Assessing the Effectiveness of Early Warning Systems in Flood Emerrgency Response - Capstone Project Example

ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS IN FLOOD EMERGENCY RESPONSE Student’s Name: Code + Course name Professor’s name University City, State Date Abstract The current society has to deal with the increasing prevalence of natural and technological threats such as floods and earthquakes among others. The emergency management system defines the measures implemented in responding to such threats. The objective of the integrated emergency management systems is to prepare and respond to the emergencies. The preparation for such emergencies aims at enhancing the recovery process. An important aspect in the flood management strategy is the need to understand the changing nature of the emergency in both severity and frequency in response to the recent changes in the climate. The United Kingdom (UK) and Turkey are some of the countries that have encountered the devastating effects of flood disasters in the recent years. Despite the fact that both countries have an already established flood management system, the systems have been unable to meet their preparedness and response roles effectively. It is evident that poor response to such disasters that emanates from poor preparation has turned out to be one of the reasons behind the failure of the already established emergency management systems to respond to flooding emergencies. The study assesses the effectiveness of the early warning systems in two coastal cities, Southampton in England and Izmit in Turkey. CHAPTER 1: Introduction Dealing with the flooding emergency has proven to be a significant challenge to the UK and Turkey. It is clear that the emergency management systems of both countries have depended on previous experiences to strengthen their resilience towards floods. In order to enhance the effectiveness of the flood management systems, the countries have embedded flood preparedness, response, and recovery into the policy and public discourse. However, the evolution of emergency in the affected areas and the extension of flood-prone areas have necessitated a similar enhancement in the resilience of the flood management approach adopted by both parties. It is clear that the effectiveness of such systems depends on several factors. The ability of the systems to facilitate communication, collaboration, and coordination determines the success of the system in dealing with flooding emergencies. A system that exhibits exceptional performance on the factors ensures that the response approach integrates all stakeholders from the government agency to the community response plan. Effective communication guarantees the immediate relaying of warning and proper response measures as well as potential evacuation routes in a bid to reduce the impact of the disaster. The paper intends to unearth the hidden failures of the flood management system by assessing the effectiveness of the flood emergency response approach in both countries. The paper targets thirty respondents from each coastal city. The research would consider the input of the Government and the civil protection agency in warning local communities before the occurrence of the flooding emergency. 1.1 Aim and Objectives The aim of the research is to assess the effectiveness of the flood emergency response of both countries. The research intends to gather feedback from the communities that encountered the flooding emergency in both cities regarding the conveyance of early warning information, the reliability of the warning, the effectiveness of the response and recovery operations, and the contribution of early warning towards improving the outcomes of the response and recovery operations. 1.1.1 Main Objective To assess the effectiveness of the flood emergency response employed by both countries 1.1.2 Other Objectives To determine whether the community receives warning information before the occurrence of floods To determine how the community responds to flooding disasters after their occurrence To determine whether the community received information concerning the effective ways of responding to the flood following its occurrence To determine the reliability of the early warnings relayed by the local authorities 1.2 Rationale It is evident that early warning systems enable people to flee from tsunamis, tornados, and flash floods. Effective early warning systems play a massive role in enabling local authorities to implement advance measures of sheltering individuals or evacuating individuals from an area that anticipates a flooding incidence. In the case of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone, early warning systems enable the local community and the emergency response teams to prepare for the emergency by availing food, shelter, and other supplies in advance thereby guaranteeing a faster response to the flooding emergency. It is also clear that issuing warnings early enough provides ample time for individuals to protect some of their infrastructure and property. Preparation measures san across all stakeholders from the emergency responders to the affected individuals. Upon hearing about a potential flooding incidence, reservoir operators can respond by reducing the level of water in the reservoirs thereby allowing the reservoirs to hold more floodwater. The warning signs also enable local authorities to avail the necessary equipment and supplies required to cater for the needs of the victims after the occurrence of an emergency. Early warning also reduces