Future of United Arab Emirates - Coursework Example

Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Introduction 1 Historic Economy 1 Argument 2 Overview 2 Dubai 3 Abu Dhabi 3 UAE 4 Financial Corporations 5 Social Development 5 Transport 6 Automobile Industry 7 Education 7 Health Services 8 Population and Employment 9 Tourism Industry 10 Airline Industry 11 Manufacturing Industry 12 Construction Industry 13 Al Ain 2030 14 Hotels Industry 15 conclusion 16 References & bibliography 17 Executive Summary This report is intended to give an analysis for the United Arab Emirates, in terms of economics. Various major sectors that have been and still contribute to economic development of UAE have been highlighted, researched and collected to give a brief prediction what will be UAE’s future after 15 years. The entire analysis covers a comparison of previous years to current period, also addressing the risk of recent financial downturn and credit crunch. The risk of oil dependency is also critically analyzed and proved otherwise for UAE’s future. UAE government is seeking a diversified portfolio for its revenue for long term growth for its economic engine. Therefore a number of aspects were covered that highlighted those developments that were hedging from oil dependency risk. The areas covered were the Financial Corporations, Social Development, Automobile Industry, Education, Health Services, Population, Tourism, Airlines, Manufacturing and Construction Industry. After briefly overseeing each area, it concluded much growth is some chances of economic saturation n Dubai and Abu Dhabi Emirates. To counter this possibility, it was discovered that UAE will be refurbishing current infrastructure of these two cities and also starting to implement a master plan dedicated to Al Ain city. This master plan will be developing the same industries while also sustaining its unique culture and heritage. Introduction The United Arab Emirates is a federation of seven Emirates located on the Arabian Peninsula1. Each Emirate is ruled by a sheikh, a member of the royal family. These seven states are Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Qaiwain, Fuhairah and Ras Al Khaimah2. UAE is also the second largest Arab economy in the Middle East3. Its 80 percent of revenue earnings come from its top two emirates, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Abu Dhabi is the major hydrocarbon resource and industrial center for UAE while Dubai is the trading, financial and tourist hub of the UAE4. Historic Economy Previously the United Arab Emirates had not exploited its potential to extract its oil reserves until 1960. Until then all of the Emirates constituted more or less similar economies. Their main revenue generators for the economy was the fishing industry, collection from customs, pearl merchandise, export of date fruit, livestock and small-scale traders5. In 1962, Abu Dhabi becomes the first emirates in the country to export oil, since then their economy has been transformed. The Late Sheikh Zayed, ruler of Abu Dhabi of the time seized the potential of this industry6. By 1967 the UAE became a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This industry attracted foreign business investors and develop a tourism industry that helped funding the UAE to develop its national infrastructure, healthcare and education sectors phenomenally over the years. In 2004, UAE agreed to undertake negotiations towards a Free Trade Agreement with the United States. Argument Dubai, one of the driving economies for UAE today, its recent strategic plan intends to focus on non-oil economic sectors that are currently a competitive advantage for the country and expected to grow globally7. Overview My understanding about the UAE’s future economy in the next 15 years will be less oil-dependent than it was before. It is a known global fact that global oil reserves are reducing and Research and Development (R&D) is rapidly creating more cost effective alternative to basic fuel. Although crude oil is still one of the major contributors to national revenue, other sectors of the economy are gaining their share in national GDP. Abu Dhabi still is the emirate that pumps almost all of UAE’s crude oil; however it is still aiming to reduce its dependency on oil8. The recent boom of foreign investment for building mega-projects has brought another economic advantage for the UAE to prosper without the oil reserves. UAE today has a high per capita economy with a sizable annual trade surplus9. Efforts to economic diversification have reduced the portion of GDP-based-on-oil-and-gas-output to 25%10. Through previous year’s revenues from oil, the government has increased spending on job creation and infrastructure expansion to help bring greater private sector involvement11. These moves to create a more international free-trade and a friendly foreign policy show an evident move towards a more sustainable economy for the UAE. The Free Trade Agreement signed in 2004 helped foreigners to have 100% ownership of land with zero taxes to help attract foreign investors. Dubai The key strengths of Dubai is it tourism, transport, trade, construction and financial services. Dubai is moving out to its new strategic goal that