate. Therefore, with a low incidence rate of 0.00004693 it means that Ebola disease can be managed if necessary steps are taken very first.
Reference
Central Intillegence Agency. 2014. The World Fact Book. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sl.html
Ross, P. (2014). Ebola Death Toll 2014: How Many People Have Really Died From Virus? Retrieved from http://www.ibtimes.com/ebola-death-toll-2014-how-many-people- have-really-died-virus-1711477
World Population Statistics. (2013). Africa Population 2013. Retrieved from http://www.worldpopulationstatistics.com/africa-population-2013/ Read More
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