Complex Systems, System Failures and Possible Strategies that Could be Used to Minimize the Risk - Assignment Example

 Complex Systems, System Failures and Possible Strategies that could be used to minimize the Risk of System Failures Complex Systems According to (Senge 2006), in our current modern day business systems, people tend to often think of business in terms of a series of basic functions that need to be performed. However this Senge argues that this thinking is flawed because a business should ideally be considered as a whole system that is comprised of several smaller units working together. This is evidenced by the fact that when organizations happen to either fail or succeed, the success or failure does not occur to a single unit it happens as on a holistic or integrated systems level and not as a multitude of several collective independent processes. The System Goal and Strategy The main overriding characteristic of any system is its goals. Every unit in a particular system is geared towards the attainment of the one major goal that the entire system has been designed to attain. This goal is normally the main purpose for which the particular organization was formed. These goals tend to be extremely broad in scope and have a long-term duration. The attainment of a system’s goals is similar to a journey towards a certain given destination. It is basically a systematic approach towards getting to where the organization is currently is to where its goals are situated and hence be in the enviable position of having achieved its goals. Unlike a typical journey which is mainly characterized as being travelled through space, an organization’s journey is through time. During the organization’s journey, there might be several necessary changes that will have to be made; these changes might involve changes in initiatives, actions and policies of some kind. It is imperative that these changes are implemented as a result of constant complex problems that might face the company from time to time. If the company insists after resulting to the same old policies and actions to solve problems that these policies and actions were previously unable to solve, it will fall to the trap of obtaining the same failing results as a result of constantly doing what it has always done. A shift in policies, initiatives and actions might be of great benefit towards helping the company obtain different positive results. This constant shift in a company’s actions, policies and initiatives is a clear indicator that an organization’s journey is not always smooth and is bound to be faced with several complex challenges whose intensity is relatively proportional to the complexity of the organization’s systems (Dettmer, 2011). The Black Swan Effect Before the continent of Australia was ever discovered, it was the general belief that all swans in the world were white. This was completely affirmed by the undisputed empirical evidence that no one had ever seen a swan of any other color other than white. The sighting of black swans in Australia completely changed this general belief and assumption. This illustration illustrates the severe limitation of people to learn from their experience or observations compounded with the fragility of their often inadequate knowledge. It was seen that one single observation was capable of invalidating a general statement that had been derived from millennia of sightings involving millions of only white swans. According to (Taleb, 2007) the impact of highly improbable events like the sighting of black swans can be used to explain almost each and everything in our world today. This ranges from the complex dynamics that of some of the historical events, the obvious success of some of the world religions and ideologies to the close personal elements of our own lives. The evident rippling effects of the black swan effect started increasing several millennia ago. As the world started showing signs of becoming more complicated during the industrial revolution, the black swan effect started gaining considerable momentum and the ordinary daily events that we continually find ourselves discussing and attempt to predict from the insights we gain from reading newspapers, were seen to slowly becoming less and less consequential. The combination of having a relatively large impact in relation to their low predictability is what is seen to cause black swans to be considered as such great puzzles. The central idea behind black swans is our innate blindness in regards to randomness. It is easily seen that life can generally be termed as the collective outcome of a handful of major noteworthy shocks. Black swans can arguably be said to make what we do not happen to know to be far more relevant in comparison to what we do actually know. Possible Strategies that can be used to Minimize the Effects of Complex System Failures Complex modern systems normally harbor a high risk of failure however how well such systems are managed by those concerned. One of the many possible strategies that can be affected to attempt to effectively diminish the probability of the failing of such systems is to predict and make radical changes to the systems even though the eventuality of such risks occurring may be minimal (Senge, 2006). Studies should be made focusing on the catastrophic black swan events that have afflicted other organizations with similar complex systems. This will help the organization better anticipate and create possible measures that will enable it to avoid and possibly totally circumvent the risk of being afflicted by the catastrophe, or in the event that the catastrophe is unavoidable, the organization will have advance warning of the possible black swan effect and will be able to put systems in place that will help it in adequately dealing with the situation (Taleb, 2007). Collective “mindfulness” which is basically the idea that an organization’s design team can be able to effectively develop and produce a more wide range comprehensive picture by combining their efforts together as compared to if the task was left to a single individual. This will help create more avenues by which the risk of systematic failures occurring will be minimized (Pidgeon, 