Brazil Risk Assessment and Management - Term Paper Example

Student Name: xxxx Tutor: xxxx Title: Risk Assessment for Brazil Date: xxxx ©2016 Table of Contents 1.Introduction 4 2.Risk Assessment 5 2.1Corruption 5 2.2Poverty 6 2.3Education challenges 6 2.4Unemployment 7 2.5Social risks 8 2.6Health risks 9 2.7Political risks 9 2.8Environmental challenges 10 2.9Economic risks 11 2.10Natural disasters 12 3.Risk Analysis 14 3.1 Risk Matrix 15 Risk 18 National Loss 18 Nation 18 Industry 18 Population 18 Individual 18 Loss of public finances; 19 Compromises quality of service delivery 19 Lack of funds to facilitate opportunities for growth 19 Destruction of people’s livelihoods 19 Numerous street families in urban areas 19 Increase in child labourers 19 Weakening of population 19 Loss of life; Deplorable living conditions 19 No development of the country as a whole 19 No skills that can be utilized in economic growth 19 People cannot disengage themselves from poverty 19 Unable to grasp opportunities for personal development 19 Country’s development is hampered 19 Increase in criminal activities 19 No source of livelihoods 19 Deplorable living conditions; 19 Numerous street families in urban areas 19 Lack of labour for industrial activities 19 High HIV/ AIDS prevalence rates; Loss of family institutions 19 Decent into drug and substance abuse 19 Interferes with productivity 19 Lack of labour for industrial activities 19 Weakened population; Reduced reproduction 19 Loss of life 19 Loss of national pride; 19 Unhealthy environment for industrial development 19 Division along political views; Affects integration 19 Loss of property; 19 Loss of national heritage 19 Depletion of natural resources for economic activities 19 Population subjected to adverse weather phenomena 19 Loss of life; Loss of property 19 Loss of investment 19 Increases the cost of production 19 Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the population 19 Common basic goods become increasingly unaffordable 19 Destruction of infrastructure 19 Disruption of economic procedures 19 Destruction of people’s livelihoods 19 Loss of life; Loss of property 19 4.Fault Tree Analysis 20 5.GDP Allocation 22 References 24 1. Introduction Brazil is the largest country in both the Latin America and the South American continent (fifth in the world by geographical area and population), covering an approximate area of 8,515,767 km2, which accounts for 47.3% of the continent[Int14]. It is the largest Portuguese speaking nation in the world. Brazil is the largest national economy in South America due to the presence of vast natural resources, such as mineral deposits, and large labour force which facilitates the country’s activity in the agricultural, mining, manufacturing and service industries [The08]. However, it is classified as a Third World country due to the limited access to basic social amenities by a majority of the country’s population. The country spans over varying geographical and environmental conditions, with the Atlantic Ocean to the east, the Amazon forest and river basin in the middle and seismically active regions near its border with Peru and Chile. As a result, the country experiences a myriad of challenges and risks that the government has to deal with, notwithstanding the social risks brought about by the vast population. The analysis of hazards and risk assessment is an essential component in the process of identifying the challenges that are faced by society, and giving priority to the direst risks. [Eul161] ranks Brazil with sensitive risks after performing analyses on economic indicators. Comprehensive risk assessments allows for better preparedness of the community to deal with emergencies that may arise, by determining the likelihood of occurrence of a risk and the impact the occurrence of said risk would have on the local population [Swe12]. Once the risks have been quantified, simulations or scenarios are run to determine the extent of devastation that will occur before the available resources are able to cope with the situation. This allows the government to identify the areas less prepared and provide them with the necessary resources. This paper focusses on the major risks and challenges the Brazilian Government faces as it strives towards National Development, and the solutions that may be implemented to overcome these challenges. 2. Risk Assessment The major risks and challenges that need to be addressed by the Government include; Education challenges, Health risks, Environmental challenges, Political risks, Economic risks, Social challenges, Corruption, Poverty and Natural disasters. The ranking of risks based on the priority of action required is as follows; 2.1 Corruption In many Third World countries, corruption is in-twined in the day to day running of the country. Corruption can be attributed to be the main cause of most of the challenges that the general population face on a daily basis. In Brazil, the core corruption challenges lie not in the street level, petty corruption, but in systems, institutions and organizations that have facilitated grand corruption to persist as a disease weakening social and political trust, as well as undermining economic growth. Some of the most notable scandals to rock the Brazilian Government include Collorgate and Budgetgate, which led to impeachment of President Collor de Melo and the resignation and expulsion of members of Congress [Car14]. This grand corruption transcends all branches of government. This