Report and Analysis - Book Report/Review Example

Galton’s hobby was measurement. He wanted to count whenever and wherever he could. He measured arms, noses, legs, heights and weights. He made so many people wonder when he was teaching in his lectures. He is the man who classified the variations of attractiveness of women he met when he was walking on a street. According to his “beauty map”, London women were top as Aberdeen girls were at the far bottom. He is also in record for examining close to 10,000 judges verdicts which, according to him, happened at intervals of 3,9,12,15,18 and 24 years.

Interestingly, none of the judgments hit the 17 year interval. Regression provides many systems for making decisions. This is based on the philosophical underpinnings thereto. It tries to point out that in life, a time comes when the small become too small and the same applies to the large. The trees, have also never hit the sky, as much as they grow. Therefore, when we get into temptation, as it mostly happens, to extrapolate events of the past to those of the future, we should have in mind the peapods of Galton.

However, if the regression to the mean assumes such a consistent pattern, then why is it frustrating the case with forecasting? Why can’t our case be like that of the dealings of Joseph and the Pharaoh? This is so because forces at work in the human psyche and those in work sites are different. Forecasting is something that is decided by a human being, not nature. With all its vagaries, nature is reliable that a small number of people trying to guess about something. In most things we normally do, we focus on probability and measurement.

The case is true if the principles of Bernoulli, Pascal’s Triangle, and Bayes’ table are anything to go by. We tend to base everything on the aspect of measurement. When we do all these, what risk do we put on ourselves? Do we get relevant information really? In precision, how can