Political Economic Situation of HK - Research Paper Example

Political Economic Situation of HK Since and before the handover of Honk Kong back to China in 1997, there has been tension between Hong Kongers andthe government in Beijing. The tension has been on democratic situation of the city. On September 22, the existing pressure turned into a protest after the Hong Kong Federation of Students (HKFS), organized a strike. The strike was necessitated by the formation of a law that gave the government in Beijing the power to influence elections in Hong Kong. However, the Occupy Central (OC) movement was launched officially on September 28, 2014 after HKFS, OC with Love and Peace (OCLP) and other movements united against the central government. The objective of the movement is to exhibit an organized and united determination for actual universal suffrage for Hong Kong’s Chief Executive (CE) in 2017. It wants to show a united dissatisfaction over the proposal by the National People’s Congress to demand that CE candidates be screened. This paper discusses the long-term impacts of the movement and meaning of independence of Hong Kong. It also discusses possible democratization of China. Long-term Impacts of the Movement On the immediate situation, the movement has affected the economy. In the sector, hotels, restaurants, and retail are the most affected. In 2013, 41 million visitors from mainland China went to Hong Kong (Cunich, 2014). This year, the number of visitors from the mainland has gone down. The China National Tourism Administration has stopped tourists under package tours from visiting HK. The results have been the shortcomings in the economy as 30 percent of Chinese visitors travel via package tours. However, the stoppage of package tours is a temporary measure and does not point to the long-term structural change in China. It does not also mean that the Chinese government would cut the Individual Visitors Scheme (IVS) as it is one of the China’s bigger plans for integration with Hong Kong. Therefore, the movement has no long-term impacts on the economy. However, its long-term political and social effects can lead to long-term economic results. Nonetheless, protests that have become more frequent are likely to erode the appeal of Hong Kong to global firms. Hang Seng index, the local stock market benchmark, has tumbled over 9% since hitting a peak in six months in September. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority revealed that banks have closed down 44 branches because of the protests. The situation of the city can thus push away investors as most sectors, as the financial markets are not operating normally. Most people who could be working are in the streets, protesting. According to the Citigroup economist, Adrienne Lui, investors and businesses are in an environment; that is increasingly creating higher operational risks. The movement seems disorderly to most foreigners and has thus created a negative perception of Hong Kong and mainland China. Despite the results of the protests, Chinese government has shown no sign of relenting. The Beijing’s government wants to assert power. Therefore, it decision on the issue of Hong Kong has been unshakeable. It has refused to yield to the demands of the protestors (Young, Simon, and Ghai, 2014). Instead, it has been in the forefront calling local government in the city to control the protests. The Chinese government has been confident that the authorities in the city can control the situation. Leung Chun-Ying, the Chief Executive (CE) of Hong Kong, held a press conference in September 28 where he declared that his government opposed Occupy Central movement (Wong and Gary, 2014). He also emphasized the unofficial nature of elections held by Occupy Central leaders and the plan for education of people about proposed political change. Police crackdown, government’s stand, less support from the world, lack of media coverage, and fatigue caused many protestors to leave the street at the end of the second week. However, due to the existence of the same grievances, the number of protestors has been building up. Other members of the society have joined students. Nevertheless, the government in Beijing has continued with its stand. The firm position of the government is forcing protestors to consider loyalty and exit. The voice, which is the current option chosen by the protestors, is an unsuccessful forcing them to choose between exit and loyalty. Exit The protests have re-ignited worrying memories to many people working and living in the city. In late 1980s and early 1990s, many families in Hong Kong took out citizenship of other countries (Chen, Andrew, and Chung, 2013). They were prompted by the fear of the outcomes of the handover of Hong Kong from UK to China. Many Hong Kongers left for USA, Canada, England, and Australia before 1997 (Tilly, 2007). Many people thus identify with Western values, which make them think they can become citizens of western Nations. In addition, many of the young people in Hong Kong dream of becoming citizens of the USA and United Kingdom. Others who have passports of other countries are thinking of going back to those countries as according to them, the situation in Hong Kong has deteriorated. The political situation in the city has not been the only factor, which has prompt people to leave or to want to leave Hong Kong. Daily life has changed in Hong Kong. Property prices have experienced an increase in the last decade by 145 percent. For instance, many people cannot afford to buy flats. Economic factors have thus prompted the protests just as pointed out by Andy Xie, the former Chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley. According to him, most people are concerned about food. Hong Kongers blame their difficulties on the governance of the city. People feel their living standards have reduced and that they are usually marginalized. They are, therefore, dissatisfied with the political situation worse by the introduction of vetting of Hong Kong’s leaders by the central government. The failure of the protests has caused many people to think of moving out of Hong Kong, as the