UAE and the Aluminium Industry in the GCC - Example

UAE and the Aluminium Industry in the GCC Introduction: The Aluminium Industry in General The global demand for aluminium is on a steady increase as developing countries such as India and China fuel the demand for the commodity in various industries. Estimates for 2005 indicate that the global demand for aluminium will probably stabilise at 41 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in the year 2019 (Grady & Prebble, 2005). By the time the estimates were done in 2005, the global aluminium production levels were estimated to be at 28 million tonnes per annum (Grady & Prebble, 2005). Throughout the world, aluminium is now treated as an essential metal, which is indispensable in the construction, transportation, retail packaging and other related industries (Oxford Business Group, 2011). The history of aluminium production in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region can be traced back to the late 1960s when the GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman) realised they had a competitive advantage over other countries due to the plentiful energy resources (Oxford Business Group, 2011). This realisation came to the fore as it emerged that 30% of all costs associated with aluminium production were related to energy. With their access to plentiful natural gas and other competitively priced energy sources, the GCC countries made aluminium production a focal point of their respective diversification projects (Oxford Business Group, 2011). In addition to producing aluminium for export to other countries, the GCC countries are also major consumers of the product. For example, 45 percent of all demand for extruded aluminium products produced in the region is from Saudi Arabia, while the UAE represents a 28% demand of the same. Qatar is at third position representing 15% of the total demand. To boost aluminium production in order to serve the export markets, the GCC countries have embarked on the expansion of the aluminium industry, with a new aluminium smelting facility expected to have an annual capacity of 585,000 tonnes this year (2012), hence making the facility the largest aluminium smelter globally (Oxford Business Group, 2011). Aluminium demand compared to other metals While there are various metals that serve as substitutes to aluminium, most of them lack the versatility or the cost advantage that makes aluminium such as sought-after product. Zinc and copper are mainly the two metals that can substitute aluminium, but their rising prices make them less viable for the construction, transportation and power sectors. Demand for aluminium is especially fuelled by the Chinese economy, which consumes ¼ of the entire global production of the commodity (UC Rusal, 2012). Although China has major aluminium production capacities, the country is yet to attain self sufficiency, hence raising the demand in UAE and other aluminium producing countries. Before the earthquake that hit Japan in 2011, the latter used to cater for approximately 27% of China’s aluminium demand (Deloitte 2011). Following the earthquake and the interruption of power plants due to the threat posed on nuclear plants, Japan has not been able to provide China with as much aluminium, hence creating room for other producers to cater for the deficit (Deloitte, 2011). According to UAE Interact (2006) East Asian countries account for 50 percent of all exports from UAE, while Europe and the Middle East’s demand for the commodity is estimated to be slightly above 20 percent. Compared to other non-ferrous metals, the demand for aluminium is at an all-time high as indicated in the figure below. Forecasts indicate that the demand for aluminium will outpace other metals as shown in the figure below where Nickel’s demand is relatively lower compared to aluminium. Going by LME statistics (Cited by Morris, 2012), nickel will be the second highly demanded non-ferrous metal by 2015, followed by lead, zinc, copper and tin in that order. Figure 1: Past, present and projected future demand for different non-ferrous metals Source: Morris (2012) Supply and Demand growth According to Morris (2012), the Middle East, and especially the GCC countries will drive most of the growth in the supply of aluminium in the coming years (i.e. up to approximately 2020). This position is indicated by recent trends, which have seen stagnation in the production of aluminium in the American continent, and some smelters closing down facilities especially in Europe. A case in point is Lynemouth - a UK aluminium smelter which announced the closure of its operations in 2012 (Morris, 2012). Further estimates indicate that the Middle East (i.e. GCC countries and Egypt) will be responsible for nearly a fifth of the global aluminium supply by the year 2020 (Morris, 2012). In the same period, the greatest demand for aluminium will be generated by the developing countries especially India and China. Notably, while China will have attained self-sufficiency (given the expanding production capacity) by 2015, India, which is equally potent in the production of aluminium, is producing below its potential. A market survey by Selvakumar (2009) indicates that India’s capacity is limited by the high energy prices. As indicated elsewhere, energy costs account for nearly 30 percent of the aluminium production costs and hence only countries that have sufficient and cheap energy sources can be able to sustain the aluminium production business. As a developing country, India will therefore act as a key demand market for GCC-produced aluminium. In regard to China, Visiongain (2012) observes that the high aluminium production costs, coupled with government restrictions