India National Risk Register - Hazards and Vulnerabilities - Report Example

UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL LANCASHIRE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING INDIA NATIONAL RISK REGISTER JUNE 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 LIST OF TABLES 4 1.0 Introduction 5 2.0 Hazards and Vulnerabilities 6 2.1 Corruption 9 2.2 Information and Cyber insecurity 9 Terrorism 10 2.4 Crimes 11 2.5 Strikes 12 2.6 Accidents 12 2.7 Intellectual property rights 13 2.8 Fire 13 2.9 Workplace Violence and Sexual harassment: 14 2.10 Natural hazard 14 3.0 Hazard Identification basis:- 16 3.0 Hazard Identification basis 16 3.1 Identification and quantification of risks 16 3.2 Was it sufficient, rigorous, original or outstanding 16 3.3 Risk assessment effect on practice 16 3.4 Recommendation for dealing with risk and the adequacy level 17 3.6 Risk analysis and evaluation by using risk matrix:- 17 3.6 Risk analysis and evaluation by using risk matrix:- 17 Summary of risk rating of ten risk:- 21 4.0 Part 2:- Fault tree analysis 22 3.5Funds Allocations to deal the Risks 24 5.0 Conclusion 26 References 26 LIST OF TABLES Figure 1:- national loses fault tree 24 List of Figure Figure 1:- national loses fault tree 24 1.0 Introduction India which is officially the Republic of India is located in South Asia. By area it is the seventh largest while in terms of population in is ranked second with a population of well over 1.2 billion. In the South the country is surrounded by the Indian Ocean, in the south- west we have the Arabian Sea while on the south east we have Bay of Bengal its border. The country borders Pakistan to the west, on the north east we have Bhutan, China and Nepal as the neighbours while Bangladesh, Myanma (Burma) are the neighbours. In the Indian Ocean the closest neighbours to India are Sri Lanka and Maldives and the Andaman and NiCOBAR Islands have Thailand and Indonesia as their borders. Currently the economy of India ranks seventh in terms of nominal GDP and is placed third in terms of purchasing power parity (RBI, 2015). As a result of the market based reforms that was undertaken in 1991, India became among the fastest growing big economies and currently it is considered to a newly industrialized country. Even with this progress the country continues to deal with a number of challenges including high level of poverty, malnutrition, high rate of corruption and in adequate public health care. India is one of the countries in possession of nuclear weapons and is a regional power, in terms of standing army the country is ranked third and sixth with regards military expenditure. The country is a federal republic that is under parliamentary system governance and it has seven union territories and 29 states. The country is a pluralistic, multilingual and also multi-ethnic. 2.0 Hazards and Vulnerabilities India as a country is vulnerable to a number of emergencies. The level of impact that comes with hazards the risk level are identified according to table 1.1 and table 1.2. While table 1.3 gives the uncertainty scale Table 1.1: Impact scales guidelines. Ranking Classification Impact Description 5. Catastrophic Health, Infrastructure Social Multiple of single death Costs to Event of up to $5 million International and National Media outrage 4. Major Health, Infrastructure Social Serious health impacts on multiple or single persons or permanent disability. Costs to Event between $2.5 – $5 million National media outrage 3. Moderate Health, infrastructure Social More than ten days rehabilitation required for injured persons Costs to Event between $200,000 and $2.5 million Local media and community concern 2. Low Health, Welfare & Life Infrastructure Social Injury to person resulting in lost time and claims Costs to Event between $50,000 and $200,000 Minor isolated concerns raised by stakeholders, customers 1. Negligible Health, infrastructure Social Persons requiring first aid Costs to Event up to $50,000 Minimum impact to reputation Table 1.2: likelihood scales in the National Risk Assessment 2012. Ranking Classification Probability 5. A high likelihood Events are most likely expected to appear in many instances There is an extremely high likelihood of the threat to reappear in future 4. A significant likelihood The same cases of threats have once been experienced a regular pattern The hazard is considered that its probability of occurrence again is high 3. A moderate likelihood Cases of threats and risks do not frequently occur in recent past 2. A low likelihood Minimal number of known cases have been recorded in the past The event has no occur yet, but it is projected to occur after some periods 1. A negligible likelihood The incidences have never occurred in the past There are very minimal chances that the hazard might occur under special circumstances Table 1.3: uncertainty scale in the National Risk Assessment Low risk (CEELONG, 2014 ) Table 1:- risk matrix ranking 2.1 Corruption The number one ranking risk in India is corruption which can also be described as fraud or bribery. Low pay for most of the