2012). The promotion of group norms that will focus on the stressing of overall open communication coupled with mandatory deference to expertise wherever such expertise is available in the organization can help promote the early identification and optimal response to any signs of rapidly escalating system failure conditions in the complex organization, before and actual full-scale disaster can happen (Taleb, 2007). Henry Crumpton Henry Crumpton was instrumental in ensuring the effective success of the United States in the events that lead to the overthrowing of the Taliban and Al Qaeda organization in Afghanistan and the eventual assassination of the Taliban leader Osama Bin Laden. How Crumpton Was able to Deliver a Katrina to the Taliban Shortly after his appointment to be the CIA’s point man in Afghanistan by his mentor Cofer Black, who is quoted as describing Crumpton as a man you could bet your life on, Crumpton met with the then President of the United States George Bush and after a lengthy discussion he was given the order to ensure that he decisively brings down the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Henry Crumpton was able to marshal the united States CIA after the events of 9/11 to effectively place the CIA behind the enemy lines and working in conjunction with the local Afghani tribal leaders, local informants and United States sympathizers, he was table to effectively manage to wipe-out most of the Taliban and al Qaeda’s fixed targets and their mostly antiquated aircraft systems in a matter of only three days. In this operation, he had at his disposal only about 500 Americans and about 110 CIA agents to use. After this, the he was able to lead the CIA in overthrowing the Taliban regime from the country within a matter of a few days. The Success Features of Crumpton’s Leadership Style Crumpton is quoted as stating that one of the most important elements of being a good and effective CIA operations officer is the ability for one to be able to have an adequate understanding of themselves, who one typically is and how they would be promoted to react in the event of a particularly stressful environment. One should also have top-notch interpersonal skills that will often come in handy in various work related dealings. In addition to all these qualities, the importance of being able to have a mind that is open as well as being able to listen and learn from others can never be overly emphasized. He can clearly be seen to have transferred these skills and used them in leading the CIA’s operation against the Taliban. One of the most important successful features of Crumpton’s leadership style is illustrated in the fact that about five years before the events of 911 he had been instrumental in leading CIA agents in planning and executing a delicate plan that was aimed at trying to eliminate the possible threat of the Taliban. Under his leadership, the team had successfully managed to trace the actual location of the former Taliban leader Osama bin Laden but had been unable to receive permission to eliminate him. This was despite the fact that he already had agents on the ground that could have been able to mount a successful operation against the Taliban leader. His leadership style is portrayed as being adequately prepared to deal with any eventualities as illustrated from this example. This trait is further strengthened by the fact that significant modifications were made to the surveillance drones that he had used to scout for the Taliban leader to enable them to carry missiles that could be fired on the rebel target in the event of any further future sightings of Osama. Crumpton is also seen to have effectively capitalized on the intelligence gathered and plans that had been drafted several years before the 9/11 attacks. He did not ignore them but he managed to successfully use them. Crumpton’s leadership style involved the giving of very simple easy to understand and execute instructions to his men. In the interview that he gave to 60 minutes. Crumpton is quoted as saying that he gave his men the simple orders to find the Taliban and kill them. Comparison between Cofer Black’s and Crumpton’s leadership Styles Cofer Black and Crumpton were both very influential leaders during the post 9/11 American campaigns though they exhibited different leadership styles which happened to have varying degrees of success. As opposed to Crumpton who was seen to be open and would constantly report to his superiors. An internal CIA report that sought to establish the performance of the CIA agency just prior to the attacks made on 9/11/ criticized Black on his failure to pass crucial information that the two terrorists al-Mihdhar and al-Hazmi had entered the country. Black’s integrity was also found to be wanting when the 9/11 Commission failed to find any evidence that the FBI had prior access to information pertaining to the two hijackers. This was contrary to Black’s testimony that was presented to the Congress joint Inquiry into 9/11. In a similar style to Crumpton’s leadership style of ensuring that he takes necessary actions to forestall repeated failure and ensure future success, Black was a “vocal advocate” promoting the arming of the predator reconnaissance drone. This was after Crumpton had failed to eliminate Osama bin Laden after sighting him due to the fact that if missiles were to be fired at the target, it would take them a long time to get to the target and there was the good chance that the mission would fail due to the probability that Osama would probably have changed his location by this time. While most of Crumpton’s operations during the war on terror were above board, Black on the other hand is said to have actively played a major leading role in most of the CIA’s more controversial post 9/11 programs. Some of which included the detention of some of the al-Qaeda suspects in secret prisons that were located outside the United States and the capture and rendition of the said suspects. Notice should be taken that there has never been any actual solid fact to support any of these contentions. Black’s main legacy as the head of the CIA’s CTC program was that he was able to create and lead an effective team that was highly