Sudan: Separation and Partitioning of the Land - Term Paper Example

SUDAN: SEPERATION AND PARTITIONING OF THE LAND Contents Contents 2 1. Introduction The July 2011 separation of South Sudan created a number of economic, political, peace and security problem. The new Republic of Southern Sudan is now facing new challenges posed by internal conflict and North Sudan. North Sudan on the other hand, is currently experiencing the impact of losing large amount of revenue from oil and tensions created by those who are against the separation of South Sudan and new economic policies of government. The separation also resulted to further armed confrontation claiming many innocent lives and displacement of thousands of people. The following sections discusses the issues resulting from South Sudan separation and the impact of land partitioning in economic and political stability, peace and security, and well-being of Sudan’s population. 2. Nature of the Problem The nature of the problem in Sudan separation is the resulting imbalances in natural resources ownership, mistrust on the sincerity of both sides, and unresolved pre-separation issues in land ownership of oil-rich territories along the North and South border. These problems are further exacerbated by the unwillingness of the South Sudan to pay oil transit fees to Northern Sudan who actually owns the pipeline in terms of territorial boundaries. 3. Background and Significance of the Problem 3.1 Background Conflict in Sudan before the separation of North and South in 2011 is generally viewed as a war between Arab Muslim North, African Animist, and Christian South . In 2005, a CPA or Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed between SAF or Sudan Armed Forces and SPLA or Sudan People’s Liberation Army resulting to the withdrawal of SAF from southern Sudan and control of the autonomous Government of South Sudan or GoSS to SPLA . In 2011, southern Sudan held a referendum seeking independence from the centralized government. Majority of south Sudanese voted for independence with about 98% of “Yes” votes indicating their discontent that according to is mainly due from economic, social neglect, and the role of Islam in the State. The majority of north Sudanese are Muslim while south of Sudan is dominated by Christian. However, the north-south Sudan separation did not resolve the long-time border conflicts in Darfur, Blue Nile, and Southern Kordofan where 2.5 million were displaced as a result of land demarcation dispute . According to , the most common trigger of violence in Sudan is access to land thus administrative boundaries and local borders clashes is further intensified by the separation of south from the north. Moreover, Sudan has a history of massive forced displacement due to oil operations in Southern Sudan that created the condition for complex and widespread land dispute. This condition was not eliminated by the north-south separation but transferred and expanded after 2011. There are several types of post-separation land disputes in Sudan that resulted to casualties over the last four years. One is the conflict between pastoralist and farmers that often result to violent confrontation in Southern Kordofan. Two is the conflict between farmers and traders who the former believed are exploiting natural resources such as timber, gum Arabic, and palm trees. Third is the unclear border demarcation between North and the Republic of Southern Sudan . Study of 130 cases of interstate conflict and violent clashes suggest that there they occur for a number of reasons, However, according to the study, the most prone to violence are those associated to secession or separation of a territory from existing state in order to create a new state . According to , past secession are often effective when populations are already separated in ethic terms at the time of secession thus the probability of conflict in Sudan is higher. Sudan is not homogeneously divided by region despite traditional belief on the existence of two sides –“Arab North” and “African South” because there are multi-ethnic regions on both sides of Sudan. Another is the fact that the separation put Sudan’s oil resources in the control of Southern Sudan and along the disputed borders. Moreover, territorial dispute is often prolonged by emotional identity-based attachment to a particular land such as the case of Abyei where citizenship and wealth sharing remains an issue because the referendum that will determine if it is south or north was delayed indefinitely. 3.2 Significance of the Problem The current situation on both Sudan and Southern Sudan is worsening mainly due to partitioning of the old Sudan and historical conflicts that were not resolved before the south became an independent Republic. In fact, both sides are now facing political, economic, and humanitarian crisis thus immediate action and solution is necessary. 