workers in the country has been sited as the reason of high level of corruption in the country. The world economic forum sited corruption as the highest ranking factor that makes India to be uncondusive for business. As a result of this the country economy incurs a great economic in addition to the country losing reputation on the global scale. Corruption in India has increased rapidly in the country in the recent past. After the process of identifying the ranking of the various risk in India corruption remained outstanding. The evaluation revealed that corruption had greatly affected the level of investment in India. with this background it was recommended that apart from the country taking bold steps towards recovery, there was urgency in having early warning system and a sanction monitoring. As an attempt of stemming the wide spread corruption in the country, many laws and legislation have been established in the recent past example being the prevention of corruption act (Development, 2014). 2.2 Information and Cyber insecurity In India just as in most countries in all undertakings in the government, transport, manufacturing, health, generation of power, education, finance, and many other commercial and social interactions are undertaken by the national and commercial information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure. There is high dependency on ICT at individual, national as well as transnational levels. The major step that is undertaken so as to enhance cyber security is creation of awareness to all information technology companies in the country. The year 2013 recorded very high incidences of cyber in India with close to 308371 websites being reported to be hacked 78 of which were government websites. Some of the cyber crimes involved online bullying, hate crimes among other forms of online harassment (Studies, 2014). Symantec which is internal security provider has revealed that between 2012-2013 there was a very rapid increase in cyber crime in the country with the government having to part with 4 billion dollars (Hiudu, 2013). The recommendation given was that in order to bring down the level of cyber crime there was a great need for implementing India Cyber Security Policy 2013 (Ravinder Paliwal, 2015). 2.3 Terrorism The home ministry of India recognizes that terrorism poses a significant thread to the citizens of India (Terrorism Fatalities in India, 2014). The terrorism types found in India include religious terrorism, ethno-nationalism terrorism, narco terrorism and left wing terrorism (Sharma, 2013). Some of the areas in India associated with long term terrorism are Jammu and Kashmir, the Seven Sister States, east-central and south-central India. In 2008 National Security Advisor of India indicated that there close to 800 terrorist sales in the country (The Times of India, 2008). In 2012 231 people lost their lives due to terrorism and by the 2013 in 205 of the country’s 608 terrorism activities were reported. Terrorism in India are believed to be under the sponsorship of Pakistan mostly through the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) (Kronstadt,2012). 2.4 Crimes There is a lot of tension and worry that is created in the Indian economy because of crime. With the country being highly associated with acts of robbery with violence the tourism sector is highly affected. The crime level increased two time between 2012 and 2013 with most cases the victims of crimes being children and women. In between these two years an increase of 65% in crime was registered, making the country to be among the most violent prone countries in the world. In cities like Mumbai there has been high increase of rape cases, the increase being approximated at 100% between 2012 and 2013. Cases of tourists being violated , robbed of their belongings or attacked have also been reported frequently. Crime has had a very bad effect on the tourism industry the result being poor performance of the economy. After the situation being evaluated cases of murder, abduction and pickpocketing have been have been reported to have declined. The reduction in this type of crime means that the negative effect associated with the same towards business and tourists have reduced. As a further remedy to crimes it is important for the country to invest heavily in technology systems (Ravinder Paliwal, 2015). 2.5 Strikes: In India cases of strikes, unrest and closures are mostly experienced from civil servants and industrial workers. Salary increase demands, social and job security are the major reasons that lead to strikes have led to losses on millions of dollars in the country and a result of the unrest and strikes that take place every year. The unwillingness of industry managers to have open negotiations with the workers and the trade unions have been cited as the cause of frequent strikes. Marutimanesar plant is a good example of the adverse effect that come as a result of a strike. The industrial strike of 2012 in the company resulted to INR 1 billion being lost the company operations also came down (Pinkerton, 2014 ). Apart from the obvious reduction in transaction levels at in the industries the transport sector is another casualty of the strikes. Having open negotiations has been shown to be an effective way of curbing strikes. Assessment has also revealed that when there are strikes the positive competition between among companies is reduced, and this acts as an impediment of India ascending to a position of a developed nation. 