Contrasting Process and Outcomes of Groups and Individual Judgment - Annotated Bibliography Example

Summary Name: Institution: Article (Argote et al, 1990). The Base-Rate fallacy: Contrasting Process and Outcomes of groups and individual Judgment August 2, 2015 This article provides a comparison between the use of base-rate and individuating information by individuals and groups. Individuals have the ability to make category judgments through a determination of the degree to which an object is representative of a category. Judgment by representatives often leads to biases and less sensitivity to prior probabilities or base rates. This is what constitutes the base rate fallacy. Judgments by groups contain limited bias compare to those done by individuals. This is because groups are in possession of more resources and they can cancel the error made by individuals this makes it a requirement for groups to be more sensitive to the base rate compared to individuals. Base rate fallacy is more likely to occur in organizational management. Organizations that are highly performing in their areas of expertise are often those that are managed by executives whose decision are made by a group. This means that the management through its corporate governance strategy engages in a consultative discourse to ensure that employees and other stakeholders are involved indirectly in the decision making process. The situation is however different in an organization where the manager makes all the decisions without consulting anyone. This limits the ability of the organization to grow as most of the stakeholders will feel rejected and this makes it relatively difficult to the said persons to embrace the decisions and own ideas in ways that will ensure progress for the organization and the stakeholders. Article (Arkes & Ayton, 1999): The Sunk Cost and Concorde Effects: Are Humans less rational Than Lower Animals? August 2, 2015 The sunken cost effect represents a maladaptive economic attribute often manifested in greater tendency of continuing an endeavor once an investment of money, time ort effort has been made. The main contributor of the sunken cost effect is the desire by people not to appear as wasteful. An individual would consider pursing a course in which he or she has invested major resources compared to that which has attracted limited resources in term of investment. Overgeneralization has been considered as the leading case of the sunk cost effect. This is because it is often manifested in the failure by the participants to note cost-benefit considerations. The reason why humans more than the other lower animals are more likely to fall prey to the sunk cost effect is attributable to their ability to abide by abstract and rational laws. My brother is a football fan and he bets on matches. one way by which he operates according to the sunk cost effect is that he is always willing to let go of a bet attracting limited financial resources but actively pursues one in which he invested more money. The sunken cost effect can also occur among parents while assessing the performance of their children. When a parent has two children studying in different schools, he or she tends to concentrate on the performance of the child whose school is relatively expensive. This does not mean that the parent cares less for the child whose school is cheaper but it means that the parent wants to be relatively less wasteful by ensuring that he or she receives value for the money invested. Article (Biyalogorsk, 2008): Stuck in the Past: Why Managers Persist with New Product failures August 2, 2015 Managers in the marketing department have the responsibility of making decisions on new products even in situations where they may be in possession of limited information concerning the subject matter. It is possible to argue that in such situations it is most probable that the management will exercise escalation bias during the process of introducing or managing a new product. During the process of developing a new product it is often important to involve the management at the initial stages. Initial decision making is therefore an essential component in the explanation of escalation behavior. This is however unnecessary in the explanation of the possibility that the marketing managers will choose the path of escalation bias. The inappropriate use of initial positive beliefs coupled by the availability of new negative information may lead the management into making irrational decisions. Understanding the prevailing market conditions may contribute to the minimization of unwarranted decisions in new product management. It is possible for this situation to be evidenced in the teaching profession. This is most especially in the determination of the content of a curriculum. The ability or the inability of the teaching fraternity to develop effective curriculum that are in accordance with the prevailing technological, social, economic and political situation is highly dependent on the level of involvement of different stakeholders. Insufficient information concerning the best possible approach to be used in developing the curriculum may lead to impractical and redundant content being included as part of school work. Article- (Durand, 2003): The Role of Organizational Illusion of control and Organizational Attention August 2, 2015 Forecasting is considered as one way by which organizations have been able to develop workable strategies that will help in boosting its performance. Despite the positive effects of forecasting it is possible for companies to overinvest with the aim of gaining profits but they end up with massive losses. The ability and the capacity of an organization to forecast are distinctive of its level of competence. Organizational illusion and control emerge from these forecasts hence influencing the level of bias and the magnitude of the errors that an organization can commit in terms of estimates. Exponential levels of organizational illusion in terms of control often increase the level of positive forecast bias. When this is perceived in relation to organizational attention, it is possible to argue that the higher the relative investment in market information the higher the possibility of the reduction of positive forecast bias and the degree of errors committed in terms of estimate Performance illusion and student attention are often essential in the development of the best strategies that learning institutions can develop to ensure that their students improve in terms of their performance. For this success to be realized it is the responsibility of the management in a learning institution to consider additional investments in its teachers and the students. This increases both negative forecast bias and the magnitude of errors hence improve on the employees to consider personal efforts which translates to institutional success. Learning institutions that underestimate the effect of favorable changes often experience the difficulty of maintaining the demands of the prevailing learning conditions hence losing their competitive edge. Article- (Gilbey & Hill, 2012): Confirmation Bias in General Aviation Lost Procedures August 2, 2015 One of the experiences that pilots face in their aviation career is the possibility of getting lost in the airspace. Their reactions when they undergo such experiences of much essence since it demonstrates their ability to gain control of the situation of lose control. Different individuals, including pilots when asked to establish their location after discovering that they were lost, tend to apply the confirmatory instead of the disconfirmatory strategy. Such a strategy provides a false positive indication which increases the likelihood that the result of such a choice is unsafe. Student pilots unlike their orienteers often felt the