Critical Analysis of the Trends in Vehicle Miles Traveled - Term Paper Example

Critical Analysis of the Trends in Vehicle Miles Traveled How reasonable are these arguments? What are the most important opposing factors that would drive a continued increase in VMT? Given both sets of factors, is the long-term trend of U.S. VMT increases likely to be stopped or reversed over the next decade? In supporting your arguments please be as quantitative as the current state-of-knowledge allows. The stipulated factors are reliable because they represent the broader perspective of the context factors. The context factors act as Vehicle Mile Travelled (VTM) growth drivers. They include legal/political climate, family structure, social/cultural conditions and technological, economical and institutional structure of the American society. The discussion provided for the impact of the outlined factors is one-sided. Most of factors such as decentralization of companies can have either effect. Travel requirements decreases as a person ages due to the decrease in the activity level and decrease in work related travels. Contrary to the earlier arguments, the aging factor does not increase or reduce the VMT. This is because the decreased levels caused by the aging population are countered by the increasing travel levels caused by the maturing young adults. However, the improved health, wealth and higher licensing rates for the elder women have curtailed the reduction in the rates of mobility for the older generation. The argument on the aging factor overlooked the impact of the economic growth on the VMT. This reduces the rate of VMT. Changes in the nature of work will reduce VMT because most of the employment agencies and individuals are applying the use of computer technology to enhance production. Most of the workers can work from home and avoid travelling to their work places. Most institutions of higher learning are also leaning towards introducing online lessons. This will reduce the travel requirements for most students. Decentralization of companies to rural areas can also contribute into the reduction in the VMT because companies may be located near the workforce thus, negating the travel necessity. Finished goods will be brought near retailers and consumers negating the necessity of travelling over long distance to acquire them. The impact of the aging population is reasonable because the travelling tendency of a person is dependent on the activity level. The travel frequency increases as a person matures to middle age. Children may not directly produce VMT but they increase the travel demands for their parents. The middle aged adults would directly increase the VMT as they are in the peak levels of the work related travel. It is notable that the prevalence of dispersed suburban environments and more working parents have made many teenagers rely on auto-travel to and from school. The rise in the fuel prices will generally lead to the reduction in the VMT. However, changes will be insignificant because most people are forced to drive to and from work regardless of the oil prices. Stabilization of workforce participation rates may have either impacts i.e. it can reduce or increase VMT. The increase of women workforce may lead to the increase in the need for travel. However, the rate may still reduce because the involvement of women does not signify an addition in the work force. They just fill the vacancies that would have been filled by anyone, meaning that the number of the workforce is preserved as well as their travel needs. The impact of most of the outlined factors is dependent on the changes in other factors. For instance, changes in the increase in the cost of driving may increase VMT in case of the future growth in the economy and income levels (Ewing 2007). Changes in manufacturing and distribution and trends in the cost of real property are the two opposing factors that can lead to increase in VMT. The decentralization of industries due to the enhancement of new manufacturing strategies leads to the increase in travel needs among the working population. Although the decrease in the cost of real property may be lowered, the decentralized industries will increase the worker’s transportation needs. The reduction in the cost of housing within cities will attract people who will be disadvantaged by the decentralization of many companies away from the cities. This leads to increased and prolonged need for travel thus increasing VMT. According to Puentes (2008), the Southeastern and intermountain west states witnessed a high growth in driving in 1991 no 2006 due to decentralization of industries. The Northeastern, pacific and the Great Lakes states grew at a slower pace. However, the recession and the drastic rise in the pump price led to a decline in VMT in 2008. According to Wall Street Journal, the number of miles covered by Americans increased by 151% annually from 1977 to 2001 (White, 2008). However, the VMT reduced from 2007 to 2008 because of the onset of the economic recession and price increment of the gas fuel. Although the transport necessity for the future might not increase or decrease significantly, the demand will be increasingly diverse. This indicates that economic change is the most prominent factor that will determine the direction of VMT in the next decade. The impact of the outlined factors is not intense and leads to prolonged changes in VMT. The sharp decline is due to the effect of economic and government policies. This implies that the notable changes in VMT will be determined by the economic conditions and changes in the government policies in the