2.6 Accidents Accidents are highly rampant in India and they claim many people who would have contributed in the development of the economy. Many accidents in the country are linked to careless driving with traffic rules not being observed. India accounts 10% of all the accidents occurring worldwide! In 2011 the total number of people lost through road accidents were 1,42,485 (India, 2011). Even though accidents are a rare occurrence when they occur the impact is usually of big scale. According to reports those most affected by accidents are cyclists and pedestrians. Accidents is a highly distressing factor because those who are mostly affected are the bread winners because this are the people who are most on the roads. Reckless driving, poor infrastructure are some of the factors that result to road accidents. It has been reported that there is likely to be an increase in road accidents in developing countries as opposed to a decrease. Through accidents many young and energetic members of the society are lost. 2.7 Intellectual property rights Involvement in intellectual theft is rampant in India where it takes the form of hacking and production of counterfeits. The most affected sector most is computer software and hardware, mobile phone as well as motor vehicle industry. 2.8 Fire Fire has been a common phenomenon in India with close to 25,000 people dying as a result of fire related incidents. There are some safety measures which have been in place which have contributed to some reduction in the incidences but this has lowered the incidences to a tolerable level. Many fire incidences come about as a result of lack of safety measures while other fire incidences are attributed to arson. Fire incidences have resulted to loss of lives as well as property worth millions of dollars. There is need for installing new active fire systems such as smoke detectors, sprinklers and clean agent systems (review, 2015). 2.9 Workplace Violence and Sexual harassment: There has been rising cases of sexual harassment of women at work place as revealed by recent statistics by national commission of woman (NCW) in India. In 2011 the number of cases that were reported was 170; in 2013 we had 249 cases that were reported while 336 were reported in 2013. The government of India has shown some interest in curbing this vise where a new act has been established dabbed sexual harassment of women at workplace act 2013. in order for there to be improvement with regards to this situation complying with the act is important, so as to bring about improved workplace environment for women and this will go a long way in reducing the cost of doing business as there will be more women willing to work after being assured of being treated with the respect they deserve (Singh, 2013). 2.10 Natural hazard There have many types of which have been experienced in India in the recent years ranging between 2005-2014 and this include floods, tropical storms, earthquakes, heat waves and cyclones. Floods have been seen to be the worst natural hazard affecting India according to international disaster database. Floods that occurred in Kashmir claimed 215 lives with the government of India being incurring 977 million dollars in costs. Moreover, natural disaster cause major impact to the Indian economy as according to some official studies that shows, floods cost the Indian government about 15 billion dollars and earthquake about 1 billion dollars (India Q. , 2014). Drought is a complex and a slow on set phenomenon that affect an area ecologically affecting many people beyond at a scale that cannot be reached by any other natural hazards through causing very serious economic, social and environmental losses in any country regardless of the economic status. Drought may be defined as being the to be a prolonged period of dry weather or an abnormal dry weather whose consequence is a hydrological imbalance of serious scale causing losses of crop and inadequate supply of water needed for livestock as well as livestock. Other consequences of drought are reduced moisture availability which is well below the expectation for some specified period. Drought has a variation in terms of the terms it occurs, its duration, the intensity and the area coverage of its occurrence from one year to the other (Sinha, 2006). Desertification can be linked to the abuse of land in the time when there are adequate rains and the continued abuse in the periods where there is deficiency in rainfall level and with a combination of this desertification is the end result. In India about 90 million ha of land is prone to drought this being an area that is occupied by 300million people with about of these region being affected by drought once