makes it virtually impossible to eradicate corruption as the institutions tasked with its oversight are the most compromised, with no accountability being taken to task over lost and embezzled resources. Even in cases where corruption has been exposed, such as ‘Operation Bloodsuckers’, the people responsible are able to get off scot free due to their influence on the punishing authorities, such as the Judiciary. Mitigation The eradication of corruption in the dealings of the Government and other leaders must begin with a change in mindset of the people. There is need for major overhauls in the institutions mandated to police corruption, in order to break the grip these bigwigs may have on the economy. Significant punishment, relatable to the offence, should be dished out whenever someone is found guilty of corruption, irrespective of their social status to discourage the vice. 2.2 Poverty The income distribution in Brazil is one of the most unequal in the world, with a Gini coefficient of 0.60, compared with 0.42 which was the average for the other Latin America nations in the 1990’s. The gap between the rich and poor is also the largest in Brazil. In tandem with low economic growth, this prevented the reduction of the country’s poverty rate, which stood at 7.4% in 2015 [The162]. However, there has been no significant change in the income distribution among the population over the years, with the upper 20% raking in over 60% of the income. The poverty is so rampant in the country that children of the poor are forced to work in order to help their parents support the family, against child labour laws. minenos de rua represents the youth working in the urban informal sector, engaging in activities such as shining shoes and garbage collection, to drug trafficking, theft and prostitution. It is a common occurrence for children to severe relations with their families due to hunger, neglect or exploitation [Inc97]. Mitigation The implementation of the macroeconomic stabilization plan, known as Brazil’s Real Plan in 1994 went a long way in reducing the poverty rate by increasing the income generated by the poor. The per capita income for the lowest 4 deciles increased by 30%, compared to 10% for the top decile. This coupled with reduced inflation, increases the income for the poor and lower middle class. Through government interventions such as public education, the minimum wage law, Social Security pensions and Social Assistance transfers, the poverty and inequality indicators have improved dramatically in the recent years [deS12]. 2.3 Education challenges Although Brazil had the highest dollar income per capita in Latin America in 1990, its illiteracy ratio was four times that of Argentina, with the illiteracy rate for the population aged 15 and more standing at 18.8% [Min14]. This lack of basic education amongst a large portion of the youth can be attributed to the high cost of living, which necessitates the children to go help their guardians earn a living at the expense of school. This is turn means that this population can only hold menial jobs, which do not allow them to break free from the poverty cycle, forcing later generations into the same form of work. Mitigation The government could subsidize the cost of basic needs and amenities such as food and water to ease the burden on the poor, which would allow the children to go to school. Public awareness campaigns on the benefits of education could also be carried out to encourage the guardians to take the children to school. The implementation of Government policies, such as, Education for All, help overcome challenges that could hinder children from going to school. Such measures have significantly increased the proportion of the population attending schools, as shown below; Figure 1: School Attendance Rate for Population aged 0 -5 Years (Prepared by INEP1) 2.4 Unemployment The IBGE2 announced that employment contracted by -4% and the unemployment rate in Brazil recently reached the highest it has been in 7 years (8.2%) which shows a steady increase in the number of people who are unemployed [Tra16]. This results in a large number of people being unable to support themselves, or their families financially, causing them to delve into illegal practices such as theft and prostitution to make ends meet. The increase in unemployment, especially in urban areas, can be attributed to the large population without the necessary skills to hold down a job. The rural- urban migration in search of greener pastures has also aggravated the situation. The unemployment rate over the months of 2015 and 2016 is as shown; Figure 2: Brazil's Unemployment Rate (Sourced from IBGE) 2.5 Social risks The urban centres of Brazil have an estimated 7 to 17 million unsupervised and unprotected children, commonly referred to as street children. Estimates by the UNCHR indicate that the number could still be on the rise given the influx of population into urban areas, as well as the high HIV/ AIDS prevalence rate in the country which causes the death of parents and guardians [UNI96]. The widespread abuse of drugs, such as marijuana, inhalants, cocaine and other substances such as Valium and Rohypnol has been documented in numerous scientific studies. Due to the lack of employable skills, these youth often turn to crime to meet their daily needs. This, coupled with vigilante groups and police ‘death squads’ who target these street youths, turn some of the streets in Brazil’s urban centres into the most unsafe neighborhoods. The public view the street youth as pariah in their eyes, and as such are reluctant to help them with basic needs, preferring not to be in their presence [Inc97]. Mitigation Public awareness on the challenges faced by these urban youth could help sensitize the population to their plight which might compel them to provide whatever help they can to improve their status, which would make the neighbourhoods safer to reside. 