involves improving numerous economic infrastructures that exists currently. The main features involve: Premium education, health care and infrastructure assets. A large empowered private sector. Creation of a sustainable knowledge-based economy. An optimal transparent regulatory environment. Complete international and domestic security. A continuation of strong and diverse international relationships. Emirate resource optimization. Maintenance of Abu Dhabi’s values, culture and heritage. A significant and ongoing contribution to the federation of the United Arab Emirates12. Despite the recent financial downturn due to credit crunch, the UAE survived from 20.4% increase in export of hydrocarbons. Currently (2007) government maintains non-oil GDP of 64%13. By 2010 UAE’s non-oil GDP is expected to cross 70%, while in 2, oil revenues provided 62 percent of the total GDP14. I evidently see a decreasing trend of revenues coming from oil sector, because of more investment in real estate, financial services and expatriate workforce. Also, one of the contributing factors that led to a major increase in inflation of property prices, hence a credit crunch due to financial recession was due to excessive investment in area of real estate and construction. Dubai’s construction industry alone covers 22% of its entire GDP15. Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi has developed itself to a metropolitan city, nearly equally developed as Dubai. It has its own airline, tourism industry, a fully developed infrastructure and also reaps revenue from oil reserves16. Abu Dhabi is also known to have the world’s one-tenth of oil reserves17. The city is in a way competing with Dubai in terms of global recognition through heavy expenditure on developments. Their future plans, however their next priority is to reduce oil dependence for future prosperity18. This weakness was realized when the recent financial downturn caused a cease in economic developments for the city, due to sharp decline in oil prices. To remove these doubts, Abu Dhabi plans to invest heavily in its real estate as a means for revenue and increasing land value. Major examples for real estate investments are the Emirates Palace Hotel, allowing sale of property to local citizens and to foreigners by law, Saadiyat Island, Guggenheim Museum and plans for upgrading their seaports through expansion. These investments clearly aim for tourism, attracting foreign investment, as well as creating jobs for people and making an attractive market/financial hub of the Middle East. When such investment is under way, there is a sizable construction industry that follows the rate of development and becomes an essential part of GDP. Ultimately, I see that Dubai and Abu Dhabi are nearly equally strong in terms of development. One of the main differences that come, is that Dubai has already saved itself from oil scarcity through tourism, commercialization and financial markets. Where Abu Dhabi has always had the luxury of having large oil deposits for export and strong liquidity, nevertheless the true idea of independence brings when they run from a diversified portfolio for GDP. Their strategy to bring this independence comes from heavy expenditure towards improving infrastructure (for the locals as well as coming expatriates) and investing in real estate that would contribute to tourism and an attractive package for foreign investors. UAE The UAE government has been spending on the development of the following sectors: Financial Corporations Higher oil revenue, strong liquidity, housing shortages and cheap credit in 2005-07 led to a surge in asset prices (shares and real estate) and consumer inflation. The global financial crisis and the resulting tight international credit market and falling oil prices have already begun to deflate asset prices and will result in slower economic growth for 200919. UAE granted license to a number of commercial banks, which can operate freely throughout the country. There is a single monetary authority, the Central Bank that governs the credit rules and regulations. There is no concept of bankruptcy in the UAE that keeps people at strict recovery rate and bring a large margin for commercial banks. Most of the financing is done through credit and lease20. Domestic Liquidity increased from 399.3 bn Dirhams in 2006 to 565.7 bn Dirhams in 2007 (41.7% increase). Personal loans also increased by 29% by 2007. On 22nd September 2008, the UAE government decides to maintain emergency facility for banks, keeping a budget of Dh 50 million for banks operating in UAE.21 There are 49 commercial banks established in the UAE. This growth evidently shows the improvement in liquidity and increasing demand for financing that has come from large volumes of foreign population and investment. These are all non-oil investments because oil drilling and exporting are purely done by Government contractors. These implications lead to a stronger future for UAE. There is expected to be strong liquidity over the years, because it will be one of the few countries that will be recovering from recession earliest. In nearly 15 years from now, UAE will be offering one of the best financial solutions in terms of affordable cost of credit