National Risks Identification in Russia Federation - Term Paper Example

National Risk Register for Russia Student’s Name Lecturer’s Name Course Title Date Table of Contents Table 3: Allocation of Risk Funds in Russia……………………………..…………...….…15 4 Table 2: National Loss ………………………………………………………………………20 4 Table 1: Russia National Matrix of Risk Assessment ……………………………….……….24 4 1.0.Introduction 5 2.0. National Risks Identification in Russia Federation 6 2.1. Risk Analysis 9 2.1.1. Probability Classification 9 2.1.2. Impact Classification 10 Table 1: Russia National Matrix of Risk Assessment 13 Table 2: National Loss 19 3.0 Fault Tree Analysis 23 4.0. Russia National Money Distribution Plan 24 Table 3: Allocation of Risk Funds in Russia 25 5.0. Conclusion 28 List of Figure Fig 1: Fault Tree Analysis Diagram ……………………………………………………………..22 List of Tables Table 3: Allocation of Risk Funds in Russia……………………………..…………...….…15 Table 2: National Loss ………………………………………………………………………20 Table 1: Russia National Matrix of Risk Assessment ……………………………….……….24 National Risk Register for Russia 1.0. Introduction The Russian Federation is located in the part of northern Asia and most part of Eastern Europe, or around one-eighth of the surface of earth. The country contains 83 federal areas that include nine territories, 21 republics, 46 region, and four autonomous districts. The two Russian largest cities include Saint Petersburg and Moscow, which are from different federal areas. Based on their geographical positions, all the major Russian Federation administrative units are normally categorized into seven federal regions at the state leve,l for purposes of administration. The country has a population of about 143.5 million individuals (Petrova, 2011, p.54). Although the country is rich in energy and mineral resources, it has a huge part of the population besieged by poverty. The gap between poor and rich is extremely big. Specific groups of susceptible individuals such as children, disabled, elderly, and HIV infected individual suffer from poor access to public services, discrimination, and social exclusion (Ifrc, 2011, p.1). By virtual of the wonderful region and natural conditions diversity, the numerous objects and territory of the economy of Russia is subject to destructive effect of different communicable diseases, forest fires, as well as geophysical, hydrometeorological and geological processes. Out of these effects, the biggest region of distribution lies on cryopedological dangers associated to the permafrost rock development zone occupying around 65% of the territory of the country. Natural fires, including forest fires take place on about 45% of the country’s territory, while about 41.6% of its territory is impacted by earthquakes with minimum of 6 magnitudes (Unisdr.org, 2004). Other common natural hazards include floods, landslides, and heat wave among others. Beside natural hazards, Russia is also impacted by other risks that include nuclear accidents, technological risks, terrorism, human trafficking, and security risks among others. These risks attract the Russian Federation government based on their effect to social, economic, and political life of Russian people. This paper focuses on mapping the ten top risks in the country. 2.0. National Risks Identification in Russia Federation Natural Calamities Risks: Russia is known for all kinds of natural disasters that include earthquakes, floods, landslides, earthflows, snowstorms, heavy frosts, snow avalanche, hurricanes, Tsunami, and wildfires. The country has experienced a total of 139 natural calamities event from 1980 to 2010. These calamities resulted to 61,120 deaths, and affected a total of 4270425 individuals in the country. They also caused economic damage of 8267.2 million dollar. Severe floods were experienced in 1994, 2002, 2001, 1996 and 1998, affecting a total of 1792642 individuals in the country. Drought was experienced in 2003 affecting one million individuals; there was wildfire in 1998, affecting over 100000 people and extreme temperature in 1999, affecting 725000 people in the country (Roffey, 2014, p. 16). The country also experienced wildfire in 2012 and 2015, volcano eruption, earthquake and floods in 2013, and floods in 2012. According to Ifrc (2011, p.1), the number of natural disasters that include wind storms, floods, fires, and earthquake has risen by 12.6% in the country, in the last two years. All these incidences have highly impacted the economy of the country due to severe damages such as displacements, damage of infrastructures, and high number of deaths and injured among other damages. HIV and Tuberculosis Risk: Russia is currently experiencing a great challenge in the management of HIV virus and Tuberculosis (TB) spread in the country. The country is in the second position in Europe with respect to the HIV spread. The spread rate is specifically high among drug users who use injection. This group mainly comprise of penitentiary institutions inmates and young people. These individuals are also subjected to discrimination and stigma and thus, receiving very little attention to improve their situation. Beside this, Russia is in the