Reducing Storm Surge Impacts in the UK - Essay Example

?Coastal Processess: Assessment II Reducing Storm Surge Impacts in the UK through a Comprehensive Assessment of Storm Surge Risks in UK Coastal Cities [Research Proposal] Name of Student Course Tutor Date of Submission A Research Proposal Submitted to the National Hazards Research Centre (NHRC) Section II: Applicants Name of Student Student Number Section III: Aims of the Project With the view of attaining a complete analysis of past and potentially future storm surge impacts, the aims of the project will be to: Present statistical analysis of past storm surges within 3 identified UK coastal Cities Analyze geographical information of asset and the population exposure in the selected three cities for variant storm surge and sea levels characteristics. Assess the potential direct loses likely to occur in cases of storm surges Assess given corresponding indirect loses Provide a risk analysis of the efficacy of the existent coastal flood protections taking into consideration any potential changes resulting from sea level rises and climate change Section IV: Summary for Non-Experts Storm surge refers to the temporary increases in sea level as a result of the combination of low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. They remain primary components of the total sea level in cases of coastal flooding events since they occur as storms drive massive water quantities towards the coastline. The individual and the combined effect of large waves, rising tides, heavy rainfall and storm surge elevation serve to produce a destructive effect with the capacity of flooding entire coastlines, (Nicholls and Tol 1076). Storm surge and increased flood risk have remained of critical concern to UK Environmental and Risk Management authorities especially in the face of climate change, (NERC 3). The study’s main focus will be to carry out risk assessment on UK storm surges with the view that, a clearer understanding of the situation will better help in the reduction of storm surges and better design and build coastal flood protection mechanism. The study will use a multi-approach technique of analysing past storm surges, assessing direct loses in cases of storm surges, providing a comprehensive geographical-information analysis of the existing population, storm surge characteristics and sea levels and assessing the potential indirect losses, (NERC 4). The researchers are of the view that the assessment will provide valuable information on the current states of selected UK coastal regions thereby enabling definitive sure management or reduction. Section V: Budget Budget Sumary Research Proposal to the The National Hazards Research Centre (NHRC) BUDGET SUMMARY CATEGORY COST TOTAL PHASE I PHASE II PHASE III DIRECT COSTS 1. Personel Salaries and Wages ? 18032 ?17463 ?19684 ?55179 2. Fringe Benefits ?1648 ?2400 ?5645 ? 9693 3. Consultants and Contracts ?809 ?1260 ?1380 ?3449 4. Travel ?3940 ?4500 ?5500 ?13940 5. Accomodation ?3238 ?4120 ?4638 ?11996 6. Food ?1500 ?17120 ?1830 ?20450 7. Supplies and Materials ?1569.98 ?1240 ?1832 ?4632.98 8. Communications (Telephone, Postage, etc) ? 750 ?830 ?1126 ?2706 9. Other Expenses (Equipment Rental) ?399 ?450 ?612 ?1461 TOTAL ?123,506.98 Total Budget Expenses: Personel Salaries and Wages: ?55179 Fringe Benefits: ?9693 Consultants and Contracts: ?3449 Travel: 13940 Accomodation: ?11996 Food: 20450 Supplies and Materials: ?4632.98 Communications: ?2706 Other Expenses: ?1461 TOTAL EXPENSES: ?123, 506.98 Section VI: Justification of the Budget In the course of our research, the project personell cost would also include data analysis and report writing. Supplies funds will be used to cover copying, postage, printing, and telephone calls expenses. Personel salaries and wages will be used to pay individuals who will work within the research team and the renumeration will be dependent upon their project role, project percentage effort, base salary and type of appointment. Percentage of effort will be determined based upon the number of hours per week they will be involved in project related activittes. Consultations and subcontracts will be necesasary part of the budget since entities outside the immediate research team will be involved. Consultants would be viewed as independent vendors and their employment would not be considered formally. The consultation fees payable to these experts would be inclusive of the basic stipend that will be based upon the projected time to complete the work assigned to them. The other budget categores inclusive of travel, food, and accomodation are necessary. Travel expenses reflect the total amount of money that would be required to complete the project and have been reached at in consultation with travel agencies. Section VII: Full Proposal Background Distinct as the difference between the predicted astronomical tide and the actual height of the tide on arrival at the shore, the potential risk of coastal flooding and consequential damage posed by Storm Surge cannot