Regional Assessment of the Caucasus Region I and Regional Strategic Concept II - Coursework Example

REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF THE CAUCASUS REGION I & REGIONAL STRATEGIC CONCEPT II: A Two-Part Essay This is a report on a simulation of war, or possibility of war, in 2017. The first half of the essay concerns the assessment of the situation in the Caucasus through several steps and different procedures. The second essay concerns the strategic concept needed to put in place a defined mission of diplomatic, information, military and economic (DIME) structures. Regional Assessment The purpose of the regional assessment is to fully understand and outline the issues at stake within all the countries contained in the Caucasus region. Six countries account for the Caucasus region: Southern Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Armenia and Iran. Geographically, Russia, at its southern point, is next to the Caspian Sea on one side, and the Black Sea on the other, with Georgia and Azerbaijan splitting the southern border of Russia. Azerbaijan is flanked by the Caspian Sea while Georgia is next to the Black Sea. Iran is south of Azerbaijan on the edge of the Caspian Sea, while Turkey is south of Georgia, with its coastline on the Black Sea. Tiny Armenia is land-locked in the middle of the meeting points for all four countries: Georgia and Azerbaijan to the north, and Turkey and Iran to the South. Much of what needs to be accomplished is directly dependent on the geographic locations of these countries to each other. Mission The mission is to support areas where indigenous people are being terrorized by outside forces and to provide life-sustaining resources as well as United Nations forces to control any attacks by outside forces. Specific issues must be addressed where the quality of life has degraded to such a point that loss of life is extreme, due to the conditions from external forces. Overview As of today, December 1, 2016, we are facing an ever-increasing volatile situation surrounding the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which was completed in 2005. The BTC pipeline runs from Baku, Azerbaijan to Tbilisi, Georgia and then to Ceyhan, Turkey. The West is looking at extending the pipeline structure from the eastern coastline of the Caspian Sea, from the countries of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan specifically, to the BTC pipeline now currently in place. Issues The current issues we have are the pockets of instability in the region between warring factions, particularly in Azerbaijan, where the Southern Azeri People’s Army (SAPA) is causing disruption against the country’s military. The current leadership, run by the Southern Azeri Peoples Party (SAPP), requested help from the United States and we have been making incursions into volatile parts by implementing defensive strategies. Interests, Objectives, and Activities Our interests in this area directly tie in with the pipeline and its continued viability for the peoples in the Caucasus, as well as protecting our own financial investments. Our activities in the area include building up assistance with the refugee and displaced persons camps, increasing food and medical, and the establishment of camp schools for the children for continued education. The objective is to provide stability to the region to ensure a continued successful operation with the pipeline and to begin building the second part of the project from the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. Conditions must be stable and secure in the area before we can commence this work. Assumptions We must look at how any military presence will be viewed in any part of these countries, especially where the United States is concerned. United Nations forces would be a better option, with the majority of the forces coming from European countries rather than the United States. As part of our proposals to the U.N., we must show how the pipeline will extensively benefit so many more countries than currently seen right now. Regional Analysis (by country) Here is what we face, issue-wise, with each country: Armenia A shortage of energy, even with a hydroelectric dam built on Lake Seven, has seriously reduced the lake level in the course of providing energy to its people. Huge forests were subsequently cut down to provide more energy, but that left the soil in an erosion state, causing drought in the country. What rain has fallen, has leached DDT into the soil, tainting other water supplies and now, leaving the country in a full-blown environmental crisis. Azerbaijan Azerbaijan is in a prime situation, having received help from the Western powers, and currently tends to be the most secure country in the area. Its dispute with Armenia, however, over Nagorno-Karabakh, causes friction and resentment in the area, which if not properly handled and solved, could blow up into a much bigger issue. Georgia Georgia, while attempting to work closely with NATO and head towards European Union membership, is under heavy pressure from Russia to drop these ties, using diplomatic pressure and occasional military incursions. Currently, Georgia maintains an uneasy peace – for now. Iran Several years back, a number of provinces in southwest Iran broke away from its rule and formed the Republic of Luristan and there are occasional disputes between the two. While Iran appears to longer be enriching its for a potential nuclear program, there is still the means to pick this back up at any moment. In the meantime, Iran has fortified and built up its small arms, munitions stash, tanks, missiles, small coastal vessels and stealth reconnaissance aircraft. Iran is still seen as a potential threat in the area, due to its religious and governmental policies with the rest of the world. Turkey Turkey and Armenia remain at odds over the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K). Relations in recent years have warmed to some degree except where the N-K is concerned. Turkey has been denied fly-over rights through Armenia whenever it has needed to support Azerbaijan over small military incursions. Russia Over the last few years, Russia has maintained a maritime