4. Literature Review The result of the January 2011 referendum in South Sudan yield 98.8% vote in favor of separation thus it officially became an independent republic in July, 9, 2011 . The new republic is supported by the United Nation, African Union, European Union, United States, and other countries. However, various political and economic analysts believed that South Sudan will face a number of challenges as a result of separation from the North that include economic, government capacity, and infrastructure challenges . Similarly, after the secession of South Sudan, the remaining part of Sudan will also face challenges as a result of political shock, uncertainty, and potential conflict over land and oil. This is because North Sudan lost 21% of its population, 30% of its land, 80% of agricultural land and water resources, 75% oil reserves, and 90% of oil exports. These loses will reduced Sudan’s government revenue to around 50% . According to , Sudan already experienced the beginning of economic challenges just a few months after the separation due to large losses in oil revenue and now facing national currency devaluation, removal of subsidies on fuel, increase tax and custom fees in order to avert the crisis. In 2012, report from U.S. Congress Research Service shows that both North and South Sudan suffered oil revenue losses whiles the cost of living raised sharply. However, the impact is much greater in Sudan as it does not have any other sources of revenue to drive its economy. The worsening economic situation resulted to public protest and while Sudan’s economic growth continue to deteriorate, internal conflict and armed struggle increased. For instance, since many Sudanese blame President Bashir’s government for the loss of South Sudan, oil revenues, and current economic crisis, clashes between government and protesters result to more violence . Since there were still unresolved issues concerning the border areas, border clashes remain a big problem in Sudan. This border demarcation conflict according to is due to uncertainties in the exact demarcation between North and South Sudan, land rights, fundamental differences between locals of Abyei, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile, For instance, a referendum was scheduled to commence before the 2011 separation to determine whether Abyei will be part of the North or South but it did not take place.. Moreover, since Abyei is an oil-rich territory, the conflict that was carried out after the separation result to greater tension and armed confrontation. Along with Abyei, the other two contested territories are also experiencing intense fighting and due to cross-border raids and South Sudan’s occupation of Heglig, North Sudan declared war against the South on April 19, 2012. Figure 1 Map showing major areas of conflict and location of oi-rich territories As shown above, Heiglig is in critical situation as it is located in the area were the boundary between north and south Sudan is ill-defined . Moreover, the South after separation according to , is still resentful and bitter over the North’s refusal to hold a referendum regarding the contested border region of Abyie and the recent move of the North to impose transit fees for oil being ship from the South to the northern Port of Sudan terminal. This is the reason why South Sudan stopped shipping oil in April 2012 despite evident loss of oil revenue from sales. The newly formed Republic of Southern Sudan is facing the impact of interlocking and tribal divisions due to land, water, and pasture access to the country’s state-building efforts. For instance, the conflict in Jonglei between Lou Nuer and Murle tribes is intensified after the separation resulting to the death of around 3,000 and displacement of over a thousand people . This situation is also true in the north or the Republic of Sudan as aside from the growing conflict with the South it is confronting a host of internal conflict such as those in Darfur, Eastern Province, and public protest in Khartoum over rising prices of food, protracted water cuts, and others . 5. Main Issues and Anticipated Impact and Consequences of Issues 5.1 Control of Oil Fields :”Oil is at the base of the sporadic bouts of armed conflicts and fear of future instability in Sudan” . The division of Sudan in 2011 resulted to more problems on both North and South as majority of oil field went under the control of Southern Sudan while part of the pipeline for exporting oil is under North Sudan’s control. Moreover, although there was a decision from The Hague in 2009 defining the boundaries of Abyei (near the border of North and South Sudan) and a referendum, the issue over this oil rich territory along with Blue Nile and South Kordofan is still unresolved therefore a major source of armed conflict . Southern Sudan stopped shipping oil through the pipeline passing North Sudan territory in early 2012 due to dispute over oil transit fees being imposed by North government thus more revenue losses from oil on both sides.. The oil field and revenue sharing issue are further exacerbated by inter-communal conflict and renewed war over Abyei, and internal conflicts between ethnic groups in the south and the Nuba Mountain and Darfur conflict in the North . Moreover, discontented armed and non-armed political factions in the South who wanted to settle old disputes with the North is significantly slowing down peace building effort and therefore more future economic losses and widespread poverty can be expected . 