Trends in Crimes in Australia - Research Proposal Example

Analysis Report Over the past 30 years, crime has become a major public issue of concern drawing political, and leading to major government expenditure. Despite little understanding of factors that drive crime coupled with a limited knowledge base on the same, it has become critical to use available data to understand these factors, and make intelligent forecasts of future crime. Developing such a knowledge base is also vital for informing public policies and expenditures related to fighting crime. The knowledge required includes trends in crime over time and examining the interaction between the various bodies involved in the fight against crime including security agencies and the judiciary. This study is guided by the broad objective of examining major trends that have occurred in crime and criminal charges in NSW since 1990. The study will investigate whether there are any particular pattern of crime and criminality and whether various crimes are correlated, that is, the occurrence of one form of crime spurring the growth of another. The study will also investigate the effect of crime trends on the judicial system. The following are specific objectives drawn from the broad objective above: To examine trends in crimes over the past three decades in New South Wales, Australia To investigate trends in convictions by courts in NSW between 2008 and 2012 To examine the effect of crime trends on the judicial system Methodology This study examines data drawn from the NSW judicial system and police records collecting in a 24-year period between 1990 and 2013. Crime records were collected for 10 major crimes that were committed during this referenced duration and include murder, assault, sexual assault, various classes of robberies, dwelling and non-dwelling crimes, and vehicle theft. Court charges statistics was collected between 2009 and 2012. Offence rates were obtained from criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force and the NSW Bureau of Crime. Offence summaries were obtained from crime data collected for the period 1990 to 2013 in New South Wales. Initial analysis will focus primarily on summary statistics and measures of dispersion from this data to get a general picture of frequency of crimes over the period under study. Summary statistics will include mean, deviation, and maximum and minimum values. Line graphs will also be used to visualize crime trends. Confirmatory analysis will employ tests of difference in means (ANOVA) and correlation tests. The methodology follows from the fact that to answer the hypothesis, we need to obtain mean crime rates over periods of time and test whether the mean changes over time are statistically significant. The means are created by computing crime levels over 5-year periods. Correlation analysis is also used to check for relationships between the number of reported crimes and number of charges in law courts. In all the analyses outlined above, a statistical software known as Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, versions 20) will be used. The software has powerful tools to analyze both qualitative and quantitative data besides generating various types of graphs. Trends in crime in NSW Preliminary analysis of the crime data looks at measures of central tendency and dispersion across the 10 crimes whose data was obtained. The results are shown in the table below: Descriptive Statistics N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Murder 24 67 129 98.75 17.797 Vehicle theft 24 15948 55538 37241.92 13267.832 Sexual_assault 24 1397 4732 3460.96 973.302 Sexual_offences 24 2552 6535 4915.79 1217.363 Robbery_A 24 2444 7601 4528.42 1474.049 Robbery_B 24 325 1401 772.38 303.995 Robbery_C 24 912 5215 2519.58 1261.806 BE_dwelling 24 35181 84966 57632 15286.959 BE_nondwelling 24 14579 52220 32951.63 11638.508 Table1: Summary statistics for 10 forms of crime in NSW From Table1 above, it is evident that the most common crimes in NSW are break and enter non-dwelling (BE_nondwelling), vehicle theft and break and enter dwelling (BE_dwelling) with an average occurrence of 32,952, 37,241, and 57,632 cases respectively. The least common crimes from the list are Robbery_B and murder with 772 and 99 cases reported over the 24 year duration respectively. Additionally, there is a general drop in crimes over the 24 year period and this can be investigated using a line graph of the most common and least common crimes. These are shown below The line graphs indicate a general decline decline in crime trends from around the start of the last decade. Consequently, a hypothesis can be formulated to investigate this trend. The hypothesis is as follows: Null Hypothesis: Crime levels in NSW have remained constant over the period between 1990 and 2012 Alternative hypothesis: There has been a drop in reported crimes in NSW over the period between 1990 and 2012 To test this hypothesis, we conduct a difference of means