on electricity usage may open new demand possibilities in the GCC region. Since China’s estimated self-sufficiency is not a certainty, there is a possibility that the GCC countries could benefit from increased demand especially as the country (China) experiences a boom in its infrastructure and residential construction markets hence increasing the use of aluminium (Visiongain, 2012). Demand for aluminium in the developed economies is also estimated to continue as the metal becomes a core component in most industries. However, and despite the fact that there were production cuts prompted by the 2008/09 economic crisis, Levitt (2012) observes that the supply of aluminium in the global market will still outweigh demand by about 800000 metric tonnes in 2012 alone. Like everything trading in the free market, the abundant supply of aluminium may serve to stabilise prices at least in the short term. Aluminium price forecast In the short term, prices are likely to remain low as the world recovers from the 2008/09 economic crisis. As indicated by the AME Group (2012), the economic crisis has affected the main industries that consume aluminium namely the construction industry and the machinery/motor vehicle manufacturing industries. The low demand has led to a slump in the prices with industry estimates indicating that the prices may go as low as $1,900 per tonne of aluminium. The low prices have already forced some aluminium producers to cut production, with the likes of Rio Tinto cutting production by two thirds (The AME Group, 2012). By the end of April 2012, the London Metal Exchange (LME) price of aluminium was at $2257/tonne (The AME Group, 2012). This was the highest level since September 2011. The $2257/tonne price is close to the estimates offered by Credit Cruisse earlier in the year, where the company had projected that a tonne of aluminium would be selling at $2425. Overall, and as the main aluminium consuming economies recover from the recessionary economic times, demand for the commodity will rise and the prices will go above the $2500/tonne price. In the short term however, and buoyed by the precautionary approach that most economies and industries have taken, prices are likely to stabilise around the $2300/tonne prices as had been predicted by Credit Cruisse (Anjum, 2012). Some sentiments have however been expressed arguing that the prices will not go above $2275/tonne in 2012, and that $2350/tonne should be expected as the average price in 2013 (Harbour Aluminium, 2012). Similar sentiments were expressed by Visiongain (2012) indicating that aluminium prices will probably remain constant at below $2,400 /tonne in 2012. UAE and the aluminium business Based on the aluminium production capacity expansion undertaken by the UAE in the recent past, it is rather obvious that the country is strategically positioning itself as a major aluminium producer among the GCC countries and the world at large. The expansion not withstanding, it is worth noting that Dubal and Alba (both in the GCC) feature as a major aluminium producers globally (see figure 2). This means that UAE has already positioned itself as a major aluminium producing country. GCG (2008) identifies the new aluminium production projects as: DIC aluminium glass factory (no official production estimates); Emirates Aluminium Smelter (EMAL) (estimated to 1.4 million tonnes); Nova Aluminium Processing plant (estimated to producer 135,000 tonnes); and Ruwais Aluminium Smelter (estimated to produce 550,000 tonnes). Combined, the estimated production in the UAE once all the new projects are fully operational will be in the excess of 2 million tonnes of aluminium production per year. Currently, Dubal alone produces 872 million tonnes annually and is thus ranked as the 7th largest aluminium producer in the world (UC Rusal, 2012). Figure 2: The Big ten aluminum producers in the world Source: http://aluminiumleader.com/en/serious/industry/ GCC countries’ future on aluminium compared to other countries Although this paper has so far established that the GCC has strategically positioned itself as a key aluminium production region for the future, there are no indications of whether the region will face stiff competition from other countries going forward. According to a report published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2010), different economic regions project an increase in the production of aluminium in the short term. Africa is for example estimated to produce 2.8 million tonnes and 2.9 million tonnes in 2013 and 2015 respectively. However, these estimates are subject to economic conditions in the regions. Table 1 below shows estimates presented by OECD in 2010. Table 1: Economic production estimates by region Source: OECD (2010). The Middle East region as indicated a in the figure 3 above is inclusive of the 6 GCC countries, Egypt and Iran. Increasing production in the Middle East will surpass increases in the Europe and Eurasia and Africa, and will only be surpassed by production in Asia and the Americas according to the OECD (2010) statistics. The increase in production in Asia will mostly be fuelled by the production in China as discussed elsewhere in this paper. Having stated that the increased expansion of aluminium production capacities is dependent on the economic conditions of the regions, several factors indicate that the Middle East (and especially the GCC countries) are the most likely to meet the expected production estimates. First, the GCC countries have ready capital which they are investing in the aluminium production business as portrayed by in table 1. In comparison, Africa, though laden with potential is not economically or politically stable and this may jeopardise