Future World Powers: China, India, and the Middle East - Literature review Example

 Future World Powers: China, India, and the Middle East Traditional ideas of global dominance and world power frequently involve Western nations. Specifically, the United States, Russia, and Europe come to mind when people think of those nations and groups of nations which have the most political clout on a global scale. However, this way of thinking is rooted in the past. In the next twenty years, the world is likely to see a huge shift in the players on the global scene, and that shift is likely to move away from Western powers towards traditionally underrepresented nations and areas. In particular, China, with its increasing military and economic power, India, with its widespread 'soft power,' and the largely Islamic countries in the Middle East, revitalized in the afterglow of the Arab Spring movements, all stand to emerge as powerful leaders in their respective areas, both on a regional and global level. In the West, there is an idea that is prevalent today that Western nations such as the United States and those which make up Europe are the leaders of a natural order. This way of thinking views that the policies of those nations “aim to uphold stability and international norms” in an otherwise unruly world (Roy 4). In other words, the West sees itself acting as a sort of global police force for democracy and the good of all people everywhere. Regardless of the truthfulness of this statement, it is clear that nations elsewhere disagree that it is a necessary or valid role for the West to play. More importantly for how things will look in the future, there is a good deal of uncertainty over whether this influence will continue. Christopher Layne points out that as far ago as 2009, it was doubtful that the United States in particular was still “economically” the most important player in the world order, and specifically that it is looking more and more to China, India, and other “emerging market states” to play that role (170). Although Layne is not convinced that all Western influence has vanished, calling it “a topic of contention” (172), it is still true that Western influence is waning due to these shifting socioeconomic and political factors. Three nations and regions in particular which are set to become more dominant than they are now are China, India, and the Middle East. The first of these nations that stands to take a very big role in this new world order is China, which as Denny Roy points out, “could achieve a reasonable amount of security and prosperity playing within the current international rules,” and that in reality, China is more likely to rewrite the international rules, using “its expanding economic, military, and diplomatic influence to” increase its prosperity even further (Roy 1). While in many cases these influences would see it at odds with the way things are today, such as differences in opinion on democracy, it is important to note that China's view of itself is as “the rightful leader of the region,” as well as “a benevolent, principled great power that abhors exploitation and bullying” (Roy 2). In other words, despite the view from the outside being that China is intent only on “going to war against one or more of its neighbors” (Roy 4), that is not necessarily the truth of the matter. One way of understanding what China seems to intend to achieve with its increasing power is that instead of just trying to overrule everybody who disagrees with them, China is only trying to create an environment that lets it “create a friendly international environment” (Ding 194) in which to achieve its goals. China views this as creating a “harmonious world,” (Ding 195), in essence suggesting that it too wants global peace, only a global peace created by itself instead of by the US and other Western powers, which obviously would place more importance on peace for them than for others. It is also worth pointing out that China's idea of harmony dates back to ancient times, and that Confucian ideals of harmony as more important than “coercive power” have led to the way China does politics today being viewed as somehow dangerous by the West (Ding 196). It is also true that China, as well as other rising powers, have reached out to “many developing countries, especially those alienated by the American foreign policies or marginalized by the existing international system,” trying to help them also raise themselves up (Ding 198). While this is no doubt viewed with suspicion in countries in the West, who try to find danger in everything China does, it is also possible to understand it as a Confucian gesture of leading by example. In time, this policy will no doubt lead to an even further increase of China's power, as it will have more places to export its good and more trading partners, and it will have more nations around the world who view it favorably. On a regional scale, China's “soft power-based foreign policies of “making good friends with neighboring countries and maintaining harmony with them” have been well received," suggesting that China has already gained a lot of traction which can help it push into the global political scene (Ding 204). In fact, China has been so successful that “Asian countries today ... actively engage Beijing in regional cooperation” (Ding 205), pointing the way to a stronger Asia in general as well as just a stronger China. This stronger Asia will clearly shift the focus away from the West, which often seems to react as shown by Roy's article in a defensive manner that puts it into place as the antagonist of Asia. Since the West has always had power it stands to reason that it does not want Asia to get that power. In any case, while there are some problems with China's approach, such as its apparent "friendship with dictators in the Third World," which mean that China needs to pay more attention to foreign policy (Ding 211), it should be clear that it is poised to become a major world power in the future, with all the privilege, problems, and social pressure that entails. Another power contributing to the rise of Asia on the global scale is India. While India does not appear to be poised to reap the rewards of global power as much as neighboring China, it is nonetheless shaping up to have much more of an impact in the next twenty years than it has in recent history. As Jacques Hymans points out, "India's policy of liberalization has greatly enhanced its power, and its policy of nuclearization has greatly enhanced its military power" (234). More importantly than either of these two types of power, though, are the