How Likely is a Future Hegemonic War between US and China - Essay Example

History and Political Science By Due How likely is a future hegemonic war between USand China? Introduction Hegemony is a type of imperialism in which a state indirectly rules over other states by means of implied power and threat rather than military force. That state that practices hegemony is called a hegemon. Hegemony is a relationship of power in which the subordinate state is compelled by the hegemonic state to perform such social tasks which are culturally incompatible and not beneficial to it. There have been many hegemonic states in history with the 19th- and 20th-century Reich’s of unified Germany being the latest example. In modern times, no state claims to be hegemonic but hegemony can be detected easily when international affairs of powerful states, e.g. the USA, are studied. This essay discusses the possibility of a hegemonic war between America and China. A hegemonic war is a struggle to be the one and only super power which cannot be challenged. America has been enjoying the status of a superpower for quite some time but this status now seems to have been threatened by the rise of China. Thucydides’ Theory of Hegemonic War and its Application Today Thucydides presented a theory of hegemonic war according to which “the uneven growth of power among states is the driving force of international relations.” (Gilpin, 1988) Different countries progress at different rates. The progress of some countries is almost none due to any possible limitations. The countries that develop more become more powerful than under-developed countries. The countries having more power want to remain in the same capacity which is why they tend to control things in a manner that serves their own interests. An international system in which the interests of the powerful state (hegemon) are not threatened, that system is regarded as stable. The fundamental changes in the international system cause hegemonic wars because the state having hegemonic power tries to remain unchallenged. These changes could be economical or technological. Such developments strengthen the international standing of countries and the hegemonic state feels threatened. Therefore, it starts a hegemonic war in order to re-stabilize the international system. There is another view according to which the relationship between two countries is seen as a system and significant changes in that system leads towards a hegemonic war. Another view proposes that the structure of the international system is threatened by the hegemonic war which also puts the hierarchy of power of states at stake. In the modern world, the US is the most powerful country and can truly be called a modern hegemonic power. However, China has developed at an astonishing rate and is continuing to develop. China’s political influence on the world’s affairs is not as strong as the US’ but its economic growth is really threatening the US. A country that is in a strong economic position earns itself a very good position when it comes of negotiating with other countries. China is able to produce almost every product that is in use today, and it does so at a very cheap rate. There was a time when consumers did not prefer Chinese products because of the question of quality, but the trust in quality of Chinese products is growing these days. This is greatly helping China’s economic growth. By the application of Thucydides’ theory of hegemonic war, China’s economic growth would threaten America’s standing in the international hierarchy. The US would feel that the international system, compared to what it was before, has become destabilized. Also, China is starting to recognize its importance in the international arena. It wants an even more respectable stature and its persuasive qualities are on a rise. According to Thucydides, the human nature never undergoes a change, and world has experienced hegemonic wars throughout history. Therefore, history would repeat itself and there would inevitably a hegemonic war. Since America and China are the strongest hegemonic candidates, the war would likely be between these two countries. According to Thucydides, the characteristics of human nature that prove to be the guiding forces for a hegemonic war are interest, pride and fear. As regards interest, both America and China have a passion to increase their wealth. Oil is probably the most important commodity in modern times and countries want to have as much oil at their disposal as possible. It is getting scarce and the largest reservoirs of oil are present in the Middle East. America invaded Iraq under the impression that Iraq was preparing “weapons of mass destruction” but since there has never been any proof that such weapons ever existed in Iraq, it is now understood that America invaded Iraq for oil. America has looked to increase its wealth aggressively. Thucydides argues that human beings always seek to increase their wealth until others with similar passion try to stop them. China also wants to increase its wealth but it has never shown an aggressive intent. China’s supremacy has largely been due to its low cost of production which has enabled it to have a strong grip on the international market. However, it is also a nuclear power and its military strength is formidable. It is believed that advancement in political knowledge can lead to peace but it would only be temporary. The human nature eventually prevails and a hegemonic war ensues. After the World War II, countries all across the world came together and established the United Nations so that peace can be maintained. The UN has done a good job but it has not succeeded in preventing all conflicts. America has been involved in three wars and the reasons for those wars have coincided with those explained by Thucydides i.e. interest, pride, and fear. America’s relation with Iran is very strained. Iran is not a direct threat to America but America wants to keep Iran under control, and wants Iran to do as it says. The primary reason for that seems to be pride mixed with a little bit of fear. Attacking someone due to the fear that they would attack you is never a justifiable reason. If Iran is a threat for America, it is not bigger than China. It is because America is clearly more powerful and stable than Iran but the same cannot be said about China. China, in addition to