future. Are there other factors that may influence your argument? If so, what are these factors? Other factors influencing this argument include the government policies on climate and international trade as well as economic stability. The federal government may impose legislative policies that will also determine the trend of VMT. For instance, the global climate change has forced the policy makers to apply measures meant to curtail VMT (Frank and Chapman, 2004). Such measures include limiting sprawl and reducing the funding for highway expansion (Colonna, 2009). However, amid the effect of the fuel prices and the current recession, the reduction in VMT should be enhanced. Some of the advantages of reduction include curtailing the transportation finance, reducing the environmental pollution and ensuring balanced developmental patterns. The differences in the developmental level of the states contribute to the variation in VMT Trend. Based on your answers to the above questions, what are the most important research needs in this area and how should this research be conducted? Based on these needs, design a research program to address these most important needs. Your discussion should emphasize the methods and approaches to be used in this research as well as any needs for long-term data collection. The most important research area includes the impacts of the changing trends on VTM. The research should focus on economic and demographic trends on transport demands and their effects on the government budget planning. The current travel should involve more efficient means such as self driving automobiles, flying cars or jetpacks. The research will involve the analysis of the factors that affect the travel demand. Some of the trends that will be considered include: Transportation Infrastructure These include analysis of number and the status of the airports, highways and containerized freight systems. Secondary research will be carried out to ascertain the trend of the infrastructural factors and their effect to changes in the VTM within the United States. Vehicle Ownership This will involve the analysis of the per capita vehicle ownership in United States to ascertain the contribution of the private motor vehicle ownership to changes in the VTM. Vehicle Travel Information on the changes in vehicle travel will be outsourced from literary materials to identify changes in the travel among Americans. This will ensure that the recommendations of this research project will not conflict with travel improvement already applied. The analysis of this aspect of the research will involve data on the number of the teens possessing travel licenses and the variation in the use of public and private means among other information. The research will entail the analysis of the factors that affect travel demand. The focus will be on those factors that affects the vehicle ownership and use. They include: Demographics The data related to demographics will assist in ascertaining the effect of population changes and distribution on the economic changes and travel needs. The information will be outsourced from the national census reports. Demographic information will assist in determining the impacts of aging on VTM and the worker population. Income Information on income changes will be outsourced from government reports on the economic status of the population. Income levels will assist in identifying the transport means used by different people depending on their economic strengths. The number of the working population will assist in ascertaining the number of workforce with travel needs. Vehicle Costs and Affordability The information on vehicle cost will help in ascertaining the vehicle affordability of the population depending on the varying prices of motor vehicles in the market. The information related to this aspect can be used to determine the role of economic changes on vehicle ownership. Travel Speeds This factor affects per capita mileage. The required information is related to population adherence to the average travel speeds allowed by the ministry of transport. Land Use Development Programs This factor involves the analysis of the settlement patterns as most people would be located in more accessible regions that require minimal use of motor vehicle travel. The goal is to encourage people to relocate to automobile-independent regions. New Technologies The focus on the impact of new technologies will involve the analysis technological effects on speed, safety, reliability, comfort and power of the automobiles. The impacts of technologies on VTM include increased in motorized travel, mixed mobility impacts and reduction in the motorized travel. Implications to Planning The results for the analysis of the outlined factors will offer guidelines on the variation in the VTM. This would assist the government in planning for infrastructural development for the future. References Colonna, P. (2009). “Mobility and Transport for Our Tomorrow Roads,” European Roads Review, 14, 44-53; Ewing, R. (2007). Growing cooler: The evidence on urban development and climate change. Chicago: Urban Land Institute. Frank, L., & Chapman, J. (2004). Integrating travel behavior and urban form data to address Transportation and air quality problems in Atlanta. Prepared for the Georgia Department of Transportation Georgia Regional Transportation Authority. Puentes, R., & Tomer, A. (2008). The road less traveled: An analysis of vehicle miles traveled trends in the U.S. Brookings Institute. December 16. White, J. B. (2008). The Next Car Debate: Total Miles Driven. The Wall Street Journal, February 5. Read More