be underestimated. On the 31st, January 1953 a storm surge on the Southwest coast of Netherlands and the East Coast of England was termed the worst natural disaster in over two centuries, (RMS 1). Storm surges are generated by rapidly moving, intense low-pressure weather systems that produce high winds over a particular offshore region. Multiple researches have been undertaken, and the causes and potential damage have been the subject of numerous studies, however, the likelihood and cost of massive storm surges are still not well understood and documented, (Nicholls and Tol 1081 and Flather & Williams 6). Multiple researchers have also noted that climate changes have increased the trend of extreme water levels. They therefore predict an increase in extreme flood events as a result of increased relative time average sea levels and or altered atmospheric characteristics that would aggregately alter storm surge characteristics, (Otten, Bakker and Meijer 24). Previous researchers predicted only smaller increase in water levels; however, studies that are more recent have suggested very uncertain storm surge heights, (Lowe 3). There therefore exist research gaps in providing mechanisms, based on reliable scientific data, that accurately predict the changes in extreme water level events, potential direct loses in cases of such events and potential indirect losses. There is further need to come up with model simulation that can better quantify the uncertainty, (Feagin, Mukherjee, Shanker, Baird, Cinner, and Kerr 4). Research Gaps Most studies often consider flooding as a function of multiple factors such as heavy precipitation, sea level rise, storm surge and geographical location. However, minimal research have been undertaken to study flooding as a result of storm surge only with disregard to all other impacts. Besides, researches have limited information on potential natural barriers such as vegetation, topography and landscape feature, which may potentially absorb wave energy thereby reducing storm surge elevations, (Wamsley, Cialone, Westerink and Smith 6). In its attempt to assess the storm surge risks in the UK, our study will by extension apply numerical models to assess the coastal landscape features that may naturally, or with modification, reduce storm surges with varying intensities. Project Approach A stepwise approach will be used in carrying out the study, which will follow a prescribed outline and timeline. Using pre-existing data and real time sea level information from the 44 precision tide gauge sites developed and maintained by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the researchers will provide a statistical analysis of past and present storm surges in selected coastal cities. Using both the qualitative and quantitative approaches, researchers will thereafter analyze the existing geographical population and asset exposure within the selected cities given variant forms of storm surge characteristics. Based upon the population and asset exposure, and the historical and contemporary storm surge data, the researchers will thereafter, using a number of scientific models, assess both the direct and the corresponding indirect losses. Direct losses will constitute any potential damages to existing tangible assets such as buildings and building contents while the indirect loses will constitute variables such as; job losses, loss in production and reconstruction duration and cost. The United Kingdom was selected as a result of its extensive coastline and greater coastal flood risk as a result of accelerated sea level rise and increased storminess, (RMS 4). The research seeks to focus on low-lying cities with significant of property lying close to the water. Urban settlements lying within the above prescribed category are potentially vulnerable to the impact of natural variability of sea level and storm surges. Aims and objectives As documented above, the study’s aim will include the following: Analyze geographical information of asset and the population exposure in the selected three cities for variant storm surge and sea levels characteristics. Present statistical analysis of past storm surges within 3 identified UK coastal Cities Assess the potential direct loses likely to occur in cases of storm surges Provide a risk analysis of the efficacy of the existent coastal flood protections taking into consideration any potential changes resulting from sea level rises and climate change Assess given corresponding indirect loses Timeline Activity Date Task 1. April 2011 Research Proposal for National Hazards Research Center (NHRC) 2. April 2011-July 1st, 2010 Waiting to Hear back from NHRC 3. July 2011 Ethics Approval Application 4. Agust 2011 Ethics Approval 5. September 2011 (1 Week) Identification of Research Potential Sites 6. September 2011 (1 Week) Research and Purchase of Equipment 7. September 2011 (1 Week) Hiring Research Personell 8. October 2011` Carrying out Phase I of the Project 9. November 2011 Carrying out Phase II of the Project 10. December 