Rational Choices Inadequate in Explaining Foreign Policy Development - Coursework Example

Rational choices inadequate in explaining foreign policy development Contents Contents 2 Discussion 3 Rational choice model 3 Cuban Missile Crisis 4 Inadequacy of the model 4 Conclusion 8 References 9 Introduction The rational choice theory which is also known as the choice theory is a framework that is used in understanding and modelling behaviours of people in terms of social and economical. The fact on which the theory is based is that collective social behaviour results from the sum total of individual behaviour given the fact that each of them are making individual decisions. However in the modern era especially since the World War 2 the study of foreign policy in terms of rational choice has been undergoing lot of changes. After the occurrence of the World War 2 the thinking related to foreign policy matters has been mainly dominated by what can be called as realist or non realist perspective. The following essay in particular deals with the fact that models related to rational choices are inadequate in explaining the policies that are related foreign policy development. The essay is based on the analysis of Cuban Missile crisis in particular. The Cuban missile crisis was a particular point in the tussle between Russia and Cold war. It was a particular point in which both the parties had inadequate information and thus it was not possible to employ rational choices. This context is further explained and elucidated in the essay below. Discussion Rational choice model Rational choice theory is used for understanding social and economic behaviour of individual person or actor who makes individual decisions. This theory mainly focuses on choices of individual. This theory assumes that choices and preferences of individuals depend upon many alternatives. From the available choices a person selects an alternative which seems beneficial to him. The preferences of a person are assumed as transitive and complete. For selecting an alternatives it is assumed that rational agents considers available information, benefits and costs, profitability of the actions, etc (Lovett, 2006). All of these things facilitate a person in selecting the best alternative. Rational Choice Theory is an economic principle which assumes that a person makes logical decision that offer more satisfaction and benefits to him. The self interest of a person is fulfilled by this. Goals and preference of the individual plays a vital role in this theory. According to this theory social phenomenon influences the choices and preference of a person Cuban Missile Crisis Cuban Missile Crisis occurred in October 1962. In this crisis the two states, Soviet Union and U.S has a direct confrontation with each other. Cold War took place in between these two countries and they started fighting with each other with nuclear bomb. The construction sites of nuclear missile were discovered in Cuba by a spy plane. Those missiles could easily destroy U.S. With a small group of senior officers, President Kennedy debated on the crisis. The group of the debate was divided into two halves. One group of people wanted military solutions and another group wanted diplomatic solutions for removing the missiles. After some days the President of Cuba ordered naval blockade. The military force of U.S was prepared to dispatch polarised submarines. There was a huge tension between U.S and Soviet Union. On October 28, 1962 the crisis ended. Missiles were withdrawn from Cuba by U.S. Inadequacy of the model Rational choice model is basically considered to be dominant option in decision making process. Human behaviour is not appropriately analyzed with the help of rational choice model. Rational choice models fail to focus on interactions and its probable influence on utility calculations. To certain extent unrealistic assumptions are made by rational choice model. These assumptions are based on availability of information and capability of an individual to process obtained information. This kind of information processing plays a vital role in decision making procedure. On the other hand, bounded rationality indicates that an individual needs to act rationally in a given scenario and this eventually confines information availability. This takes into consideration limited time an individual possesses in order to undertake a decision with restricted base of resources. Cognitive limitations are also imposed n their minds when there exists such limitations. Optimal solution cannot be explored by an individual since they are undertaking a decision on limited resources and time. Satisfactory solution is focused on by an individual through this approach rather than an optimal solution. Other complex models mainly deal in assumptions taken to describe an outcome rather than being inclined towards knowing the expected outcome (Bjola and Kornprobst, 2013). Rational choice model tends to make over-simplified assumptions which often prove to be unrealistic. Individuals most of the times opt for acceptable option in comparison to optimal option. This aspect is observed when there are problems in evaluating selecting criteria. These inadequacies in rational choice model are also observed in case of foreign policy development. Rational choice theory is closely knitted with goal oriented action. There are choices analyzed by individuals in order to attain defined goal. The concept of bounded rationality is not applicable in context of foreign policy development. Incomplete information in formulation of foreign policy might prove to be an act of failure. Alternative course of actions cannot be identified by individuals due to lack of information. This in turn would lead to ineffective foreign policy decisions. Strategic interaction is another limitation of rational choice model. Actors involved might not be sure of other’s interests and this shall lead to total confusion. Suboptimal outcomes are framed through assumptions of rational choice model. As per rational choice model, states are considered to be unitary actors. In general context, national interests are reflected upon by leadership decision making process. Actions and objectives are regarded as inter-related concept. It is assumed that if an actor is aware about objective of an individual, one can judge future action. Foreign policy cannot be framed on the basis of such unrealistic assumption. Rational choice model is able to predict state actions to some extent, but even denotes that states treat others to perform rationally. Foreign policy actions such as Cuban Missile Crisis are one where inadequacies of rational model were clearly observed. The country is regarded as rational unitary actor in this case. This