in four years (UN,1990). Other the years India has developed a governance system for drought monitoring, declaration and mitigation at varied levels that is fairly elaborate and institutionalized. There has been some overall development achievement as a result a result of the country responding to the need for having an enhanced drought management. A good example is the case of the green revolution that is linked to the drought of 1965 to 1967. While employment generation programmes were developed to assist the rural poor following the drought of 1972 while in the drought of 1987-1988 the government aimed at preserving the quality of life. 3.0 Hazard Identification basis:- 3.1 Identification and quantification of risks FICCI and Pinkerton Indian risk survey 2015 was used as the basis of identification of risk in addition to other information obtained from official government websites. 3.2 Was it sufficient, rigorous, original or outstanding? It was ensured that selection of risks were appropriate and related to all of the various types of hazards that are facing India. 3.3 Risk assessment effect on practice There are many organizations and authorities which were positively affected following is assessment. This is because the assessment opened door for improvement and enabling the government to address the threats in addition to being in a position of predicting probability of occurrence of similar risk in future. With the knowledge the government is well positioned in coming up with workable mitigation measures and strengthening the emergency plan (Ravinder Paliwal, 2015). 3.4 Recommendation for dealing with risk and the adequacy level A number of recommendations as well as statistics data can be very useful in coming up with required mitigation measures that when put in place will go a long way in prevention and reduction of the various hazards and impacts facing the country. 3.5 Consideration of insurance In the risk assessment process insurance was not considered 3.6 Risk analysis and evaluation by using risk matrix:- Risk matrix is the process that is used to determine the intensity, effect and influence of the risk being studied. For the given risks facing India as stated above, a five by five-risk matrix is generated to indicate each threat and the national risk matrix by explain the ranking of likelihood and consequences of each risk (see Table3) (defence, 2012). (CEELONG, 2014 ) Table 2:- risk matrix ranking RISK ID# Risk event Effect L I K E L I Y H O O D CONSEQUENCES Risk ranking Actions from Government 1 Corruption Corruption plays a major role in increasing the cost of doing business in India. (Development, 2014). HIGH MAJOR 20 There should be improved pay of employees and also increased transparency in government spending Establishing restrict laws and legislation in order to reduce the impact of corruption 2 Information and Cyber insecurity Companies are to incur high costs in hiring staff who are to take care updating of the systems regularly. HIGH MAJOR 20 Installation of antivirus and ensuring firewall is active among other measures. 3 Terrorism Results to destruction of property , has negative effect on tourism and brings about religious tensions MODERATE CATASTROPHY 15 Funds directed towards improving intelligence system and investment in modern equipment. Creating an active policy and strategy to avoid the terrorism activities 4 Crimes Crime leads to fear in population which results to low investment level, loss of productive members SIGNIFICANT MAJOR 16 Strengthening laws for dealing with those found guilty of crimes and implementation of social education on crimes 5 strikes, closures and unrest Improving situations of the workers both in government and in private sector. MODERATE MAJOR 12 Improving remuneration of workers and improving the general working condition. 6 Accidents Accidents results to loss of life of active members of society and it results to many being disabled SIGNIFICANT MAJOR 16 Road safety classes are to be made compulsory and roads are to be put in good condition. Provide strict laws and fines for people who do not respect road rules including those found driving under influence of drugs to have their driving cancelled if they are found breaking the same law a number of times. 7 Intellectual property rights Counterfeighting results to greater losses for artists, writers and innovators. MODERATE MAJOR 12 Creating awareness in the public with regards to the vise and by ensuring trademarks and patents are secured and registered 8 Fire Fire leads to loss of property as well as lives. Those who survive fire accidents may be disabled for the rest of their lives. MODERATE CATASTROPHY 15 Increased public awareness of the dangers of fire and establishing codes that will ensure safety in buildings of different classes 9 Workplace Violence sexual harassment This usually leads to loss of jobs for those who fail to yield to demands from the offenders. It also leads to low productivity in the victims due to anxiety for fear of losing one's job. SIGNIFICANT MAJOR 16 This calls for implementation of anti-sexual harassment laws and both men and women being enlightened on their rights at their work place. 