2.6 Health risks The poor population of Brazil’s urban centres are exposed to a myriad of health risks, compounded by the poor levels of hygiene and sanitation in the favelas (slums). Outbreaks of cholera and dysentery could end up wiping out significant portions of this population due to the lack of access to basic medication. The Zika virus, spread by the Aedes mosquito, is the latest pandemic to hit the country. It is of main consequence to pregnant mothers and their unborn children, who are born with microcephaly3, who require better healthcare putting a lot of strain on the already scarce medical resources [Wor16]. HIV and AIDS is another major concern facing the population. Lack of public awareness and engaging in promiscuous acts, such as prostitution, facilitated the spread of HIV in the early 1990’s. The new infection rate was so high that the World Bank estimated that there would be about 1.2 million new infections by the new millennium [Mni03]. The HIV prevalence rate in the country stood at 0.6% in 2013, with Brazil representing the largest number of people living with HIV in Latin America at 47% [AVE15]. Mitigation The provision of health centres in the rural areas and the favelas could go a long way in reducing the deaths caused by treatable pandemics. Government policies such as Universal ARV provision made treatment readily available to HIV patients and social policies of public education which promoted the use of condoms helped prevent further transmission[Lev02]. 2.7 Political risks Recent studies have focused on extensive studies on the economic determinants of foreign investments, but the changes in the political atmosphere have received little attention, despite the major role they play in investor confidence. Political risks in the form of government instability, democratic accountability, ethnic tensions, law and order and the quality of bureaucracy determine the attitude of investors towards the country [Bus05]. Brazil has been subject to numerous political upheavals, caused mainly by corrupt dealings among the political class, which has led to impeachments, resignation and expulsion of some of the public representatives. The latest political intrigue is the pending impeachment of President Dilma Rouseff, which has been brought about by corruption allegations in regard to receiving illegal loans from state banks [Edg16]. Mitigation The greed for money and power among the social elite has resulted in engagements in underhand dealings. The Government should put in place effective mechanisms to deal with rogue politicians who put selfish personal interest above national interests. Procedures should also be put in place to ensure individuals suspected or indicted of dishonest behavior should not be allowed to vie for political office 2.8 Environmental challenges The Amazon forest is the largest rainforest in the world, with its basin feeding the Amazon River which is among the largest rivers in the world. However, due to the ever increasing demand placed on wood products as a result of industrialization, the forest is facing a threat due to illegal logging. About 30-40% of the forest has been concessioned to hydrocarbon companies. This is detrimental to economic activities such as agriculture, with the Amazon considered as a vital catchment area [Beb09]. The Amazon is also home to a large number of species, some of which are not available elsewhere, and its destruction will cause a decrease in the biodiversity. Issues such as pollution have rocked the country, especially with the hosting of some of the major sports tournaments. There was widespread pollution caused by the influx of people for The World Cup in 2014, and there is major concern in various circles that the environment has not been protected and preserved enough to hold the Summer Olympics in 2016 in Rio de Janeiro with some of the venues to hold the games being seriously polluted [Biz16]. Mitigation Government policies limiting the encroaching of companies into the rainforest and the river basin in order to maintain the ecology. There needs to be a balance between the needs of industrialization of the country and the environment. Implementation of the policies mitigating the release of toxins and contaminants into the natural environment by the guests for the games, could prevent pollution. There should also be effective waste disposal systems to cater for the increased demand on the sanitary systems. 