the time required for aid agencies to mobilise their resources and assets. Rather than fleeing, flood victims can also reinforce their rooftops and shutter their windows. Early warnings also have the potential of enhancing the preparedness of healthcare facilities as they anticipate a sudden increase in the demand for their services. This explains the massive role that early warning plays in improving the outcome of the response and recovery operations following the occurrence of a flooding incidence. However, there are instances where the authorities do not warn local communities in advance before the occurrence of the flooding emergency. In other cases, the authorities relay the warnings a few days before the occurrence of the disaster thereby making it difficult for the emergency responders to prepare for the emergency adequately before its occurrence. CHAPTER 2: Literature Review It is clear that early warning systems have played a massive role towards reducing the number of deaths and fatalities recorded during flooding emergencies. According to Smith (2017), early warning has turned out as a mandatory measure in dealing with flooding emergencies. Early warning systems comprise of the facilities and capabilities required to create and disseminate meaningful and timely warning information to enable at-risk individuals to prepare and respond appropriately in the availability of sufficient time to minimise the possibility of loss or harm (Kundzewicz 2013). The effective reduction of disasters depends on early warning systems as the platform setting the benchmark for the response and recovery approach. Monitoring the flooding risk plays a massive role in enabling the monitoring agencies to detect potential risks before communicating the risks to the emergency agencies and responders as well as the local community. People-centred early warning systems have proven detrimental towards enhancing the risk preparedness of the affected individuals as well as the emergency responders. Concentrating the warning systems to the individuals takes place through several processes. Risk knowledge is the first process that entails understanding the risk in question (Kundzewicz 2013). At the onset of the process, the flood management agency understands the risk associated with the flood risk especially in flood-prone areas. Following the identification of the risk, the emergency agency monitors the risk to determine the areas likely to suffer from the flood risk. The emergency agency in conjunction with local authorities embark on communicating the risk to the at-risk individuals to prepare them for the impending disaster. After disseminating and communicating the warning to all stakeholders in the emergency management system, the next step entails availing the response capability to enable the smooth implementation of the response and recovery operations. It is essential to use community-based early warning systems that focus on the community individuals. The people-centred aspect of such systems enables the use of the system by locals in the community to prepare for the use of local capacities and resources in the preparation and response to flooding events. Ensuring that the community is able to utilise its local capabilities and resources in dealing with the flooding emergency plays a massive role in reducing the vulnerability of such individuals to the flood risk. The following sections explain the stages of the people-centric community-based early warning system. 2.1 Risk Knowledge Risk knowledge entails the evaluation and mapping of specific vulnerabilities, hazards, and exposure. One of the probable ways of integrating risk knowledge at the community level is the discussion and documentation of issues associated with the flood risk through the Community Risk Assessments (CRAs). The emphasis is ensuring that community actors are aware and understand the risk (Rogers & Tsirkunov 2011). The issues discussed in the assessments include the vulnerability, hazards, exposure, and capabilities of the risk. In the creation of risk knowledge, it is necessary to map previous flood events and determine the relationship between the height of the river observed at an upstream location and the anticipated downstream inundation. With reference to past flooding incidences, it would be possible to establish upstream ‘danger’ and ‘warning’ water levels. The next step would entail deriving the thresholds by combining the experience of the community and the mapping of the flood hazard. The warning level refers to the level at which the water attains the highest level in the riverbanks whereas the warning level is the level at which the water overflows the banks thereby flowing into the community fields and homesteads adjacent to the riverbanks. The phase also enables communities to locate safe sites and routes that they would follow during the flooding emergency (Smith et al. 2017). The exercise entails a combination of both community and scientific knowledge with the objective of enhancing the understanding of the community about the risk. The discussions also enable the community to identify the right course of action in dealing with the emergency in the event of its occurrence. For areas surrounding the river basin, it is necessary to ascertain that the accuracy of the warning and danger levels to the actual impact in the identified areas. Changes in the climate patterns require constant adjustments to the levels in order to ascertain that the levels coincide with the actual outcomes in the flood plains. Therefore, integrating