Yemens Internal and External Vulnerabilities - Research Paper Example

Yemen Overview In the Middle East, Arabian Peninsula is situated a country known as Yemen. The total area of country is 536,868 km2 (207,288 miles2) with the residents of 22.2 million according to 2007 estimate. The density of population is 40.04 per sq km. Capital of the country is Sana’a having population of around 1 million (2005 estimate). The official Language is Arabic however English is extensively spoken as a second language.1 Since 2007 the chief of the control is Prime Minister named as Ali M. Mujawar and 1990 onwards the head of state is President Ali Abdullah Saleh2. Yemen boasts immensely diverse background, from glorious valleys to flourishing areas and extensive beautiful seashores, veil souks, seasoning bazaars and prehistoric urban ramparts. Yemen was considered as Arabia Felix by the Romans gifted with hilly areas which famed the country and separated it from the rest of infertile wilderness of the desert area. Yemen appeared on the map of earth after the descent of the Great Roman kingdom, in the 17th century beneath the great authority of the Islamic religion and ideology. The northwestern and northeastern parts of the country are surrounded by Saudi Arabia. The eastern borders are shared with Oman while the south is located with the boundary of Gulf of Aden. Red Sea lies in the west. Yemen is chiefly hilly, supporting terraced cultivation. The dry coastal plains are fringed with sandy shorelines3. Yemen Internal Constraints Degree of radical (political, religious, or cultural) change being attempted by the government Yemen is an aggressive state society. The reasons are vast like religion, natural imbalance, tribal based social structures etc. All these sensitive problems have been extensively touched by the government’s non serious attitude which resulted in a serious country condition4. It has been figured that “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)” is emerging from Yemen territory5, the state which itself is facing a number of security and economic upheavals. Population of the country is plagued by the issues of unemployment, declining literacy rate and poverty. Natural resources are also getting scarce. It has been estimated that water reserves of Sana’a (Capital of Yemen) will de diminished till the year 2015similarlyoil resources are likely to run out near 2017. Moreover insurgency named Al Houthi operating in the northern Yemen and secessionists of southern Yemen both pose a threat to the government stability and adversely affecting security apparatus6. Due to high levels of corruption and scarcity of resources Government is unable to address prevailing socio economic issues. Political threats Yemen is a single party governing country in which the General People's Congress (GPC) holds authority. Opponent parties are permitted, but are generally considered to have no real possibility of gaining command. United States of America was amongst the initial countries in the West, to identify the declaration of the Arab Republic of Yemen however the disaster of Arab-Israeli War in 1967 ended in a cooling of political relations among USA and the Arab countries, including Yemen7.  Political parties and organizations in Yemen condemned current Israeli pressure against Syria, taking it into account as provocation8. Analysts see the most daring sight to the biased supremacy of the wide-ranging assembly which stem from a variety of security risks imposed by the religious and racial fundamentals inside the territory9. The country’s major landscape lacks the supremacy of the fundamental administration which should posses the control and authority above the far-flung governorates, as a result of which the tribal culture and system has gained more strength and power making it difficult for the central authority to manage all the areas efficiently. Kidnapping of the tourists has become very common by the tribal and in return they get legal and financial dispensations.10 For example very recently 2 visitors from Japan were picked up by the tribesman in the area of Marib11. Ethnic and religious threats Yemen is a state with almost comparable numbers of Sunnis and Shia Muslims. From a religious point of view a major concern is the growing threat of local escalation with the participation of Iran and Saudi Arabia. A cease fire agreement between government and rebels of al Houthi has taken place in February, 201012 to minimize incidents of violence yet even minor breaches of the contract has caused AQAP to monitor more freely13. The Al Houthi clash in Yemen’s Northern Province has been intense for around 6 years14. Clashes among Shia rebels and local spiritual rivals are also posing a threat to the agreement. Energy limitations The economy of Yemen is mainly reliant on the oil reserves of the country. 80 to 85% of the country’s economy depends on the income generated by the export of crude oil. The oil reserves of the country are good but not very much as compared to the other countries which lie very close to it and are accounted as the very strong oil producers like Saudi. Yemen’s major oil assets are concerted towards the north and some in south as well, estimating 2,865,000 barrels per day15. The GDP growth was increased to 2.9% in 1999 because of the rise in oil prices and in year2000 the increase in GDP was found to be 6.1%. It is anticipated that if the prices keep on going like this it will have a positive effect on the overall economy of the. The oil division is not able to provide sufficient jobs thus giving way to long-standing problem of unemployment.16 Economic and financial limitations Yemen is amongst the poorest countries of the world which is still struggling to improve from the 2007-2008 worldwide food disaster, which saw a remarkable rise in the cost of such staples as wheat, corn and rice.  