2.9 Economic risks Brazil recorded the worst economic recession in 2015, with the real GDP contracting by -3.8% after stagnating at +0.1% the year before. There was also a significant collapse in investments (-14%) bringing it back to 2009 levels. Financial conditions for companies have tightened, with the banking rates rising strongly and stand above 20% on average, making repayment of loans very difficult. The high inflation and deteriorating labour market have caused private consumption to fall by -4%. The inflation rate reached +9% on average which was twice as much as the Central bank’s estimate, making it the highest rate in 12 years. Therefore, monetary policy will remain strict throughout 2016 as the inflation eases [Eul16]. The public finances have deteriorated rapidly with the public deficit widening to -10.3% of GDP in 2015, which can be attributed to a sharp increase in the payment of interests on public debt reaching 8.5% of GDP. Scandals and tightening monetary policies have led to strong downward pressures on the currency and increased financial volatility, making external conditions to be very adverse. Mitigation The Government should implement policies to limit the public debt surge through fiscal consolidation. However, the unpopularity of President Roussef has created strong political and social tensions that could hinder the adoption of these austerity measures. Hiking of raw materials necessary for the production of common household goods should be regulated to shelter the population from unreasonable inflation driven by selfish interests tring to rake in a profit. 2.10 Natural disasters Brazil has had its fair share of natural phenomena which have claimed the lives of countless lives and destroyed property. Climatic disasters such as hurricanes and tornados are frequent on the eastern regions of the country owing to the low pressure systems that develop in the area courtesy of the Amazon rainforest and the high tropical temperatures. These weather phenomena result in flooding of low- lying areas, and landslides in sloping areas with loose soils accounting for 82% of the total mortality between 1990 and 2014 [Pre15]. Brazil has also been rocked with earthquakes, especially along its border with Peru, due to the subduction of the Nazca plate into the Pacific Ocean. The most recent earthquake was the at Iberia in Peru, registering at 7.6 on the Richter scale [Ver14]. Although, Peru and Chile have borne the brunt of most of these earthquakes but Brazil has periodically experienced large magnitude earthquakes that devastate the population, with about 26 earthquakes being recorded in the past year [Ear16]. Mitigation A majority of natural phenomena are difficult to track, giving the authorities very little time to prepare and warn the population of the impending disaster. However, significant strides have been made in the recent past on early detection systems which could be implemented to help mitigate the losses to life and property in the case of these disasters. In areas prone to earthquake and flooding, practice drills can be performed to better acquaint the population with the necessary resources and procedures to boost their survival chances. Stand-by services can also be provided to provide emergency rescue services to these areas. 3. Risk Analysis Table 1: Classification of Probability Ranking Classification Probability 1 Extremely Unlikely Occurs only in extraordinary situations 2 Very Unlikely Not always expected to happen, usually an incident never recorded 3 Unlikely An infrequent incident with a random occurrence 4 Likely Regularly recorded incidents with a return period of between 1 to 10 years 5 Very Likely Frequently recorded with probability of occurring more than once every year Table 2: Classification of Impact of the Risks Ranking Classification Impact Description 1 Very Low Impact Health, Life, Welfare Number of people affected is limited Environmental Localized or simple contamination of environment Infrastructure, Social Disruption of local infrastructure and service operations for more than 48 hours 2 Low Impact Health, Life, Welfare A significant number of people, about 4 – 8 affected for a substantial amount of time Environmental Regional contamination for a short duration, simple to handle Infrastructure Expenditure cost should be more than 2 million but less than 24 million Social The functioning of the community is significantly inconvenienced 3 Moderate Impact Health, Life, Welfare Serious injuries and/ or casualties adding of about 8 – 20 people, requiring hospitalization Environmental Heavy contamination for an extended duration, requiring significant action Infrastructure Cost more than 24 million but less than 80 million Euros Social Societal functioning partial, with limited services available 4 High Impact Health, Life, Welfare About 20 – 50 casualties, over 100 seriously injured and 1600 persons evacuated Environmental Heavy, widespread contamination for an extended period Infrastructure Cost amounting to 80 – 200 million Euros Social Poor functioning of the community, with minimal services available 5 Very High Impact Health, Life, Welfare Hundreds of casualties with more than 1600 people evacuated Environmental Very heavy contamination that persists for a very long time Infrastructure Serious damage to infrastructure, damage not less than 200 million Euros Social Loss of crucial services for a significant duration 3.1 Risk Matrix The management of risk is very crucial for any company, societies and even countries as it allows them to be better prepared in case the risk exceeds acceptable limits, resulting in emergencies. For time immemorial, risks have only been regarded on the basis of their criticality and consequence on the local population. This comes at the detriment of the value of repeatability of the risk. One- time devastating event such as an earthquake will be highly regarded compared to smaller frequent events, such as criminal activities, despite the fact that these events are more likely to occur to most of the population and have a larger average mortality