the community in the setting and revising of the levels in relation to the latest flooding incidences is detrimental towards ensuring that community actors have the sufficient knowledge to deal with the flood risk. 2.2 Monitoring and Warning A component that monitors the flood risk and warns the public about the probable occurrence of the disaster is imperative in the early warning system. The system includes the definition of the indicators and parameters that form the basis of the early warnings. This ensures that the forecasts and alerts are timely and accurate. Key to the success of the early warning system is ensuring that the local communities are the main actors in the process by engaging them in the monitoring and evaluation processes rather than regarding them as passive receivers of the already processed warning and alert information. Instead of considering the danger level as the only basis for reporting the risk to downstream communities, gauge readers should also communicate certain rainfall amounts that exceed the normal threshold. It is also necessary to upgrade the manual process of monitoring river gauges to the national systems of monitoring. This necessitates an increase in the number of meteorological and hydrological stations as a measure of enhancing the monitoring and warning processes. Rather than being manual stations, automating the processes of the stations would be effective in improving the effectiveness of such stations. Automating the stations would ensure the continuous recording and monitoring of the river levels and rainfall amounts. The resulting scenario is a case where the central government is responsible for the costs of the monitoring and reporting of the river levels (Smith et al. 2017; Basha & Rus 2007). The government, through the emergency management department should then convey the warning to local communities immediately following the identification of the threat. 2.3 Dissemination and Communication In the event that the recorded water level in the river basins attains the ‘danger’ or ‘warning’ level, it is necessary to disseminate and communicate the information to the at-risk individuals. The primary objective of the dissemination and communication systems should be to ensure that the local communities receive the warning in advance to enable them to prepare for the impending flooding emergency (de León et al. 2006). It is also necessary to ensure that the local communities understand the warning information and implement necessary actions to deal with the warning. In order for the early warning systems to be effective, they should be able to convey information about the timing, location, impact, scale, response, and probability. Some of the aspects covered include when the hazard would strike and what the at-risk population should do to protect themselves from the hazard. Besides putting the systems into place, it is also necessary to test the systems to ensure that they are capable of delivering the warning in an efficient and timely manner. This heightens the need for other communication channels rather than depending on a single channel or communication device. A potential approach to the dissemination and communication of the warning would entail the use of predefined communication charts through the SMS or telephones. Communication charts should have a list of all the relevant stakeholders in the project as well as the protocols and procedures required in the dissemination process (Smith et al. 2017). With the help of the channels, it would be possible to relay warning information in a timely and efficient manner. In order to realise this, gauge readers should have mobile numbers of the locals in the downstream regions to enable the dissemination of information regarding the preparation for the floods and the appropriate steps that locals should take in response to the floods. Gauge readers should also inform the district or county heads as well as the disaster management committees at the local level to enable the immediate preparation for the disaster that includes the deployment of emergency equipment and other supplies that would serve the needs of the victims of the disaster. In the event that the warnings reach the communities, it is the responsibility of the disaster management committees at the community level to use communication devices such as sirens, loudspeakers, and hand-held megaphones to ensure that all members of the at-risk community receive and understand the warning and its implications. This also acts as the point at which other stakeholders such as search and rescue agencies and first-aid organisations come into play to ascertain that all at-risk individuals, especially those that present the highest levels of vulnerability receive the warning information. The community actors should also be ready and available to assist vulnerable groups to deal with the disaster following its occurrence. The communication system can also adopt the top-down telemetry approach that triggers the automatic dissemination of the information through text messages (SMS) to ensure that the information reaches district officers, security forces and basin forces. The district officers would then instruct security forces to relay the warnings to local FM radio stations, army posts, and police posts to ensure that the warning reaches a greater percentage of the population. The other top-down dissemination approach should occur at the sub-national or county level. Under the approach, it is the responsibility of the district offices to maintain updated electronic records on the state of the disaster with the use of sirens to ensure the immediate dissemination of information following the detection of ‘warning’ levels. Dissemination of the warning can also take place through a bottom-up approach starting from the local level (Smith et al. 2017). A combination of the three dissemination methods would guarantee the effective communication of the warning to all the at-risk individuals thereby enabling them to adopt the necessary actions in preparation for the actual occurrence of the disaster. 