being a nuclear power, is economically sound and politically strong. According to Thucydides, there are a number of factors that lead to hegemonic war. The first set of elements is of the geographical and demographical elements. The hegemonic states look to expand because the resources in its area become scarce for its population. Therefore, they search for a place that has enough or even ample resources for its population. They invade such places and settle in. With the passage of time, the part of settling in has been partially replaced by extraction of the resources. This trend has probably been set by the Great Britain. America has been repeating this exercise to some extent as it invaded Iraq for oil, and it continues to be involved in the affairs of the Middle East as it wants to secure its interests at all costs. As China grows stronger, it may also want to have some influence on the management of the oil reservoirs of the Middle East. America might not tolerate sharing its influence with another power. (Gilpin, 1988) The second set of elements relates to technological and economical advancement. America has, of course, accomplished all that can be fathomed in both departments. However, China is also catching up at an alarming pace. The economic growth is enabling China to accumulate and acquire significant amount of wealth. Also, the communist style of government allows China to keep the distribution of wealth in check and under control. On the other hand, China is also greatly progressing in the technological area. It is a nuclear power and is able to produce at a lower cost than most of the countries in the world. All these factors would contribute to China’s rise as a hegemonic power. (Gilpin, 1988) The final factor is political. If there is a hegemonic war between America and China, it might be a war between capitalism and communism. However, none of the countries are either purely capitalist or purely socialist. Both countries apply the policies of capitalism and socialism in order to attain the desired results. The American president, Barrack Obama, recently applied some socialist policies in order to control the falling stock exchange. (Gilpin, 1988) America-China Hegemonic War A hegemonic war between America and China cannot be predicted by solely basing on Thucydides’ theory. His theory was presented during times when the international system was very unstable. The powerful states were looking to expand because of which there was a lot of warring. The world was not as politically enlightened as it is today. The regard for human rights was also very little. It is better to look at the situation on the basis of evidence and the priorities of the future. China is growing strong and if it continues its economic growth, it would likely become an even bigger threat for America as it is right now. America cannot stop China right now because there are no grounds for a conflict. China’s process of strengthening is not aggressive. There is no country in the world right now which is at daggers drawn with China. China’s rise, so far, has been so peaceful that the rest of the world has been given no choice but to welcome it. However, there have been some arguments against China’s peaceful rise. It is believed that if China gets stronger, it would take control of the whole region of East Asia. The West already considers this region to be dangerous and threatening. It believes that China’s control on the region would make it even more threatening and dangerous. It is because China is not a democratic state. It is an authoritarian state and its control on the region would be likewise. It is believed that China’s authoritarian nature would prevent it from making credible statements about its intentions. The evidence shows that there is no alarm in the region as a reaction to China’s growth. No country in the region considers China to be a threat to their existence. However, Japan has a bitter history with China but they have been in peace with each other for decades. Even then if China’s history of conflicts with a few countries in the region is considered, the opposing countries would certainly side with America if they are given a choice in the event of a hegemonic war. Another side of the argument is that countries tend to be pro-active when they fear a threat from another country and prepare for future in the present. If the countries in the East feel threatened by China, they would have done something about it by now. There is no evidence of any such occurrence. Still, many analysts and researchers believe that there would be instability in the world at some stage in the future but this instability would likely be in East Asia rather than the West. The reason of this observation is the rise of China. One measure of the international stability is the number of countries that would align with either America or China. According to Kang, “States such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and even South Korea could be much more focused on aligning with the U.S., but they have chosen not to do so.” America is balancer of the rise of power of China but it is too offshore. It needs allies in the East Asia and it would not matter how large or small an American ally country is. Currently, it seems that more countries would like to align with China than the US. It is because, despite the aforementioned belief regarding being an authoritarian state, China has made reliable claims and announcements regarding its intentions and it’s foreign policy. The world trusts China’s word and there is no objection to China’s rise. China’s rise is helpful for other countries and they seek to benefit from it. They do not see China as a country that would force weaker countries to perform such tasks that are beneficial for China only. China’s rise is fuelled by trade. Cheaper products lower the costs of production of other countries too and it helps their economy. Therefore, more countries might side with China. Also, America is heavily involved the affairs of the East. It might be argued that America’s involvement is due to its own safety. But America needs to withdraw from the East because its involvement is currently the biggest problem hurdle in the attainment of world peace. If America withdraws, the other countries might not look to “balance” China’s power but they might accommodate it. China’s rise is