highest position in Europe with respect to TB spread. It records 16.5 deaths and 82.6 new cases in every 100000 individuals per year (Ifrc, 2011, p.1). Nuclear Accident Risks: Russia has been depending on nuclear energy to provide 17% of the electric energy in the country. Though effective in energy provision, this has subjected Russia to various disasters that include Mayak 1957 disaster when Russia was still part of Soviet Union. This resulted to evacuation of around 10000 individuals from 23 settlements. This was followed by Chernobyl disaster in 1986, which contaminated from 125000 to 150000 km2 area of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. This resulted to evacuation of around 350000 individuals, and caused direct death of 56 individuals, and future cancer related death of 4000 individuals (Greenplace.org, 2014). There are always minor issues experienced in these plants that demonstrate the danger of running nuclear plants. According to Slivyak (201, p.3), there were a total of 39 minor incidences in the nuclear power plants in Russian in 2013, which were initiated by equipment defects, mismanagement and design errors. Human Trafficking: In 2004, Russia ranked second in human trafficking, after south-east Asia. About 175000 women were trafficked from different places per year, where Russia accounted to 20-30% of the total number of human trafficking flow. About 30000 to 60000 of children and women are taken from Russia a year mostly for prostitution. More than 500000 women have been sold in the last two decades from Russia to other nations. Beside prostitution, the trafficked individuals in the country are also used in pornography production, sex tourism, illegal adoption for children, marriage for exploitation, as well as tissues and organs transplantation (Ivakhnyuk & Iontsev, 2013, p.1). Technological Risks: Technological catastrophes and disasters accounts for approximately 70% of all hazards that takes place in Russian Federation. These disasters account for over 98% of all the mortalities and over 77% of all injuries in the country. In 2009, Russia experienced a total of 270 technological disasters. The country experienced a total of 13207 injured individual and 13933 deaths in 2009 due to technological based fires. Traffic accident is another major cause of technological deaths. Traffic accidents resulted to 270000 injured individual and 30000 deaths in 2008. The main causes of technological risks include their poor design, poor construction, and lack of handling knowledge (Petrova, 2011, p.55). Discrimination Risk: Russians exact a high level of discrimination and social exclusion among the individuals living with HIV, the elderly, disabled, unemployed, low-income earners, orphans and abandoned individuals, as well as alcohol and drug addicts. These individual have been subjected to inability to access public services (Ifrc, 2011). Most of the poor in the society have been subjected to human trafficking. Russian women face an extensive level of employment discrimination which is tolerated, condoned, and practiced by the government. According to statistics, two in every three unemployed individuals in Russia are women. More than 85% of unemployed individuals in most parts of Russia are women. In 1993, 90% of government fired employees were women (HRW, 1995). This has resulted to a huge gender income inequality in the country. Regional Stability Risk: Russia has been having strained relation with its neighbours, creating regional stability risk. In the 2008, there was war between Russia and Georgia this weakened the country’s relation with Georgia creating regional insecurity (Harpviken, 2010, p. 105). Russia and Ukraine relation is also at strain following the recent 2014 war. This followed dispute regarding Crimea border. Russia has also been involved in Syria war. Though this has tried to purify the country’s picture toward western countries, it has highly strained the country relation with Islamic countries. All these wars have highly impacted Russian economy particularly the war between Russia and Ukraine. It has also created a high regional insecurity in Russia (Metre, Gienger & Kuehnast, 2015). Organized crimes Risk: Russia has since the dissolving of Soviet Union been a field for organized crimes. The variety and nature of crimes including money laundering, stolen automobiles, arms trafficking, and drugs traffic. The spill over is specifically troubling the surrounding nations particularly the European nations and Israel, due to its geographical vicinity to Russia. The Russian organized criminals seem to have spread across the globe, through “Russian Mafia”. This is destroying the country’s reputation, making it hard for its businesses to be trusted at international level. Russia has three very powerful networks of criminals that include the blues, the central group, and Uralmash group. The groups are highly connected with ties in political and legal system of the country. Uralmash group manages about 140 commercial enterprises which include lending and banking institutions. The have extensive connection to various international countries that include the United