successful in coordinating and the counterattack on both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorist groups immediately after the events of 9/11/ (Hedgpeth, 2007). As a result of his leadership style of considering the advice of his colleagues, Black managed to identify and lead the extremely successful implementation of the “Worldwide Attack Matrix,’ which had won presidential approval. Under this program the CIA managed to engage all the known Al Qaeda supporters and operatives on a global basis regardless of where they were on the planet. The Matrix played a pivotal role in ensuring that the follow-up attacks that had been planned by al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden did not succeed and were effectively thwarted (Hedgpeth, 2007). Conclusion As a result of the contrasts and comparisons between Black’s and Crumpton’s leadership styles, Crumpton’s leadership style can be seen as been more effective and better than Blacks. This is mainly because of the fact that Black’s leadership style is sometimes seen to end up courting a bit of controversy from time to time. This is as opposed to Crumpton’s which is clearly seen to be integral in nature. Argument Supporting the Position that in one Hundred Years from Now, the Entire Human Race Will Most Probably be Well on its Way along the Path towards Extinction The complexity of organizational systems is increasing as the years go by and new systems are developed (Senge 2006). This has lead to increasingly complex problems affecting the system and threatening to create total chaos to the current order of things and hence threatening to send the world as we know it into total chaos and destruction (Tanzi, 2012). As human choices have constantly been increasing steadily, so has complexity been increasing. Complexity can be seen to have some very damaging effects in relation to political, technological, economic and even financial systems. This can be attributed to the fact that as complexity increases, it can be seen to create previously unseen situations which are proving to be harder and harder to predict or even cope with. The fact that the human population is well on its path toward extinction can best be effectively be demonstrated by taking into consideration a few case in points of how increasing complexity is has adversely affected several systems. Technological Failures. The near catastrophic meltdown of the nuclear reactor found at the Three Miles Island which is in Pennsylvania can be attributed to its increasing complexity. The system had several complex systems that had been set up with the main aim of preventing the hazard of a critical meltdown from occurring but all the facilities systems failed which led to the near catastrophic consequence (Tanzi, 2012). Financial Failures Many of the world’s current financial failures have been attributed to having a genesis in the increasing complexity of the world’s financial systems. The increasing complexity of these systems has been blamed for making it easier for corrupt and unscrupulous individuals to actively engage in acts of corruption which have been blamed for increasing the probability of failure on the part of the systems. This was evidently the case in the failure of Enron which had a share value of $90 in August 2000 but as a result of its complex systems which covered the corruption that was being practiced by insiders, the share value of the company dropped to $0.30 by the end of 2001. Causing huge significant losses for most of the company’s share holders. Economic Failures Several countries that were thought of as having successful economies have also been affected by economic failures. An example of this is the sudden financial crises that managed to hit Indonesia and Korea in 1997. Many of the world international organizations including the IMF and other economists were caught by surprise by the crises that affected these two countries. It was thus proven that despite all the best efforts for us to try and predict possible outcomes of the increasingly complex situations, the black swan effect causes us to be greatly disadvantaged (Taleb, 2007). Political Failures Complexity can also be blamed as having played a big part toward the contribution of some of the political difficulties and even failures experienced in some countries (Kettl. 2009). In some countries, the blatant ignorance of the issues of complexity by some of the government key policy makers has been blamed for leading to the creation of polices that after their enactment into law have been deemed as being both unimaginative and naïve. Complex election systems have also been seen to give questionable results. Conclusion From the examples given above, it can clearly be seen that the increasingly complex systems are playing a huge role towards the contribution to more complex systems globally. As complexity is seen to affect nearly all the systems that we know of, it is not difficult for one to see how the resultant failures from the increasing complexity of these systems is playing a huge role towards ensuring that the entire human population on the planet will be well on its way towards extinction in a matter of about 100 years from now. References: Dettmer W. H. (2011). STRATEGIC NAVIGATION. Accessed on 20th October 2012. From:http://goalsys.com/books/documents/Strategy-Development -AGILEConference.pdf. Hedgpeth D. (2007) "Blackwater's Owner Has Spies for Hire", Washington Post, Nov. 3, 2007. Nassim T. (2007) Excerpt from “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,”http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st -tale.html?_r=1&ex=1178769600&en=bdae1078f2b4a98c&ei=5070&oref=slogin. Pidgeon N. (2012) Complex Organizational Failures: Culture, High Reliability, and the Lessons from Fukushima. Accessed on October 20th. From: http://www.nae.edu/Publications/Bridge/62556/62560.aspx. Senge M. P. (2006). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Currency/Doubleday. ISBN 0-385-51725-4. Tanzi V. (2012). Complexity and Systemic Failure. Accessed on 20th October 2012. From: http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~kokyo/sympo -feb08/PDF/Sept%20%2028%20Complexity%20and%20Failure.pdf. Read More