Population Geography: Economic and Social Impacts Of Today and Tomorrow - Term Paper Example

___________ ID: _______ ID: _______ Population Geography: "Economic and Social Impacts Of Today and Tomorrow" Impact of Population on UK The UK possesses a population density of 252 persons per square km with varying population structure comprising males and females in different age groups between different regions. "UK population has grown 20 per cent since 1950. There are an estimated 60 million people living in the UK (mid-2005), and numbers are still rising. Population growth = natural increase (births minus deaths) + net migration, and migration also affects the number of births. UK population is now growing at an annual rate of 0.64%. At an annual growth rate of 0.4% a year our population would pass 200 million by 2310. Unless action is taken, population may grow by another 9 million to reach 69.2 million by 2050, and fail to peak until 2074" 1. Index Fig 1.1 Available from < UK Economic Outlook, March 2006 > Main Scenario for the UK Economy Fig 1.2 Available from < UK Economic Outlook, March 2006 > Alternative GDP Growth Scenarios Fig 1.3 Available from < UK Economic Outlook, March 2006 > Important Risks with respect to Population Housing Market on the domestic front "A sharp correction to the housing market could see a significant drop in consumer confidence and spending, which has been the principal driver of UK economic growth. The Index fell into negative territory in 2005 for the first time since 1998 and main scenario projections suggest that it might fall further in 2006 (Fig 1.1) However, recent evidence suggests a relatively soft landing for house prices and any correction seems unlikely to be as severe as in the early 1990s, which limits the risk of the Index falling as far as it did in that earlier period. Continued imbalances in the UK economy, with the service sector largely driving growth and manufacturing trailing behind, could eventually see the UK current account deficit widen to the point where it leads to a loss of confidence by overseas investors in holding UK assets, leading to exchange rate volatility and uncertainty that could be damaging to UK business. While a gradual, orderly decline in the value of the pound might be desirable from the perspective of UK exporters, a sharp unanticipated fall may not be, particularly as it would tend to push up inflation and interest rates. It has to be said, however, that the present level of the current account deficit, at only around 2% of GDP, does not appear to pose any great concerns" 2. Alternative UK Growth Scenarios Fig 1.4 Available from < UK Economic Outlook, March 2006 > Alternative Inflation Scenarios Available from < UK Economic Outlook, March 2006 > "At present UK economy with respect to increasing population has the following features: GDP growth picks up gradually from 1.8% in 2005 to around 2.25% in 2006 and around 2.75% in 2007; This GDP growth profile is associated with continued subdued consumer spending growth of around 2.25% in 2006 and 2007; Investment growth is expected to be a major driver of the recovery, picking up from an estimated 3.3% in 2005 to around 3.5% in 2006 and 5% in 2007; this reflects continued relatively strong public sector investment plans, combined with stronger business investment in response to generally healthy profit and cash flow profiles in the corporate sector and recent equity market strength; and Export growth is also projected to be relatively strong, averaging around 5.5% in 2006-7, as world trade growth is assumed to continue at a reasonably healthy rate; however, this is expected to be broadly matched by import growth, so that the contribution of net trade to overall GDP growth is projected to be broadly neutral in 2006 and 2007 (although this contrasts with the negative contribution made in years before 2005)" 3. UK Construction and Distribution Sector "The construction sector experienced a moderation in growth in 2005 as the earlier boom in the UK housing market came to an end. The main scenario is for growth in 2006 and 2007 in this sector to be close to the economy-wide average, implying a gradual pick-up over time. But, as Figure below, the sector's growth performance in 2006 would vary widely between the different scenarios. Public sector investment growth should remain relatively strong in 2006/7, but is likely to moderate in 2007/8 and later years" 4. Fig 1.5 Available from < UK Economic Outlook, March 2006 > "The distribution sector, which includes wholesale and retail trade, has suffered from the slowdown in consumer spending growth since mid-2004, but is expected to stabilise in 2006 and pick up in 2007 as the economic recovery proceeds in our main scenario. This sector is also relatively cyclical, however, so growth does vary significantly in the alternative growth scenarios" 5. "There are, however, likely to be notable shifts in relative growth rates within the E7 economies, driven in part by divergent demographic trends. In particular, both China and Russia are expected to experience significant declines in their working age populations between 2005 and 2050" 6. "Population ageing has put increasing strain on the UK pension system. Unlike many other OECD countries, there has not been the prospect of rapidly growing state spending on pensions. But past reforms have created their own problems, notably: A rise in means-testing (projected to apply to 70% of pensioners by 2050), bringing with it complexity and disincentives to private saving; A decline in the value of state pensions relative to earnings, without the anticipated increase in private provision; And gaps in state pension coverage, affecting especially women and those with caring responsibilities" 7. Depletion of Natural Resources "According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, the