States, China, Poland, Germany, and Cyprus among others. The magnitude of their criminal activities has highly impacted the economy of the region. In 1996 there were 203 cases of such crimes on Russian economy, in 1997 there were 240, and in 1998 first half, there were about 284. The 1998 case resulted to the loss of two million dollars in stolen money, stolen raw materials, and lost sales (Finckenauer & Voronin, 2001). Terrorism Risk: Terrorism has turn to be a major problem in the world and Russia is not an exceptional. Russia has for more than a decade struggled with tenacious domestic terrorism and insurgency. Russia has experienced a number of militant and terrorist attacks, and a whole century was demonstrated by a high-profiled series of terrorist incidences, engaging civil casualties in large numbers. The country has experienced a total of 172 terrorist incidences from 1994 to 2014, the death of 2940 individuals, and injuries on a total of 7963 individuals (Johnston, 2015). Terrorism threats are still on even today. Pollution Risk: Russia is highly affected by pollution following intensive level of industrialization. About 70% of the total air pollution in Russia originates from industries. The country based on 1993 statistics discharged a total of 43.8 million pollutants tons among which 19 million tons originated from vehicles and 24.8 tons originated from industries. The statistics also shows that only 15% of the urban regions in the country breathe clean air. Air pollution has been said to cause 90% of health risk to the country’s population. Pollution is also associated to economic destruction of 2.6-6.5% of the country’s GDP. Airborne pollutants mortality is found to be three times that of TB (Golub & Strukova, 2008, p. 86). Beside air, the country surface and underground water is highly polluted, and soil is also experiencing a high level of degradation. 2.1. Risk Analysis This section will categories risk based on the probability of happening and also based on the impact the risk can bring. The tables below shows the aspects to be used to determine the risk probability of happening, as well as the aspects to be used to identify risks level of impact. The analysis will be based on a five by five matrix as guided below 2.1.1. Probability Classification Ranking Classification Probability 1 Extremely Unlikely Occurs only in special circumstances, occur after a long period of time, probably after 100 years 2 Very Unlikely Not anticipated to occur, may happen once in every 50-100 years, a few recorded evidence 3 Unlikely Occurs occasionally, little gathered evidence, can occur after 10 years but in less than 50 years 4 Likely May occur once in 5-10 years, enough recorded events 5 Very likely May occur more than once in a period of 0-5 years; a number of recorded incidences, very high chances of being experienced 2.1.2. Impact Classification Ranking Classification Impact Description 1 Very low impact Health, Welfare & Life Environment Infrastructure Social No deaths, minor injuries treatable via first aid, less than 100 affected people. Very low level of contamination Below 50M BL Localized dispute, full community services recoverable within 48 hours 2 Low impact Health Welfare & Life Environment Infrastructure Social Up to 2500 evacuated individuals, 100-250 deaths, 1000-2500 injuries, 50000-100000 affected, takes 5-10 days, with localized personal support Simple and regional contamination, short time period 50-100M BL The community continue function but with considerable level of inconveniences 3 Moderate Impact Health, Welfare & Life Environment Infrastructure Social 25000- 50000 evacuated individuals, 250-500 deaths, 2500-5000 injuries, and goes beyond 10 days, total of 50000-100000 affected people. High contamination extended in in localized effects or duration, 100-250 M BRL Availability of some services, community functioning partially. 4 High impact Health, Welfare & Life Environment Infrastructure Social Up to 50000-100000 evacuated individuals, 500-1000 deaths, 5000-10000 injuries, widespread effects or extended duration, 100000-250000 impacted individuals High level of contamination between 250M to 500M BRL Poor community functioning, minimal available services 5 Very High Impact Health, Welfare & Life Environment Infrastructure social Over 100000 individuals evacuate, over 1000 number of deaths, over 250000 number of impacted individuals, and about 10000 injuries Widespread impact for a longer period; very high contamination of more than 500M BRL Loss of important services for a long period of time, serious infrastructure damage, inability for the community to function, great disruption of infrastructure system. Table 1: Russia National Matrix of Risk Assessment RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE OR ACTION PLAN RISK ID# Risk event Effect P R O B A B I L I T Y IMPACT OV E R A L L S COR E Risk Matrix Actions 1 Natural Calamities Displacement of people, loss of life, injuries, destruction of infrastructures and people housing, distress, spread of communicable diseases, destruction of livelihood and social relations. VL VH 45 Resettle people living in