and having a large pool of investors collected from various countries around the world, owing to the country’s global popularity. Social Development UAE has put special emphasis on human development in terms of education, health facilities and recreation. Schools, universities, museums became one of the major investments within Dubai and Abu Dhabi especially22. This encouraged foreign families to settle with all basic necessities with leisure. UAE’s strategic plan for the next few years focuses on diversification and creating more opportunities for national through improved education and increased private sector employment23. The aim of the strategic plan is to help UAE some out of major dependency on oil and expatriates population. Dubai particularly has developed nightlife of its own, that involves shopping malls, eateries, the Dubai Shopping Festival24, and some key cultural events such as Camel Races and the Holy Month of Ramadan. Transport UAE has made heavy expenditure in its transit system that includes some major projects such as the Dubai Metro (or the Red Line) that runs from Dubai till the Abu Dhabi border25. The Palm residency also known as Palm Jumeirah has launched a monorail system that is available for public transport within the Dubai city. They have also launched a double-decker road transport to reduce congestion during heavy traffic hours and various air-conditioned bus services that commute around the country, including a women-only bus service for women commuting convenience26. Dubai so far has planned most advanced ways for transit facility to manage its traffic for the past 2 years. In 2008 UAE government has allotted a budget of Dh 80 million to fund for transport, in order to meet the growing population trend.27 Seeing the plan to launch the Dubai Metro and other advanced transport services, it can be predicted that UAE will be housing one of the most efficient and quick ways of travel in the next decade. Their concept is not to only rely on road transport but a more efficient means of rail, within the country. These means will so far manage to distribute traffic troubles in the coming years, as more investment is expected from the UAE government. Automobile Industry The automobile industry shows an indication of UAE’s thriving economy. The country boasts leverage of no taxes on imported cars and very low fuel prices. Due to huge influx of population from expatriates, there has been a significant rise in sale of automobiles and increase in spare parts. This January 2009, UAE became the leading country in sales (after Dubai and Beijing) for Rolls Royce, a super-luxury Swiss carmaker28. The UAE is still one of the best markets for automobiles as it offers of the lowest rates around the world and also inhabits of the richest cities. While UAE still maintains lower costs for oil, it is expected there will be increased investment towards alternative fuel much later in the future, because avoiding dependency on oil is one of the objectives for UAE’s future plans. Automobile Industry will continue to have a thriving market from most cities after 15 years as well. Education Education is coordinated by the ADEC (Abu Dhabi Educational Council) that ensures the standard of students and quality of education in schools. Recently it plans to open 30 new schools by 201129. Sharjah plans to build its own science district in the American University of Sharjah for the sole purpose of research30. Some American and British Universities have opened their campuses within UAE, including Duke University31. New establishments reflect the seriousness towards economic growth by strengthening the foundations of a society through education. Careful measures have been taken to continuous development of education at the early childhood phase, primary and secondary education. By the year 2007/2008 UAE now has 648,000 students enrolled in 1259 public and private schools, the government’s policy for guaranteeing free education till university has resulted to a literacy rate up to 93 per cent. Now the UAE has over 60 public and private universities. This ensures the policy to maintain compulsory education till the age of 18 remains consistent.32 It is expected that UAE will be perfecting its literacy rate, owing to free education and growing number of schools and universities. Also the introduction of its science society and improved communications base, the country will have better means of knowledge for research and education after 15 years. Health Services After the issuance of the mandatory health insurance system, even the private sector was encouraged to start their venture in hospitals and other health services. A growing number of hospitals are an evident reason of the importance the UAE government gives to health facilities. The government does a follow up performance of health services and clinics as locals take benefit of these necessities. UAE gives a reasonable contribution to the health sector; reflect by the high expenditure by the Ministry of Health33. The UAE is now ranked 43rd out of 174 industrial and developing countries in the latest UN Human Development Report. The public hospitals offer specialized services, including telemedicine links with major hospitals