2.4 Response Capability It is evident that response capability is the other critical factor that is detrimental to the success of the early warning system. It entails the building of national and local capacities that would ensure the effective response to warnings by deploying well-defined plans for the response while capitalising on the local knowledge and capacities (Jubach & Tokar 2016). The focus of the response capabilities is to enhance the capacity of the volunteers and at-risk individuals to receive, analyse and respond to the warnings. In the quest to strengthen the capabilities of the at-risk individuals and volunteers, one of the approaches entails the use of programs that create the awareness of the stakeholders about the appropriate course of action in the event of the occurrence of the disaster. Such programs include the use of FM radio stations, leaflets, calendars, posters, song competitions, wall paintings, school essay and art competitions, and street theatre. Under the awareness program, each approach delivers specific information that is necessary in enabling the effective preparedness and reaction of the local communities and volunteers to the warning. Predefining options, roles, and responsibilities for the response is one of the ways of strengthening the response capabilities. This includes the identification of safe areas and evacuation routes. In strengthening the response capabilities of the at-risk individuals and volunteers, it is also necessary for the teams to have access to the response and dissemination tools such as life vests, loudspeakers, and ropes. Strengthening response capabilities also entails embedding response plans into the extended contingency plans that span across local and national stakeholders. It is also necessary to designate a certain group of individuals as ‘first receivers’. The group of individuals should undergo adequate training in understanding, repackaging, and communicating the warning messages to the local communities and other actors to ensure the appropriate dissemination of the message to reach the target group. It is also necessary to practise and test the response approaches as a strategy of strengthening the response capabilities. Mock-drills have proven effective in testing the response approaches (Smith et al. 2017). Conducting post-event review would also be necessary in testing the response approaches since it enables the actors to refer to past events in determining the effective approaches of dealing with future disasters. In order to regard a community as ‘response capable’, the community should know, have the experience, and the means to implement appropriate response actions. A flood event serves as an actual test to the response capabilities. At the end of each monsoon, it is necessary to review the shortcomings and identify the effective ways of dealing with the shortcomings in the event of occurrence of a future monsoon. 2.5 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Early Warning Systems (EWS) It is difficult to quantify the effectiveness of early warning systems from the cost perspective. Consequently, limited research has embarked on quantifying the costs associated with the effectiveness of the early warning systems. The main concern for previous researches that have attempted to quantify the variable is the fact that the researchers have failed to include the losses avoided through the loss of buildings and other property as well as the destruction of critical infrastructure (Roger & Tsirkunov 2011). However, Schroter et al. (2008) made an important contribution to the literature by evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of the warning systems in dealing with flash floods. The author limited the research to small river basins. According to the findings, it was clear that an increase in the lead-time enables the emergency responders and the at-risk individuals to prepare for the flood thereby reducing the loss resulting from the disaster by significant margins. However, the author also identified the other side of the case by looking at instances where the alert turned out to be false. Such cases revealed poor reliability of the warning information that implied a false alert thereby resulting in economic losses on the part of all stakeholders that had incurred financial expenses in preparation for the disaster. It is impossible to ignore the significant uncertainty associated with flood warnings. The uncertainty emanates from the fact that flood forecasting results is part of the other hydro meteorological tests that use the limited knowledge about the atmospheric state and the hydrological system to issue alerts and warnings. The limited availability of knowledge is an indicator that the current forecasting system is unable to predict natural disasters such as floods with zero error. The analysis of past events is indicative of the past errors associated with the flood forecasting systems. One of the issues of concern is asking local responders