government has been so adamant to effect change. The movement of Hong Kongers out of their city would affect the economy negatively. The people of the city would be brainwashed. Furthermore, the tendency would destroy the global image of Hong Kong thus destroying investors’ confidence on the city. Loyalty Due to the failure of the protests, Hong Kong’s laws and government would be more influenced by China. The Chinese government has asserted its power and that the people of Hong Kong are likely to avoid the same situation in the future as they know and understand the stand of the government. The central government would thus increase its influence on the city forcing the people who cannot afford the exit plan to adopt loyalty to the government. These people would be loyal to the political change. About 55 percent of people in Hong Kong are willing to accept the change (Huang, Flora and Wai, 2014). Even though the influence of the central government is not so welcomed, according to most these supporters of change, democracy also embraces vetting. For instance, in the USA, major parties usually pick their representatives for national elections. In 2012, the two main parties in USA chose Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney. A voter could thus vote one of the two as even if he/she likes Chris Christie or Ted Cruz, he/she could not vote for him and expect him to win. Based on this situation, people who are willing to embrace change perceive vetting by the government as a way of choosing the best candidates for citizens to choose from listed. Furthermore, the increasing movement of Chinese from the mainland and the exit of Hong Kongers from their city increase the possibility of adoption of loyalty. The increased number of people from the mainland has increased the use of the Mandarin language instead of the Cantonese. Therefore, it is now easy for culture, economic, political, and other aspects of the Chinese society to be adopted in Hong Kong. The culture of the city would be displaced quickly as most of the Hong Kongers are moving out of their city (Reiber, 2013). Democratization Hong Kong’s annual GDP growth rate has been about two percent in recent years. Immediately after the handover, the city contributed 15.6 percent to the GDP of China (Wang, Pookong, and Jia, 2014). The reduced growth rate of GDP of the city has led GDPs of each of cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, to exceed that of Hong Kong. In 2013, HK’s GDP was about 261 billion U.S dollars while for Beijing was 317 billion U.S dollars. By 2017, the GDPs of the northern municipality of Tianjin and southern cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen are expected to exceed that of Hong Kong (Li, 2014). However, despite these facts, Hong Kong is one of the major competitive cities in the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit positioned Hong Kong at the fourth-most competitive cities in the world ahead of Beijing, which was ranked 39th and Shanghai, which was listed 43rd (So and Yuang, 2014). Unlike cities in mainland China, Hong Kong has superb infrastructure, well-established legal system, and cosmopolitan culture. These characteristics make it a global financial center. Due to these features of the city, the central government cannot give it away so easily. However, the Independence for Hong Kong means a lot. In the short-term, the independence of the city would lead to the elimination of the Beijing’s influence and formation of a democratic society. In long term, it means the development of the culture of the Hong Kong’s people, which is different from that of the mainland. The Hong Kongers embrace western values. Therefore, a country with similar characteristics as western nations would be developed. The development of such a country would give the city an attractive image. Many investors would move to the city and thus change the economic situation of the city. Reform has certain implications that challenge the achievements of the objectives of the independence. It makes the city undemocratic thus creating a bad image of it. The global importance of the city would be destroyed by the reform leading to the destruction of the economy. Furthermore, the change affects in a negative manner the western values that are embraced by every Hong Konger. The continuous protests by those determined to use voice and the governments scheme to protect the global image of the city would make the government embrace democracy. Even though, Hong Kong does not contribute much to the total GDP of China as compares with other cities, it is an important gateway for China to the global market. The Chinese government cannot thus afford to lose the city through independence or destruction of its already established global image. Therefore, it will eventually give in to the continuous protests. For instance, even though, the European nations took time to allow independence of their colonies, they finally gave them. In the same manner, the Chinese government would finally give in to the demands of protestors, as it wants to protect its economy from destruction. If it did not democracy, it would lead to the destruction of its economy as the country would be seen globally as oppressive thus limiting the number of investors. Conclusion The current situation in Hong Kong is chaotic. Many people are in the streets demonstrating against a political change intended to be implemented in 2017. In the reform, the central government has created a body of 1200 individuals to be vetting candidates for Chief Executive of Hong Kong. Due to the reform, Occupy Central movement was created. This movement, which includes several protests, has failed to achieve its goal. The central government is adamant. Due to this reason, Hong Kongers are expected to choose between loyalty and exit. However, owing to the existence of determined protestors, the government would eventually embrace democratic reforms. Work Cited Chen, Piera, Andrew Stone, and Chung W. Chow. Hong Kong. Footscray, Vic: Lonely Planet, 2013. Print. Cunich, Peter. Old Hong Kong. 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