5.2 Economic Crisis Oil is the backbone of Sudan economy before the 2011 secession thus it has political and economic consequences. The loss of oil revenues brought North Sudan on the edge of economic breakdown just after the separation. This economic decline is further worsen by the state’s need to increase military expenditure with funds coming from half of its oil production n. As shown in the figure below, Sudan’s share in total oil revenue fell from $4.4 billion to $1.9 in 2012 while foreign investment decreased from $6.1 billion to $5.6 in 2012. Its surplus of US$ 2.7 billion prior to the July 2011 separation turned to into a large deficit of US$1.2 billion due to loss of oil exports during October-December of 2011 Moreover, the Sudanese pound depreciated by around 50 percent while inflation continue to accelerate from January to April of 2012 at 28.6 due to high food prices and increasing import cost of basic foods. Figure 2 - Inflation, Food Prices, and Market Exchange Rate in Pre and Post-Separation in Sudan Figure 3 Increasing Food Prices These figures suggest that North Sudan is the most affected by the separation and its economy will further deteriorate if South continue to cease exporting oil through North territory . In Southern Sudan, the economic problem is further increased by the influx of refugees and returnees from the North and resource, political, inter-communal driven clashes. Figure 4 Funding received by South Sudan in 2013 . 5.3 Peace and Security Due to inter-communal, resources, and politically driven clashes, over 2,600 people were killed in Southern Sudan after the-separation, this is because the new republic lacks the capacity to police and enforce the law to its population. These incidents occurred along with the border conflict and violent occupation of Abyei territory and fierce fighting between SAF and SPAL that resulted to hundreds of people killed and displaced . Figure 5 - Southern Sudan Crisis Map The current peace and security crisis according to, is brought about by the enduring tensions and mistrust among South Sudanese leaders and ethnic groups that started long before the Sudan’s 1983 Civil War. In fact, the southern rebel group SPLM and SPLA that are competing for power and mobilized supporters along ethnic lines made it difficult for the south to bid for self-determination in the 1990s,. In USAID report for 2013, clashes in Juba between factions within government of South Sudan continue while five of the South Sudan’s 10 states are still experiencing armed violence. The situation Akobo, Bor, Bentiu, and Yida is deteriorating and clashes in Unity State and in other location displace 62,000 people since December 15, 2013 . The 2013 report reveal that: The security situation in South Sudan “remains tense and unpredictable” . Conditions have worsened in Jonglei State, with violence increasing in Bor, Gumuruk, and Likuangole . The security situation in Juba remains relatively calm after clashes while an estimated 20,000 people fled UNMISS Majority of those who fled are fearful returning as the risk remains high . 5.4 Agricultural Land and Water for Farming Agriculture is considered Sudan’s lifeline before the discovery of oil but its was neglected due to dependence on food imports and increasing revenues from oil exports. The average annual growth rate of the agricultural sector is about 3.6% between 2000 and 2008 which is lower than 10.8% before the oil discovery. After the separation and loss of oil revenue for the North the lack of agricultural income made it very difficult for Sudan to maintain its economy.. Moreover, since the secession of South Sudan led to political shock, uncertainties, and further conflict, the economy will further deteriorate in the North due to the loss of around 80% of agricultural land and water resources . In 2012, North Sudan launched an Agricultural Revitalization Plan in the hope to attract strategic foreign investors but irrigation and transportation may be difficult due to current situation particularly when the area in question is in disputed land . In summary, the common anticipated impact and consequences of the issues mentioned earlier is economic and humanitarian crisis that will further increase poverty and violation of human rights. In fact, both North and South are now receiving humanitarian aids and experiencing the negative consequences of separation. For instance, the issue about oil is not simply an economic issue but land ownership and political ambitions because the biggest sources of oil are located in the disputed border of North and South. Moreover, ethic communities caught, killed, and displaced in these classes suffers both poverty and atrocities performed by their own government. Moreover, since both sides need to secure their claims over the disputed oil fields, majority of their revenues will likely go to military expenditures. Taxes will increase while the economy deteriorate further due to monetary depreciation, lack of foreign investment due to conflict, and further loss of precious lives in both sides of Sudan.. 