blockade in the Caspian Sea, north of 42 degrees latitude, while expanding its oil mining operations in that area. Russia also signed agreements with Armenia and Georgia to provide both with natural gas below market value. However, in 2009, Russia chose to raise the prices and has also constructed a pipeline through the Astrakhan port facility. Russia is maintaining a certain amount of protectionism for its holdings in the north section of the Caspian Sea, which causes problems elsewhere. Russia is also not happy with the idea of a democratic Azerbaijan on its borders but is also unlikely to oppose any western powers (U.N. only) stepping in to protect the country from an incursion by Ahurastan (formerly South Azerbaijan). There are many issues to be considered regarding Russia and any of its satellite countries where Western troop movements are concerned. What is clear is that the Caucasus conglomeration sits on a very strategic trade route connecting Russia, Europe and South Asia. It has been important to keep this area safe and to provide economic assistance to help develop these countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union as the U.S.S.R. (Central Asia, 2011) NATO has already been a large presence in the area to secure the Caucasus from being overrun by larger and stronger nations to take advantage of this strategic route (Bronson, ) Regional Strategic Concept Situational Analysis for One Option: A Systemic Approach IMPUTS Strategic Setting: Armenia Armenia has received assistance in the past from the United States in agricultural technology and expansions. Armenia currently needs a solution to its water and drought problem . It also needs a review of the nuclear plant at Metsamor to see if there is any functional damage and, if needed, to assist Armenia in getting it repaired. Repairing Armenia’s need for energy and water supply would go a long way towards its self-sufficient reliance on its own natural resources. Current Events: Economic Instability and Outside Pressures With economic instability rampant, due to lack of energy and water resources, Armenia is primed for submitting to the ‘strongest bidder.’ Those countries who can gain the most from the geographical advantage of Armenia’s central location, can dangle the fish in front until Armenia collapses to repeated pressures. Nation Guidance: Oversight by NATO NATO will be advised as to how to bring about the security needed for this area and to bring in enough manpower, as determined through intelligence reports, to enforce peaceful, secure measures. Peacetime Planning: Oversight by NATO and Other International Groups NATO and other World Organizations can work out the needed programs to help with development in Armenia and its surrounding neighbors through building of more schools, including universities, medical schools and hospitals, and provide development in the sciences. PROCESS Problem Definition Careful analysis must be made by observers in the field through conducting interviews and surveys to see where holes or gaps need to be filled. Information Gathering Aside from the information gathering from the people directly, the Department of Defense (DoD), along with its partners, DNRO, DDI, and other branches of security and defense, will be responsible for extensive intelligence gathering and the uses of overhead reconnaissance through satellites and reconnaissance airplanes. There will need to be the preliminary fact finding sorties and scouting of the lands for mapping and observation and, finally, a procedure of interaction between internal personnel and the NATO personnel in order to make on-the-spot decisions in cases of emergency. Option Development, Analysis, Comparison With all fact finding information and research pulled together for a complete overview of the land, the economic status of each city and its people, and the status of industry throughout the land, final plans can be made for what to do first and the appropriate chain of command put in place for the strategy to work efficiently. Decisions Decisions can only be made, once the intelligence and research is in, as to where to start first in building security and then developing the necessities needed for the population to stand back on its feet again without the threats from outside. Along with this process, there should also be a system of diplomatic reaching out to other surrounding countries to bring them into the benefits of stabilization in the area and working together so that each benefits from the best parts of any nation in the Caucasus. Those with the most to offer the success of the strategy will be approached first for in-depth consultations. Others will be approached on a more basic level until the first most important steps towards mission fulfillment have been met. PRODUCTS Synthesis This is the final step in the strategic concept where the following procedures have been laid in place for final implementation. The mission defines the end state, or result of the approach; an overview which has listed all issues and probabilities in the area; interests and activities define actions on a more local level; assumptions are also based on regional analysis; an overview and evaluation of different options is laid in place in case changes must be made, due to unforeseen events; and finally, the full recommendation for the first line of defense and implementation of the mission. With a concrete strategy and alternative procedures outlined securely, success to the mission is fairly certain to happen. References The Road to War Up to 2017, AY 10-11 Department of Defense. Directive. (6/28/2011) National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). No. 5105.23. http://www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/pdf/510523p.pdf Wilcox, M. R., and Menning, B. W. Guide to Regional Strategic Concept Development. Central Asia and the Caucasus 1540: Regional Overview (1/1/2011) http://www.nti.org/analysis/reports/central-asia-and-caucasus-1540-reporting/ Bronson, R. NATO’s Expanding Presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Ch. 9. Downloaded from the Internet 3/3/2012 kms2.isn.ethz.ch/.../Files/.../NATO_After_Enlargement_09.pdf Read More