abroad and state-of-the art surgery. The health care infrastructure is upgraded regularly, with a central data base project being prepared. There are plans to double bed capacity in public hospitals over the next ten years. The Government finances 81 percent of the cost of health care, but several initiatives towards privatization have been launched recently along with the help of the private sector34. In 2008, the government healthcare facilities have reduced infant mortality to about 8 per thousand, and the average life expectancy rate is 77 years for men and 80 years for women.35 With this improving rate in health sector, UAE is expected to have nearly all available facilities for health for each emirates after 15 years. There will be a medical research center which will house one of qualified doctors and consultants from locals and around the world. Population and Employment UAE’s population has been increasing rapidly over the years. In 2006 it increased by 259 thousand people36. The growth of population is mostly due to immigration of expatriates. The population employment is mostly comprised of four sectors. The Construction sector alone employed 21% of the total workers in the country by 2007. The retail and wholesale trade sectors employs 20% of the worker population. Manufacturing industries employ 13% and the government sectors that mostly comprises of healthcare, social care, educational and municipal services employ 11% of the entire worker population. The worker population is 65% of the total population in UAE. The population and employment indicate the strong impost from expatriate population, which is mostly attracted due to business concerns or tourism. Owing to the friendly foreign policy of the UAE, this increasing trend further proves the argument that UAE is quickly diversifying its channels to revenue generation. Currently (2008) there are more than 3.1 million foreign workers working under contract from various local companies in the UAE. This is a major concern however, maintaining their rights and looking after their well-being has been a taken responsibility by the UAE government. While we analyze the growth of population and employment since 2006 till 2008, it is noticeably significant. The biggest reason is the influx of foreign population that settles in UAE. Expecting some counter-measures to avoid illegal immigrants and also chances of more investors coming from other countries, population is expected to grow twice as much in 15 years. The growth of population may compromise the country’s GDP and employment rates in the coming years. There is possible higher unemployment rate after 15 years, unless there is a strong move taken towards welfare of workers and growth of some major sectors. Tourism Industry UAE’s most marketed industry and strongly financed, supported by large real estate agencies and mega projects, the tourism industry has one of the most promising benefits for UAE’s future. Although 96% of the population follows Islam, there is much diversity in the country due to influx of expat population. Friendly foreign policy and recent economic developments ensure a culture that respects all religions in their capacities. It is expect however, most Islamic rules and culture is respected throughout the country. Drinks and even other un-Islamic facilities are available, but however discouraged and restricted in some time schedules and areas. Abu Dhabi being a more conservative yet equally prospering city preserves its traditions, culture and heritage through its tourism industry. Local customs and traditions are respected and informed well in public places. The Holy month of Ramadan is well arranged and celebrated with proper tradition. Abu Dhabi offers, Al Hosn Palace, Corniche Abu Dhabi, Cultural Foundation and Women’s craft center as some of the unique travel location in Abu Dhabi37. Dubai on the other hand has influence of much higher expat development, hence a more concentration of foreign culture than other emirates. There are various festivals that celebrate a variety of cultures. Dubai offers an annual Global Village and the Dubai Shopping Festival that includes shops and exhibitions from various countries showing a mix of culture shops in the occasion. This last for over a month, and happens every year. Dubai also markets its well known Desert Safari that comes with a variety of activities such as Camel riding, Buggy Ride and Hatta Trek. Apart from these unique tourist activities, they organize a city tour, shopping tour and tours to other emirates of the UAE38. The tourist package is organized for new tourists who would enjoy seeking a mix of such variety in culture and leisure options. There are many websites and almost all travel agencies offer Dubai as one of the top tourist locations around the globe. The same services also offer a corporate travel package that takes teams for a comprehensive travel39. As clearly evident it is, it shows how vibrantly this is marketed to attract tourism and indirectly bring business partners. Some key places that are currently preserving historic significance and heritage of the UAE is the Zayed Center for Heritage and History situated in Al Ain, Soude Historical Society in Riyadh and the