6. Analysis of the Data By analysis, the data presented in Section 5 suggest that North Sudan and South Sudan are still struggling to recover from the impact and negative consequences of separation and unresolved land ownership issues in their border. As shown in Figure 2, Sudan’s economy was more stable before than after the separation, the inflation rate for instance is almost double of the 2009 rate suggesting further economic deterioration and poverty among the poor. Similarly, the impact of increasing food prices will make more difficult to Sudanese to make ends meet. The government on the other hand has no choice but to increase taxes, fees, and derive revenue from other sources due to the need for military funding and support for nation building in the case of South Sudan. Analysis of data from different sources presented in Section 5 including those reported by USAID suggests that peace and security in Sudan is still a great concern. There are different reasons provided but it all boils down to political, cultural, and economic differences that are common to multi-ethnic population. For instance, inter-communal fighting in South of Sudan is mainly due to dispute over ancestral land while the fighting in Abyei and nearby territory along the border is for economic and political gains. The use of ethnic communities’ sentiments and grievances by different rebel groups makes matters worse and may lead to another civil war if not resolved in the soonest possible time. Note that in clashes in the USAID 2013 report occurred in small towns indicating the problem is getting deeper, widespread, and more intense, These data suggest that the separation between North and South Sudan intensify the conflict rather than solving the long enduring disagreement between the North African Muslim and Christian dominated south. Moreover, the separation further worsens the plight of the poor and reduced the opportunities for growth and prosperity provided by oil. It rapidly deteriorates North Sudan’s economy due to significant losses in agricultural land and refusal of Southern Sudan to generate oil and pay transit fees to North Sudan government. However, the most severe impact of separation is the ceaseless disregard to human life, the senseless killings of the innocent, and sufferings of those that were displaced. 7. Conclusion This study conclude that the separation of Sudan worsen the situation of both North and South in terms of peace, economy, and political stability. The separation also renewed old sentiments and grievances due to intensified atrocities in the contested border. Data from literature review suggest that the situation in terms of economy, political, ethnicity, and security is worsening particularly in the newly formed Republic of Southern Sudan. The root causes of continues instability include unresolved issues in land ownership along the border, sharing of oil revenue, political, cultural and ethnic differences, mistrust on both sides of Sudan, and the unwillingness of political leaders to concede. For this reason, this study finds the conflict created by the separation nearly impossible to resolve for as long as political leadership in North and South Sudan maintain their political agenda and personal ambitions. 8. Recommendations The recommendation of this study for North and South to sit down and settle issues associated with ownership of lands near the North and South border. The North in particular should not delay the referendum in Abyei ownership further while South Sudan, considering the well-being of fellow Sudanese in the North, re-start oil production and let North Sudan take some fees for their pipeline. Attaining peace, growth, and prosperity is not necessarily democracy because sincerity, mutual understanding and cooperation regardless of faith and ideology can do the same. This study cannot cover aspects of the Sudan separation and land partitioning issues thus recommending deep exploration of the Sudan’s separation through field work or comprehensive examination of recent data regarding economy political development in both North and South Sudan, 9. References Akongdit, A. A. O. (2013). Impact of Political Stability on Economic Development:Case of South Sudan, AuthorHouse Blanchard, L. 2012. Sudan and South Sudan: Current Issues for Congress and U.S. Policy. Bortolsmann, S. 2012. Sudan Country Report. Chan, S. (2002). Liberalism, Democracy and Development, Cambridge University Press Curtis, D., Dzinesa, G. A. & Adebajo, A. (2012). Peacebuilding, Power, and Politics in Africa, Ohio University Press Dagne, T. (2012). 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