model assumes that decision taken during that time period was strategic, intended and value maximising. Explanation of the model in context of the chosen case is on the basis of governmental goal, rational choices undertaken and transforming choices into actions given objectives of a nation. Rational choice model proved to be inadequate in terms of explaining goals of Kennedy. Decision making process could not be enhanced with the availability of limited information. The approach of bounded rationality does not gain significance in this area since there is a central power who is undertaking all decisions. Rational decision making approach would be hindered because government did not have a clear understanding regarding opponent’s actions in Cuban Missile Crisis. A leader might possess supreme power but it cannot be assumed that one would even have power to understand action plan of opponent. In Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy and ExCom’s had failed to analyze why certain actions or decisions was undertaken by Khrushchev. Foreign policy arena cannot proclaim hidden thoughts or opinions. This policy framework ensures that opponents would secure a competitive position only when opinions are kept hidden. In this context, it is clearly evident that assumptions of rational choice model are inadequate while framing foreign policy (Brown, 2005). The rational model states that outcomes are firstly analyzed rather than focusing on options. However President Kennedy was focused on analyzing options and their implications. He even trained his team to reflect upon probable options. Kennedy did not go for any direct attack, kept alternatives open and influenced Khrushchev to undertake the next step. USSR withdrew upon recognizing strategic superiority of United States. Further actions were dependent on missile becoming operational in the region. The most essential model of rational choices is the model of rational choice given by Nash. This model was given by Nash in his 1950 article “The bargaining problem”. The basic assumption of the model is related to the fact there are defined parties involved in the conflict and they know that they are in conflict; they also know the different strategic options that are available to them and are also involved in evaluation of the situations to a stable level (Trott, 2013). The parties involved are trying to maximize their strategic payoffs in the conflict. The assumptions in the model related to the rational choices are what make it inadequate for application in several cases. The model also assumes that each of the party involved in the conflict have complete information about all the alternatives that exists. This is always not the case and hence it becomes difficult to apply the model in all cases. For example in the Cuban Missile crisis it was found that after Russia had started assembling their nuclear missiles in Cuba both the countries were not sure what will happen over the next period. It so happened that in this particular case that both the Russian head of the state and American president were unsure about what was going to happen in the days to come. They were not sure about decisions being made by their counterpart and the consequences that were to ensue. Hence they were also uncertain about the decisions that they should be taking. For nearly two weeks the President of the United States and well as the Russian head of the state discussed the issue and the diplomatic crisis that was at hand with the members of their respective executive committee. Another criticism of the rational choice model lies in the fact that it is a historical. That is to say that these models exclude the influence of the interactions of the moment in which the choices are made with the historical and social context. This is particular relevant to the Cuban missile crisis. This is due to the fact that Cuban missile crisis was not an independent event but was a part of a long ensuing crisis that was occurring in between the USSR and USA at that point of time. The missile crisis was not an independent event to be dealt with separately. The crisis had a background and the motive of USSR in placing the missiles in CUBA was guided by different objectives. One of the objectives was related to the fact that USA had increased the number of missiles that they were placing in Europe and Turkey which was all nuclear enabled and was directed towards Soviet Union. Another was the fact that USA had already invaded Cuba once and Russia did not want that USA would continue with the invasion. As a matter of fact Russia said that it was ready on withdrawing the missiles from CUBA on the context that USA would remove the missiles from Turkey that were directed towards USSR and USA would stop invading CUBA (History Channel, 2015). Thus the history is a very important fact in this crisis and it can clearly be said that any model which overlooks historical perspective fails. Conclusion This paper has highlighted the areas where Rational Choice Theory is inadequate in explaining the development of foreign policy. For this purpose Cuban Missile Crisis was explained in this essay for explaining this topic. The Rational choice theory was also discussed in this essay in details. This theory states that individual tends to select the option which offers more benefit to him. But this model or theory has many limitations for which human behaviours cannot be analysed in correct way. The limitations of this theory are explained by focusing on Cuban Missile Crisis. The essay highlights that this crisis took place in between U.S and Cuba which continued for a long period of time. Various criticisms regarding Rational Choice Theory were highlighted in this essay. The main focus of this theory is fulfilling goals of a person which is not at all applicable in the context of developing foreign policy. There are many other reasons discussed in this essay which show that rational choice theory is not suitable for foreign policy development. References Bjola, C. and Kornprobst, M., 2013. Understanding international diplomacy: theory, practice and ethics. New York: Routledge. Brown, R., 2005. Rational choice and judgment: decision analysis for the decider. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. History Channel., 2015. Cuban missile crisis. [Online]. Available at < http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/cuban-missile-crisis > [Accessed 27 June 2015]. Lovett, F., 2006. Rational choice theory and explanation. Rationality and Society, 18(2), pp. 237-272. Trott, W., 2013. Prospect Theory: Contributions to Understanding Actors, Causes and Consequences of Conflict in Africa. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 2(2), pp: 1-43. Read More