10 Natural hazard It can cause major disruption to all essential infrastructures such as, bridge, hospital and hotels. Cause huge impact to economy as it cost billions of dollars for recovery process SIGNIFICANT CATASTROPHY 20 Government shall have a strong plan for emergencies for all stage of hazards from the incident occurring to the recovery stage. Establishing a good plan for business continuity to make sure that all organization will run their roles and responsibilities during emergencies without any disruptions Table 3:- Description of ten risk Summary of risk rating of ten risk:- LIKELIHOOD RISK RANKING MATRIX HIGH . Corruption .Information and Cyber insecurity SIGNIFICANT . Crimes . Accidents . Workplace Violence sexual harassment . Natural hazard MODERATE . strikes, closures and unrest . Intellectual property rights . Terrorism . Fire LOW NEGLIGIBLE CONSEQUENCE NEGLIGIBLE LOW MODERATE MAJOR CATASTROPHY Table 4:- distribution of ten risk The above risk matrix show the top ten risk to India and show some factors as following:- 4.0 Part 2:- Fault tree analysis Fault tree analysis (FTA) can be seen as being a top method that is used in explaining the design and performance of a system. This involves first the selection of a top even and then the description of the other related elements that may be responsible of the top even occurring. The FTA involves the use of the tow logics AND and OR describing the top event. Occupying the top slot of the fault tree is the National loss, under which the undesirable vents which includes strategic, operational are and safety hazards and the actual causes of the undesirable events being given. Qualitative and quantitative study of the structure is then done by determining their probability and impact. The fault tree analysis for national loss in India can describe as below; Figure 1:- national loses fault tree 3.5Funds Allocations to deal the Risks GDP under nominal of India is $ 2.308trillion dollars India uses rupee as their currency and India will come as the seventh largest economy in the world on 2015 according its (nominal) GDP. One U.S dollar is equivalent to 63. 52 rupees. The government then put set aside one per cent of the GDP to deal with the top ten risks in the country. The amount is supposed be divided according to the way that particular risk affects the country. The one percent is equivalent to$ 23.08 billion(fund, 2015 ). Rating Risk Risk rating Amount allocated Importance of funds Spending of funds 1 Corruption 20 $3.53billion The funds will go a long way in improving the judicial system The funds should be directed towards the improvement of the judicial systems, vetting of judges and increasing manpower and infrastructure 2 Information and Cyber insecurity 20 $2.3 billion This can be used in implementation of cyber 2013 policy The funds can be used in investment in new technologies 3 Terrorism 15 $2.3 billion Funds can be directed towards training Installation of CCTV as a way of boosting the security level 4 Crimes 16 $2.3 billion This will help in addressing the need of modern technology in curbing crime. . Installation of CCTV as a way of boosting the security level 5 strikes, closures and unrest 12 $1.15billion This should go towards improvement in workplace improvement Increased wage level and improvement of general work place environment ‘6 Accidents 16 $2.3 billion Direct funds towards strategies and legislation Construction of more pedestrian and cyclist lanes. direct some funds towards media campaign 7 Intellectual property rights 12 2.3billion Fund may be directed towards establishment of new authority that will be charged with control and prevention of intellectual property. Money to be used in monitoring the intellectual property rights. send local professional abroad for training of property rights and also bring in some foreign experts from developed countries. 8 Fire 15 $2.3 billion The funds will be important in development of fire prevention strategies. Investing in new fire engines and installation of firefighting equipment 9 Workplace Violence sexual harassment 16 $2.3 billion Funds will be directed towards ensuring a safe workplace There will be installation on monitoring system at workplace as this will help in curbing workplace violence 10 Natural hazard 20 $2.3 billion Funds to be directed towards establishing of new emergency and recovery plans. Investing in dams for storage of water for use in irrigation Deliberating on centralization of critical infrastructure. Ensure high standard in buildings so that building can withstand earthquakes. Grand Total $23 billion Table 5:- funds to deal with ten risks 5.0 Conclusion From this risk analysis the risks that India is prone to as a country have been enumerated. Some of the events that have been rated as being of high risk include Terrorism, crimes, natural disasters and cyber incidences. These risk rating are mostly determined geological and geographical location of India. 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