natural disaster prone area, build receivers to correct water during floods, monitor rainfall and earthquakes to avoid huge losses, evaluation of building and other structures located in disaster prone region determining their ability to withstand the pressure, developing a building and development policy for regions prone to natural disaster based on the possible form of disaster 2 HIV and Tuberculosis risks Discrimination and isolation and hence possible trauma, weakened body and immunity system, high hospital bills, death and loss of young human resources VH H 35 Creating HIV awareness among the youths and prisoners, fighting with drug use among young people, embarking on a campaign against HIV and TB in the country which will involve creating awareness, provision of free medical services for those suffering from TB and HIV, educating the affected individuals on healthy living, and informing relatives on how to care for the affected individuals, preaching social acceptance of this population 3 Nuclear Accidents Creation of panic, release of radioactive materials affecting wide region, prolonged environmental and health impact, death and development of terminal illnesses, disruption of social and economic activities in the affected regions M VH 28 Enhance effective management of nuclear energy plant, employ qualified engineers to ensure on the product safety, develop safety policies to be followed by all nuclear energy plant, ensure total protection and safety measures are employed among all employees working in the plan, regular risk assessment measures should be employed, quality and well designed and developed equipment should be used in these plants 4 Human Trafficking Destruction of individual life and future, psychological distress due to family separation, destruction of livelihood, degradation of the population, tilting of the country’s image, and endangering life of individuals by subjecting them to sexual transmitted diseases. M M 15 Developing of strict laws to safeguard human rights in the country; fighting poverty and empowering women in the society, employing policies to protect rights of women and children in the country; creating rehabilitation center for the rescued population, involving NGOs in the protection of women and children in the country, imposing heavy fines for human trafficking crimes. 5 Technological Risks Destruction of properties, destruction of businesses, loss of life, increase in accident related disabilities, and reduction in the productive population H VH 36 Ensure well developed training institution for effective knowledge on technological related equipment, effective workers training and knowledge evaluation during recruitment, development of quality of standard policy or body to ascertain design and developed equipment efficiency and structures standard, employment of health and safety work environment policy, regular equipment and machinery assessment and maintenance. 6 Discrimination Risks Violation of human rights, destruction of dreams and ambitions, humiliation, denial of public services, expansion of poverty, and destruction of livelihood H M 20 Employment of social inclusion policies, empowering women, children and youth through education, engagement of NGO to empower the discriminated, employing gender quota in employment in public institution to accommodate women, empowering woman and youth to join business by subsidizing on their loan interest rate. 7 Regional Stability Risk Creation of fear of war and its consequences, economic down fall, interference with people livelihood and limitation of business operations, particularly at the boarder of the country H M 20 Entering into peace treaty with the neighbours, establishment of effective foreign policy, upholding strong sovereignty of the country, creating more allies than enemies 8 Organized gangs Destruction of the country’s business image internationally, destruction of ethics in judicial and business sectors, and high cost of compensation to the tax payers L VH 18 Enhancing effective business security through the employment of insurance law where possible, and imposition of strong ethical policies in all institutions, effective implementation of national and international criminal laws, employment of big penalties for institutions proved to be involved in mafia related activities. 9 Terrorism Fear and distress among the population, loss of life and destruction of properties, reduction in the productive population, high economic losses M M 15 Tightening of the country’s internal security policies, fighting radicalization in the country, employment of effective technology to monitor the boarders and also to check country’s international entry points, development of strong internal intelligence and database system. 