Decision of Uncertainty - Research Paper Example

Scenario: I have been saving for some time to go to Switzerland and ski. I have finally saved enough money to book a flight and go to Switzerland. There was a possibility that my flight into Switzerland would be canceled together. I live in a snowy state in the Unites States. Is a possibility that my flight will be canceled some point during the trip due to snowy weather? If my flight is a canceled airline, I chose does not have to put me on standby. The airline does not have to put me up in a hotel, and purchase my dinner.

My problem is a flight to, Switzerland cost more than $2000. If my flight is canceled and the airline does not put me on another flight, I will lose all my money. I can purchase a rescheduling appropriation fee for 25%. This is the only way the airline will be the put I on another flight. If I pay the 25% additional fee to have a re appropriation flight made available to me, I will be cutting into my spending money that I had for my trip. Research: I have done extensive research to find out the probability of my flights being canceled together.

Flights are only canceled together if there is such inclement weather that there is a blizzard. The probability of a flight being canceled together, and not just delayed is 2%. There are many snowstorms in the Swiss Alps, but the chances are that my play will be canceled altogether is 2%. Interpretation of the data: Before I could determine what I should do I had to interpret the data from my research. I decided to use the Bayes’ theorem of interpreting data. The Bayes’ theorem will allow me to determine whether, or not I should purchase the additional fee for 25%.

My scenarios for 1, my flight was going to be delayed, and I was going to have to stay all night in the airport, but the airport would put me on another airplane, because my entire flight was delayed. 2, my flight would be canceled altogether due to inclement weather such as the blizzard. If the airline cannot find a replacement thing to reassign my flight to my flight will be canceled. The probability of some flights being canceled altogether is 2%. 3, my flight would not be canceled, or delayed at all and I would be able to arrive at my destination in the Swiss Alps on time, and with no extra pocket expense.

The Bayes’ theorem helps me to deduce the probability that my life will be canceled together, and to determine whether or not I should pay the additional 25% fee so that I can be booked on another flight if my flight was canceled after. The risk of my flight being canceled together with only 2%. Otherwise, I would be on a flight later that day because the airline would find another plane to take me, or I would arrive in the Swiss Alps on time and with no extra expense. Because the risk of my flight being canceled together and that I wouldn’t need to read booked my flight was only 2%.

Decision: I decided with the chances that my flight would be canceled together, and then I would have to read booked on another airline, or another flight on another day with the same airline was so slim that I decided to take my chances of losing the $2000 I have invested to purchase the ticket to the Swiss Alps. Before I came to the conclusion that I should not pay the additional 25%, and save this $500 to spend on my aging, and food, and souvenirs while I am in the Swiss Alps. I had many things to consider.

I made my decision based on deductive reasoning that the chances are I will not even encounter the problem that my flight would be delayed, and reassigned to another airplane for a later trip were very slim. So, since it was very slim that my whole flight would be played, and that all passengers would be assigned to another flight later on I decided it must be a very slim possibility that the flight would be canceled together.