statistical test through analysis of variance. We create data periods when data was collected from which we generate means for comparison. The periods are as shown: Category Period Category 1 1990-1994 Category 2 1995-1999 Category 3 2000-2004 Category 4 2005-2009 Category 5 2010-2013 A variable containing a summation of all crimes under study was generated and labeled Total_crimes. Output from the ANOVA test is shown below: Descriptives Total_crimes N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error 95% Confidence Interval for Mean Minimum Maximum Lower Bound Upper Bound 1 5 174164.00 18723.526 8373.416 150915.67 197412.33 142686 189613 2 5 240856.20 25445.531 11379.587 209261.40 272451.00 201305 266655 3 5 242620.00 30443.579 13614.783 204819.30 280420.70 203073 276230 4 5 183045.60 9433.279 4218.691 171332.64 194758.56 168593 192350 5 4 155454.25 7204.059 3602.030 143990.98 166917.52 145447 162325 Total 24 201051.92 40820.407 8332.431 183814.97 218288.86 142686 276230 ANOVA Total_crimes Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Between Groups 30113958953.083 4 7528489738.271 17.421 .000 Within Groups 8211070494.750 19 432161604.987 Total 38325029447.833 23 The ANOVA test gives a p-value of 0 indicating that our test is significant. Consequently, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that crimes levels have generally dropped over the 24 year period beginning 1990 to 2013. Post-hoc analyses were done using the Bonferroni tests to check for pairwise differences in means. From the analysis, crime levels in the period between 1990-1994 are not significantly different from those 2005 and 2013. It must be observed that while there has been a general decline in criminal activities, particular crimes have either remained constant or increased. In particular, sexual offences have increased over the 3 decades as shown below: An ANOVA test is again used to investigate the hypothesis that sexual offenses increased in NSW over the 3 decades. The SPSS output is shown below: Descriptives Sexualoff_rate N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error 95% Confidence Interval for Mean Minimum Maximum Lower Bound Upper Bound 1 5 49.020000 8.7941458 3.9328616 38.100626 59.939374 43.3000 64.0000 2 5 86.500000 12.1163113 5.4185791 71.455612 101.544388 73.2000 104.1000 3 5 83.040000 3.4209648 1.5299020 78.792311 87.287689 80.0000 88.4000 4 5 76.900000 2.9436372 1.3164346 73.244992 80.555008 74.6000 81.6000 5 4 80.250000 4.6278145 2.3139072 72.886114 87.613886 74.4000 85.3000 Total 24 74.929167 15.5055805 3.1650634 68.381734 81.476599 43.3000 104.1000 ANOVA Sexualoff_rate Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Between Groups 4487.440 4 1121.860 20.450 .000 Within Groups 1042.290 19 54.857 Total 5529.730 23 Results show that the increase in sexual offenses rate over the years is statistically significant (p-value~0). It is evident that even as law enforcers tighten their grip on a wide range of crimes and indeed managing to lower the rates, sexual offences have steadily risen and could form the next challenge in tackling. An increase in the rate at which sexual offenses are committed has led to a corresponding increase in sexual assault offences. From an average rate of 27 offences per 100,000 persons in the early 1990s, the latest figures point to a rate of 62 offences for the same number of persons. Trends in convictions by courts in NSW This section analyses trends in convictions by courts in NSW over a five year period beginning from 2008 to 2012. The data is obtained from three levels of courts- Higher Court, Local court and Children’s court. From a general outlook, the number of offences charged remains constant over the 5 years. The total number of convictions for each type of court can be summarized below: The graph shows a comparatively high number of offenses charged by local courts as compared to higher court and children’s courts for each of the 5 years (2008-2013). The number are visibly consistent over the 5 year period albeit with a slight difference in 2010 in which the number offences charged by local courts increased. Summaries for the number of charges across all three levels of courts is shown below: Year N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Minimum Maximum 2008 3 89065.00 123394.129 71241.633 12633 231419 2009 3 92193.67 128701.275 74305.716 12733 240683 2010 3 95443.00 132637.416 76578.248 12747 248432 2011 3 93177.00 126653.510 73123.438 13267 239207 2012 3 92728.00 127628.234 73686.195 11846 239858 Total 15 92521.33 108063.794 27901.952 11846 248432 The number of convictions ranges between 89,000 and 95,500 with the highest charges being realized in year 2010. Relating these results to the previous analysis of crime trends between 1990 and 2013, it is observed that crime levels during this period had dropped and were somewhat closer to stagnation. This is clear from the graphs shown above. From the previous analysis, there is a steep drop in