10 Pollution Increase in health related issues, increased rate of mortality and morbidity, chance in climatic conditions L M 10 Development of environmental conservation policy in the country such as green production to limit on industrial emission. Based on this table, the most serious risks include natural disasters and pollution with a score of 45, they are followed by technology risk with 36, followed by terrorism and HIV and TB risks at 35. These risks take a higher scale and thus, they will require more money from the provided budget to ensure that they are effectively handled. Table 2: National Loss RISK NATIONAL LOSSES RISK ID# Risk event Nation Industry Population Individual 1 Natural Calamities High resettlement and evacuation cost, high cost of rebuilding infrastructures, and high rehabilitation cost. Property destruction, loss of eligible competent workers, high costs of compensation Huge losses of population, low flexibility to accept new normal and to rebuild the life Loss of loved ones and properties, , loss of social and economic life, overdependence on NGOs and the government 2 HIV and Tuberculosis High cost of testing and prolonged treatment Loss of industrial productivity, pressure on general and hospitals healthcare Constant death of the member of population, loss of productivity from the impacted individuals, social relation strain High financial and other resources strain from the family, discrimination, death 3 Nuclear Accidents Huge costs of evacuation Destruction of property; huge compensation costs Loss of industrious population; low level of flexibility and ability to reconstruct lives loved ones; fear of future terminal diseases, overdependence on government and NGOs 4 Human Trafficking Loss of country’s dignity and bride, high rehabilitation cost, high searching cost Decrease in public and private sector profitability Fear and sense of insecurity, distrust of the governmental security system Destruction of individual dreams and sense of life, difficulties in overcoming trauma, and decrease in individual self-esteem, 5 Technological Risks Increase in the cost of reconstruction High cost of reconstruction, and compensation Loss of economic activities, loss of productive population Loss of life, loss of loved one, destruction of the ability to contribute economically and to provide for the family for the injured individual 6 Discrimination Risks High social inclusion policy implementation cost Lack of diversity in organizations and advantages associated with it Exclusion of the poor, disabled, sick and women. Increase in the level of poverty and crimes Poverty, inability to access essential public services, feeling mistreated, feeling unworthy and distress. 7 Regional Stability Risk High military cost Losses due to inability to conduct regional and international business effectively High sense of fear and insecurity. High level of uncertainty Increase in uncertainty and sense of insecurity 8 Organized crimes High losses in taxes and the country revenue. Fear of business operation and investment related losses Destruction of youthful life into crime, endangering life as criminals Fears of injuries or being a victim of crime 9 Terrorism High cost of internal Security enhancement Loss of properties and inability to conduct international business effectively Fear of attack, loss of life, loss of productive population Loss of bread winners and loved ones, fear of unknown and uncertainty 10 Pollution High cost of treatment of health related issues High cost of adopting new and more environmental friendly production system High cases of health issues, change of climatic system and hence food insecurity, loss of productive population Increase in chances of developing diseases and death, fear of natural disasters 3.0 Fault Tree Analysis Fig 1: Fault Tree Analysis Diagram The fault tree analysis permits for the estimation of the hazardous incident frequency from logical model of the system failure mechanism. In this case the top event probability which is national loss is computed from data associated to more basic or simpler events (Danaher, 2012). In this case, the national loss is classified into three groups that include civil, natural, and technical risks. Natural hazards include national calamities that comprises of floods, landslides, heat-wave, earthquake and the rest, and HIV and TB. Technical Hazards include nuclear accidents, technological risks, and pollution. Civil hazard include organized crimess, human trafficking, discrimination, regional stability risk, and terrorism. In combination, technical risks present the highest risk in the country, followed by civil risks and then natural risks and thus, the government funding should focus more on technical risks. This can be done by establishing the basic factors that contribute to their occurrence (Danaher, 2012). This was accomplished through survey, risk monitoring check-list, investigation of nuclear plants accidents, and fires in different industries, investigation of transport related accidents, and investigation on the industrial emitted gases and their contribution to total pollution level. The three undesired events were intensively investigated to establish the root cause of the system failure, where quantitative and qualitative structure evaluation was carried out to establish their impact and frequency. 