and communities about the advantage of receiving warning about the impending flood in advance and whether the warning could have reduced the material and property loss incurred because of the flood by a certain percentage. In accordance with a study conducted by Schroter, the study revealed a positive correlation between preparedness and the effectiveness of the measures of mitigating the flood. Schroter et al. found that a 12-hour lead-time was capable of reducing the loss by 60%. However, a one-hour lead-time reduced the loss by a mere 20%. From the findings of the study, it is clear that an increase in the lead-time enhances the level of preparedness of the community and other actors thereby reducing the material and property loss resulting from the disaster. However, it is also clear that the issuance of warning compels individuals to stop engaging in productive work and divert their effort to preventative and mitigation measures. As a result, individuals incur significant losses when the warning turns out to be false. This calls for the need for ascertaining that the warning is reliable. A comparison of the productive hours lost in preparing for the disaster and the actual cost of the move indicates a rise in the cost per hour when the productive individual diverts attention from productive work to preparing for the disaster. Therefore, it is necessary for meteorological departments to reflect carefully on the decision of issuing a flood warning when the available evidence is not adequate to prove that the flood will indeed occur as predicted. Determining the expectation of an alert entails computing the product between the voidable damage and the warning reliability. The implementation of non-structural and structural flood protection strategies identifies the complexities that emerge from implementing flood protection measures. The fact that the cost to benefit ratio is compelling implies that early warning systems should also include local protection in order to determine the most efficient combination. It is clear that the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) determines the agricultural productivity of the different parts of the world. However, the variability of the oscillations cause droughts and floods in some areas (Roger & Tsirkunov 2011). In the case of such climate disturbances, it is proper to state that early warning systems enable the adjustment of farming decisions thereby averting agricultural disasters (Grasso & Singh 2011). Some of the responsive measures in such cases is the growing of water consumptive plants in the event of an early flood warning and drought-resistant crops in the case of a drought warning. 2.6 Early Flood Warning in the UK Climate changes have subjected the UK to disasters. Storm Desmond is one of the most recent disasters witnessed in the country (van Oldenborgh et al. 2015). Between the 4th and 6th of December, 2015, the storm caused widespread flooding events in several parts of the country thereby resulting in massive losses on the part of the local communities and the government. The flooding event that extended into 2016 turned out to be an extraordinary hydrological disaster ever witnessed in the country. On December 26, flood warnings had totalled 500 in Northern England and Wales. The warnings entailed both ‘severe warning’ and ‘warning and alert’ categories. The entire of Scotland also witnessed widespread flooding events. The severe warnings prompted locals in the communities to evacuate their property as several rivers recorded new peaks (Barker et al. 2016). Regardless of the flood warnings issued, it was clear that individuals and the community still incurred massive losses because of the disaster. England still faced the negative side of the disaster regardless of the experience that the emergency management system had in dealing with the 2007 summer flooding event. Following the surface water flooding witnessed in the year, the flood emergency management system in the country had responded by enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of its forecasting, reporting, and warning systems (Ochoa‐Rodríguez et al. 2015). However, it was clear that the country beefed up its efforts in forecasting surface water flooding. From the experience, it was clear that warning systems play a pivotal role in enabling effective response and recovery operations in the event of a flooding incidence. Even though Local Authorities (LAs) at both the county and district levels found warning systems to be beneficial to the success of the flood response and recovery operations, it was evident that Las have a limited understanding of the reason for issuing the alerts as well as the difference between the risk and likelihood. A significant proportion of LAs take the necessary action after receiving warning about an impending surface-water flooding event. The response adopted by the authorities depends on the lead-time and the risk level. The greatest level of response occurs when the probability of the disaster is 60% with a 2-hour lead-time, 80% with 1-hour lead-time, and 80% with 0.5-hour lead-time. The reactiveness of the local authorities towards warnings has also increased over the years. The second-generation alerts have also proved to be better than the first-generation alerts from the reliability perspective (Ochoa‐Rodríguez et al. 2015). From the 2007 flooding event, it was clear that the national approach of dealing the approach was ineffective (Golding 2009). Therefore, it was necessary to introduce a two-tier national-local approach that combines the efforts of both the national and local stakeholders in responding and recovering from flooding emergencies. 