annual world catch of wild fish peaked at 76.8 million tons in 2000, falling to 72.5 million in 2003. One of the worst depleted stocks is that of North Sea Cod, now believed to be near collapse. Cod stocks have already collapsed in Newfoundland, due to over-fishing. Neither the UK government nor its fishing industry (both affected by EU quota policies) dealt with the problem when it began to emerge failing to recognise that immediate conservation was needed (to protect long-term supply), and that human overpopulation is part of the problem (demand). Unfettered free market laws of supply and demand suggest that if fish is priced out of existence, the price mechanism will ensure that other forms of food materialise to satisfy demand. So citizens of the UK have been exhorted to eat different types of fish, without acknowledging that this will deplete other fish stocks as is already happening with blue-fin tuna. As more people eat, more will deplete in a 'no fish' result. While conservation allows some biological resources to be regenerated, a pro-growth free market approach to resource use can cause irreversible depletion. Conventional economic tools appear unable to measure the effect of rapid degradation of marine life on the food chain or other parts of the biosphere, before the economic effects become clear by which time it may be too late to correct and may have catastrophic consequences" 8. Ageing and Unemployment in the UK "The problems caused by an ageing population (where the mean age is rising or the ratio of dependants to the workforce is increasing) are real but exaggerated, and insignificant, in OPT's view, compared with the costs of further population growth. (The population of the UK has already aged by a decade in less than 50 years.) Although official (ILO) employment figures show low unemployment, the rapid growth in the numbers of people on income support and incapacity benefit indicate high hidden unemployment. There has also recently been a large increase in public sector jobs in the UK: reforming the benefits system, simplifying administration and regulation and trimming public sector employment could increase the available UK workforce by up to three million people, which with improvements in productivity would provide a reserve resource in the event of falling population size. Other factors are often ignored by those who concentrate on the fear of ageing populations without studying the balancing positive economic effects of lower birth rates. For example, parents who have chosen to have small families may have saved more to support themselves in their old age than parents who have had large families" 9. Housing Prices in the UK "Since 1990 UK population has grown by more than two million people, and is now increasing at record levels. At the current household size of about 2.25 people per home, the last decade of population growth alone would account for demand for more than 500,000 new homes. Many other factors contribute to rising house prices. Yet some analysts continue to neglect the impact of population growth on housing demand and the perceived 'need' for more than a million more homes to be built in Britain. This additional 'need' might not have occurred if population stabilisation and reduction policies had been put in place a decade ago. At current rates of population growth the UK will soon become the most densely populated country in Europe, with severe consequences for environmental sustainability and our quality of life. OPT calculations show that currently projected population growth without allowing for rates of household formation which take in the trend for each home to accommodate fewer people would involve the building of the equivalent of 57 towns the size of Luton within six decades" 10. Migration - The main component of population growth "Migration is one of the two major components of population growth (annual population change = natural change + net migration.) The other is natural increase in birth rate. The arguments against excess immigration would apply similarly but with a generational delay if the government were to call on its citizens to raise the birth rate for economic reasons. In the UK migration is now the main determinant of population growth. The Government Actuary's Department has forecast that if the effect of surplus immigration on the number of births is taken into account, migration will account for more than 80% of future population growth" 11. China - Importance of Migration in Urbanization "The importance of migration as a component of rural and urban population change is attested to by the magnitude of the number of persons involved. The World Bank has estimated that between 1950 and 1975, some 330 million persons, a number greater than the total urban population in 1950 shifted residence from rural to urban places. Yet these estimates encompass only a portion of all population movement: not only are they net statistics, but also they exclude temporary migrants as well as moves within rural areas and between urban places. Migration, excluding the births attributable to migrant parents, has come to account for about 40 per cent of all LDC urban growth. Its importance in accounting for differential rates of growth and for the composition of urban and rural places seems likely to increase as LDC fertility is brought increasingly under control" 12. "Urbanization is a historic transformation process by which the means of production and people's lifestyles evolve from the country to the city. While this process is often characterized as farmers' migration to cities and the continuing development of cities, the process is in fact far more complex. Considering the rapid economic growth in China, some experts and scholars have maintained that urbanization in China lags far behind