Telephone Interviews as the Main Mode for Election Poll Surveys - Assignment Example

Research Evaluation Report Student’s name Institution Introduction The News-Poll research offers clarity and conciseness in its presentation and the conduct of its study. The study offers clarity in the description of participants, the selection methods and the criteria employed. Participant selection is a very critical component for any study and hence this provides a good starting point for the analysis of the study. Presenting an upper margin of error at +/-3 percentage points is also a critical component of the quality of the study. It provides the reader with perspective in understanding that actual results of the actual poll may be different from that of the study. Collection of the data that has been compiled was done through survey data. Survey research is one of the most preferred methods in social sciences research and thus has been one of the most used tools for election polling research. The study made use of telephone interviews which were done by trained interviewers that were based in the rural and urban areas of all Australian states. A list of random phone numbers and respondents was compiled after which the final sample size of 1116 employees was settled on. Using scientific methodologies it was deemed that this was a representative sample of eligible voters in Australia. Given the relative randomness and non selective bias of telephone interviews telephone interviews are the main mode for election poll surveys. Telephone interviews are also very adaptable to different circumstances and are usually cost effective given that their administration is relatively fast. Clarifications and guidance to the interviewee are also easier to administer over the telephone especially in instances in which some of the questions may be misunderstood. The engagement of telephone interviewers who were experienced enhances the veracity and reliability of the research. Form of Data Collected There was a range of information which was collected by the survey research study. Voters’ opinions on the different aspirants for the different posts in the federal elections were collected. Voter preferences with regard to the candidates and their political party membership were also collected. Undecided voters being an important group of voters were also sampled in this study given that the election was still some way off. The information collected reflects the number of voters who may have the swing effect on the upcoming polls. The researchers will often refer to this group as the uncommitted voters in some instances. These are voters that have not decided on their preferred candidate for the upcoming federal elections. This is an important part of the research since the research asserts that there is a need for the aspirants to concentrate on this demographic. The research study gathered information on the most popular of the candidates (Abbott and Rudd) on the levels of dissatisfaction or satisfaction of their performance in their current roles. Additional information was gathered on the voters’ preferred party. Green, Labor and Coalition parties were analyzed on the levels of voter preference for them. The final research was nevertheless narrowed down to Labor and the Coalition Parties which are the most popular parties. How the aspirants comported themselves during the election and in their elective positions was also a factor as the voters were asked how much this influenced their voting decisions. The report includes a compilation of other studies of a similar nature which have been previously conducted by News-poll. By making use of similar design and research questions the veracity of the study is enhanced since conclusions and comparisons can be done in a logical manner. It also means that it becomes easier to make predictions and generalizations regarding possible outcomes for the different parties and aspirants. Party preferences and the federal vote were compared to the results of the 2010 poll. Information that had been excluded in the News-poll was also included. For instance the decline of Labor Party’s support to 33 percentage points is included. Under Rudd’s government this is lowest level of support for the party. The cost of Coalition’s and the repudiation of government claims by the Treasury and Finance are asserted to be the cause of the slump. An explanation of the likely effects of the swing vote is also put forth in the report. There is a possibility of Labor Party losing its hold on 14 seats; one each in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, four in Queensland, three in Victoria, and four in Queensland. There is a possibility of Assistant Treasurer Bradbury David and former treasurer of the Labor Party losing their seats. When was the Data Collected The survey data was collected over a significant period of time with the latest on being conducted last August. In the run up to the federal elections, the research company conducted the survey particularly concentrating on the Australian Premiership. August and July 2013 are of great significance given that they are closest to the election when most of the voters are likely to have made decisions on party and aspirant preference. Reasons for the Collection of the Specific Data Through the collection of this data, it is possible to compare the different aspirants and the parties vying for the Australian Premiership. Rates of satisfaction and dissatisfaction are depicted on who ranks highest and who ranks lowest. Collection of data on voter preferences and perspectives on party and aspirants was important since it helps in the making of generalizations and predictions on the likely winners and losers. This information is also critical in that it enables the study determine what issues voters believed were critical in making their voting decisions. Party and individual positions on these issues is important in helping to determine the likelihoods of a win or loss for a party or a candidate. It is critical for the research to show why one candidate scores high on popularity while others score lowly. Questions on party inclinations were important in the determination of the candidates that would most likely benefit from swing votes. Evaluation of the Methodological Approach The research made us of the quantitative approach which offers greater effectiveness as it enables the prediction and generalization of data from a scientific framework. Given that generalizations are an important part of elections research a quantitative methodological framework is preferable. Since quantitative studies are high objective they are preferred in elections research which calls for greater objectivity as compared to other social sciences research. Quantitative studies tend to have a lower level of bias among respondents given that they eliminate these by averages. Random errors and biases reduce the veracity and make the sample results less representative of the population from which the results are obtained. Through a quantitative framework it is possible to control external factors that may result in biases in the responses submitted to the study. Research Design Suitability to the Study Surveys were deemed to be the most ideal methodology for the collection of the data used in this elections research. Given that elections research is a social science, a quantitative research methodology which employs telephone interviews is very effective when professional interviewers are contracted as was done in this research. Accuracy and reliability are critical in elections research and hence the use of telephone survey reduces the risk of bias and enhances the truthfulness of the sample population. Errors of non-response from the participants are also greatly reduced through telephone surveys. Sample selection procedures and their description have been clearly presented by the authors of the report. An adequate representative sample of the Australian populace and electorate has been achieved through the data being collected from both the urban and rural areas. It may be argued that if another sample were to be drawn from the Australian population it would be very similar to the current sample. Non response bias has been reduced by the engagement of professionally trained telephone interviewers. The survey has selected suitable questions which help in the participants offering responses that can be generalized in the making of election outcome predictions. Through the weighting of the research data the study has been able to have a sample that reflects the distribution of the population. Through weighting reliability of conclusions is enhanced due to the representative nature of weighted data in scientific studies. The study has not offered information on the aspects or methods used in the weighting processes though this is normally done by taking into account aspects such as region, age, marital status, gender, religion or ethnicity of the respondents. The random selection of the respondents means there is a probability that the sample may not necessarily be representative of the different variables. There is an indication of a margin of sampling error which is declared in the report. A margin of error in sampling is impossible to eliminate given that it is not possible to obtain responses from all members of a study population which reduces the accuracy and reliability of the research. The newspaper and the News-poll articles are silent on the anonymity and confidentiality of the respondents’ information which is also a negative aspect on reliability and accuracy. Given that these are fundamental aspects of research it is hard to tell if ethical research procedures regarding participants were adhered to or not. The research articles do not declare whether participation in the studies was voluntary or not or whether they were offered information regarding their rights to withdraw or participate in the given study at will. An analysis of the title of the article and the questions which News-poll employed shows that the questions were well constructed for this type of study. The clarity of the questions makes them very simple to comprehend and hence answers given are unlikely to be ambiguous. It is thus possible to repeat the study and come up with similar results to the ones obtained in the current study. Conclusion A summary of the major points and the statement of particular issues that the News-poll study analyzes are given in the article’s introduction. Reader interest is aroused though the clarity of articulation which enhances anticipation for the reader to evaluate and read the entire article. The issues which were being investigated are clearly understood by the author of the study. While the article has offered a lot of information on procedure and methods of the study, there is insufficient information regarding specific interview questions, tests or instrumentation made specifically for the study. This makes it difficult to ascertain the validity and reliability of the study based on these items. The setting of the study has been explained as telephone interviews and thus we are able to determine how the researches interacted with the respondents in the study. We can therefore determine the consistency of the research questions and the characteristics of the respondents. 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