Society of History and Archeology in GCC40. Tourism Industry is one of the thriving industries in the UAE, it is highly expected that it will attract more projects and economic development in the coming years. After 15 years more emirates other than Dubai will gain global recognition in terms of tourism and economic attractiveness for investors. Especially Abu Dhabi is aiming to improve itself popularity further through its own industry and strengths. Most large projects such as the Burj-ul-Arab, the Palm residency have been a major success in the last few years, which reflect a strong presence and prediction of more spending towards these projects as a long term goal. Airline Industry Dubai and Abu Dhabi have their own airline that functions from their capital. Recently established Etihad Airways belongs to Abu Dhabi, a national airliner that matches the standards of Emirates which is currently among the world’s top five airlines. UAE currently has 39 airports, while one of the largest airports in the world known as Al Maktoum in under construction. Emirates Airlines is owned by the Emirates Group that runs a set of businesses that operate for tourism, engineering and corporate services for travel41. Etihad Airways was launched by the Royal Decree of the UAE42. Approximated 40 million passengers used the Dubai International Airport in 2008. Airline industry strongly complements the tourism industry and economic development. After the introduction of Etihad Airways, it can be seen that there is much potential and growth in this industry. Also, there are even plans to build aircraft in the UAE for this industry, as a part of manufacturing sector.43 There is expected more airports to accommodate passengers in the coming years. After 15 years, there are expected to be more airlines and more investment in airports especially in Dubai and Abu Dhabi to maintain a strong international network and make most out of investment potential and welcoming grounds for foreign population. Manufacturing Industry The global financial crisis created a strong impact that mitigated that manufacturing industry. Yet in 2008 it still grew at a rate of 15 percent in the first three quarters of the year44. The biggest advantage the UAE has is its friendly foreign policy that invites new investors despite global pressures such as the financial recession. The increase in international investment has gathered enough cushion/financial liquidity and diverse portfolio that is expected to avoid potential damage from financial recession. UAE’s economy however is so globally dependent it suffered greatly from the credit crunch as some of the latest projects started abandoning, due to no security of debt. One of the best advantages of housing international free-zones is that they invite foreign brands into the market, including in manufacturing that has been contributing to local and regional trade45. TeknoTube Arabia46 is an international trade fair for machinery, tools and other metalwork, that created a platform for manufacturing sector contributing to a steady growth for 18 years. UAE’s manufacturing sectors shares 23 percent of the total non-oil production during 2001-2006 periods, during this time this sector grew by 55%47. In 2007 this further diversified, giving 12% of non-oil GDP to Manufacturing sector, 10% to retail and trade, Construction was 8%. Currently, Dh 29 billion has been investment into manufacturing projects which were about 1000 in number, during 2005-2009. This is one of the many indications that prove an inclination towards non-oil development throughout the country. Construction Industry UAE’s construction industry is one of the most thriving industries after oil extraction and export. Construction currently employs 21% of the entire UAE’s labor workforce, and about 200 projects are still underway and some nearing completion48. This is a crucial sector for UAE’s economic development as it brings value addition to the country’s real estate and projected growth. There are criticisms about human rights concerning labor in the UAE49; nevertheless this does bring more tourism and business to the country50. Despite global financial slowdown, there have only been 19 percent cancellations of projects this year, the UAE government is adamant over maintaining its image over economic growth and an attractive place for investors51. The construction industry receives the most merit in economic development and still receives a large budget for projects. Being on the strongest industries in UAE and a foundation for further developments, it is expected to only grow for the next 15 years and UAE is looking forward to many long term projects. It will also be comprising highest employment levels, hence most importance for at least the next decade. After 15 years, they is expected to be a slowdown, simply because economic boom is temporary and possibly may reach saturation for some period. Productive sectors (Services) and their increase in Growth52. Al Ain 2030 The UAE Government plans a master plan for Al Ain that consists of major developments that will make it the fourth largest city in the UAE. Precise details are not yet disclosed, but their objectives are very clear. This will be a city expansion