rate. This is captured by the quote by A. Arnaud; ‘Fear of harm ought to be proportional not merely to the gravity of the harm, but also the probability of the event’ [Ale]. A risk matrix is a table that has several categories of probability and impact of for risks. It associates a recommended level of risk, priority, urgency and management action with each row- column pair. It was developed as a method to consider both the criticality and the likelihood of occurrence of a risk, in order to allow the relevant authorities to focus on the direst risks that require immediate attention, and make plans for the less critical risks. They have been used in diverse applications such as terrorism risk analysis, highway construction project management, climate change risk management and enterprise risk management [Cox081]. The risk matrix takes the form below; Figure 3: Risk Assessment Matrix The simplest way to compare risks is on the basis of their expectation value which is a limit of the maximum expectation value for the risk. Challenges of the Risk Matrix This method of classifying and analyzing risks is not free from error and some of the challenges facing it include; 1. Different choices possess higher consequences as compared to others, such as political choices, despite their low probability of occurrence. There is therefore, need for something to be done for the ‘high consequence low probability’ risks, commonly referred to as ruin prevention. 2. Consequences are inherently multi- dimensional. Most consequences do not affect only on aspect of life, but have far reaching effects in varying sectors of the country. They involve loss of money and resources, environmental damage and injury and death of people. 3. Similar value is given to risks. Risk matrices have a generalization effect which groups risks with similar occurrence probability or criticality together, despite the gravity of one being more than the other. Table 3: Brazil National Risk Matrix Risk Identification Qualitative Risk Assessment Risk Response No Risk Event Effect Likelihood Impact Overall Actions 1 Corruption Embezzlement of public funds; Poor public service delivery; Increased cost of living; Increased poverty; Decline in economy VL H H Establishment of incorruptible institutions that will hold the leaders accused of corruption to account; Significant punishment to offenders found guilty of corruption to serve as a lesson to others 2 Poverty Deplorable living conditions; Hunger and homelessness; Loss of lives; Increase in child labourers; Numerous street families in urban areas VL H H The Government to provide subsidies on common need goods, such as food and water, to the poor 3 Education Challenges No skill development; No betterment of financial position; Unable to claim opportunities VL M M Development of more public schools to offer the youth a stable foundation on which they can build their lives, Proper pricing not to discourage the poor 4 Unemployment No source of livelihood; Deplorable living conditions; Increase in criminal activities VL H H Establishment of technical schools to develop skills of the youth; Offer programs relevant to the market; Creation of safe, healthy working environment for businesses to flourish 5 Social Risks Youth engaging in drug abuse and prostitution; High HIV/ AIDS prevalence in the country; Numerous street families in urban areas L M M Establishment of drug rehabilitation centres; Enrolling youth in meaningful activities that could help the generate income; Provision of HIV/ AIDS medication and counselling centres 6 Health risks Loss of life; Reduced productivity of the population; Diversion of expenditure from income generating activities; Weakening of population VL H H Provision of affordable healthcare to the population; Public awareness campaigns to prevent further spread of communicable diseases; 7 Political Challenges Poor leadership; Decline in economy; Loss of national pride; L M L Development of issue- based politics; Establishment of institutions to handle rogue leaders 8 Environmental challenges Global warming; Harsh climatic conditions; Loss of bio- diversity; Loss pf national heritage; L M L Establishment of policies managing the exploitation of non- renewable natural resources; Punishment for individuals and organizations found guilty of environmental pollution 9 Economic risks Decline in the economy; Loss of investor confidence; L M M Shelter the general population from adverse effects of inflation; Investment in economic activities that promote the production of basic goods; Maintaining healthy economic environment to increase investor confidence 10 Natural Disasters Loss of life; Loss of property; destruction of infrastructure; destruction of people’s livelihoods L M M Provision of emergency departments to provide crucial services in the occurrence of natural disasters; Investment in early warning systems to allow the population to evacuate disaster prone areas in time Table 4: National Loss Risk National Loss No Risk Event Nation Industry Population Individual 1 Corruption Loss of public finances; Compromises quality of service delivery Lack of funds to facilitate opportunities for growth Destruction of people’s livelihoods 2 Poverty Numerous street families in urban areas Increase in child labourers Weakening of population Loss of life; Deplorable living conditions 3 Education Challenges No development of the country as a whole No skills that can be utilized in economic growth People cannot disengage