that of developed nations in Europe and America and it is imperative for China to catch up with this process within the next 30 years. As a result, the Chinese government is permitting farmers move to cities and has instituted various measures to accelerate the urbanization process" 13. Causes of Rapid Urbanisation Limited Employment Opportunities Urbanization and industrialization go hand in hand depending upon each other so "the development of urbanization and industrialization are inseparable, and the urbanization levels of industrialized counties are usually higher. On the one hand, industrialization pushes the development of urbanization. On the other hand, urbanization also boosts the development of industrialization. China's entrance into WTO has had a new round of impacts on traditional Chinese industries, and as a result, many workers will lose their jobs. This shock will last for 5-10 years. All of these factors impede the employment of farmers in cities" 14. Blind Expansion of Cities "During a Chinese construction conference on January 13, 2004, Guangtao Wang, the minister of construction, pointed out that there are several problems in today's city development in China which were: Blind city expansions have intensified. Symbolic projects are prevalent. The construction of environmental and sanitary systems lags behind what is needed. Cities lack guidance on small-city development and special regulations, blindly imitating the patterns of others" 15. Social Security and Stability "Stability means so much to China's 1.3 billion people that the Chinese government has stressed many times that social stability ranks number one on its agenda. However, uncontrolled urbanization causes many farmers to flock to cities in a short period, which not only imposes pressures on city infrastructures, but also causes potential social problems. If the newly immigrated "city citizens" do not have a proper education or cannot find jobs, they may be more likely to commit crimes" 16. Analysis of Symptoms leading to Urbanisation Blind application of urbanization theories from developed countries. No doubt theories on the relations between urbanization and industrialization, GDP and industrial structures are of valuable importance but that does not mean to implement them out of context. "The populations in developed countries and their industrialization levels are quite different from the current situation in China" 17. The Chinese government has few unified instructions. "China does not have a ministry or special government agency in charge of urbanization research and promotion, and the country lacks coordination among areas and collaboration among agencies. In its '10th Five-Year' and the most recent '11th Five-Year' government plans, there are no specific instructions on how local governments can adapt their urbanization plans to specific economic and regional conditions" 18. Local government officials are short sighted and motivated by their own interests In this respect 'show-off projects' also contribute towards the causes of urbanisation as local government officials often initiate such projects in order to achieve their political tasks in their own benefit, in this way they serve a proof to obtain higher government positions. The result is nothing but economic loss of funds from critical projects to 'show-off' city expansions. Solution to Rapid Urbanisation The following approaches can be adopted in order to avoid urbanisation to some extent. Enhance urbanization research and monitoring: "The Chinese government should assign a specific government agency to encourage experts to perform urbanisation research. They need to consider both China's economic and industrial conditions, and the uneven development among different areas. Not only should the global economic situation and its implications for China be examined, but also the speed of urbanization should be adjusted according changes in the stages of China's development. For instance, the rate of urbanization should increase moderately and steadily for the next 5-10 years" 19. Development of small Cities and Towns: Developing small cities is an ideal path to control urbanization in country like China. "Without any investments from the Chinese government, the township enterprises (TE) have grown very fast over the past 20 years, accompanied by the development of small cities. TEs have hired more than 100 million employees and account for half of the national industrial output. Small cities serve as an ideal stepping-stone for the Chinese farmers who wish to leave their traditional agricultural lives for the market economy, and also the perfect transition from rural areas to the city" 20. Set up mechanisms to facilitate the education of the farmers residing in cities. "Establish education programs to teach farmers about urbanization and help them develop work skills, so that they can adapt more quickly to city life and find jobs more easily. In addition, a system to track their situation in the city would help them to settle down" 21. Find ways to export Chinese labour to work internationally This would enable farmers towards economical and financial betterment and support. Policies Government have introduced to manage Population Change "Population ramifications are practical and theoretical, harmful and beneficial therefore the growth of population may be regarded as either a contributor or an obstacle to economic and social betterment" 22. "The problem facing its now affluent societies is how to arrest the decline in their birth rates; countries that once encouraged people to have fewer children are now begging them, often with tax incentives, to have more. Even China, with its immense population, is a far more complicated case than the experts care to admit. In booming Canton, a province of 66 million, the