Yemen is now facing shortage of food and elevated food prices resulting from current famine and piercingly increasing prices for imported foodstuff and fertilizers, particularly grains. The government firstly tried to manage wheat prices in 2008 through doubling-up the government’s segment of the wheat imports, but a fall in the cost of oil, which is Yemen’s chief basis of export income, caused that strategy to cancel. Later that year the government reduced its expenditures on social sectors. The cuts and elevated foodstuff prices have led to additional economic adversity and a flow in poverty, especially for the greater part of rural inhabitants. Today, around 32% of Yemen’s inhabitants are considered as malnourished and food-insecure as prices stay high. The prices will probably continue to increase as the government slowly abandons weak energy subsidies, deteriorating the problem for the deprived in the short-term. During the year 1998 the unemployment rate reached to the high levels of around 36% as compared to United States where it was only 4.3% in the year 1999. The government is putting enough effort to overcome this issue of unemployment however it poses a serious threat in the coming years17. Military The country’s third biggest expenditure is security and it has been predicted that it will remain high because of the reinstatement of recruitment and defense pressures imposed as a result of violence, intolerance and ethnic clashes. In the year 2001 the defence budget was 550 million US dollars which increased to around 2 billion US dollars in the year18. There is great extent of army racing in the region. Yemen spends almost 1/3rd of its budget on the maintenance of huge army setup. Yemen’s armed forces are separated into an military, fleet, and the air strength. Approximate figure of armed forces staff is comparatively far above the ground. It has the army strength next to Saudi Arabia in the region19.  Yemen External Constraints The 1990–91Gulf War had a harmful impact on Yemen’s relations with its Arab neighbors20 and as a result Kuwait and Saudi Arabia posed a cut on serious economic help to the country. Iran is also considered as a serious challenger21. The Saudi Arabian government disqualified Yemeni employees and cut off financial support22. The 1990 alliance caused Yemen to be in a serious foreign which was accounted as about roughly double total production capacity of the country23. Yemen was incapable to make its debt expenditure but, overseas help as grants and credit, has helped the country to sustain and survive. The major contribution was provided by USA and the Europe side24. Pursuit of irredentist goals Yemen has always been involved in boundary issues like al Najran and most of Rab Al khali are in Saudi Arabia, for which both countries claim25 but in the year 2000, Saudi Arabia and Yemen decided to delimitate their boundary26. Yemen is currently facing numerous challenges that might adversely affect its worldwide socio economic status. Government of the country must adopt appropriate strategies to deal with these impeding issues otherwise the population will have to bear the consequences for ages to come. Bibliography CIA: The world Fact Book, Yemen, 2010, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ym.html (accessed 31 December 2010) Cohen, Saul Bernard, Geopolitics of the world system, (Boston: Rowman & Littlefield, 2003), 347  Country Strategy Paper Yemen (2002-2006), http://eeas.europa.eu/yemen/csp/02_06_en.pdf (accessed 31 December 2010) Critical threats: Understanding the challenge. 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Yemen's international relations, 2000, January 2010, http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/pol/int.htm (accessed 31 December 2010) Stiftung Bertelsmann, Yemen. Shaping Change-Strategies of development and Transformation, 2006 http://bti2006.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/140.0.html?L=1(accessed 31 December 2010) The World Bank. “Workfare helps Yemen cope with food prices”, 2010, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/MENAEXT/YEMENEXTN/0,,contentMDK:22614687~menuPK:50003484~pagePK:2865066~piPK:2865079~theSitePK:310165,00.html (accessed 31 December, 2010). The Yemeni state and government, 2010, http://www.al-bab.com/yemen/gov/gov.htm (accessed 31 December 2010) US Energy Information Administration, Yemen Energy Profile, 2010, http://www.eia.doe.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=YM (accessed 31 December 2010) Yemen Travel Guide and Tourist Information. I Explore come back different, 2010, http://www.iexplore.com/dmap/Yemen/The+Essentials;$sessionid$IAUJLOQAAGT14P2MN5XCGWQ (Accessed 31 December 2010) Yemen Today Magazine. Political Parties condemn Israeli Threats in Syria, 2004 http://www.yobserver.com/reports/1001981.html (accessed 31 December 2010) Zimmerman, Katherine, Critical Threats project briefing on Yemen and AQAP, 2010, http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/Dashboard_Yemen_2010_NOV.pdf (accessed 31 December 2010) Read More