its probability of meeting the estimates as indicated by OECD in table 1. Additionally, Europe is still cash strapped as a result of the 2008/09 economic recession and this may affect its willingness to invest in new aluminium production facilities. In any case, the cost of energy in Europe has pushed some aluminium smelters like Lynemouth out of business as indicated by Morris (2012). This could be an indication that the operating environment in Europe (especially the high energy prices) is making it hard for investors to make profits. The American continent, although recovering from the economic crisis at a much faster rate than Europe, still has cautionary tendencies, and this too may impact its ability to attain the aluminium production estimates indicated by OECD. Morris (2012) for example observes that there are no new smelters scheduled to enter the US market until 2016. This then means that there will be a stagnation of production of aluminium in the region, unless existing facilities expand their production. Second, the GCC countries have ample and cheap energy sources, thus giving them a comparative advantage over other regions that have to balance the higher energy costs with the need to remain profitable. Additionally, Morris (2012) notes that smelters in the GCC region are connected to the power grid, hence ensuring that the production facilities have uninterrupted power throughout the aluminium production process. Not everything is in favour of the GCC countries however; the availability of raw materials as discussed further in this paper is a major challenge to the region. However, the countries have countered the scarcity of resources by getting into strategic business relationships with business entities in the bauxite mining sector. For example, Dubal, which is fully owned by the UAE government, has forged several strategic partnerships in Africa and Brazil with the view of securing bauxite (Fitch, 2011). In addition to the scarcity of raw materials, Fitch (2011) argues that the human resource is also a major concern for the aluminium production business in the UAE and the larger GCC region. Fortunately, the locally unavailable human resources can be catered for by importing talent from other countries in which case the UAE companies would need to adopt multi-cultural business environments in order to make full use of the imported talented. Aluminium industry uses Due to its versatility, aluminium is used for a wide range of industrial purposes. According to Bergsdal, Stromman & Hertwich (2004) the commonest industrial use of the commodity is in the transportation and construction industries. In the transport industry for example, it is used in the production of vehicles, aircrafts, train cars and water vessels. In the construction industry, aluminium’s weight, strength and versatility are considered important elements, thus making it a prominent feature in walls, roofs, facades and windows. Figure 3: The aluminum value chain Source: GCG (2008) Aluminium products are diverse and are hence used in diverse industries; for example, aluminium foils, cans, and food packaging utilities are increasingly being used the world over. According to Bergsdal et al. (2004, p. 17), the increased use of aluminium in food packaging is pegged on the fact that it “is impermeable and keeps out air, light, odour and bacteria in order to preserve content”. The same qualities are making it an attractive package for pharmaceutical and cosmetic products. Figure 4 below illustrates how aluminium is used in different industries all over the world. Figure 4: World aluminum usage Source: OECD (2010) GCC countries future on aluminium business If indications in literature are anything to go by, then it is evident that the GCC countries are poised to become major aluminium producers. In a 2011 report for example, Frost and Sullivan (cited by Technical Review, 2011) stated that the GCC is “expected to contribute over 13 percent of the world’s aluminium by 2013” (para. 1). Currently, the GCC accounts for seven percent of the global aluminium production. Between 2010 and 2011 alone, the aluminium production in the region increased by 16 percent. The growth was linked to new investments in the aluminium production industry with industries like Qantam reaching full production capacity within the same period. Notably, the GCC countries are expanding their investments in the aluminium industry with reports indicating that current investments targeting the commission of new smelters and expansion of existing ones is worth $30 billion (Technical Review, 2011). Industry forecasts by Frost and Sullivan (cited by Technical Review, 2011) indicate that GCC investments in the aluminium industry will most likely reach the $55 billion mark by 2020. Translated, this means that the regions’ production capacity will increase, hence positioning it as a major aluminium business region in the world. One of the competitive advantages that the GCC countries have over other aluminium producing countries is the fact that the region has abundant and inexpensive energy resources. This means that they can afford to produce aluminium at relatively cheaper prices compared to other countries which have to factor in the expensive cost of energy used in the aluminium production process. Being major oil producing countries, the GCC countries have strong GDPs, which did not suffer as much impact from the economic crisis as the economies in the West. As Gulf Capital Group (GCG, 2008, p. 1) notes, the oil revenues have enabled the GCC countries “to diversify their economies and strengthen their positions in a variety of sectors”. Although exceeded by other sectors such as the production of chemicals