themselves from poverty Unable to grasp opportunities for personal development 4 Unemployment Country’s development is hampered Increase in criminal activities No source of livelihoods Deplorable living conditions; 5 Social Risks Numerous street families in urban areas Lack of labour for industrial activities High HIV/ AIDS prevalence rates; Loss of family institutions Decent into drug and substance abuse 6 Health risks Interferes with productivity Lack of labour for industrial activities Weakened population; Reduced reproduction Loss of life 7 Political Challenges Loss of national pride; Unhealthy environment for industrial development Division along political views; Affects integration Loss of property; 8 Environmental challenges Loss of national heritage Depletion of natural resources for economic activities Population subjected to adverse weather phenomena Loss of life; Loss of property 9 Economic risks Loss of investment Increases the cost of production Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the population Common basic goods become increasingly unaffordable 10 Natural Disasters Destruction of infrastructure Disruption of economic procedures Destruction of people’s livelihoods Loss of life; Loss of property 4. Fault Tree Analysis A fault tree is a logical diagram constructed to show the relationships between logical events, their causes and consequences. It shows all the different relationships necessary to result in the top event. Figure 4: Fault Tree Analysis of Brazil's Risks Conclusions Corruption plays a significant role in contributing to the national loss as it affects many sectors of the country. Social risks, such as drugs and crime are also a major factor, especially where loss of life, injury to people and damage to property are concerned. 5. GDP Allocation The allocation of limited resources to cater for unlimited wants has been an age old problem. ‘On what basis shall it be decided to allocate an amount of money to one activity instead of another?’ is a question that has plagued economists for a long time. Brazil’s GDP amounted to US$ 2,245.7 billion in 2013 (ranking 7th in the world) [Eul16]. Assuming that 1% of this money is allocated for the management of the aforementioned risks, the distribution may be done as shown below; Table 5: Budgetary Allocation of Risks Risk % of GDP Amount (bill. US $) Justification Corruption 11% 2.47 The funds will be used to establish credible institutions to curb the widespread corruption in governmental institutions. Accountability should be upheld and enough funds provided to curtail the temptation of officials to be tempted to illicit deals Poverty 15% 3.37 The funds will be used to alleviate the living conditions of most of the population. This can be achieved by providing subsidies on common household goods for the part of the population that cannot afford it. Education challenges 15% 3.37 Investing in education means the youth of the future are provided with a chance to be self- sufficient. The funds can be used for the opening and operation of elementary education at affordable costs for the population Unemployment 18% 4.04 The funds can be used to create opportunities for the youth to find jobs. The establishment of technical schools to provide them with the necessary skillsets so that they can be ‘employable’. The Government should also create a healthy working environment to ensure entrepreneurs can operate their businesses safely. Social risks 18% 4.04 The funds can be used to fight the war against drugs which is widespread in the country’s youth. The establishment of rehabilitation facilities to help with their recovery and acquiring skills they can use. Health risks 10% 2.25 Funds will be used to conduct research on common diseases affecting the populace to come up with affordable medication and preventive measures. The funds can also be used to make HIV/ AIDS medication more affordable to those who can’t afford it. Political challenges 5% 1.12 The establishment of public institutions tasked with overseeing the conduct of political leaders and the process of political decisions Economic risks 3% 0.674 Funds will be allocated to the economic activities that are sources of livelihood to shelter the population from economic forces such as inflation. Development of more comprehensive internal trade policies to better the country’s economy could also be done. Natural Disasters 5% 1.12 Earthquakes and flooding interfere with productivity of food and its availability. Therefore, there is need to allocate funds for emergency services and preventive projects such as defense walls TOTAL 22.457 References Int14: , (Internet Archive, 2014), The08: , (The World Factbook, 2008), Eul161: , (Euler Hermes, 2016), Swe12: , (Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), 2012), Car14: , (Carson & Prado, 2014), The162: , (The World Bank, 2016), Inc97: , (Inciardi & Surrat, 1997), deS12: , (de Souza, 2012), Min14: , (Ministry of Education of Brazil, 2014), Tra16: , (Trading Economics, 2016), UNI96: , (UNICEF, 1996), Wor16: , (Worth, 2016), Mni03: , (Ministry of Health of Brazil, 2003), AVE15: , (AVERT, 2015), Lev02: , (Levi & Vitoria, 2002), Bus05: , (Busse & Hefeker, 2005), Edg16: , (Edgerton & Galvao, 2016), Beb09: , (Bebbington, 2009), Biz16: , (Bizarro, et al., 2016), Eul16: , (Euler Hermes, 2016), Pre15: , (PreventionWeb, 2015), Ver14: , (Vervaeck, 2014), Ear16: , (Earthquake Track, 2016), Ale: , (Ale & Slater, 2008), Cox081: , (Cox, 2008), Read More