2.7 Early Flood Warning in Turkey Previous encounters with floods major flooding disasters have compelled Turkey to establish the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) to ensure the effective forecasting of potential flooding events and the subsequent dissemination and communication of the warning to all stakeholders. The establishment of the system aimed at covering the Maritza-Tudja-Adja transboundary river-basin system that crosses the borders of Turkey, Greece, and Bulgaria (Tuncok 2015). The city of Edirne in Turkey witnessed major flooding disasters in the country thereby necessitating the integration of advanced technological tools to deal with the disaster. The country has also integrated FFEWS into the decisions of the General Directorate of State Hydraulics Works in the country. The General Directorate is the main regulatory agency tasked with the responsibility of planning and managing flood services. The establishment of FFEWS resulted in the identification of a structured mechanism of estimating extreme river discharges at different probability levels and locations with the objective of enabling the detection of potential flooding incidences. The need for developing a properly functioning early warning system was evident from Gurer and Ozguler’s report way back in 2004. In the report, the authors identified the existence of non-operational but already completed flood-warning system and real-time data collection infrastructure (Gurer & Ozguler 2004). If the Government through the General Directorate had addressed the issues identified in the report, Turkey could have managed to reduce the losses caused by floods that occurred several years later. The establishment of FFEWS indicated the massive role that flood forecasting and warning plays in generating information that is essential to the effective implementation of response and recovery operations. It was evident that warning systems are meaningless if they are unable to disseminate and communicate information to the at-risk individuals, volunteers, and other community actors as well as government agencies that are responsible for dealing with floods in the event of their occurrence (Tuncok 2015). As a result, local stakeholders should maintain close contact with the met office to ensure that they are aware of the impending disasters and prepare themselves for dealing with the disaster to reduce loss of critical infrastructure, property, and life. CHAPTER 3: Research Methodology The aim of the paper is to determine the experiences and usefulness of early warning systems from the perspective of local authorities and at-risk individuals in the coastal cities of Southampton (UK) and Izmit (Turkey). The paper also seeks to determine the alternatives for improving the system taking into account the existing human, technological, and monetary resources in both countries. 3.1 Method In collecting data, the survey intends to interview thirty locals that have fallen victims to a previous flooding disaster. The study also targets local authorities in the area. On the part of the at-risk individuals that have encountered the flooding disaster before, the study intends to determine whether the individuals received any warning about the impending disaster before the actual occurrence of the flood. The study also intends to determine the lead-time associated with the warnings. The study also intends to determine the exact content of the warning messages. Some of the points of interest to the study is whether the local authorities or communicating agents in question explained the lead-time for the disaster as well as other specific details such as safe locations and location routes in the event of occurrence of the floods. The study also intends to determine whether the local authorities communicated specific points for collecting essential supplies such as water and food. The study also intends to determine whether local authorities instructed at-risk individuals to carry specific supplies such as snacks and water. Finally, the study intends to ask respondents about the benefit of the warning towards preventing the loss of personal property and other items. The study intends to use the findings to evaluate the effectiveness of the flood emergency response in attaining the desired outcomes of reducing the loss to property and lives. 3.2 Sample The study targets thirty individuals that fell victims to the most recent flooding disaster in the city. The selection of the sample emanates from the fact that the individuals gained first-hand experience from the past flooding disaster. As a result, they would be able to convey personal accounts regarding the disaster. The fact that the respondents would be able to state whether the early warning system was beneficial or not from their first-hand, experience is the other benefit associated with selecting the group of respondents. On the part of the local authorities, the study intends to interview this group of respondents because of the fact that they took place in the actual dissemination and communication of the warning message. From their accounts, the study intends to determine the lead-times, message conveyed, and the extent of coverage to determine whether the information is consistent with the information gathered from the locals that were victims to the disaster. The study will exclude participants that did not take part in the most recent flooding disaster. 