need to provide incorrect responses using the confirmatory strategy especially when under pressure. The situation was different from their orienteers who even when they were lost, chose to felt high levels of calmness and the need to use the disconfirmatory response strategy. Their view, being sincere, increases the possibility that the outcome would be safe. Children unlike the adult population have the tendency of acting under great pressure to provide information especially when they realize that their actions are not in accordance with the expected behavior. It is possible for such children, while applying the confirmatory strategy to provide false responses and this may limit the ability of a parent to provide sufficint help for the child. The situation is different among the adult population, whose experiences in life require then to communicate through the disconfirmatory response as a way of increase the possibility of a safe outcome. Article- (Handgraaf et al, 2008): Less power or Powerless? Egocentric Empathy Gaps and the Irony of Having Little versus No Power in Social Decision Making August 2, 2015 All kinds of relationships are defined by power. It is possible for those who are assumed to be powerful in any relationship to be generous and be completely powerless to ensure that both parties in the relationship benefit. There is often power difference in teh association between the allocator and the recipient. It is common for the allocator to lower his or her offer to the recipient when the difference in power favors the former. The offer increases when the recipient exercises no power. These are situations where the feelings of social responsibility emerge. Those in powerful positions often expect better outcomes. This can however be addressed those in power choose to exercised empathy as part of their strategy to improve their relationships. Through such a strategy it will be easier for the less powerful to feel the need of engaging in different social responsibility initiatives. The relationship between spouses is considered as one characterized by the need to exercise power and legitimate authority over the other person. For such a relationship to be considered mutual, it is the responsibility of both the powerful and the powerless individuals to understand the expectation of the relationship and the role of power in improving the possibility that the intended objectives will be realized. Partners in the relationship when confronted with completely powerless or empathetic power often feel motivated to be part of the relationship especially in situations where every part operates in ways that fulfill his or her part of the relationship. Article (Hwang & Jeong, 2012) - Public Response to Aviation Accidents: The role of Exemplification and Attributions August 2, 2015 The media through the journalists play an important role in influencing public perception on aviation accidents. This is because through the use of different exemplars and attributions, there is a high likelihood that the area of focus that journalists choose while reporting on the possible cause of an airplane accident may affect the future thoughts on such accidents. Mechanical failure and pilot error comprise some of the exemplars that often used as internal causes while bad weather constitutes a large percentage of the external causes. Responsibility judgment resulting from internal attribution is often an indirect effect of the resulting punitive opinions of these accidents. Furthermore, the exemplification effects are often manifesting in individuals who have the ability to recall the exemplifying information. It is therefore important for journalist and other media personalities to exercise high levels of caution in the use of exemplars and attributions. The ability of other stakeholders such as corporate communications to actively respond to any bias in the media in it use of exemplification will provide the public with more literacy on matters related to understanding the use of exemplifications. The use of propaganda in fueling political conflicts has often been perceived as the role the media. This is because such information is often biased towards a specific group of people and this increases the possibility that these stereotyped negatively by the propaganda will develop some agitation against those protected by the perceived propaganda hence fueling conflict. The media in this case is an influential platform that can play the role of a divisive or a uniting agent in the society. Article- (Johnson, 1990): Age Difference in Decision Making: A process Methodology for Examining Strategic Information Processing August 2, 2015 Decision making process requires the decision maker to spend time evaluating the available information prior to making the final decision. The decision making process requires the use of specific decision rules that fall in the category of compensatory and noncompensatory decision rules. Compensatory rules often demand high processing techniques. These demands are inclusive of information that is weighed, summed and assessed on the basis of each available alternative. Noncompensatory operate on the basis of reduced processing demands. During this process there is an elimination of alternatives even without an exhaustive search. There may be elimination by aspects which is related to more heuristic approach aimed at the reduction of cognitive processing loads. Bias in decision making process can be linked to the differences in the approaches used by women and men in the decision making process. Inasmuch as they may use both the compensatory and noncompensatory rules. The difference often appears in the use of contingents upon processing demands during the decision making process. Women concentrate more on compensatory rules due to the desire to exhaustively assess the available alternatives. Through this process, women spend more time viewing and reviewing different bits of information to ensure that the resulting choice is the best out of the available alternatives. The male population due to the desire to get things done often engage in an extensive use of noncompensatory rules. This enables a quick elimination of those alternatives that do not seem to fulfill the objectives of the decision. References Argote, L., Devadas, R & Melone, N. (1990). The Base-Rate Fallacy: Contrasting Processes and Outcomes of Group and Individual Judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 46, 296-310 (1990) Arkes, H & Ayton, P. (1999). The Sunk Cost and Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational Than Lower Animals? Psychological Bulletin 1999, Vol. 125, No. 5, 591-600 Biyalogorsky, E., Boulding, W & Staelin, R. (2008). Stuck in the Past: Why managers Persist with New Product Failure. Journal of Marketing Vol. 70, 108–121 Durand, R. (2003). Predicting a Firm’s Forecasting Ability: The Roles of Organizational Illusion of Control and Organizational Attention. Strategic Management Journal Strat. Mgmt. J., 24: 821–838 Gilbey, A & Hill, S. (2012). Confirmation Bias in General Aviation Lost Procedures. Applied Cognitive Psychology, Appl. Cognit. Psychol. 26: 785–795 Handgraaf, M & Dijik, E & Vermunt, R. (2008). Less Power or Powerless? Egocentric Empathy Gaps and the Irony of Having Little Versus No Power in Social Decision Making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2008, Vol. 95, No. 5, 1136–1149 Hwang, Y & Jeong, S. (2012). Public's Responses to Aviation Accidents: The Role of Exemplification and Attributions. Journal of Applied Communication Research, 40:4, 350-367, DOI: 10.1080/00909882.2012.712709 Johnson, M. (1990). Age Differences in Decision Making: A Process Methodology for Examining Strategic Information Processing. Journal of Gerontology: Psychological Scibncks IWO. Vol. 45. No. 2. P75-78 Read More