Business forecast - Assignment Example

Comments (0) Cite this document
Summary
Business Forecasting Report 1. Scrutiny for Seasonal Effects, Trends and Cycles Visual inspection of the unadjusted manufacturing sector investment in the UK from the first quarter of 1994 and on for the next 49 quarters makes it plain that: There is a long-term cycle that peaked at the end of 1998 and reached bottom in the first quarter of 2004…
Download full paperFile format: .doc, available for editing
GRAB THE BEST PAPER96.3% of users find it useful
Business forecast
Read TextPreview

Extract of sample "Business forecast"

Download file to see previous pages Figure 2: Seasonality Indices, Investment In turn, the polynomial line for cyclicality is shown below. Figure 3: Cyclical Nature of the Investment Data Series 2. Modifying Analysis with Dummy Variables Since seasonality is very pronounced, we first try fitting a regression line with the categorical variable for quarter coded as “1” for the first quarter, “2” for the second quarter, and so on. Such a model, we see from Table 1 below, would explain only about 20.4% of the total variation for UK manufacturing investment during the 50 months under review. Next, Table 2 shows that the ratio of mean variation explained by the regression to unexplained variation (or residual) error) is high enough that we can reject at ? < 0.005 the null hypothesis that such a ratio could be zero. Table 1: Model Summary for Dummy Variable Method and Linear Trend Cycle Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Change Statistics     R Square Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change 0.472 0.223 0.204 685.9345 0.222684 12.03206 1 42 0.001221 a. Predictors: (Constant), Dummy variable for period Table 2 ANOVAb for Overall Fit Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 5661157.641 1 5661157.641 12.032 .001a Residual 1.976E7 42 470506.123 Total 2.542E7 43 a. Predictors: (Constant), Dummy variable for period b. Dependent Variable: 50 Quarters We see then from Table 3 (overleaf) that the fitted line can be calculated (predicted) as: Ypredicted = 3616 + 320.83 (Quarter) Table 3: The Coefficients for the Bivariate Regression with Dummy Variable for Seasonality Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 3616.000 253.298 14.276 .000 Dummy variable for period 320.827 92.491 .472 3.469 .001 a. Dependent Variable: 50 Quarters Without accounting for the linear trend, a single dummy variable for season can only move around the overall mean. It inflates expectations beginning the first quarter of 2004 and all the way through to the holdback period of the last quarters in the data series. Figure 4: Predicted Y When Only Dummy Variable for Seasonality is Accounted For An exponential trend line (Fig. 5 overleaf) better matches the fact that the investment series is at the trough of a long-term cycle. This reduces the errors when predicting the near term, the eight quarters of the holdback period. Figure 5: The Exponential Trend Line Figure 6 (overleaf) now includes the estimate of cyclical impact with a quadratic, one-peak line. Given the coefficients reported in Table 5 overleaf, the fitted model is: Ypredicted = 3.66 - 0.0005 (Trend) + 0.72 (Cyclical) Table 4 below reports that this model explains nearly half (49%) of the total variance in manufacturing investment during the period. Table 4: Model Summary for Trend Line and Cyclical Component R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate Change Statistics R Square Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change 0.7169 0.5139 0.4932 570.1612 0.5139 24.8449 2 47 0.00000004 Figure 6: Accounting for the Cyclical Component: A Quadratic Line with One Peak Assumed Table 5: Coefficients for the Model Comprising Trend and Cyclical Components Coefficientsa Unstandar-dized Coefficients Standar-dized Coefficients t Sig. Std. Error Beta (Constant) 3.655649926 1038.629 0.00352 0.997207 Fit for Invest01 from CURVEFIT, MOD_8 ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
Cite this document
  • APA
  • MLA
  • CHICAGO
(“Business forecast Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words”, n.d.)
Retrieved from https://studentshare.org/health-sciences-medicine/1422144-business-forecast
(Business Forecast Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 Words)
https://studentshare.org/health-sciences-medicine/1422144-business-forecast.
“Business Forecast Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 Words”, n.d. https://studentshare.org/health-sciences-medicine/1422144-business-forecast.
  • Cited: 0 times
Comments (0)
Click to create a comment or rate a document

CHECK THESE SAMPLES OF Business forecast

Technology Forecast

...? Information Technology Forecast Introduction Since the introduction of information technology, human wayof life has changed dramatically. According to Myers (1998), the industry evolved from the first giant calculators that were digitally designed to process and operate figures and later long drawn out to digitize other heavily transaction-oriented events, for instance, airline misgivings. But up to 1980s, almost all the computer associated events rotated around interactions between two, namely, a computer and a human being (Myers 1998). Information technology seems to be growing into a top global industry and is said to continue growing at a rapid pace in the immediate future. This paper discusses the forecasted development... of...
5 Pages(1250 words)Assignment

Accounting Evaluation And Forecast

...for the business's operating needs. Thus, it is the final decision, than the company must apply a system of credit selection on each independent business unit, which allows only those 'credible' customers to have an account. The system could offer credit based on prior purchase frequency, company collateral, company reputation, company's purchase capacity, etc. Giving credit to just any company with a canteen could in the end result negative cash flow for the business unit. VIII. Forecasts Profit & Loss 2005 Forecast Accounts 1/1/2005 - 31/6/2005 1/7/2005 - 31/12/2005 2005 Sales 687,500.00 728,750.00 1,416,250.00 cost of...
9 Pages(2250 words)Essay

