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Economics - Essay Example

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In their main reference scenario, the IEA forecasts that OECD demand has already peaked - it never recovers the levels seen before the…
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Economics
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Economics

Download file to see previous pages... Since they still see strong demand growth from China and other developing nations, OECD takes the hit:
Unfortunately the IEA does not present this oil situation in a figure, however the one below for total primary energy demand gives us a good impression. China, India and the rest of the non-OECD world keep growing their consumption (IEA forecast, not mine!), while OECD is all but flatlining.
For oil, the situation is worse. OECD share of available oil is constrained so much that it declines. The details for primary oil demand alone are in Table 1.3. The peak for OECD demand was in the period 2000-2008 and declines by 0.3% per year to 2030.
Its also significant that in their report they say Non-OPEC oil supply declines from 2010. So all those arguments about technology, increasing recovery, a new Middle East in the Arctic... all amount to nothing at least in the entire Non-OPEC part of the world where all those clever western oil companies do their business.
All the peak oil analysis that youve read here still suggests that the IEAs forecast is too optimistic, for both OPEC and Non-OPEC parts of the world. And the IEA whistleblower also claims that their forecasts are inflated. But a peak is still a peak, and the IEA now says that OECD oil demand is in decline and will not recover the levels prior to the financial crisis.
This seems to me like a dramatic statement for the IEA to make. This official forecast from the agency representing OECD nations, now conflicts with just about every one of its individual members own forecasts (and that of just about every private enterprise). To convince decision makers of the inevitable oil decline facing us, we no longer need to refer to the online analysis by peak oil bloggers. You can simply tell your president, chief, boss and your neighbour: The IEA says our oil consumption is going down, what are you going to do about it?
As a footnote, it appears that the IEA is in good company with their updated forecast. ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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