far-reaching impacts of what is known as India's "soft power," to the extent that it may even have an advantage over China in terms of what it can accomplish on the global scale because of its "liberal democratic regime type" (Hymans, 234). In other words, because India is more flexible and more in tune with its people's needs than the more strict China, which thinks mostly of its image and reach as shown above, India may well stand to be the one that ends up being more powerful (Hymans, 234). Although soft power has already been mentioned above, it is useful to fully describe it in order to understand the influence it can have on nations around the world, and why it may turn out to be more powerful. Joseph Nye defines the term to mean that a nation tends to "adopt an attitude of international openness, respect for rules, and a preference for absolute gains, instead of national isolationism" (Hymans, 235). It is easy to see the contrast here between India and China, the last of which is not particularly interested in playing by international rules. Historically, of course, India has not been willing to play by these rules either, and often engaged in practices that the West viewed with suspicion, like the ritual burning of widows along with their dead husbands (Hyman, 239). However, with the rise of Gandhi and the move of India into its modern stage of being a liberal democracy (Hyman, 241) had a huge effect on its worldwide reach which will only increase with time. Today and moving into the future, regardless, India has followed a strategy of "ris[ing] in the world through full and unembarrassed participation in the American world order" (Hyman, 252). In addition to playing by the book, and earning a place on the global stage that way, India has also pushed its culture and political clout at the same time. The classic idea of soft power is "a country's contributions to contemporary global culture," (Hyman, 252) and it is unarguable that Indian cuisine and the popularity of Bollywood musicals are unmatched today around the world. This popular culture is not the only thing, however, that makes India so powerful and poised to be even more powerful in the future. India is often seen by the West as a "mature" and "responsible" regional power, with its nuclear bombs enabling it to stabilize the region against what the West perceives as threats (Hyman, 254). A third part of why India is so well-received by the West is that it also has somewhat of an image as a technically competent driver of innovation. While in the recent past it has been viewed as just a "charity case," today and moving into the future, India has an image as an "Asian Tiger" in terms of its economic power and the many, many people it have who are competent and effective innovators in information technology (Hyman, 255). As can be seen by all of the above, India is already having a big effect on how business and culture work the world over, and the effect is only likely to increase in the future. Outside of Asia, the mostly Islamic nations of the Middle East are the third rising power. Even more so than with China, the West has a long history of fear when it comes to the Middle East, what with all the wars and religious differences that are obvious to anybody alive today and do not even need mentioning. However, with the recent "Arab Spring" kind of revolutions that have taken place in a number of Arabic countries in this region, the Middle East, much like China and India, is likely to play much more of a role in global politics and culture than it has in the recent past. Saudi Arabia, which interestingly enough was not a place where this uprising happened at all, nonetheless can serve as a fascinating potential model for other nations in the region. This is because, unlike most of those other nations, Saudi Arabia is unique in showing "a country with a system of government derived from purely native models ... not by colonial bureaucrats in London or Paris" (Freeman, 30). As other nations in the region, which have historically been overtaken by Western powers, move more assertively towards their own independence, we could well see more similar approaches by them. Indeed, unlike the stereotype of Middle Eastern nations being heavily religious, those affected by the Arab Spring "have avoided religious, class, or foreign-policy agendas," instead focusing on "people seeking greater liberty in their own societies under governments that reflect their will" (Freeman, 33). All in all, with this greater liberty combined with the energy resources that are native to the area, "Arab countries will achieve ... greater self-reliance and autonomy in managing their affairs," enabling their "central role in the global economy" to have an even bigger impact (Freeman, 36). In conclusion, it is clear from the quoted research and political analyses that China, India, and the Middle East are all regions of the world which will become more and more powerful in the next twenty years. While this does not mean those regions are free of troubles, or that they are one hundred percent perfect, it seems inarguable that the world's spotlight will move to focus on them. This may seem to be a bad thing for the West, which has been traditionally dominant, but in fact it simply means that the world will be different, not worse. In fact, as seen above, there is reason to believe that what those in the West see as a bad thing may not be that way. China's "harmonious world," India's steady increase in "soft power" by its culture and popular culture, and the intellectual and liberalizing influence of the Arab Spring in the Middle East may just make the world a better place overall. But even if this is still a matter for debate, it is more or less settled that in twenty years' time they will be the ones viewed as most important around the world, and the ones who have the biggest impact in terms of culture, military and political power, and economic realities. Works Cited Ding, Sheng. "To Build a "Harmonious World": China's Soft Power Wielding in the Global South." Journal of Chinese Political Science 13.2 (2008): 193-213. Print. Freeman, Chas. "The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications." Middle East Policy 18.2 (2011): 29-36. Hymans, Jacques. "India's Soft Power and Vulnerability." India Review 8.3 (2009): 234-265. Print. Layne, Christopher. “The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality?”International Security 34.1 (2009): 147-172. Print. Roy, Denny. "More Security for Rising China, Less for Others?" Analysis from the East-West Center 106 (2013): 1-8. Web. April 14 2015. Read More