Macroeconomic forecast paper

...In order to compare the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by different s or organizations I used the indicators provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Economist Intelligence Unit, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the Federal Reserve, the Comerica Bank and the Bank of Montreal Financial Group. The national unemployment rate forecast by the CBO for 2005 is indicated at 5,2 % (n.d.,n.p.). For the 2006 and next few years in a row the figure stays the same. However, the Bank of Montreal Economics Department has a different perspective on the issue of unemployment dynamics: the decline of unemployment rate from 5,5% in 2005 (which is significantly higher than CBO's estimate)...
1 Pages(250 words)Essay

Economics Forecast Paper

...Interest rates & housing Interest Rates & Housing Industry Housing industry is the broader term that encompasses both residential and commercial building activity, which has been in the news recently, threatening the health of our national economy. The Federal Reserve Board (FED) is seized of the situation and the market expectation of softening interest rates is high. This paper aims to analyze and forecast the relationship between interest rates and housing industry across the United States in general and in the state of California in particular. Relation between interest rates and housing industry Interest rates and housing starts have an inverse relationship – declining interest rates and therefore cheaper loans, lead to jump... in...
2 Pages(500 words)Essay

UV Index Forecast

...September 2, UV Radiation As a response to the serious public health threat posed by exposure to UV rays, EPA works with schools and communities across the nation through the SunWise Program. SunWIse teaches students how to protect themselves from overexposure to the sun. The Environmental Protection Agencys website on the Sunrise Program at www.epa.gov/sunrise/uvindex.html gives students valuable information regarding UVs and the danger of sun exposure. It gives a forcast of UV Index for every city or town in the United States. The UV index Forecast for Colorado Springs, CO, 80918 had a forecast of level 3 (moderatel-to-low) on the UVA Index Scale. There are five categories for UV index, level 1-2...
1 Pages(250 words)Essay

Identify an up and coming or a new business, identify the strengths and weaknesses or challenges, and your forecast of the company's success

... Kelvin & Kevin Associates Inc. Kelvin & Kevin Associates Inc. is a new company in California, which importsdecorative household items. The company sells flatware, dinnerware, small household fixtures, knickknacks, picture frames, as well as linens for the households. The items are traded in from South America, Mexico, Africa and India. Initially the business owner had limited funds, and therefore, he established the firm with a family relative to establish a C Corporation. Establishing a C Corporation allows the owner to entice prospective investors to aid institute additional credit with lenders and vendors, and enlarge the company into other cities. The business will gain from a corporation since all profits, losses and taxes... ...
3 Pages(750 words)Research Paper

Technology Forecast

...Nueuromorphic Computing Nueuromorphic Computing The neuromorphic computing refers to a technology that has been developed by Scientist from the Freje University of Berlin, the Beratsain Center Berlin and the Heidelberg University. This new technology that is still being worked on by the scientists from the three above named institutions works on the basis of parallel data processing. With this new technology, the computational work is done by the neurons that are made using silicon technology (Schmuker, Pfeil &. Nawrot, 2014). The silicon neurons are put on a computer chip from where they are able to carry puts parallel data processing. In this prototype that was built by the scientists, the neurons are linked together in a way... Computing...
4 Pages(1000 words)Research Paper

Technology Forecast

...Technology Forecast: Neuromorphic Chips. Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Technology Review Journal listed neuromorphic chips in its list of top ten breakthrough technologies of the current decade (Hoff, 2014). According to the MIT journal, neuromorphic chips will be game changers in the electronic technology field because the traditional chips that are currently in use are fast reaching their performance limits. The traditional chips are forcing manufacturers to include more memory caches and transistors in their architecture designs and this requirement always inhibits the chips capabilities. It is for this reason that smart phone devices are ever power stingy. A Neuromorphic chip refers to minute microprocessors... Forecast:...
4 Pages(1000 words)Research Paper

Forecast Presentations

...Presentational Dilemma Business speakers don’t always have the luxury of complete confidence in the material they have to present. For instance, sales forecasts for new products are notoriously difficult to make because they depend on so many factors in the marketplace. If you were presenting a forecast that was the best available answer but not one that you had much confidence in, should you still follow the guidelines presented in your readings for appearing confident in front of your audience? Explain your answer. There is no second opinion in standing confident in front of the audience. There is more damage in standing hesitant or unsure than giving no presentation at all. If I face a...
1 Pages(250 words)Coursework

Forecast analysis

...Company and Industry Forecast Company Forecast and Industry Forecast Regression analysis Regression analysis for the forecasting of industry sales by market area is an important tool for prediction and comparison of values from the market areas selected. One can assess how variables correlate with one another. R2 The R2 computed ranged from 0.99998 to 0.99996, which gave approximately 99.99% indicated that the model explained the variability around the tested means at a higher confidence fit. The model is approximately 100% or 1, which showed a perfect fit between the variables tested. The R2 showed how the variables used (time, real GDP and average price) depended on...
2 Pages(500 words)Essay
sponsored ads
We use cookies to create the best experience for you. Keep on browsing if you are OK with that, or find out how to manage cookies.

Let us find you another Assignment on topic Business forecast for FREE!

Contact Us