in parallel to Abu Dhabi that involves a ground-up new infrastructure, rules and enhancing current transport and municipal industry. According to the Urban Planning Council, their objective is to design and enhance structures that can sustain social, environmental, cultural and economic aspects of the city. This city is projected t have an increase in population of about 20% by 2020, that means new developments will house another million people to inhabit in the city. The master plan will be implemented in three phases, firstly development through centering around the central district and key transit points, secondly a central transit corridor and finally the development of Emirati housing. The project is aimed to improve transport and bring environmental friendly development in terms of building, spacing of each project and creating awareness through education. Oasis will be receiving specialized treatment that will help it sustain along with the growing society. Al Ain Master plan also aims to build the city’s own tourist industry by offering its unique cultural heritage and lifestyle. The city will also be a knowledge center, supported by universities, world-leading museums, and other businesses.53 Hotels Industry Hotel Industry till 2007 grew at a strong rate, hence bringing increase in rents and room rates throughout the year. The increase is directly related to tourism and it is leading to construction to more new hotels in current period. There are a variety of hotels in existence currently with reasonably high occupancy rates.54 Each emirate advertises their own tourist hotels with different travel packages. Dubai hosts a large bunch of hotels involving Raffles Dubai, Burj Al Arab, Jumeirah Group Hotels, Monarch Dubai, Harbour Hotel and Residence, and more under construction. Burj Dubai is currently under construction and plans to be one of the tallest buildings in the world, with also luxury class hotels. In 2007 hotel occupancy rates in Abu Dhabi was 16%, which is marked as the highest growth in this sector worldwide. By 2015, it is expected that 3 million tourists will reach to UAE, which definitely leads to more planning for new hotels. Currently, there are 10,000 hotel rooms in all of UAE. It is expected to increase till 24,400.55 New projects and previous occupancy levels evidently show there is tremendous growth in this industry and is an attractive venture for investors. With more attractions being built in the coming years, it is expect that after 15 years, Dubai will be housing a large flow of tourists like any other tourist destination. This industry continues to grow as long as there will be other sectors, backing up their source of revenue. Which means new things to see for tourists every few years. conclusion After assessing various sectors which the United Arab Emirates intend to invest and improve, it clearly shows its move towards independence from oil reserves. This independence is seen necessary because it limits prosperity of a nation that has not made itself a diversified revenue generator when oil crisis is around the corner. While currently most sectors are being developed from the aid of oil revenues, I also see an increase in GDP through other means, successfully creating 64% of non-oil GDP in the country. Exploiting its commercial activities, tourist destinations and a variety of luxury for travelers it seems evident that UAE will continue to develop and make its recognition around the globe. Among all sectors we have the tourism sector and the construction sector that is participating most in annual GDP generation. Following sectors are airlines, manufacturing and traditional industries such as Dairy and Date Fruit. Owing to previous achievements of Dubai, UAE has become one of the most desirable locations for travel and business. Despite financial downturn I see a very prosperous future by judging its strategy to mend its infrastructure for a long term growth and building ability to be less dependent on oil. References & bibliography BBC News. Country Profile: United Arab Emirated. < Embassy of the United Arab Emirates>. —. "UAE to Grow Construction Unions." Business 30 March 2006. Billing, Soren. Arabian Business. . Camilla Hall, Ayesha Daya. "Abu Dhabi Plans to Reduce Oil Dependency as Part of GDP." Bloomberg. . CIA. "The World Fact Book." Centrail Intelligence Agency. . City Smart Tourism LLC. Dubai - Tours and Safari. . Energy Information Administration. EIA: Official Energy Statistics from teh U.S. Government. . Fenton, Suzanne. "Over 200 cosntruction projects on track in UAE." Gulf News 14 May 2009. Gimbel, Barney. "The richest city in the world." Fortune Hari, Johann. "The Dark Side of Dubai." The Independent. . Info-Prod Research. United Arab Emirates. . Mina Jabal Ali, Embassador of UAE, Washington. Library of Congress Study Studies. . Ministry of Economy. "United Arab Emirates." Economy Report. 2007. Reuters. "Gulf builds hotels worth $140 bln amid crisis-study." Daily Guardian 24 May 2009. "The Economy - Automobile Industry." UAE Interact. . UAE Interact. "Infrastructural Development - Transportation." UAE Interact. . —. Social Development - Education. . United Arab Emirates Yearbook . Trident Press Ltc., 2009. Read More