3.3 Analysis The study will use closed-ended questionnaires to guide the interview process and simplify the analysis process. The study will use a five-point Likert scale with strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, and strongly disagree as the options. With the Likert scale, it would be easy to analyse the findings of the study. The use of an automated questionnaire by the study would reduce the time taken to feed the data manually into the computer for the analysis process thereby enabling the study to cover the target respondents within one month. Reference List Barker, L., Hannaford, J., Muchan, K., Turner, S. and Parry, S., 2016. The winter 2015/2016 floods in the UK: a hydrological appraisal. Weather, 71(12), pp.324-333. Basha, E. and Rus, D., 2007, December. Design of early warning flood detection systems for developing countries. In Information and Communication Technologies and Development, 2007. ICTD 2007. International Conference on (pp. 1-10). IEEE. de León, J.C.V., Bogardi, J., Dannenmann, S. and Basher, R., 2006. Early warning systems in the context of disaster risk management. Entwicklung and Ländlicher Raum, 2, pp.23-25. Golding, B.W., 2009. Long lead time flood warnings: reality or fantasy?. Meteorological Applications, 16(1), pp.3-12. Grasso, V.F. and Singh, A., 2011. Early warning systems: State-of-art analysis and future directions. Draft report, UNEP, 1. Gurer, I. and Ozguler, H., 2004. Turkey: Recent flood disasters in northwestern black sea region. Integrated Flood Management. Jubach, R. and Tokar, A.S., 2016. International severe weather and flash flood hazard early warning systems—Leveraging coordination, cooperation, and partnerships through a hydrometeorological project in Southern Africa. Water, 8(6), p.258. Kundzewicz, Z.W., 2013. 15 Floods: lessons about early warning systems. Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation, p.347. Ochoa‐Rodríguez, S., Wang, L.P., Thraves, L., Johnston, A. and Onof, C., 2015. Surface water flood warnings in England: overview, assessment and recommendations based on survey responses and workshops. Journal of Flood Risk Management. Rogers, D. and Tsirkunov, V., 2011. Costs and benefits of early warning systems. Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction. ISDR and World Bank. Rogers, D. and Tsirkunov, V., 2011. Implementing hazard early warning systems. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Schröter, K., Velasco, C., Torres, D., Nachtnebel, H.P., Kahl, B., Beyene, M., Rubin, C. and Gocht, M., 2008. Effectiveness and efficiency of early warning systems for flash-floods. CRUE Research Report No I-5. Smith, P.J., Brown, S. and Dugar, S., 2017. Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17(3), p.423. Tuncok, I.K., 2015. Transboundary river basin flood forecasting and early warning system experience in Maritza River basin between Bulgaria and Turkey. Natural Hazards, 75(1), pp.191-214. van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E., Haustein, K. and Cullen, H., 2015. Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK–an event attribution study in near-real time. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss, 12, pp.13197-13216. Appendix The Interview Questions The purpose of the interview is to evaluate the effectiveness of the early warning systems in the flood emergency preparation and response operations in your city. The interview questions comprise of a Likert scale with either four or five entries. Please select the entry that best fits your opinion regarding the element under description. You will spend between 15 and 20 minutes to respond to the interview questions. We guarantee the confidentiality of your feedback. Therefore, we will limit its use to academic research only. 1. Did you experience the most recent flood disaster in the city? Yes No 2. To what extent do you agree with the following statements? a. The local authorities communicated the warning effectively before the occurrence of the flooding disaster. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree b. The lead-time was sufficient in the preparation of the flooding emergency. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree c. I was able to evacuate most of my movable property. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree d. The early warning provided sufficient information on safe locations and evacuation routes. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree e. Because of the early warning, local authorities were able to deploy the required supplies necessary in responding to the disaster. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree f. The warning message contained information about the location of critical supplies. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree g. The lead-time indicated by the local authorities in the warning message was the exact time that remained before the occurrence of the disaster. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree 3. Does your local authority take action in warning about impending floods before the occurrence of flooding disasters? Never Seldom Most of the time Always 4. How useful do you think the early warning system is to your ability to mitigate and protect yourself against flood risks? Not Useful at All Not Useful Useful Very Useful 5. Do you think it is necessary to improve the approach of disseminating and communicating the warning message? Not Necessary at All Not Necessary Necessary Very Necessary Thank You for the Participation in the Interview!! Read More