and plastics, the production of cement, and the production of steel, aluminium production is still ranked among the top five industries that have attracted the most industrial projects in the region. For example, in 2008 alone, there were nine aluminium industrial projects coming up among the GCC countries (GCG, 2008). Another comparative advantage that GCC countries have over other aluminium producers is their proximity to aluminium markets. Aside from being major consumers of the aluminium products (something that is made possible by the petrodollars which are fuelling economic development in the region), GCC countries are also near the major aluminium markets in Europe and Asia as illustrated in the figure below. Figure 5: The GCC region’s proximity to major aluminum markets Source: GCG (2008). The growth of the aluminium business in the GCC region and the world Aluminium production is rated as one of the “most important non-petroleum industries” in the UAE (GCG, 2008). As the country diversifies from gas and oil, aluminium production has become one of the areas that it seeks to gain foothold. But UAE is not alone in this; other countries in the GCC including Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have in the recent past established projects that seek to increase their production of the metal. The only countries that were not planning any aluminium producing plants by 2008 were Bahrain and Kuwait. Table 2 below shows such projects, their expected production capacities and their completion dates. Table 2: Projects that have been undergoing in the GCC in the 2000s Source: GCG (2008, p. 9) The expanded production is an indication that the aluminium business is going to grow in proportionate volumes once the commissioned projects are fully operational. As such, it should be expected that there will be an increased aluminium supply from the GCC region, and in line with the demand and supply theory, this may affect the overall price of the commodity in the international market. However, the price elasticity of the aluminium in the world market depends on whether or not the production of the commodity in other regions will remain constant. Additionally, the prevailing demand of the commodity may affect the prices as well. As it is, aluminium demand is forecasted to be on an incremental trend as a result of activities in the developing countries such as China and India. Emissions control and limitations According to Technical Review (2011), the hazardous waste generated during aluminium production remains a major challenge for the UAE and the GCC at large. Currently, the region does not have the capacity to treat the hazardous waste. To tackle the challenge however, the GCC countries contract third-party service providers to treat the waste (Technical Review, 2011) According to Bergsdal et al. (2004), air emissions (including particulates, carbon dioxide equivalents, sodium dioxide and mercury); water emissions (including mercury, suspended solids, and oil/grease); bauxite residues, and other landfill waste are among the major by-products that have caught the concern of the aluminium producing countries. Primary aluminium production is a major source of perfluorocarbon compounds namely Hexafluoroethane (C2F6) and tetrafluoromenthane (CF4). The two compounds have been identified as potent greenhouse gases “with long atmospheric lifetimes” (Bergsdal et al., 2004, p. 22). Although the release of the two compounds is hard to measure during normal operations, industry analysts believed that the compounds form “during brief upsets conditions when the level of aluminium oxide in the electrolytic cell drops too low and the electrolytic bath itself begins to undergo electrolysis” thus causing anode effects (Bergsdal et al., 2004, p. 22). The major limitation is that strict transboundary regulations exist in the GCC region, hence making waste management and treatment even trickier as indicated by Deloitte (2011). Aluminium smelters in the GCC – comparison, size, capacity By 2008, Saudi Arabia was the only GCC country that lacked a primary aluminium production facility. However, the Kingdom was planning the Maaden Complex, which according to the 2008 estimates, has a capacity of 720000 tonnes of aluminium per year. Table 3 below shows the different smelters in the GCC region. Smelter Size/Capacity (mtpa) location Dubal 1, 270,000 UAE (Dubai) Alba 850,000 Bahrain Sohar 330,000 Oman Qatalum 585,000 Qatar Emal 1,400,000 (Estimated for 2014) UAE (Abu Dhabi) Ma’aden 720,000 (estimated for 2013) Saudi Arabia Source: Analysis from different literature sources Based on the table above, it is clear that the UAE has the largest production capacity based on Dubal’s ad Emal’s production. Emal started production in 2011 and has catapulted the UAE as a major aluminium production force both regionally and internationally. Raw material scarcity Aluminium compounds are the third commonest crustal element making up 7.3% of the earth’s crust (Bergsdal et al., 2004). This not withstanding, it takes three steps to extract aluminium from the aluminium compounds. First, bauxite is mined from the earth’s crust, followed by the refinement of bauxite into alumina (Al2O3). Finally, alumina is turned into metallic aluminium through electrolytic reduction. Two to three parts of bauxite are required to produce one part of alumina, while approximately two parts of alumina are needed to produce one part of aluminium. Apart from bauxite and alumina, a great deal of energy goes into the refinement process, meaning that energy too is a resource that is needed in the production of aluminium. Overall, the main raw materials that go into aluminium production include bauxite, caustic