reported crimes from around year 2000 but the slope becomes less steeper from 2005 onwards, eventually approaching constancy characterized by flat levels of crime (no increase or decrease). Number of crimes reported and the corresponding number of charges for this duration is shown below: Year Total crimes reported Total number of charges 2008 179232 267195 2009 168593 276581 2010 162325 286329 2011 158331 279531 2012 155714 278184 A correlation test is used to examine the effect of total crimes reported on the number of convictions. Results are shown below:   all_crimes charges all_crimes 1 charges -0.74754 1 The correlation test yields a correlation coefficient of -0.75. This implies that even though the number of crimes reported is declining, number of charges remains constantly high. This could imply that despite the drop in reported crimes, previous cases still form the bulk of current cases in courts which can only accommodate a fixed number of cases per year. Alternatively, this could imply that the current court cases are for crimes committed in other parts of Australia and not just in NSW. This accounts for the very high number of charges in comparison to the number of reported crimes. Discussion Between 1990 and 2013, trends in crimes can be summarized as follows: Murder rate reduced by 45% over the period Assault rate increased by 74% Rates of robbery without a weapon dropped by 35% Rates of robbery with a firearm dropped by 73% Rates of robbery with a weapon which is not a firearm dropped by 29% Rates of car theft dropped by 77% Rates of break and enter in non-dwelling areas dropped by 68% In contrast sexual offences increased over the durations as follows: Sexual offences rate increased by 95% Sexual assault rate increased by 125% The results indicate a steep decline in reported cases of crime over the 24 years under study. The trend suggests that factors other than time influence the number of crime cases. These factors may include policy and economic status. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the overall trend of most crimes in NSW has decreased over time. However, the figures do not necessarily imply a reduction in criminal activities. Other factors that could have led to a drop in non-sexual offenses include decline in population growth, change in how crimes are categorized or a reduction in the number of reported crimes. However, these cannot explain the general decline in crime as the population of NSW has been increasing steadily over the years. Besides, the line of thought linking reduction in crime to a decline in the number of reported crimes is false since there’s been a rapid increase in surveillance systems to report crimes. Thirdly, a change in how crimes are categorized would only transfer on crime from one category to another but still lead to a general increase in crime (Moffatt & Poynton, 2006). From the period beginning 1990, NSW courts have imposed severe penalties thus partly lowering crime rates. Additionally, New South Wales has implemented various strategies with the purpose of bringing the necessary change in institutions dealing with criminals and criminal justice. The rate of illegal activities in New South Wales has also decreased because the state has embraced the improvement oriented strategy. It appears as one of the evaluation strategies that focus on dynamic policies and programs in Juveniles and adult institutions bestowed with the responsibility of dealing with criminal justice (Barclay, 2007). Several programs have come into effect to address the increasing number of the released offenders that are re-arrested. Agencies have also collaborated with the aim of conducting intensive supervision between the law enforcers and the community correction centers across the New South Wales (Claudi, 2013). The observed increase in sexual offenses is a negative trend. However, the figures may necessarily imply an increase in these form of crime, rather, it could be that more and more people are reporting these crimes (Ringland & Baker, 2009; O’Brien, Jones & Korabelnikoff, 2008). There was a sharp rise in sexual offences from 1994 through to 1998 before rates steadily fell and only increased slightly. Specialized security agencies should be set up to fight sexual offenses. Besides, heavy penalties on offenders have been used to deter crimes and can also be used to fight sexual crimes. References Barclay, E. (2007). Crime in rural Australia. Annandale, N.S.W: Federation Press. Claudi Jensen, A. (2013). Towards a program theory of return to work intervention. Work, 44(2), 155-164. Moffatt, S., & Poynton, S. (2006). Long term trends in property and violent crime in NSW: 1990-2004. Crime and Justice Bulletin, No. 90. Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. O’Brien, K., Jones, C., & Korabelnikoff, V. (2008). What caused the decrease in sexual assault clear-up rates? Crime and Justice Bulletin, No. 125. Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Read More