2011 Carrying out Phase II of the Project 11. January 2012 Transcription, Literature Review, Analysis and Presentation Potential Beneficiaries The proposed research will present a number of benefits to different groups and individuals. Better understanding of any storm surge impacts will directly assist both local and national policymakers to understand the potential benefits of storm surge mitigation and therefore to design effective, modern adaptation responses, (Burrows, Holt, Walkington, and Wolf, 2008). The study will also clearly document a comprehensive economic assessment of storm surge impacts in selected cities in the UK that will be beneficial to environmental analysts, investors, individuals in academia and governments. Agencies, both within the government and the private sector charged with the responsibility of constructing coastal flooding protection infrastructure will also find our findings invaluable in their decision making. The study will help in determining locations to erect protection systems such as sea walls and dykes so as to present the cities from flooding, (Nicholls and Tol 1073). The research will also be beneficial to long term planners who are often required to explicitly consider uncertainties on storm surge and sea level rise protection thereby ensuring that existing defence mechanisms are robustly improved and customized to effectively operate under a range of possible outcomes, (Wamsley, Cialone, Westerink and Smith 62). Risk assessment will be beneficial to investors, be they from the government or private sectors, whom will identify locations requiring additional investments. Our study also seek to mathematically present the relationship between a given region’s protection level and flood exposure a result which will likely motivate concerned agencies to faultlessly maintain any existing protection infrastructure and mechanism. Result Dissemination The results will be distributed to key government agencies, researchers, the press, relevant Non Governmental Organization and our target donor; The National Hazards Research Centre (NHRC). The report will also be circulated regionally and internationally through meetings and conferences. All major participants in the study and who were involved in planning, analysis or implementation stages of the research will be invited to meetings that present and discuss the project’s major findings. Presentations and meetings will mainly focus on specific topics with experts from related fields being invited. The researchers are certain that the publicity will result in additional interest in the survey of the results thereby leading to additional data analysis and further strengthening our results. The researchers also seek to produce a full technical report whose findings will be subjected to discussion to relevant audiences. To ensure that the study’s findings have the greatest impact to a wider and most relevant audience, a utilization plan will be developed and a survey report that identify the best suited policy makers, administrators, and programs determined. Researchers will categorize stakeholders into; Beneficiaries, Government/Decision Makers, Donors/Consultative committees, UN Agencies, Evaluation Community, Academic/Research Institutions and the broader society. This will enable the customizing of specific information on common audiences thereby meeting a given target group’s expectations. References Burrows, R., Holt, J., Walkington, I. A. And Wolf, J. (2008) Environmental Impacts of Tidal Power Schemes. Liverpool: The University of Liverpool. NERC. Storm Surge Prediction and its Impact on the UK Economy. Proudman Oceanographic Labaratory, 2010. Feagin, Rusty A., Mukherjee, Nibedita., Shanker, Kartik, Baird, Andrew. H, Cinner, Joshua. and Kerr, M. Alexander. “Shelter from the Storm? Use and Misuse of Coastal Vegetation Bioshields for Managing Natural Dissasters.” Conservation Letters, 3(1),2010: 1-11. Flather, R. and Williams, J. Climate Change Effects on Storm Surges: Methodologies and Resultrs. Bidston Hill: Proudman Oceanographic Labaratory, 2009. Lowe, Jason. Coastal Flooding (Policy). Marine Climate Change Impact Partnership, 2007. Nicholls, J. Roberts and Tol, S. J. Richard. “Impacts and Responses to Sea-Level Rise: A Global Analysis of the SRES Scenarios over the Twenty-First Century.” Phiosophical Translation of The Royal Society, 364(1), 2006: 1073-1095. Otten, C. J., Bakker, Pieter And Meijer, Martijn. Reduction of Hurricane Impace by RE- Creation of Marshlands and Barrier Islands. Terra et Aqua, 2006, No. 105: 20-31. RMS. 1953 U.K. Floods: 50-Year Retrospective. Risk Management Solutions Inc, 2003. Wamsley, V. Ty, Cialone, A.Mary, Westerink, Joanness and Smith, M. Jane (2009). Influence of Marsh Restoration and Degragation on Storm Surge and Waves. ERDC/CHL CHETN-I-77. Wamsley, V. Ty, Cialone, A. Mary, Smith, M. Jane, Atkinson, H. John and Rosati, D. Julie. “The Potential of Wetlands in Reducing Storm Surge.” Journal of Ocean Engineering, 37(1), 2010: 59-69. Read More