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Suspicious Samples- Statistics Project - Coursework Example

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In this selection, all cycles selected ended up being those that had resulted in no pregnancy. Just how possible is that? We take some little insights from the theory of…
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Suspicious Samples- Statistics Project
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Download file to see previous pages To determine whether this particular outcome is possible, we need to establish the probability distribution that the outcomes we obtained follow, and rework a theoretical model that follows a similar trend.
Essentially, determination of whether an ART cycle will result in a pregnancy or not presents us with two possible outcomes: yes or no. In addition, whenever an individual is picked from among other potential members of the sample, this individual is unlikely to be picked on a subsequent trial. This is much like the case of tossing a fair coin several times, but with the exception that individuals leave the non-sampled population once included in the trial. Such trials follow the Poisson distribution (Letkowski, 2). Since each trial is not influenced by the previous trial in any way, including by way of outcome obtained, this distribution is discrete.
We now reflect upon the available information o establish how possible it is to come up with ten subsequent trials whose outcomes are absolutely similar despite there being competing possibilities of outcomes. The Poisson distribution follows the formula:
In the above equation, the expected value of x is λ. Using this formula, we can work out the probability of obtaining a specific outcome. In this case, this corresponds to the outcomes that all did not involve a pregnancy. We observe the following:
1) From the provided statistics, the average rate of occurrence of an ART cycle without a pregnancy corresponds to the percentage of such a happening. This is given as 66.5 = 0.665. This figure is supposedly uniform across members of productive females’ age generations. This corresponds to our λ.
This result indicates an extremely rare probability, but one that is clearly achievable. For comparison purposes, we may want to evaluate how this probability compares with that of getting pregnant from an ART.
We notice that there is a decline in the total probability of selecting in ...Download file to see next pagesRead More
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