a threat to America and America might take some action in future to curb it. However, there is another side to this picture. As China is increasing in power, it also faces a threat from America. Both countries fear each other’s probable action against each other. Therefore, China would look to increase its military strength to face any future action from America in any shape. When it does that, it would not do so very silently. It would require America to know its military strength so that America thinks twice before showing any type of aggression. But the requirement of this knowledge might also create a misunderstanding and America might think that China is looking to make a move against America. On the other hand, great powers do not grow in military power merely to be secure. They also want to become the only great power in the world. Therefore, a hegemonic war might be a result of pride only. America has a history of facing countries seeking hegemonic power. It achieved independence from England which was actually a hegemonic state. Then it faced the challenge of having hostile states in its neighbourhood. Therefore, it had to fight and work hard to become regional hegemonic power. It did so successfully. It helped in defeating Germany in World War I. Then it did it again in World War II when Germany was looking poised to have its hold on the whole of Europe. Germany made some bad decisions in Russia too but America’s role in German defeat was also very significant. America also disrupted Japanese surge in Asia and put an end to World War II effectively in 1945 when it historically dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It was at that time that America was recognized worldwide as a superpower. However, America was not the only superpower at that time. It had to share it with the USSR which was no less in power than America itself. There was a cold war and both countries tried to silently harm each other’s interests. By the end of 1980s, The USSR faced a heavy defeat in Afghanistan and America stood as the one and only superpower. By looking at America’s history, it can be observed that America’s behaviour against China might resemble its behaviour against Russia during the cold war. (Mearsheimar, 2006) China is an authoritarian state much like the USSR but its overall disposition is not as aggressive as the USSR. The USSR was devoid of a useful harbour but China does not suffer from that problem. It can be argued that China’s own harbour is too far away and it is not as useful as a harbour should be. But China’s relation with Pakistan is very friendly and strong. Both countries have been very loyal to each other. China has the option of using Pakistan’s harbour which is probably the best in whole Asia as far as its position is concerned. Unlike the USSR, China does not need to invade Afghanistan to get to Pakistan’s harbour. However, if there would be a conflict, it might be due to the fact that China would not want America in its neighbouring countries. It is much like America did not want other powers in its surroundings. China might persuade America to vacate its surroundings in Asia and America might look at this demand as a threat to itself. It would then look to gain allies in that region and work with them to curb China’s rise. America has done the same in the past against the USSR during the cold war. Countries like Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea would like a weaker China. Therefore, their interests would align with those of the US and they might become allies against China in the future. Another major factor is the alliance of America and Japan. This alliance seems to have been outdated and it looks improbable that it would be sustained for a long period of time. If there is a change in this alliance, China would have to seriously re-think its strategy in the region. After the World War II, America took responsibility to make it sure that Japan remained militarily weak. Therefore, it took upon itself the responsibility of Japanese defence. America has been doing so for decades. Now it feels that this undertaking has been beneficial for Japan alone and America has not been able to reap any benefit from the deal. Therefore, America might alter its stance in the region in the future. If America leaves, Japan would have to strengthen its own military and China has sufficient reasons to feel threatened. (Christensen, 1999) Conclusion The reason of a hegemonic war between the two states would be based on mistrust or a misunderstanding. This mistrust is inevitable because sooner or later, the interests of both nations are going to collide. Each state would want to protect its own interest even if it means destroying the interests of the other. America has done it before and it might do it again. If it does, China might retaliate in kind. However, there are too many other factors involved which cannot be ignored. Wars have always been deadly and as the modern weaponry is getting more and more advanced, war is becoming amazingly costly. Not just economic costs, there are also too many social costs to be paid if a country engages in a war. The American public has performed numerous protests against its government because they did not approve the war against Iraq. However, whenever America has engaged in a war, it has put the question of survival in front of it to justify its decision. For a superpower like America, survival means being the strongest country in the world so that no other country can threaten it. If a hegemonic war is what is required to curb China’s rise, America would surely engage in it. The question of survival would become the same for China as well, and the biggest threat to it would be America. Therefore, a hegemonic war between America and China is highly probable. References David Kang. “Why China’s Rise Will be Peaceful: Hierarchy and stability in the East Asian region”. Perspectives on Politics. Web. John. J Mearsheimar. “China’s Unpeaceful Rise.” Current Library. Vol. 105, No. 690. P. 160. Robert Gilpin. “The Theory of Hegemonic War.” The Journal of Interdisciplinary History. Vol. 18, No. 4, The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Spring, 1988), pp. 591-613 Thomas J. Christensen. “China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia.” International Security. Vol. 23, No. 4 (Spring, 1999), pp. 49-80 Read More