soda, calcined lime, fresh water, sea water, and fuels and electricity (Bergsdal et al., 2004). Of all the raw materials, the GCC region, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, do not have bauxite deposits. This then means that most of the GCC region has to depend on imports of bauxite from other regions. Saudi Arabia has bauxite deposits in the Az Zabirah region (GCG, 2008). By 2008, the Kingdom had not developed the infrastructure needed to access the deposits yet. Smelters in the GCC region have to contend with limited supplies of raw materials. As fate would have it, GCC countries have limited supplies of the core raw materials, with Saudi Arabia having some bauxite deposits, and Alba having recently set up a mining facility for the calcined coke. Bauxite on the other hand is the core raw material that smelters in the UAE have to import from different countries, which include Australia and India. In a bid to secure long-term bauxite supplies, Dubal for example entered into a contract with an Indian company (Larsen and Toubro) and set up a bauxite mining and alumina refinery project in the Orissa State of India in 2004. Dubal has also entered into a strategic partnership with Global Alumina Products- a Guinean company. The partnership gives Dubal the right to purchase 25 percent of all alumina produced by the company’s refineries. Analysing the different ways that UAE smelters are handling the scarcity of raw materials, one gets the impression that they are handling the situation strategically for purposes of securing supplies in the future. For example, Dubal’s investments both in India and Guinea are indications that the company is preparing itself for tougher times in future in relation to raw material scarcity. Whether the new smelters will follow in the footsteps of their well-established counterparts in an effort to secure long-term supply of bauxite and alumina is however amenable to discussion. Efficacy improvement and its impact on business The UAE and the GCC countries at large have embarked on efficacy improvement projects in the aluminium production industry since the 2000s. Like every other investment, such improvement measures came at a cost in term of the initial capitals put into the projects. However, most such projects were supported by respective governments as the GCC region moved towards actualising its 2030 vision of diversifying the economies of constituent countries from being oil- and gas-based economies into being more industry/ or manufacturing oriented. Some of the efficacy improvements that the UAE has put in place (based on Dubal’s activities) include the “high amperage DX and DX+ reduction cell technologies” which will enable the production of high-purity aluminium production, enhanced energy efficiency, lower environmental impact and lower carbon consumption by the production plant (Albawaba, 2012, para. 3). While these improvements will have strategic advantages for the firm in the long-term, the money invested in the same has cut the operating profits of the firm. Conclusion This paper has established that although aluminium production has been taken up by all GCC countries as part of the region’s economic diversification from oil and gas industries, the UAE is a prominent country in relation to future aluminium production owing to the larger number of projects it is undertaking compared to the other countries. Based on the projects, it is expected that UAE alone will account for more than 2.6 million tonnes per annum of the approximate 5.1 million tonnes per annum that the GCC region will be producing going by the statistics shown in the discussion. The paper has further established that GCC’s prospects at becoming a major aluminium production region is mainly pegged on its oil and gas resources which translate into reliable and cheaper power compared to other aluminium producing regions in the world. Additionally, the petrodollars that the GCC countries generate from their oil resources enable them to have the investment capital needed to invest in the capital intensive aluminium projects. The competitive advantages aside, the GCC region has a scarcity of the core raw resources that go into the production of aluminium. Players in the region have however forged beneficial strategic alliances with bauxite mining firms, hence protecting their future production interests. The region also faces a threat in ensuring the availability of human resources, but this too can be resolved through exporting talent from other countries. Overall, it is evident that the GCC is well positioned for the big break in aluminium production, especially considering that the would-be competitors are lacking in the strategic and competitive advantages that the region has. Europe with its short-term cash problems; the America’s with their precautionary measures which has stagnated aluminium production in the short term, and the earthquake that hit Japan in 2011 thus disrupting its aluminium production and hence its ability to supply China’s needs successfully, are all factors that are working in the GCC countries’ favour. References Albawaba (2012). Dubal fulfils objectives at CRU 2012. Retrieved 21 May 2012 from: http://www.albawaba.com/business/pr/dubal-cru-424232 Anjum, N. (2012). Credit Suisse cuts golf, silver price forecasts. Reuters. Retrieved 19 May 2012 from: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/01/17/research-creditsuisse-forecasts-idINDEE80G05120120117. Bergsdal, H., Stromman, A.H. & Hertwisch, E.G. (2004). The aluminium industry- environment, technology and production. NTNU-Program for Industrell Okologi. 8/20041-56. Trondheim, Norway. Deloitte (2011). 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