opening to markets has brought about a labour shortage, to the point where Canton has had to import some 10 million workers from other provinces. To put that in perspective, it means that a province with the population of the Philippines has in the course of 15 years of market reforms created work not only for its own entire people but also for another cohort equal to the working population of Malaysia. As a whole, China will continue to have an excess supply of labour until the rest of the country opens up as well. But if these reforms do in fact continue, it may be a very different story two decades from now" 23. China's One Child Policy One of the more extreme measures taken in an attempt to control population has been China's one-child policy. "China's one-child policy was designed not just to reduce population quantity, but also to produce a generation of "quality" Chinese to lead the nation in its quest to become a wealthy, powerful force on the world stage" 24. "Following the consolidation of politically power by the Communists in China, the nation's population exploded. Annual population growth exceeded 2 percent for most years between 1949 and 1974. Beginning in the mid-1970s, however, China abruptly shifted gears and fertility declined dramatically. The annual population growth rate has remained around 1.5 percent since the mid-1970s" 25. Singapore Population Control Policies Since 1960's Singapore Government has tried on every aspect to manage population control through publicity, advertisements and by giving different incentives. "In the late 1960s and through the 1970s, Singapore enacted legislation penalizing large families. These disincentives included charging delivery fees in government hospitals for the third and subsequent children (the first two births were free), removing large families from the priority list for government housing, and denying choice of schools to third and subsequent children. The laws also provided rewards to small families" 26. When well-to-do women took advantage of the incentives and poor women did not, Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew reversed the policy and offered incentives to well-educated, wealthier women to have children" 27. "In the atmosphere of crisis after the 1965 separation from Malaysia, the government in 1966 established the Family Planning and Population Board, which was responsible for providing clinical services and public education on family planning" 28. The results were fruitful as the efforts caused the birth rates to "fall from 1957 to 1970, but then began to rise as women of the post-war baby boom reached child-bearing years. The government responded with policies intended to further reduce the birth rate. Abortion and voluntary sterilization were legalized in 1970. Between 1969 and 1972, a set of policies known as 'population disincentives' were instituted to raise the costs of bearing third, fourth, and subsequent children" 29. "Critics from the other side argue that no possible interest in controlling population is strong enough to justify violating women's bodily integrity, and that history shows that women have borne the harsh brunt of population control policies. This position is perhaps best expressed in Women's Voices '94: Women's Declaration on Population Policies, which was prepared for the 1994 Cairo conference by a coalition of representatives of women's organizations in developing countries"30 . "Population policies must be based on the principle of respect for the sexual and bodily integrity of girls and women. Women have the individual right and the social responsibility to decide whether, how, and when to have children and how many to have . The fundamental sexual and reproductive rights of women cannot be subordinated, against a woman's will, to the interests of partners, family members, ethnic groups, religious institutions, health providers, researchers, policymakers, the state, or any other actors" 31. Work Cited Day H. Lincoln, 1994. "Migration and Urbanization in China". Ma Xia. Publisher: M. E. Sharpe. Place of Publication: Armonk, NY. Greenhalgh Susan, 2004. "Vanessa L. Fong: Only Hope Coming of Age under China's One- Child Policy" in "Population and Development Review". Vol: 30: 3. Page Number: 556+. COPYRIGHT 2004 International Women's Health Coalition (IWHC). 1993. Women's Voices '94: Women's Declaration on Population Policies. New York: IWHC. Isaacs L. Stephen, 1995. "Incentives, Population Policy, and Reproductive Rights: Ethical Issues" in "Studies in Family Planning". Vol: 26: 6. Page Number: 363+. COPYRIGHT 1995 Population Council, Inc McGurn William, September 12, 1994. "The Population Problem: The Pope Undermines the Case against Population Control by Accepting Leftist Economic Assumptions" in "National Review". Vol: 46:17. Page Number: 64+. COPYRIGHT 1994 National Review, Inc. Pensions Policy in the UK, March 17, 2006. Accessed from < http://whystudyeconomics.ac.uk/blog/ > The Global Economy, UK Population < http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.more.economy.html > Thomlinson Ralph, 1967. "Demographic Problems: Controversy over Population Control": Dickenson Publishing. Place of Publication: Belmont, CA. UK Economic Outlook, March2006 Accessed from < www.friendsfirst.ie/artman/ uploads/outlook_march_2006_screen.pdf > Wee, K. 1979. "Legal aspects of population policies". In Public Policy and Population Change in Singapore. Eds. P. Chen and J. Fawcett. New York: The Population Council. Wen Guoming, "Caution on China's Urbanization": The Maurine and Mike Mansfield Foundation. Accessed from < www.mansfieldfdn.org/pubs/ pub_pdfs/wen0105_chinaurban.pdf > < http://reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/singapore/singapore41.html > < http://www.overpopulation.com/faq/Population_Control/one_child.html > Read More