4.0. Russia National Money Distribution Plan The current GDP of Russia is 1324.73 billion dollars. If 1% of this money is set aside for disaster management, the country will have allocated a total of 13.25 billion dollars for disaster management. Table 3: Allocation of Risk Funds in Russia Rating Risk Risk rating Amount allocated Action Justification 1 Natural Calamities 45 $2.15 billion Life and property insurance, and risk monitoring and management plan Evacuation of the affected people, compensation for the losses, construction of more water receivers in the country, resettlement of people living in disaster prone areas, and constant monitoring of all frequent natural disaster occurrences 2 HIV & TB 35 $1.67 billion Employing HIV awareness campaign and campaigns to fight TB in the country, effective medical facilities and care Funds to be used on purchase of drugs, payment of health workers, funding awareness and campaigns, and in subsidizing the cost of treatment for the two diseases 3 Nuclear Accidents 28 $1.34 billion Insuring nuclear plants and employing safety measures at all time Funds to be used in evacuation of workers and people living in the surrounding, temporal resettlement of residence, compensation of the affected individual particularly on health care, and reconstructions of the plants 4 Human trafficking 15 $717.5 million Working with international governments and organization to curb human trafficking Funds to be used in human trafficking awareness, search of individuals involved and rehabilitation, implementation of prevention programs, funding anti-trafficking national plan coordination, and equipping the national council of immigration in Russia 5 Technological risks 36 $1.72 billion Property and life insurance with main insurance companies in Russia Evacuation of the affected people, reconstruction of governmental involved infrastructure and structures, training in industries, and implementation of health and safety policies in the country 6 Discrimination risk 20 $956.7 million Accepting the risk involved, employment of new employment policies, social inclusion strategies Money to be used on empowering the discriminated in the society through technical training, funding their businesses, and employment of new policies 7 Regional stability risk 20 $956.7 million Enhancement of internal security and intelligence system, forming treaties with the surrounding nations Trying to establish peace with Ukraine and Georgia through peace treaties, use in training more militants and funding their activities 8 Organized crimes 18 $861 million Life and property insurance, strengthening of the country’s criminal law and institutions ethical standards Enhancing the internal security of the country, enhancement of the country’s judicial system, working with international nations to destroy the networks 9 Terrorism 15 $717.5 million Property and life insurance, enhancement of the internal security and collaboration with strong nations in the world fighting terrorism financing; blocking huge deposits and withdrawals, establishing national terrorist database, monitoring of boarders and entry points, intensifying on the country’s intelligence and security units 10 Pollution 45 $2.15 Billion Focusing more on renewable energies, demanding for green production Focusing on implementation of green production laws, creating laws on minimal regional emission, funding new procedure or equipment needed to enhance green production, embracing renewable sources of energy. Total $13.25 billion 5.0. Conclusion The Russia risk assessment offers a clear direction to the government regarding the major risks the country is facing. The national risks have been classified as Natural, technical, and civil risks. Among them, technical risks been found to poster a higher economic, health and social distress to the country compared to others, though in a small margin compared to civil risks. The Russia government therefore has to put more effort on these risks together will all other identified risks to enhance a safe and happy nation. 6.0. References Danaher, B 2012, Using fault trees and event trees to manage risk, Gibson associates. [online] Available at: http://www.qrc.org.au/conference/_dbase_upl/1995_spk019_Danaher.pdf [Accessed on June 20, 2016]. Finckenauer, J. O & Voronin, Y. A, 2001, “The threat of Russian organized crime,” National Institute of Justice, pp. 1-30. 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Petrova, E, 2011, “Critical infrastructure in Russia: Geographical analysis of accidents triggered by natural hazards,” Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, vol.10, no.1, pp. 53-58. Roffey, R, 2014, “Climate change and natural disaster: A challenge for Russian policymakers,” [online] Available at: < file:///C:/Users/lenovo/Downloads/foir_3874.pdf> [Accessed on June 20, 2016]. Slivyak, V, 2014, “Russian nuclear industry overview,” Pay More for Nuclear: Report 4, [online] Available at: < http://earthlife.org.za/www/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/russian-nuc-ind-overview.pdf> [Accessed on June 20, 2016]. Unisdr.org, 2005, “National report of the Russian Federation at the world conference on disaster reduction,” [online] Available at: < http://www.unisdr.org/2005/mdgs-drr/national-reports/Russia-report.pdf> [Accessed on June 20, 2016]. Read More